Different approach this week. I think the favourites are too strong and showing too much good form to back outsiders this week. So I've done spread betting and quite a few are win only, with 1 or 2 outsiders.
Open De Espana
F. Molinari 14/1 - Win Only
Jimenez - 22/1 - Win Only
Gregory Bourdy - 33/1 e/w
Alvaro Quiros - 33/1 e/w
Robert Karlsson - 66/1 e/w
Jordi Garcia Pinto - 100/1 e/w
Byron Nelson on the other hand I think it's Jordan Speith's for the taking. He is probably the most consistent player on the PGA tour, this is one of his home courses and although he hasn't shown great form here in the past he did get a T16 when only 16 years old.
Jordan Speith 12/1
I have also put Jordan in doubles with some of my above picks including a £5 win only double with Sergio.
After a week off, here I go again, in search of a player that can finish in the top 5, winners can come as and when they want.
Byron Nelson Well last week I was in Texas, (as Tikay has mentioned several times, home of the DART) and this week we have the Byron Nelson in Texas, I'd like to think the fact that I was there last week, could in some way give me an advantage this week, but it doesn't work like that does it.
What I did learn last week is at the moment, it's very hot indeed and the wind is blowing and gusting everywhere, last week there really was no escaping the wind in Texas, I believe the conditions will be similar again this week, so I'll go with players, I believe can play in the wind.
Open de Espana Played on a different course than last year, which never helps when trying to assess the field, but the event was held here in 2009 and is also the course where final qualifying for the European Tour is held every year, so there is course form of sorts to be found.
I read that the fairways are 30-40 meters wide and looking at the stats from 2009, it looked like driving accuracy was not that important, but then read that accuracy off the tee will be important this week, so already there are contradictions out there. Even though the course has been lengthened since 2009, I don't believe its particularly a bombers course, so perhaps we have a level playing field this week, with plenty on names and Spaniards at the head of the betting.
Hoping that like buses, you wait long enough and two winners come along at once, I'm pairing my picks this week......
The Obvious Pair (with value)
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 40/1, He's Spanish, he was tied 6th here in 2009, he's playing well, he's GIR stats are very good, which should be important this week. Looks too big at 40/1.
Ryan Palmer - 40/1, He's Texan, he lost a play off here in 2011, also has a tied 9th, lost a play off a couple of months ago, has been knocking on the door for a while. All the stars are aligned for a Ryan Palmer win this week.
The Pair I like Most
Fabrizzio Zanotti - 80/1, Zanotti may well become flavor of the week with many of the golfing tipsters this week. He was 2nd here in 2009, he finished 2nd here at the Tour School in December 2013, he was third in Madeira last week. A quick look at his stats and they seem to suggest he is game is in as good a shape as it has ever been, which it will need to be if he is going to get his first win on a course he clearly enjoys.
Ryo Ishikawa - 66/1, Using a marker that has paid dividends for me in the past, I like it when a player is struggling with his game but still manages to play well on a particular course. Ishikawa had a poor season last year with just one top 10 and that came here.
In 24 events last season, Ishikawa managed just one top 10 finish and no other finishes in the top 25. This season in 16 events he has 9 top 25's which includes 4 top 10's and he also has form in the wind.
So the logic is if he can play well here when his game is off, when he plays here in good form, he will do what? Hopefully the answer begins with W and ends with in!
The Why Not Pair
Eduardo DeLaRiva - 80/1, He's Spanish, he gained his tour card for 2013 with a tied 9th here. Usually in the shadow of his compatriots, he has a win on the Challenge Tour which came in Spain and has shown enough to suggest he could win on the main tour. Tied 10th and tied 13th in his last two events, so playing well at the moment.
Freddie Jacobson - 66/1, Freddie I believe, is an accomplished player in the wind and he has a bunch of top 10 finishes in Texas to prove it. He's also one of the best putters on tour and after following a certain Canadian on shot tracker in recent weeks, it would be great to follow a player, where the words 'in the hole' appear more quickly when they are on the putting green.
Proud to be English
Chris Wood - 60/1, Tied 24th here in 2009 in what was his first full year on tour. He's come on a lot since then, getting his maiden win last year. He was 5th last time out and after a light schedule could be set for a big summer and maybe Chris Wood's summer starts in Spain this week.
Paul Casey - 60/1, Undoubtedly talented to the extreme, if it wasn't for injuries I'm sure he would have won a Major by now. He look's to be very close to having all parts of his game clicking back into place and when it does he could win at a distance. I believe he is another that can handle windy conditions, so no problems envisaged there.
