Oh well we live to fight another day. lost a packet on the fav. in the 3.35 Newbury. Had a saver on Sir Dancealot to beat the fav. in f/c. Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way L 18th Aug Ripon 13:05 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y - Each Way 7/1 5. Related
8/1 E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places W 18th Aug Newbury 13:25 EVENT 1m 5f 61y - Each Way 3. Hamada
5/2 E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places W 18th Aug Newmarket 13:45 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y - Each Way 4. Rebel Streak
Well we come to the last day at York and it would have been a pretty disastrous Festival if I hadnt of hit the getting out stakes on the first three days. Winner and Forecast in last race on Wed, Winner at 14-1 in last race on Thursday and winner and forecast Friday . PHEW No coincidence that I am going for late afternoon races here.
Here goes;-
iiii - YORK 3.40 -STRATUM - 7-2- Impressive winner last time and the connections having been sweating on getting into this race with a low weight and they have managed it. Willie Mullins and owner Tony Bloom both know how to get a winner when they want it and very hopeful. LOST Jockey went for inside and got mullered as making his run.
iii - YORK 5.20 - SAVALAS - 5-1 - Won two races early on in season over this trip and ran two crackers in defeat at 6f. Ground and trip should be fine for this . LOST
ii - GOODWOOD 5.00 - DELL ARCA 11-4 - Easily beat one of my ratings last week so in good heart and very well handicapped on old form as well. LOST LAST RAN LIKE A PIG
i- GOODWOOD 2.40 - ANTONIO DE VEGA - 3-1 - Very impressive first time and recently taken out of another race to wait for this.; Trainer in good form. WINNER flew home after looking beaten
OTHER FANCIES
YORK 1.50 -MUTASHRY 11-4 9-2 2ND Lord Glitters last twice flattered to deceive and didnt go through with it to finish 2nd, today he decided to !!!!!!! 2.25 - MIDNIGHT WILDE 25-1 LOST 3.00 -EXPERT EYE 11-8 WINNER 4.15 - VINTAGE BRUT 9-2 LOST 4.50 - KINGS GIFT 11-1 AND KINGS PAVILION 33-1 BOTH LOST Balding wins the 4.50 for the third day in a row
GOODWOOD
2.05 BEAT THE BANK 5-4 WINNER 11-8 3.15 FLAMING SPEAR 15-2 WINNER backed into 4-1 and won nicely , follow AND DANIELS FLYER 16-1 LOST
NEWMARKET
2.15 NAYEF ROAD 6-5 WINNER 4.05 GIFTED MASTER 5-2 LOST 5.10 EXCELLENT GEORGE 7-1 WINNER 20-1 What a price
seem to be heavy on Johnston and De Sousa this week but here goes anyway
iiii- CHESTER 2.05 - LAKE VOLTA -11-2 - Not a fan of MJ having more than one horse in a race but this horse suited to sharp tracks, has a good draw and specialist Chester Jockey Frannie Norton on board and ran really well last Saturday behind Flaming Spear so couldnt leave alone. 3RD didnt get out and not clearest of runs, ran on but couldnt reach leader. Like a lot of Johnston.s horses he needed to dominate
iii- SANDOWN 2.25 - COMMUNIQUE - 6-1 De Sousa and this horse get on well and MJs horses dont seem to particularly like York so his fourth last week looks better form than you first think. LOST
ii - SANDOWN 1.50 - BAHAMIAN SUNRISE 9-1 - Another De sousa mount and two wins out of three at Sandown. Draw doesnt look great but having said that he likes to go forward when a lot of these dont and yesterday a number of low drawn horses got beaten because they got into trouble. Reckon De sousa will go all out for lead and hoping this horse can keep late challengers at bay. 3RD CHOSE THE WRONG ONE BUT as you will see below got the winner as a saver also the Forecast, pity i didnt do tricast
i- BEVERLEY - 2.45 - TAKE COVER 3-1 - Couldnt leave my old favourite out who is dropped in grade and won this last year. Stable not doing well this season but his second to BATTAASH at Goodwood stands out and Trainer reckons he has him back to his best. WINNER WHAT A TROOPER THIS HORSE IS ONE OF MY FAVS
OTHER FANCIES
SANDOWN
1.50 INTENSE ROMANCE 12-1 2ND GLOBAL APPLAUSE 9-1 WON small savers 3.00 CLON COULIS 14-1 LOST
BEVERLEY 2.45 FINAL VENTURE 7-2 LOST AND ELNADIM STAR 13-2 3RD small savers 3.2O BONDI BEACH BOY 9-2 2ND 3.55 AYUTTHAYA 5-1 NR and had this in my scoop 6 which had 4 place lines running into last and sure enough effing fav no where 4.30 PEPYS 5-1 WINNER
This weeks tries, need some winners , had a bad week
iiii- 4.05 STRATFORD - MONBEG LEGEND 5-2 - Won twice over fences and Nicky Henderson having loads of winners, lets hope this is another. WINNER 11/4 LED FROM START TO FINISH
iii- 3.35 HAYDOCK - SPEEDO BOY - 9-2- Will get the trip and has won on very soft and trainer looks like he has put another horse into this race to set it up for this one. NRNo Wonder his other horse left in and won easy !!!!!
