so turns out my area is one of the very strong tory seats that is at risk of flipping it would be the first time in my life it does if it does. I guess this explains why labour have been campaigning hard here. This area has never been labour its always been tories and now I am seeing window after window flagging labour.
I would like to drastically exagerate and imply the entire area is like a patriotic country at war with labour flags everywhere, but that would be a lie in truth its just like several properties on my road so like 1 in ten or there abouts. but of course many people will be voting without having fliers flags or posters displayed on their windows etc.
Its a shame the odds on skybet only go up to seven seats or more for reform I think they will take 30+ seats.
Well then bet 7+. That way your figure can be 23 + out and you still win.
Actually if you went onto a well known exchange and ignored the market for 1-2 seats which is the almost even money fave and dutched the rest including 0 seats, then any result baring 1 - 2 sees you having a kerching moment.
Its a shame the odds on skybet only go up to seven seats or more for reform I think they will take 30+ seats.
Well then bet 7+. That way your figure can be 23 + out and you still win.
Actually if you went onto a well known exchange and ignored the market for 1-2 seats which is the almost even money fave and dutched the rest including 0 seats, then any result baring 1 - 2 sees you having a kerching moment.
i dont understand spread betting which is why it may make sense to stay away from it, but as i understand it I can lose a lot more then I stake if I am wrong. I like my potential loses to be fixed.
Its a shame the odds on skybet only go up to seven seats or more for reform I think they will take 30+ seats.
Well then bet 7+. That way your figure can be 23 + out and you still win.
Actually if you went onto a well known exchange and ignored the market for 1-2 seats which is the almost even money fave and dutched the rest including 0 seats, then any result baring 1 - 2 sees you having a kerching moment.
i dont understand spread betting which is why it may make sense to stay away from it, but as i understand it I can lose a lot more then I stake if I am wrong. I like my potential loses to be fixed.
Arrrggghhh for the umpteenth time.
This is exchange betting NOT spread betting it's basically fixed odds, all that dutching does is split your total stake accordingly across all your selected outcomes to ensure a profit regardless of which of those outcomes wins. You CANNOT lose more than you stake
So with the current odds if you can back the following
0 seats 3-4 seats 5-6 seats 7+ seats
A £50 dutched stake would pay £22.10, £22.12, £22.06 and £22.14 respectively.
The only way you lose is if the result is 1-2 seats and then you lose your stake.
There are no monsters under the bed, except the Reform party.
I been hearing everywhere that sunuk absolutely and totally anniliated and destroyed Starmer in the debate. I mean Starmer is the better choice but Sunuk is better at spin and debates, its sad but true but it looking very likely we get a tory government again now.
Not everywhere.
The Telegraph, Mail, Express etc said Sunak won. And the Mirror, Guardian etc said Starmer won.
But we knew that was going to happen.
In reality, 2 rather bland politicians drew. The one ahead in the polls is always happy with a draw.
None of Britain’s political leaders have dared to mention the elephant in the room
I been hearing everywhere that sunuk absolutely and totally anniliated and destroyed Starmer in the debate. I mean Starmer is the better choice but Sunuk is better at spin and debates, its sad but true but it looking very likely we get a tory government again now.
Not everywhere.
The Telegraph, Mail, Express etc said Sunak won. And the Mirror, Guardian etc said Starmer won.
But we knew that was going to happen.
In reality, 2 rather bland politicians drew. The one ahead in the polls is always happy with a draw.
None of Britain’s political leaders have dared to mention the elephant in the room
Good article. There are 2 Public Sector Pension Schemes that are even more generous than those mentioned:-
1. Police. Policemen pay a lot of money into their Pension. Nevertheless, it is incredibly generous. There was a time when being a Policeman was a very physical job. Which is why the Pension Scheme was there to encourage Policemen to retire after 25 (or at most 30) years. But times change. People no longer regularly pursue just 1 career. And there are a whole variety of jobs in the Police that are less physically demanding that 50 years ago.