Matt kuchar / Francesco molinari 2.5 e/w double. Backed kuchar all season E/w and he has given me no reason to stop now and think Francesco has finally learned how to putt the ball in the hole of what I seen from the players
After a host of losing bets yesterday on rugy , horses, and football yesterday had my last £6 on 3 players still in with good chances for tonight . Took the prices about a cpl of hours before the end of play yesterday
Got an ew return from Europe this afternoon..... So I've taken Skybet's boosted offer of 10/1 on Mr DeLaet. I think being just behind the leaders in a weak ish field, might suit him best to finally get over the line.
Why does DJ throw shot after shot away visiting the water etc for 3 rounds.... Then always decide to play proper golf in the 4th?? As per usual, has had a blistering start to his 4th round, 4 under after 7 holes.... But way way too little, far far too late.... again!!!
New Dart Strategy This is based on a strategy of analysis of stats for players who have won or come very close to winning on tour this year. My interpretation is that there are certain stats that winning golfers show up on, so I've shortlisted a group of none winning players that also show up on the 'winners stats'. I came up with a top 12 of Ryan Palmer, Charley Hoffman, Charles Howell III, Jason Kokrak, Brendan Steele, Russell Knox, Billy Horschel, Ryo Ishikawa, Seung Yul Noh, Kevin Na, Jason Bohn and Brendan Todd. I can't throw that much muck, I'm already on Horschel, I've rejected some on a technicality and those nearer the front of the betting market go into my 'poor value' box, so.... Ryo Ishikawa - 66/1, if my stats analysis is anywhere near close, this guy is currently playing like a winner in waiting. On first inspection his Strokes Gained Putting stats ranked 149th on tour would put you off, but if you look at his SGP for the last 3 tournaments in Florida he would be ranked 10th on tour for SGP, I believe this weeks greens are similar grass to those in Florida, so that's promising. The only negative is that he's not played here before, but for now that's an unknown rather than a negative. Russell Knox - 66/1, similar good vibes to Ishikawa, looks to be doing everything right that will bring the opportunity of his first win on tour. He has played this event twice before, made the cut both times but finished well down the field, hopefully the experience of 8 rounds and an improving game will give him the platform to compete this week. Maybe he can make it two Scottish wins after Lairds victory last year. Kevin Na - 45/1, this is the course where Kevin Na recorded a 16, write many golf correspondents and he hasn't been back here since then. However he returns this year in fine form and some very impressive key stats. Brendan Todd - 150/1, if Brendan Todd and Splashies stood in front of me right now, I wouldn't know who was who. Brendan Todd not Splashies, ticks a lot of my key stat boxes and ticks them well, so I'll see if I can get to see what Brendan Todd looks like this week. Jason Bohn - 250/1, nearly kicked him out, due to his lack of length off the tee, but Ben Curtis won here and Jason Bohn has the same type of game that see's him plot his way around a golf course, the 250/1 also saved him from my cut. ahhhgggh Finished throwing my muck, just had a look at the tee times and spotted the name of Brian Harman , he was very high on my key stats shorts list, but I didn't think he was playing this week. He's actually the one key stat player who also has very good course form, two appearances two top 20's in the last 2 years. Priced at 80/1, I've got to back him and back him well as he comes out as in my top 3 picks based on my new found strategy. If I don't get at least one top 5 this week, I may well give up! Posted by TheDart
Well I know what Brendan Todd looks like now.
Seung Yul Noh was of course a 3 figure winner a couple of weeks after I made the above analysis.
I should have stuck to my key stats strategy, it's all about timing with this golf betting and my timing is well off at the moment.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Byron Nelson + Open de Espana) : Many a true word said in jest! I keep getting a stabbing pain in my stomach, when I think of the golf from last night. It will be good to concentrate on another sport this week. If there's a horse called Graeme or Graham running on Saturday, will I be able to ignore it? :-) Posted by TheDart
The BMW PGA Championship tends to favour the Brittish players. Normally the English in particular, but this week I predict the Scotts will have a good run for their money. The conditions are supposed to be a bit wet and windy apparently, so that will naturally suit them.
BMW PGA Championship
Paul Lawrie - 80/1 - All or nothing with Paul on this track. Either misses the cut or finishes top 10.
Richie Ramsay - 80/1 - Hit a really good patch of form recently.
Marc Warren - 125/1 - 2nd here last year
Raphael Jacquelin - 150/1 - No real reason apart from he seems to be in OK form and he is far too good to ever be 3 figure odds.
Crowne Plaza
Zach Johnson - 14/1 - Win Only- Hasn't been outside of the top 5 in the last 4 years.