ii - 4.30 ASCOT- REBEL STREAK 9-2 - ON a hat trick and the horse he beat last time has won since, won here as a two year old and hoping he can beat his new handicap mark LOST
i- 2.45 ASCOT -CAPE BYRON- 7-1 - Not good draws the last two times but that didnt stop him running a very good second to what could be a group horse in Flaming Spear last time out. 2ND JUST SEEN OFF BY Savers on RIPP ORF 7-1 WINNER and BELLE MEADE 33-1 LOST. GOT THE FORECAST
OTHER FANCIES
ASCOT
5.05 BAHAMIAN SUNRISE 7-1 LOST
HAYDOCK
1.50 NATURAL HISTORY 4-1 2ND 2.25 EMMAUS 9-4 LOST at least I had a last minute bet on HERE Comes WHEN 4.15 HARRY ANGEL 5-4 LOST 4.50 INTENSE ROMANCE 7-1 WINNER
THIRSK
3.45 SUPER FLORENCE 8-1 NR 5.30 MACHREE 9-1 LOST
KEMPTON 2.05 ENABLE 8-13 WON 3.15 CORAZON ESPINADO 14-1 2ND AT 25-1
Hi V. Just looking ahead to the St Ledger on Saturday and the potential "match up" between LAR TI DAR and KEW GARDENS and was wondering if you knew what sort of record fillies had in the race in general?
ST LEGER 2016: SINCE ITS FIRST RUNNING IN 1776, A TOTAL OF 42 FILLIES HAVE LANDED THE FINAL CLASSIC, ALTHOUGH ONLY SEVEN OF THEM HAVE TRIUMPHED SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WAR.
G , Hope this helps although I dont worry about the above as if Lar Ti Dar runs i reckon she will win. Especially with the fillies allowance. But then not a great fan of O'Brien
Yes know the allowance not great but still enough me feels, as to ratio's be very difficult to find out although I dont think too many fillies run in it. reckon it is about 10-1 certainly not as low as 3
I haven't checked... but the last filly I remember winning was OH SO SHARP when she completed the Filly's triple Crown... and although being the best filly by miles, she only just won and I don't know how much weight she was getting. The fillies tend to go for the Park Hill (I think it is). You have to respect the fact that John Gosden is even considering it though, and if LAH TI DAR does run, you know he must think she has a massive chance. It's so difficult for fillies against the much stronger colts, especially only getting 3lbs over 1m6f. It will really bottom her and I'd be suprised if Johnny G. does pick this option for her, but if he does thats a massive vote of confidence coz hehas a fantastic record in the race. Aidan O'Brien does too though, even though he runs more horses, most of them are in to set the race up for his best and strongest stayer, and KEW GARDENS is a very strong stayer and my idea of the winner even though I have always adored LAH TI DAR.
Comments
lost a packet on the fav. in the 3.35 Newbury.
Had a saver on Sir Dancealot to beat the fav. in f/c.
Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way
L
18th Aug Ripon 13:05 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y - Each Way
7/1
5. Related
8/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
W
18th Aug Newbury 13:25 EVENT 1m 5f 61y - Each Way
3. Hamada
5/2
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
W
18th Aug Newmarket 13:45 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y - Each Way
4. Rebel Streak
9/2
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
Rule 4: 5p Deduction
L
18th Aug Ripon 14:15 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y - Each Way
8. Golden Apollo
10/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 5 Places
L
18th Aug Newmarket 14:20 HANDICAP 0m 6f 0y - Each Way
6/1
3. Syrian Pearl
10/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 3 Places
Stake:
£62.00
Returns:
£34.30
Bet ID: O/0786566/0000859
BRING ON YORK although not one of my favourite s for winnnings
Lumped on.
Boom.
Here goes;-
iiii - YORK 3.40 -STRATUM - 7-2- Impressive winner last time and the connections having been sweating on getting into this race with a low weight and they have managed it. Willie Mullins and owner Tony Bloom both know how to get a winner when they want it and very hopeful. LOST Jockey went for inside and got mullered as making his run.
iii - YORK 5.20 - SAVALAS - 5-1 - Won two races early on in season over this trip and ran two crackers in defeat at 6f. Ground and trip should be fine for this . LOST
ii - GOODWOOD 5.00 - DELL ARCA 11-4 - Easily beat one of my ratings last week so in good heart and very well handicapped on old form as well. LOST LAST RAN LIKE A PIG
i- GOODWOOD 2.40 - ANTONIO DE VEGA - 3-1 - Very impressive first time and recently taken out of another race to wait for this.; Trainer in good form. WINNER flew home after looking beaten
OTHER FANCIES
YORK
1.50 -MUTASHRY 11-4 9-2 2ND Lord Glitters last twice flattered to deceive and didnt go through with it to finish 2nd, today he decided to !!!!!!!
