I'm not sure how much a factor course form will be this week as apparently Quail Hollow underwent a series of renovations after last years event. I've seen the changes described as varying from subtle to drastic, with perhaps the biggest change being the greens which have all been replaced.
Apparently the greens are now constructed from a Bermuda grass similar to last weeks Zurich Classic and the faster firmer greens will supposedly be closer to the conditions found at The Masters and Shell Houston.
So what to do?
Webb Simpson - 66/1, first punt of the week for me is on Webb Simpson and at 66/1, the value button has gone into overload, I can't believe that price will be around for long. Simpson is a local boy and is one of a few to have played the course since the changes, which has to be a big positive. After a strong start to the season, his form tailed off, culminating in a missed cut at The Masters. He's not played since The Masters, so hopefully he's been fine tuning his game and getting plenty of practice at Quail Hollow. Two years ago, he lead this event after 54 holes, before missing a play off by one shot.
Bo Van Pelt - 100/1, I backed him last week and he seemed to stay under the radar despite a third round 9 under par 63. He's definitely creeping back to form, significantly he was ranked 15th in the field last week for strokes gained putting and has performed very well on the fast greens at The Masters. He also has some good course form here, so knowing how to get the ball around this course and feeling comfortable on the new greens, tick two very big boxes, which means 100/1 ticks a massive value box.
Ben Martin - 125/1, After storming to the front at the half way stage last week, he struggled over the weekend to eventually finish in a tie for 15th. Tied 3rd the week before so bang in form. He won twice on the Web.com tour last season, which is not to be sniffed at. He is also one of a handful of players said to have played the course since the changes, so all is set up for young Ben Martin to have another crack at winning his first event on tour.
Jamie Donaldson - 66/1, I think if this event was in Europe, Donaldson would be no bigger than 33/1. With no local knowledge or experience, the only things he's got going form him are immense talent and the fact that he is playing the best golf of his career so far. He also adapted very quickly to the greens at Augusta National. He reminds me a lot of David Lynn last year, who seemingly could do no wrong on the PGA Tour, in fact Lynn lost this event in a play off, perhaps Donaldson can go one better.
Laguna National - New/old course, which ever way you look at it. It used to be used 6/7 years ago, but hasn't been used on the European tour, so not sure course history is relevant this week.
Gary Stal - 100/1 - Next player in the French revolutiion. Showing some really good form of late, and with Levy doing the business last week it could be a "Go team France" mentality and give him that self belief.
Richard T Lee - 100/1 - Part of the Asian tour, already won this year on there (last month). He played in the Malaysian open a couple of weeks ago where Westwood stole all the limelight, but he did get a respectable T18.
Prom Meesawat - 80/1 - Played the last 2 tournaments that have been in the Far East finishing T19 and T24. His last tournament before thta was T2 at the Hong Kong open, so this guy can definitely play. He is between 40's and 66's with most bookies, but Coral have got him at 80/1 and I think that's too big so I jumped on.
JB Kruger - 50/1, Last week after a poor first round 74, Kruger played very well to finish a never in contention tied 15th. The Asian Tour regular is improving each week and should again find conditions to his liking.
Chapchai Nirat - 75/1, Goes by the nickname of King Kong. It's a few years ago but he finished tied 5th here in 2006. He's won 3 times on the Asian Tour and recently said he felt his game was close to the level where he can win again. Had his best result of the season in Indonesia last week with a tie for 10th. Holds the world record 72 hole low score of -32, so when on his game, can obviously go low.
Shiv Shankar Prasad Chowrasia - 125/1, also know as SSP . Won twice on the European Tour at events in his native India. Looks to have the putter hot again and been playing well with two top 5's from 4 starts on the Asian Tour. Anirban Lahri's win last week, could be the catalyst for an Indian revolution on the Asian Tour, much the same as the Aussies in America and the French on the European Tour.
Richie Ramsay - 33/1, he was going along very nicely last week until he derailed himself with a quadruple bogey 8 early in his third round. I think there's plenty of positives about Ramsay's game at the moment, to give him another chance.
I think after mentioning Webb last week, and reading Darty's alaysis of him this week I would be a bit mental to not back him, so I've added him at 50/1
I think after mentioning Webb last week, and reading Darty's alaysis of him this week I would be a bit mental to not back him, so I've added him at 50/1 Posted by FlashFlush
Ah yes, I forgot he was your no.1 pick last week.
Well I'm glad you are on Simpson this week, I could do with a bit of your good run rubbing off on me.
I put my bets on early this week. I made a shortlist for the European tour in Sunday night (Possibly the weakest field I've ver seen by the way) and I felt Sky had given value to most of my picks, so I wanted to jump on quick.
Madeira Islands
Matt Ford - 80/1 - I made my shortlist on Sunday night before any odds were up. When I loaded oddschecker on Monday I saw every bookie had him at 40's or 50's apart from Skybet, had him out at 80's. So thinking this will change any second I quickly jumped on. Some decent finishes lately on the challenge tour. last 3 results all top 20, with 2 of them top 5. Considering this is effectively a challenge tour standard event, then 80/1 is overpriced.
Johan Edfors - 80/1 - Been out of form for a while, but these weak events do tend to spur on some players who have lacked confidence in full strength events. T24 last week shows there is something there, and 3 European tour wins and 2 challenge tour wins shows he can seal the deal.
