I dont fancy Mon Mome, but why I ask, he's 6lb lower than when he won the National. I dont think Seabass will get trip, plus Ruby disregarded and I dont think Katie is going to make history. Similar with Nina and Organised confusion who wont beat Seabass. Of the ones at the top of the weights Synchronised stands out so far I cannot see Ballabriggs, Wierd Al, Alfa Beat, Planet of sound or Deep Purple beating him on current terms. Neither should Calgary Bay or Black Apalachi or junior but not discounting them yet.
haaha down to 27 indeed. i spent hours picking out my 4 on trends (again im a lazy get and cant be bothered puttin them up but theres a thing called the interent dont ya know, look 'em up!! ) but the grounds a big sticking (excuse the pun) point
im already goin outta ma mind here picking the races from the rest of the weeks card, the aintree bowl in particular. firstly it was burton port, then saw barrys left him for Riverside, then noticed neither have had 10 career chase starts so both scrubbed, gonna be between medermit and Hunt ball for me, just cant decide. Medermit up in trip and my goodness Hunt Ball could be absolutely anything
Cant have any out of the handicap so thats got rid of any of those that might sneak in which takes me to Hello Bud. Whilst I fancy Black Appalachi at 13 cannot fancy a 14 year old. Gets you into trouble dont you know. Cant see Vic Venturi, Tharawaat winning unless very heavy and that suits GC as well, so no. In Compliance , Viking Blonde or Swing bill need a lot less weight to have a chance against past conquerors. Postmaster and Quiscover Fontaine looks out of their depth even with low weight and cant see Midnight Haze doing a Mr Frisk.
thats down to eighteen and I wont get rid of Killyglen, becauseicouldntsee, State of Play-the perenial placer who reminds me of The Pilgarlic or always Waining who loves Aintree.
That leaves me the middle ones.
Cant see Ruby or AP getting their choices wrong so out go Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillboy, The Midnight Club. Love Tatanen as a horse but not over 4 miles +. Cant have shakalakboomboom who is one pound worse off with Calgary Bay. Cannot see On His Own beating either Treacle or Black Applachi so thats him out.
Chicago Grey looks like he has lost appetite so thats him out. Treacle , his form let down in Irish National
But now I am really struggling to get it down further.
14 Left in and reasons why
Synchronised-7-1-well handicapped and if he gets round will win. Price short enough though. Calgary Bay-33-1- heart decision and just incase Synchronised falls Black Appalachi-33-1-Sound form and 3lb better than 2nd in 2010. but 2 years older. hmmmm Junior-11-1-the story horse, cheltanham Ascot, National Winner? West End Rocker -10-1-stable confidence, immpressive Becher winner, According to Pete -28-1 - ran tremendous racers this year Always Right - 28-1looked like he would have waltzed past Giles Cross and if palate op has worked well he will win Rare Bob -40-1- well handicapped with West End Rocker , Killyglen -16-1-6lb less than last year when he looked likely winner. Will he remeber experience as good or bad ? Becauseicouldntsee- 20-1-ran well at Cheltenham and 2nd behind ante post fav Prince de Beucherne Le Beau Bai-33-1 -if it rains a lot between now at saturday must be backed State of Play- 50-1 -perenial placer is it his turn to win.probably not Always Waining-40-1 -Loves the place, probably last year his best chance if he got in race Giles Cross -10-1 -stand out at bottom of handicap, pity no o'reagan
My NAP is BecauseICouldn'tSee. Beautiful horse and now Prince De Beauchene is out he has a great chance. Still available at 20/1 or 25/1 depending on where you bet. I'm also backing Mon Mome as my each way selection. I know it is unlikely to win 3 years after its first victory but is a horse that has had problems so if it is over them then that may counteract the extra age. Its also lightly raced so must still have some go in its legs. Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
Thanks joesman and bellpoker, It shows how difficult this years race is. As far as I can see there are 5 horses tied together through the Welsh National 2010 and 2011runnings /Haydock Trial form that stand out above the others who ran in those races. They are LBB, Giles Cross, Synchronised, Cappa Bleu and Neptunes Collonges. to pick one of them is hard enough without forgetting the other 35. Synchronised and GC have both improved but GC only has 5lb pull on 2010 Welsh running. GC has 7lb pull with Le Beau Bai on 2011 running. All like soft /heavy ground although the quicker it is I feel would be better for Synchronised. I think i can disregard Cappa Bleu as only has 2lb pull with GC on 2010 running and has gone backwards while GC improved, ok ground might be better for him but distance is untried. Now Neptune, well he is 5lb worse off with GC on trial running when GC beat him on heavy and I think he ran a he ll uva race that day. I cant see him repeating it and I take it Ruby had choice of riding him. So summing up. Le Beau Bai is best value especially if a bog. other wise back Synchronised or GC. Not bad thats five horses knocked down to 3. Now to start on other 35. LOL Posted by vaigret
I quite fancy Cappa Bleu(so i'm biased!),but all Cappa Bleu has done this year is improve to the standard of what connections obviously thought of him the other year when he won at Cheltenham.Will have to have a bit on Giles Cross after backing him all year,and my other 2 horses are West end rocker and Always Waining.Good luck Father Vaigret and all who have a bet.