2.25 - MIDNIGHT WILDE 25-1 LOST
3.00 -EXPERT EYE 11-8 WINNER
4.15 - VINTAGE BRUT 9-2 LOST
4.50 - KINGS GIFT 11-1 AND KINGS PAVILION 33-1 BOTH LOST Balding wins the 4.50 for the third day in a row
GOODWOOD
2.05 BEAT THE BANK 5-4 WINNER 11-8
3.15 FLAMING SPEAR 15-2 WINNER backed into 4-1 and won nicely , follow
AND DANIELS FLYER 16-1 LOST
NEWMARKET
2.15 NAYEF ROAD 6-5 WINNER
4.05 GIFTED MASTER 5-2 LOST
5.10 EXCELLENT GEORGE 7-1 WINNER 20-1 What a price
CHELMSFORD
4.40 CROQUEMBOUCHE 25-1 LOST
CARTMEL
2.45 -MARTHAS BENEFIT 11-4 LOST
iiii- CHESTER 2.05 - LAKE VOLTA -11-2 - Not a fan of MJ having more than one horse in a race but this horse suited to sharp tracks, has a good draw and specialist Chester Jockey Frannie Norton on board and ran really well last Saturday behind Flaming Spear so couldnt leave alone. 3RD didnt get out and not clearest of runs, ran on but couldnt reach leader. Like a lot of Johnston.s horses he needed to dominate
iii- SANDOWN 2.25 - COMMUNIQUE - 6-1 De Sousa and this horse get on well and MJs horses dont seem to particularly like York so his fourth last week looks better form than you first think. LOST
ii - SANDOWN 1.50 - BAHAMIAN SUNRISE 9-1 - Another De sousa mount and two wins out of three at Sandown. Draw doesnt look great but having said that he likes to go forward when a lot of these dont and yesterday a number of low drawn horses got beaten because they got into trouble. Reckon De sousa will go all out for lead and hoping this horse can keep late challengers at bay. 3RD CHOSE THE WRONG ONE BUT as you will see below got the winner as a saver also the Forecast, pity i didnt do tricast
i- BEVERLEY - 2.45 - TAKE COVER 3-1 - Couldnt leave my old favourite out who is dropped in grade and won this last year. Stable not doing well this season but his second to BATTAASH at Goodwood stands out and Trainer reckons he has him back to his best. WINNER WHAT A TROOPER THIS HORSE IS ONE OF MY FAVS
OTHER FANCIES
SANDOWN
1.50 INTENSE ROMANCE 12-1 2ND GLOBAL APPLAUSE 9-1 WON small savers
3.00 CLON COULIS 14-1 LOST
BEVERLEY
2.45 FINAL VENTURE 7-2 LOST AND ELNADIM STAR 13-2 3RD small savers
3.2O BONDI BEACH BOY 9-2 2ND
3.55 AYUTTHAYA 5-1 NR and had this in my scoop 6 which had 4 place lines running into last and sure enough effing fav no where
4.30 PEPYS 5-1 WINNER
CHELMSFORD
7.45 LUCYMAI 12-1 LOST
iiii- 4.05 STRATFORD - MONBEG LEGEND 5-2 - Won twice over fences and Nicky Henderson having loads of winners, lets hope this is another. WINNER 11/4 LED FROM START TO FINISH
iii- 3.35 HAYDOCK - SPEEDO BOY - 9-2- Will get the trip and has won on very soft and trainer looks like he has put another horse into this race to set it up for this one. NRNo Wonder his other horse left in and won easy !!!!!
ii - 4.30 ASCOT- REBEL STREAK 9-2 - ON a hat trick and the horse he beat last time has won since, won here as a two year old and hoping he can beat his new handicap mark LOST
i- 2.45 ASCOT -CAPE BYRON- 7-1 - Not good draws the last two times but that didnt stop him running a very good second to what could be a group horse in Flaming Spear last time out. 2ND JUST SEEN OFF BY Savers on RIPP ORF 7-1 WINNER and BELLE MEADE 33-1 LOST. GOT THE FORECAST
OTHER FANCIES
ASCOT
5.05 BAHAMIAN SUNRISE 7-1 LOST
HAYDOCK
1.50 NATURAL HISTORY 4-1 2ND
2.25 EMMAUS 9-4 LOST at least I had a last minute bet on HERE Comes WHEN
4.15 HARRY ANGEL 5-4 LOST
4.50 INTENSE ROMANCE 7-1 WINNER
THIRSK
3.45 SUPER FLORENCE 8-1 NR
5.30 MACHREE 9-1 LOST
KEMPTON
2.05 ENABLE 8-13 WON
3.15 CORAZON ESPINADO 14-1 2ND AT 25-1
G , Hope this helps although
I dont worry about the above as if Lar Ti Dar runs i reckon she will win. Especially with the fillies allowance. But then not a great fan of O'Brien
V
Of the 7 that have won since World War Two do we know how many have tried? Only roughly. I guess what I am after is a post WW2 percentage.
For Example: If the ratio of Colts to Fillies that run in the race was 10:1 then 7 isn't too bad, if it was say 3:1 then 7 is not good.
Don't worry finding out, it's probably too difficult to find the info.
Of course it's probably not a straight match up between the two either, there are others, like OLD PERSIAN. LOXLEY etc that have a chance.