Chris Kirk - 40/1 - Hitting some very good form lately and also had a top 5 in 2012 and T16 in 2011. Both times he was a long way back still but hopefully the form he is in will close that.
Comments
Placed (matched)
Placed (matched)
After a week off, here I go again, in search of a player that can finish in the top 5, winners can come as and when they want.
Byron Nelson
Well last week I was in Texas, (as Tikay has mentioned several times, home of the DART) and this week we have the Byron Nelson in Texas, I'd like to think the fact that I was there last week, could in some way give me an advantage this week, but it doesn't work like that does it.
What I did learn last week is at the moment, it's very hot indeed and the wind is blowing and gusting everywhere, last week there really was no escaping the wind in Texas, I believe the conditions will be similar again this week, so I'll go with players, I believe can play in the wind.
Open de Espana
Played on a different course than last year, which never helps when trying to assess the field, but the event was held here in 2009 and is also the course where final qualifying for the European Tour is held every year, so there is course form of sorts to be found.
I read that the fairways are 30-40 meters wide and looking at the stats from 2009, it looked like driving accuracy was not that important, but then read that accuracy off the tee will be important this week, so already there are contradictions out there. Even though the course has been lengthened since 2009, I don't believe its particularly a bombers course, so perhaps we have a level playing field this week, with plenty on names and Spaniards at the head of the betting.
Hoping that like buses, you wait long enough and two winners come along at once, I'm pairing my picks this week......
The Obvious Pair (with value)
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 40/1, He's Spanish, he was tied 6th here in 2009, he's playing well, he's GIR stats are very good, which should be important this week. Looks too big at 40/1.
Ryan Palmer - 40/1, He's Texan, he lost a play off here in 2011, also has a tied 9th, lost a play off a couple of months ago, has been knocking on the door for a while. All the stars are aligned for a Ryan Palmer win this week.
The Pair I like Most
Fabrizzio Zanotti - 80/1, Zanotti may well become flavor of the week with many of the golfing tipsters this week. He was 2nd here in 2009, he finished 2nd here at the Tour School in December 2013, he was third in Madeira last week. A quick look at his stats and they seem to suggest he is game is in as good a shape as it has ever been, which it will need to be if he is going to get his first win on a course he clearly enjoys.
Ryo Ishikawa - 66/1, Using a marker that has paid dividends for me in the past, I like it when a player is struggling with his game but still manages to play well on a particular course. Ishikawa had a poor season last year with just one top 10 and that came here.
In 24 events last season, Ishikawa managed just one top 10 finish and no other finishes in the top 25. This season in 16 events he has 9 top 25's which includes 4 top 10's and he also has form in the wind.
So the logic is if he can play well here when his game is off, when he plays here in good form, he will do what? Hopefully the answer begins with W and ends with in!
The Why Not Pair
Eduardo DeLaRiva - 80/1, He's Spanish, he gained his tour card for 2013 with a tied 9th here. Usually in the shadow of his compatriots, he has a win on the Challenge Tour which came in Spain and has shown enough to suggest he could win on the main tour. Tied 10th and tied 13th in his last two events, so playing well at the moment.
Freddie Jacobson - 66/1, Freddie I believe, is an accomplished player in the wind and he has a bunch of top 10 finishes in Texas to prove it. He's also one of the best putters on tour and after following a certain Canadian on shot tracker in recent weeks, it would be great to follow a player, where the words 'in the hole' appear more quickly when they are on the putting green.
Proud to be English
Chris Wood - 60/1, Tied 24th here in 2009 in what was his first full year on tour. He's come on a lot since then, getting his maiden win last year. He was 5th last time out and after a light schedule could be set for a big summer and maybe Chris Wood's summer starts in Spain this week.
Paul Casey - 60/1, Undoubtedly talented to the extreme, if it wasn't for injuries I'm sure he would have won a Major by now. He look's to be very close to having all parts of his game clicking back into place and when it does he could win at a distance. I believe he is another that can handle windy conditions, so no problems envisaged there.
Good Luck Everyone!!!
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20:46
20:27
20:25
Seung Yul Noh was of course a 3 figure winner a couple of weeks after I made the above analysis.
I should have stuck to my key stats strategy, it's all about timing with this golf betting and my timing is well off at the moment.
Sent you a pm
Father V
I thought I had replied.....
I hadn't!
I have now.
I keep getting a stabbing pain in my stomach, when I think of the golf from last night.
It will be good to concentrate on another sport this week.
If there's a horse called Graeme or Graham running on Saturday, will I be able to ignore it? :-)
17:20
Justin Rose - Winner
17:19
John Senden - Winner
17:17
Ross Fisher - Winner
17:17
Justin Rose - Winner