Still cant see a winner outside my 14 which i have now cut down some more although not with great confidence. I just can't back 14 horses LOL.
Have cut out
West End Rocker-needed to have a race this year. Rare Bob because if I think WER isnt going to win he wont either. Calgary Bay, cant let my heart rule my head State of Play-might get placed but wont win
im backing follow the plan tmoz at massive prices ew and ive also done same as last year won in the dark 25s ew ,,w/o big bucks could easily go off 25s with BB on the day,,,lumping on fingal bay and not often a forte of mine i have bumpers im lumping on population spirit of of shankley in same race,,and in the mares bumper fickle fortune,,and in the hcap hurdles mcains DESERT CRY i think the cheltenham run was a lot better than it looks and could go off at a big price and im sure i will post a few more
having watched reruns of last 2 nationals recently black apalachi ran well and killy glen but needs good ground as bell as stated also the midnight club ran well backed 4 all ready but im holding off cause i think 1 bookie will go first 6 on the day
having watched reruns of last 2 nationals recently black apalachi ran well and killy glen but needs good ground as bell as stated also the midnight club ran well backed 4 all ready but im holding off cause i think 1 bookie will go first 6 on the day Posted by andybuck
midnight club ran a cracker last year, he gets badly hampered (think actually when killyglen falls) and cant get a good rythym going again but runs on, again softer the better and was hardly knocked about in March on the friday
im backing follow the plan tmoz at massive prices ew and ive also done same as last year won in the dark 25s ew ,,w/o big bucks could easily go off 25s with BB on the day,,,lumping on fingal bay and not often a forte of mine i have bumpers im lumping on population spirit of of shankley in same race,,and in the mares bumper fickle fortune,,and in the hcap hurdles mcains DESERT CRY i think the cheltenham run was a lot better than it looks and could go off at a big price and im sure i will post a few more Posted by andybuck
If u read my post regarding Desret Cry's Cheltenham run, u will know I'm fancying this majorly if it runs. Needs a fast pace though. Hoping the fact it's a conditional jockeys race will ensure this
Still cant see a winner outside my 14 which i have now cut down some more although not with great confidence. I just can't back 14 horses LOL. Have cut out West End Rocker-needed to have a race this year. Rare Bob because if I think WER isnt going to win he wont either. Calgary Bay, cant let my heart rule my head State of Play-might get placed but wont win Down to 10 Posted by vaigret
Hi Father V, not noticed any comment regarding Deep Purple?? What's your gut feeling regarding me bagging several 'bags' from Junior?? Let's assume it takes to the fences lol. And don't u think the price of GC is now ridiculous?? Seen 9/1 for it now in a place.
In Response to Re: IMPORTANT; HERE IS THE GRAND NATIONAL WINNER!! : If u read my post regarding Desret Cry's Cheltenham run, u will know I'm fancying this majorly if it runs. Needs a fast pace though. Hoping the fact it's a conditional jockeys race will ensure this Posted by joesman1
i remebered you wrote about that and rewatched the race and i concur like a different animal in latter half of race
In Response to Re: IMPORTANT; HERE IS THE GRAND NATIONAL WINNER!! : i remebered you wrote about that and rewatched the race and i concur like a different animal in latter half of race Posted by BELL_POKER
Cheers Mr Bell, . . . Don't take all the early prices Sat morning before I get up lol
hes not on my shortlist of 4, and given the ballabriggs form from winning kim muir year before national and would prefer meself if they kept him for this next year, but in saying that does anybody else think sunnyhillboy has gone dangerously under the radar???
what do any becauseicouldntsee backers think of this one, considering your pick was travelling like a dream throughout (ran a fantastic race i must add) but got outstayed plain and simple?
hes not on my shortlist of 4, and given the ballabriggs form from winning kim muir year before national and would prefer meself if they kept him for this next year, but in saying that does anybody else think sunnyhillboy has gone dangerously under the radar??? what do any becauseicouldntsee backers think of this one, considering your pick was travelling like a dream throughout (ran a fantastic race i must add) but got outstayed plain and simple? Posted by BELL_POKER
Meant the early prices on Desert Cry, I'm hoping it will be 16/1 plus, and I'm sure there are plenty of shrewdies out there gonna be galloping it up
Thanks for the tips, will certainly be looking at Desert Cry. Mares bumper I strongly fancy Call me a star, did it last time when it got badly hampered and still won.
joesman, I dismissed Deep Puple early on as only gets 7lbs from very good Gold Cup winner. As to giles Cross price , yes all the value has gone, thats why i have already got rid of West End Rocker. however havnt chucked out giles Cross yet and he might go back out a shade or two when jo publics money hits synchronised.
Already backed becauseicouldntsee; and Junior when Idoruko Road franked form. He is definitely the story of the race and wouldnt put anybody off lumping on, the Pipes also know how to get one ready For National.