Ricardo Santos - 12/1 - WIN ONLY - This week could be a case of over looking an obvious winner in search for value that just isn't there. Ricardo has some decent form, and closing out the China Open with a 66 a couple of weeks ago could be a sign he has found something in his game.
The PLAYERS
Jim Furyk - 33/1 - A course than demands accuracy and course knowledge. There aren't many straighter or as experienced as Furyk. He also has that monkey to get off his back with a couple of really bad chokes in the last year or 2
Jason Dufner - 66/1 - 4 times in the top 12 for stroke play events this year, 2 of those top 5's. He missed the CUT at the Masters, which was his last event, but the Masters is a strange one. Not had the best form on this course, but did get T6 in 2011. I feel a win is only around the corner for Dufner.
Into the well once more... Early Tee Time on a Thurs for one R McLroy means only one thing.. He leads.. He fades... He comes back... And finishes between 2nd and 10th....
So it's Mclroy 25/1 win only 1st round leader.... My only outright bet is Stenson 25/1 ew 1st six
Gl guys
Ps bring me gl vibes guys....Playing Day 1c of the UKIPT tomoz (sat'd in for £55, so result already tbh)
Into the well once more... Early Tee Time on a Thurs for one R McLroy means only one thing.. He leads.. He fades... He comes back... And finishes between 2nd and 10th.... So it's Mclroy 25/1 win only 1st round leader.... My only outright bet is Stenson 25/1 ew 1st six Gl guys Ps bring me gl vibes guys....Playing Day 1c of the UKIPT tomoz (sat'd in for £55, so result already tbh) Posted by joesman1
Only did a cpl of bets at last minute . Unfortanately Westwood had already teed off and his price had gone in so left him alone as i wanted to pick some players to watch tonight.
Only really Senden and Na going under par , but with an early start tommorow my tip is for J Senden to rise through the field
(Not sure if that was a one off by Kaymer, but probably one of the greatest rounds i,ve ever seen)
Comments
Wells Fargo
I'm not sure how much a factor course form will be this week as apparently Quail Hollow underwent a series of renovations after last years event. I've seen the changes described as varying from subtle to drastic, with perhaps the biggest change being the greens which have all been replaced.
Apparently the greens are now constructed from a Bermuda grass similar to last weeks Zurich Classic and the faster firmer greens will supposedly be closer to the conditions found at The Masters and Shell Houston.
So what to do?
Webb Simpson - 66/1, first punt of the week for me is on Webb Simpson and at 66/1, the value button has gone into overload, I can't believe that price will be around for long.
Simpson is a local boy and is one of a few to have played the course since the changes, which has to be a big positive.
After a strong start to the season, his form tailed off, culminating in a missed cut at The Masters. He's not played since The Masters, so hopefully he's been fine tuning his game and getting plenty of practice at Quail Hollow.
Two years ago, he lead this event after 54 holes, before missing a play off by one shot.
Bo Van Pelt - 100/1, I backed him last week and he seemed to stay under the radar despite a third round 9 under par 63.
He's definitely creeping back to form, significantly he was ranked 15th in the field last week for strokes gained putting and has performed very well on the fast greens at The Masters.
He also has some good course form here, so knowing how to get the ball around this course and feeling comfortable on the new greens, tick two very big boxes, which means 100/1 ticks a massive value box.
Ben Martin - 125/1, After storming to the front at the half way stage last week, he struggled over the weekend to eventually finish in a tie for 15th. Tied 3rd the week before so bang in form.
He won twice on the Web.com tour last season, which is not to be sniffed at.
He is also one of a handful of players said to have played the course since the changes, so all is set up for young Ben Martin to have another crack at winning his first event on tour.
Jamie Donaldson - 66/1, I think if this event was in Europe, Donaldson would be no bigger than 33/1. With no local knowledge or experience, the only things he's got going form him are immense talent and the fact that he is playing the best golf of his career so far. He also adapted very quickly to the greens at Augusta National.
He reminds me a lot of David Lynn last year, who seemingly could do no wrong on the PGA Tour, in fact Lynn lost this event in a play off, perhaps Donaldson can go one better.
JB Kruger - 50/1, Last week after a poor first round 74, Kruger played very well to finish a never in contention tied 15th. The Asian Tour regular is improving each week and should again find conditions to his liking.
Chapchai Nirat - 75/1, Goes by the nickname of King Kong. It's a few years ago but he finished tied 5th here in 2006. He's won 3 times on the Asian Tour and recently said he felt his game was close to the level where he can win again. Had his best result of the season in Indonesia last week with a tie for 10th.
Holds the world record 72 hole low score of -32, so when on his game, can obviously go low.
Shiv Shankar Prasad Chowrasia - 125/1, also know as SSP
Richie Ramsay - 33/1, he was going along very nicely last week until he derailed himself with a quadruple bogey 8 early in his third round. I think there's plenty of positives about Ramsay's game at the moment, to give him another chance.
Well I'm glad you are on Simpson this week, I could do with a bit of your good run rubbing off on me.
Come on Webb!
Jimmy Walker 30/1
£2.50 e/w
Be lucky
£2
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