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I could have won BGT tonight!

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  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    I will repeat, in case you missed it, that hands involving betting action that reach showdown are much much more likely to have equities that run close - that is to say if a player did not ‘have an interest in the hand’ they would have folded before showdown.

    You can’t just ignore all hands that don’t reach showdown, you have a fundamental bias in your sample.

    I’m sorry if this comes across as arrogant or patronising but it really is a simple concept that you should spend some time on if you’re not understanding.

    Quite clearly a game where you can use any 2 cards from 4 will generate many more possible equity shifts when bets are called. The game does this naturally, it doesn’t need a site to generate specific runouts.

    In a freeroll you’ll likely see more showdowns because people are happy to throw their chips in, I’m not sure that showing a hand where A7 loses to T4 helps your case in any way.
  • mumsiemumsie Member Posts: 7,990
    bbMike said:



    just in case there was any doubt

    @bbmike , how did you manage to get the street info, did you sift through manually or have you another way of accessing the info ?




  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    mumsie said:

    @bbmike , how did you manage to get the street info, did you sift through manually or have you another way of accessing the info ?

    yeah there’s a couple of ways you can do this, will pm you
  • TheWaddyTheWaddy Member Posts: 1,592
    bbMike said:

    I will repeat, in case you missed it, that hands involving betting action that reach showdown are much much more likely to have equities that run close - that is to say if a player did not ‘have an interest in the hand’ they would have folded before showdown.

    You can’t just ignore all hands that don’t reach showdown, you have a fundamental bias in your sample.

    I’m sorry if this comes across as arrogant or patronising but it really is a simple concept that you should spend some time on if you’re not understanding.

    Quite clearly a game where you can use any 2 cards from 4 will generate many more possible equity shifts when bets are called. The game does this naturally, it doesn’t need a site to generate specific runouts.

    In a freeroll you’ll likely see more showdowns because people are happy to throw their chips in, I’m not sure that showing a hand where A7 loses to T4 helps your case in any way.

    Im quite happy for a 10 or a 4 to hit, the odds are not that great. Once again, you choose to ignore THE MANNER of the wins and not just that 10 4 beats A7... this was just the way i got eliminated, a call that is never going to lose there, id already put my laptop to the side... would i prepare to leave a real table on seeing what i was up against? Nooooo....the other 3 hands in 19, people can indeed just throw their chips in, but boy, what excitement they got from that in these hands! No pairs here, just pure massive flops, massive swings.

    Im guessing if you were at the WSOP and these 3 hands came up in the first 19, u wudnt feel this was anything unusual. It would be. It would be on Youtube.
  • TheWaddyTheWaddy Member Posts: 1,592
    Several players who backed the magic decks to the hilt over the last 2yrs or so, have appeared to have left the site.

    Could you explain why a player choosing a site where he feels the games are 'soft', no longer plays there?

    There is clearly one reason: he is not making money... in soft games.... over a long period of time....

    Please feel free to offer another explanation, allbeit there is only ever one reason a winning player leaves a soft game.... if he knows the game is soft, he will stick around in the short term knowing he will win eventually..... but what if he feels its not going to change?
  • goldongoldon Member Posts: 9,042
    So who would you rather have in your shop. !

    The shoplifters.

    The Browsers.

    The Buyers.

    The O.A.P. Security Guard.
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    Before we run off on the tangent of whether there are crazy live hands (there are, many are posted and we’ve seen a few from the recent SPTs).

    I just want to check that you understand this bit and its impact on your observations.
    bbMike said:

    hands involving betting action that reach showdown are much much more likely to have equities that run close - that is to say if a player did not ‘have an interest in the hand’ they would have folded before showdown.

    It’s quite important.
  • TheWaddyTheWaddy Member Posts: 1,592
    Many call with 'extremely little interest' in the hand within the context of the game they are playing. Its these hands that are noticeable, not the close run flops.

    If you would like to re-post ones from the SPT, where they are truly amazing hands, i would be up for seeing them. Ive yet to see a single one. Never mind 3 in the opening 13 hands (you see more hands online... hmmm 13)

    88 v 66 and a 6 hitting river, or AK v AJ with a jack hitting, is a standard and not amazing hand before you reach for those two..... If we can see any that are on a par with the 3 i posted, feel free... but you wont find any...

    AK v AJ where a king flops with 2 low cards.... and the AJ ending up winning, if you can find any of them from the SPT, id love to see just a single one... in fact if its all the same thing online and off, you should be able to post several.
  • goldongoldon Member Posts: 9,042
    ...
    goldon said:

    So who would you rather have in your shop. !

    The shoplifters.

    The Browsers.

    The Buyers.

    The O.A.P. Security Guard.

    Would that be the Customer Complainer.....or...... The Dodgy Shop Owner selling shoddy goods. only asking. hic!
  • goldongoldon Member Posts: 9,042
    Search and rescue coming to your aid....... I know you'd rather do without it. Hic!