As for The Midnight club, got to give Ruby some credit, if he picked On his Own , The midnight club aint going to win.
Comments
I dont fancy Mon Mome, but why I ask, he's 6lb lower than when he won the National.
I dont think Seabass will get trip, plus Ruby disregarded and I dont think Katie is going to make history. Similar with Nina and Organised confusion who wont beat Seabass.
Of the ones at the top of the weights Synchronised stands out so far I cannot see Ballabriggs, Wierd Al, Alfa Beat, Planet of sound or Deep Purple beating him on current terms. Neither should Calgary Bay or Black Apalachi or junior but not discounting them yet.
phew Im now down to 27.
im already goin outta ma mind here picking the races from the rest of the weeks card, the aintree bowl in particular. firstly it was burton port, then saw barrys left him for Riverside, then noticed neither have had 10 career chase starts so both scrubbed, gonna be between medermit and Hunt ball for me, just cant decide. Medermit up in trip and my goodness Hunt Ball could be absolutely anything
Im sticking with hunt Ball until at least it loses. Even then I ve have trouble leaving it.
Now to knock some more off.
father V
As already said Giles Cross stand out down here.
Cant have any out of the handicap so thats got rid of any of those that might sneak in which takes me to Hello Bud. Whilst I fancy Black Appalachi at 13 cannot fancy a 14 year old. Gets you into trouble dont you know. Cant see Vic Venturi, Tharawaat winning unless very heavy and that suits GC as well, so no. In Compliance , Viking Blonde or Swing bill need a lot less weight to have a chance against past conquerors. Postmaster and Quiscover Fontaine looks out of their depth even with low weight and cant see Midnight Haze doing a Mr Frisk.
thats down to eighteen and I wont get rid of Killyglen, becauseicouldntsee, State of Play-the perenial placer who reminds me of The Pilgarlic or always Waining who loves Aintree.
That leaves me the middle ones.
Cant see Ruby or AP getting their choices wrong so out go Arbor Supreme, Sunnyhillboy, The Midnight Club. Love Tatanen as a horse but not over 4 miles +. Cant have shakalakboomboom who is one pound worse off with Calgary Bay. Cannot see On His Own beating either Treacle or Black Applachi so thats him out.
More work to do
Chicago Grey looks like he has lost appetite so thats him out. Treacle , his form let down in Irish National
But now I am really struggling to get it down further.
14 Left in and reasons why
Synchronised-7-1-well handicapped and if he gets round will win. Price short enough though.
Calgary Bay-33-1- heart decision and just incase Synchronised falls
Black Appalachi-33-1-Sound form and 3lb better than 2nd in 2010. but 2 years older. hmmmm
Junior-11-1-the story horse, cheltanham Ascot, National Winner?
West End Rocker -10-1-stable confidence, immpressive Becher winner,
According to Pete -28-1 - ran tremendous racers this year
Always Right - 28-1looked like he would have waltzed past Giles Cross and if palate op has worked well he will win
Rare Bob -40-1- well handicapped with West End Rocker ,
Killyglen -16-1-6lb less than last year when he looked likely winner. Will he remeber experience as good or bad ?
Becauseicouldntsee- 20-1-ran well at Cheltenham and 2nd behind ante post fav Prince de Beucherne
Le Beau Bai-33-1 -if it rains a lot between now at saturday must be backed
State of Play- 50-1 -perenial placer is it his turn to win.probably not
Always Waining-40-1 -Loves the place, probably last year his best chance if he got in race
Giles Cross -10-1 -stand out at bottom of handicap, pity no o'reagan
Comments help please to narrow it further
Best wishes. Shaun the Villa fan in Bham
Still cant see a winner outside my 14 which i have now cut down some more although not with great confidence. I just can't back 14 horses LOL.
Have cut out
West End Rocker-needed to have a race this year.
Rare Bob because if I think WER isnt going to win he wont either.
Calgary Bay, cant let my heart rule my head
State of Play-might get placed but wont win
Down to 10
Hi Father V, not noticed any comment regarding Deep Purple?? What's your gut feeling regarding me bagging several 'bags' from Junior?? Let's assume it takes to the fences lol. And don't u think the price of GC is now ridiculous?? Seen 9/1 for it now in a place.
what do any becauseicouldntsee backers think of this one, considering your pick was travelling like a dream throughout (ran a fantastic race i must add) but got outstayed plain and simple?
Thanks for the tips, will certainly be looking at Desert Cry. Mares bumper I strongly fancy Call me a star, did it last time when it got badly hampered and still won.
joesman, I dismissed Deep Puple early on as only gets 7lbs from very good Gold Cup winner. As to giles Cross price , yes all the value has gone, thats why i have already got rid of West End Rocker. however havnt chucked out giles Cross yet and he might go back out a shade or two when jo publics money hits synchronised.
Already backed becauseicouldntsee; and Junior when Idoruko Road franked form. He is definitely the story of the race and wouldnt put anybody off lumping on, the Pipes also know how to get one ready For National.
As for The Midnight club, got to give Ruby some credit, if he picked On his Own , The midnight club aint going to win.
Father V