2. MPs. They have the most generous Pension of all. But most of you already guessed that, right?
There is absolutely no incentive for any politician to spend £Billions we have not got to save money in 30 years' time. Simply because it is not just Politicians that think short-term. So do voters. Anyone proposing this would get wiped out at an election. Voters will not accept tax rises now to fund pay rises now to solve a Pension crisis by 2060
It is easy to blame Politicians. The sad truth is that it is voters who stop politicians trying to do things that would benefit the country. Final Salary Pensions is an important one. So is our future relationship with the EU.
Cannot expect Politicians to adopt policies that would cost them an election.
I been hearing everywhere that sunuk absolutely and totally anniliated and destroyed Starmer in the debate. I mean Starmer is the better choice but Sunuk is better at spin and debates, its sad but true but it looking very likely we get a tory government again now.
Not everywhere.
The Telegraph, Mail, Express etc said Sunak won. And the Mirror, Guardian etc said Starmer won.
But we knew that was going to happen.
In reality, 2 rather bland politicians drew. The one ahead in the polls is always happy with a draw.
None of Britain’s political leaders have dared to mention the elephant in the room
Good article. There are 2 Public Sector Pension Schemes that are even more generous than those mentioned:-
1. Police. Policemen pay a lot of money into their Pension. Nevertheless, it is incredibly generous. There was a time when being a Policeman was a very physical job. Which is why the Pension Scheme was there to encourage Policemen to retire after 25 (or at most 30) years. But times change. People no longer regularly pursue just 1 career. And there are a whole variety of jobs in the Police that are less physically demanding that 50 years ago.
2. MPs. They have the most generous Pension of all. But most of you already guessed that, right?
There is absolutely no incentive for any politician to spend £Billions we have not got to save money in 30 years' time. Simply because it is not just Politicians that think short-term. So do voters. Anyone proposing this would get wiped out at an election. Voters will not accept tax rises now to fund pay rises now to solve a Pension crisis by 2060
It is easy to blame Politicians. The sad truth is that it is voters who stop politicians trying to do things that would benefit the country. Final Salary Pensions is an important one. So is our future relationship with the EU.
Cannot expect Politicians to adopt policies that would cost them an election.
I dont disagree with that. It looks like a gloomy future.
This has always been a problem. For all political parties.
But this current Govt have taken it to a whole new level. They are not content with just providing answers to questions that were not asked. Pretty much everyone does that.
It is the arrogance that demands that it is the Conservative Party that sets the Agenda. Not any other Party. Not Journalists. And not the Voters. Not by some sort of underhand action. Stating quite openly that they have no intention of providing any sort of answer to any question that they don't like.
People organising their campaign need to get real. Are they going to lose this election? Almost certainly. Will at least half of their Seats be lost? Extremely likely.
That should not be their primary focus. There is a small chance that this election will herald the end of the Conservative Party as the Main Party of the Right.
The nightmare scenario for them is this. Firstly, that they get less votes than Reform. Unlikely. But not impossible. (In every scenario they get way more seats than Reform). And secondly, that they are replaced as the Opposition by the Lib Dems. Again, unlikely. But not impossible. And thirdly, that they drop to 3rd (or worse) in hundreds of seats. Which, in these days of tactical voting, makes it far, far harder to regain those seats.
I do not like the Conservative Party. But I would much rather they were the option on the Right than Reform. Or some form of Farage/Braverman/Badenoch alliance.
It is not for Sunak to proclaim what the voters should judge him on. The voters are the ones that decide that. And the key drivers will be these:-
1. The economy 2. This Govts record in the last 2 years 3. This Govt's record in the last 5 & 14 years 4. Whether the electorate believe that Labour offer more hope for the next 5 years than the current Govt
Sometimes Govts run out of steam after a long period in power. Think Major in the 1990s. Or Brown in 2010. Where there was a period in Opposition. And, after a period there, back in Govt.
That should be easily achievable by the Tory Party. Thing is, they are not managing to be just a bit lacklustre. They have spent the first 2 weeks of this campaign damaging their entire future.
Comments
I would like to drastically exagerate and imply the entire area is like a patriotic country at war with labour flags everywhere, but that would be a lie in truth its just like several properties on my road so like 1 in ten or there abouts. but of course many people will be voting without having fliers flags or posters displayed on their windows etc.