  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    edited October 2023
    TheWaddy said:

    in fact if its all the same thing online and off, you should be able to post several.

    This critical thinking malarky is difficult isn't it? You know, and I know, that there's an availability bias here. Not only do you play many more hands online in an evening than you do live, but every hand is logged and available to you to bring out at will. Live poker isn't live chess, the moves aren't recorded and entered into a database, we're relying on someone taking a photo and making it available.
    TheWaddy said:

    If you would like to re-post ones from the SPT, where they are truly amazing hands, i would be up for seeing them. Ive yet to see a single one....

    How about, having Aces, flopping a set and losing? Surely an enhanced deck if ever I've seen one.


  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    4 hands played in the Sunday Major Freeroll so far, 3 went all in and to showdown
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    butters08Small blind100.00100.008865.00
    UTRBABYBig blind200.00300.002280.00
    Your hole cards
    • K
    • 4
    dameflopFold
    bbMikeFold
    PopeBrian1Fold
    Kie115Call200.00500.002680.00
    butters08All-in8865.009365.000.00
    UTRBABYFold
    Kie115All-in2680.0012045.000.00
    butters08Unmatched bet6085.005960.006085.00
    butters08Show
    • Q
    • A
    Kie115Show
    • 7
    • J
    Flop
    • 9
    • 2
    • 9
    Turn
    • A
    River
    • A
    butters08WinFull House, Aces and 9s5960.0012045.00
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    bbMikeSit out
    PopeBrian1Big blind200.00200.001555.00
    Kie115Fold
    butters08Fold
    UTRBABYRaise600.00800.003180.00
    dameflopAll-in1300.002100.000.00
    PopeBrian1Fold
    UTRBABYCall700.002800.002480.00
    UTRBABYShow
    • Q
    • 10
    dameflopShow
    • 10
    • K
    Flop
    • 8
    • 7
    • 7
    Turn
    • 4
    River
    • 5
    dameflopWinPair of 7s2800.002800.00
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    Kie115Small blind100.00100.005580.00
    butters08Big blind200.00300.008965.00
    Your hole cards
    • 8
    • K
    UTRBABYFold
    dameflopAll-in2800.003100.000.00
    bbMikeFold
    PopeBrian1All-in1455.004555.000.00
    Kie115Call2700.007255.002880.00
    butters08Fold
    Kie115Show
    • 10
    • K
    dameflopShow
    • 9
    • 9
    PopeBrian1Show
    • A
    • A
    Flop
    • 2
    • 4
    • J
    Turn
    • 5
    River
    • 3
    PopeBrian1WinStraight to the 54565.004565.00
    dameflopWinPair of 9s2690.002690.00
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    No enhancement, no fun for the freeroll players. Would you agree? Seem to be the cleanest runouts I've seen. What's gone wrong?
  • gregkdy82gregkdy82 Member Posts: 530
    @bbMike having shared tables with you plenty on the site and seen you post sensibly on these forums in the past I always thought you seemed a fairly intelligent person. I'm surprised to see you wasting your time with on this buffoonery.
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,717
    gregkdy82 said:

    @bbMike having shared tables with you plenty on the site and seen you post sensibly on these forums in the past I always thought you seemed a fairly intelligent person. I'm surprised to see you wasting your time with on this buffoonery.

    You’re right of course @gregkdy82. I guess I’m over optimistic in expecting to make any headway with people who seem to prefer to live in denial by changing the goalposts every time a contradiction is illuminated, rather than to open their eyes and remove themselves from the misery.

    After the last bout of ‘you never see this’, ‘here it is’, ‘no not that’ etc I won’t be bothering to entertain any more buffoonery.
  • HENDRIK62HENDRIK62 Member Posts: 3,201
    bbMike said:

    Before we run off on the tangent of whether there are crazy live hands (there are, many are posted and we’ve seen a few from the recent SPTs).

    I just want to check that you understand this bit and its impact on your observations.

    bbMike said:

    hands involving betting action that reach showdown are much much more likely to have equities that run close - that is to say if a player did not ‘have an interest in the hand’ they would have folded before showdown.

    It’s quite important.
    Theres no future in highlighting this to him, as Greg has rightly pointed out its a waste of your time.
  • TheWaddyTheWaddy Member Posts: 1,592
    edited October 2023
    I think if hands 'never' won, this would be a silly claim and certainly one ive 'never' said... i think i have plainly said they lose more often than odds dictate. Keep it real. Clearly id make no profit at all, if all hands lost.

    I would though say, it is highly, highly unusual to see 3 hands like this hold online in a short space of time... but you will notice though all in preflop, The AA made a straight and another hand made a full house! Brilliant fun!

    And despite the claims of 'confirmation bias' and 'changing the story', we were talking about the many hands posted from SPT Glasgow this yr, whereas you have managed to find one from Manchester from a year of your choice.

    You may make 'headway' if you kept it real.
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