You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
Options
IMPORTANT; HERE IS THE GRAND NATIONAL WINNER!!
vaigret
Member Posts: 16,313
contained in a little story.
POSTMASTER VIC VENTURI, a WEST END ROCKER ACCORDING TO PETE went to PLANET OF SOUND ON HIS OWN BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE DEEP PURPLE at THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, KILLYGLEN through the MIDNIGHT HAZE and the ORGANISED CONFUSION.
HELLO BUD, WIERD AL, SWING BILL, RARE BOB AND GILES CROSS JUNIOR of CHICAGO GREY SYNCHRONISED IN COMPLIANCE with ALFA BEAT whose SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM was ALWAYS WAINING at the NEPTUNE COLLONGES club in CALGARY BAY.
Meanwhile SUNNYHILL BOY, with he's LE BEAU BAI and his MON MOME eating SEABASS, BLACK APALACHI TREACLE followed by a CAPPA BLEU at the ARBOR SUPREME in BALLABRIGGS knew the STATE OF PLAY with THARAWAAT, QUISCOVER FONTAINE and TATENEN because he was ALWAYS RIGHT.
The moral of the story is that i am always right.
Father V
POSTMASTER VIC VENTURI, a WEST END ROCKER ACCORDING TO PETE went to PLANET OF SOUND ON HIS OWN BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE DEEP PURPLE at THE MIDNIGHT CLUB, KILLYGLEN through the MIDNIGHT HAZE and the ORGANISED CONFUSION.
HELLO BUD, WIERD AL, SWING BILL, RARE BOB AND GILES CROSS JUNIOR of CHICAGO GREY SYNCHRONISED IN COMPLIANCE with ALFA BEAT whose SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM was ALWAYS WAINING at the NEPTUNE COLLONGES club in CALGARY BAY.
Meanwhile SUNNYHILL BOY, with he's LE BEAU BAI and his MON MOME eating SEABASS, BLACK APALACHI TREACLE followed by a CAPPA BLEU at the ARBOR SUPREME in BALLABRIGGS knew the STATE OF PLAY with THARAWAAT, QUISCOVER FONTAINE and TATENEN because he was ALWAYS RIGHT.
The moral of the story is that i am always right.
Father V
Comments
killyglen most likely chance of winner, going great last year before falling a few out, connections buzzing about him, missed fancy ante post prices but ill be waiting to the day anyway, 16's now, hopefully will be in and around same come sat mornin, meets almost every trend over past 10 years, if i werent such a lazy get id put them up
the rest as e/w savers, trends met also on most parts, chicagos only real negative (apart from tendancy to be held up and might need luck in running) is the fact he is Grey ; )
Giles Cross must be there or thereabouts if he takes to Paddy Brennan
It's 10/1 now! I got it at 25/1 yesterday!
always right found the heavy too much in Haydock trial but has solid form good/soft, interesting
Bellpoker, I disagree with you re Giles Cross if ground heavy. I would go for his conqueror in the Welsh National Le Beau Bai.
You are right re West End Rocker, I backed him last year after seeing him win a Warwick race in deep mud and the conditions will be well in his favour this year. Also he has been laid out for this and I like the fact Wayne Hutchinson rides him instead of Choc.
With regards Always Right I now worry that the heavy over 4miles might be too much, however I just got the feeling he wasnt 100% fit for Haydock Trail. He was waltzing up to them before going out like a light two out. that usually means didnt get trip, yet he has won over 4miles, or one race short of full fitness and the trial has brought him on. It's anybody's guess. LOL
i think thats an argument best kept if it comes up heavy, which i a) sincerely hope not i do not want another red marauder race and b) would have to ditch my initial selections and side with all 3 - GC, LBB and WER.
but were talking rain of monsoon proportions and it probably wont happen and i probably wont have to
do we have any liverpuddlians on board with weather updates?
That's purely down to the chances of soft/heavy going. It NEEDS it. Grrrr I backed it for the Welsh National and did the stupid thing of counting my winnings 3 out.
What is your reading of the distance and heavy going re Le Beau Bai 10-3/33-1 and Giles Cross 10-1 and 14-1 battle . Which do you think should come out on top or is it too close to call and back both secenario. I fancy more value in Le Beau Bai but would like your opinions.
Father V
le beau bai far better value @ 40's for me
giles cross 25/1 the dude above got is a stonking price considering 10/1 places now, but its only (imo) guranteeing him a run, its not guaranteeing a victory!!
he'll go okay on soft as i said but both would relish a bog
thing with a bog is , it will inconvenience others and like the red maraunder race as I said and you'll know about too well Fr V, we'll only get a handful home, and these two should you'd imagine be bang there.
seperating the two, giles cross better jimper and more genuine, though like at chepstow, you kind of get the inkling that le beau bai will outstay him
BUT..........!!!! (and im getting the feeling ive largely contributed to this/even worse started it!!!) theres gonna have to be a lorra lorra rain for me to consider either (youre talking alot more than thats fallen so far)
i wouldnt back giles cross @ 12's good/soft , or even soft, as ive question marks about a few others gewtting home ahead of him who can handle that also, if it came up proper heavy id hammer him anything over 6/1 , hammer both and in the rv f/c also!!! ; )
It shows how difficult this years race is.
As far as I can see there are 5 horses tied together through the Welsh National 2010 and 2011runnings /Haydock Trial form that stand out above the others who ran in those races. They are LBB, Giles Cross, Synchronised, Cappa Bleu and Neptunes Collonges. to pick one of them is hard enough without forgetting the other 35.
Synchronised and GC have both improved but GC only has 5lb pull on 2010 Welsh running. GC has 7lb pull with Le Beau Bai on 2011 running. All like soft /heavy ground although the quicker it is I feel would be better for Synchronised. I think i can disregard Cappa Bleu as only has 2lb pull with GC on 2010 running and has gone backwards while GC improved, ok ground might be better for him but distance is untried.
Now Neptune, well he is 5lb worse off with GC on trial running when GC beat him on heavy and I think he ran a he ll uva race that day. I cant see him repeating it and I take it Ruby had choice of riding him.
So summing up.
Le Beau Bai is best value especially if a bog. other wise back Synchronised or GC.
Not bad thats five horses knocked down to 3. Now to start on other 35. LOL