Can there really be that many terwats in this country? Come on.
https://x.com/holte/status/1799143864873165226
https://x.com/Zero_4/status/1799130725968650385
Actually if you went onto a well known exchange and ignored the market for 1-2 seats which is the almost even money fave and dutched the rest including 0 seats, then any result baring 1 - 2 sees you having a kerching moment.
This is exchange betting NOT spread betting it's basically fixed odds, all that dutching does is split your total stake accordingly across all your selected outcomes to ensure a profit regardless of which of those outcomes wins. You CANNOT lose more than you stake
So with the current odds if you can back the following
0 seats
3-4 seats
5-6 seats
7+ seats
A £50 dutched stake would pay £22.10, £22.12, £22.06 and £22.14 respectively.
The only way you lose is if the result is 1-2 seats and then you lose your stake.
There are no monsters under the bed, except the Reform party.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/public-sector-pensions-threaten-bankrupt-060100328.html
1. Police. Policemen pay a lot of money into their Pension. Nevertheless, it is incredibly generous. There was a time when being a Policeman was a very physical job. Which is why the Pension Scheme was there to encourage Policemen to retire after 25 (or at most 30) years. But times change. People no longer regularly pursue just 1 career. And there are a whole variety of jobs in the Police that are less physically demanding that 50 years ago.
2. MPs. They have the most generous Pension of all. But most of you already guessed that, right?
There is absolutely no incentive for any politician to spend £Billions we have not got to save money in 30 years' time. Simply because it is not just Politicians that think short-term. So do voters. Anyone proposing this would get wiped out at an election. Voters will not accept tax rises now to fund pay rises now to solve a Pension crisis by 2060
It is easy to blame Politicians. The sad truth is that it is voters who stop politicians trying to do things that would benefit the country. Final Salary Pensions is an important one. So is our future relationship with the EU.
Cannot expect Politicians to adopt policies that would cost them an election.
It looks like a gloomy future.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tory-press-know-influence-is-waning-but-tread-careful-line-before-election/ar-BB1nTror?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=4c136b79447a45a4b7462e544e7d3227&ei=19#fullscreen
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/this-is-ridiculous-furious-sky-news-row-erupts-as-host-loses-it-over-tory-stitch-up/ar-BB1nUy9A?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=3098c606677149dfb5c707065c19f4f3&ei=63#fullscreen
Jeez, what an absolute POS.
Who in their right mind would vote for him?
But this current Govt have taken it to a whole new level. They are not content with just providing answers to questions that were not asked. Pretty much everyone does that.
It is the arrogance that demands that it is the Conservative Party that sets the Agenda. Not any other Party. Not Journalists. And not the Voters. Not by some sort of underhand action. Stating quite openly that they have no intention of providing any sort of answer to any question that they don't like.
People organising their campaign need to get real. Are they going to lose this election? Almost certainly. Will at least half of their Seats be lost? Extremely likely.
That should not be their primary focus. There is a small chance that this election will herald the end of the Conservative Party as the Main Party of the Right.
The nightmare scenario for them is this. Firstly, that they get less votes than Reform. Unlikely. But not impossible. (In every scenario they get way more seats than Reform). And secondly, that they are replaced as the Opposition by the Lib Dems. Again, unlikely. But not impossible. And thirdly, that they drop to 3rd (or worse) in hundreds of seats. Which, in these days of tactical voting, makes it far, far harder to regain those seats.
I do not like the Conservative Party. But I would much rather they were the option on the Right than Reform. Or some form of Farage/Braverman/Badenoch alliance.
It is not for Sunak to proclaim what the voters should judge him on. The voters are the ones that decide that. And the key drivers will be these:-
1. The economy
2. This Govts record in the last 2 years
3. This Govt's record in the last 5 & 14 years
4. Whether the electorate believe that Labour offer more hope for the next 5 years than the current Govt
Sometimes Govts run out of steam after a long period in power. Think Major in the 1990s. Or Brown in 2010. Where there was a period in Opposition. And, after a period there, back in Govt.
That should be easily achievable by the Tory Party. Thing is, they are not managing to be just a bit lacklustre. They have spent the first 2 weeks of this campaign damaging their entire future.
They need to read the room.