Well I'm afraid that was a VERY nearly week for us all last week. Very unlucky Charles and Jerome. Jerome may go into detail about how close we both came to a jackpot payout, I'm still coing to terms with it myself.
In brief, I didn't put it up on here, as I'm aware that I've often fancied the front runners in the US so far this year. But truth be told, the cream has been rising to the top over the pond recently (this week apart sooooo annoyingly). But I backed DJ win only and ew. I also put him in an ew double with Fraser. Come fri night, Fraser was 22/1 and DJ 50/1... Far too big for both in our opinions. So we both went in again. I missed the 50/1 on DJ so had to 40/1. Let's be honest SSP should have won, but once Fraser hit the front, he should have won. And only a silly bogey on the 17th cost DJ the win... It would have been an amazing return... But hey ho...
Briefly in Africa this week, I'd make George 50/1 and not joint fav to defend his title. With the added pressure that comes with it, plus his terrible swinging recently, I think he's a DEFO leave alone.
It's 3 lions on my betting slip this week. All 3 were in the top ten here last year, and all shown good form this year already. And yes, I'm having a 2nd week guesting in Baldwins fan club.
It's Sullivan 16/1 Hatton 33/1 and Baldwin 100/1 all ew..... USA to follow.....
Edit:- just added Pieters @ 25/1 ew (2 under after 3). I'd forgotten the East Course suits sluggers.
Yes, very frustrating week last week. I saw Jerome on the tables Thursday evening and said I'd put a bet on Nick Watney win only @28/1 after he eagled the first and his price hadn't changed. Looked a great bet until Saturday evening when he played about as bad as SSP if not worse! I though Bae was going to win it at 66/1 as well. Oh well. I'm taking positives from it, I put more research in last week than every before and was in touching distance of the double. Same again this week, plenty of research, although it appears the bookies had the same idea as me with most of my bets in the top 10 in Joburg.
Joburg
Richard Sterne 22/1
Byeong-Hun An - 25/1
Gregory Bourdy - 25/1
Danie Van Tonder - 40/1
Honda Classic
Ryan Palmer - 33/1
Keegan Bradley - 28/1 (Annoyed I didn't take 33/1 when I had the chance)
Harris English - 40/1
Also had a small dabble on Daniel Berger 125/1 but not added him to my doubles
Frls Market not up yet but the two Van Der Walt's look good value to me.
Honda
Rose 22/1
Palmer 33/1
Oosthuizen 66/1 (no form here but got a feeling he might have a good 2015)
Frls
Westwood 40/1
Bradley 33/1
Another 2 dead heat winners last week means I''ve had 4 dead heat winners and 3 places in my Frls which tells my I've found my touch when comes to frl picks but need to get my outright bets sorted. No more horschel lol
As Neil hinted, last week was quite a weekend for near misses.
With my pre tournament bets and in running bets which included the same Fraser / Johnson double as Neil, though I took Dustin Johnson at 50/1 it really felt for a long time as if I was in for some bumper payouts, though Neil's near miss far outclassed mine.
I also backed Paul Casey at 80/1 in running on the Sunday, so it meant I had Chowrasia 33/1, Johnson 50/1 and Casey 80/1 all losing in playoffs, not to mention Perera 150/1, Fraser 22/1 and Bradley 50/1 all finishing one shot outside a play off.
Shouldn't complain though as all were backed ew and all helped towards a tidy profit on the week.
Joburg Open
Tyrell Hatton - 2 points ew 33/1, I may not get to watch any of the Joburg Open, which will make it much easier to support Tyrell Hatton, as I do find some of his antics on the greens cringe worthy.
A quality player though and came 2nd in this event last year.
Thomas Aitken - 2 points ew 25/1, good record here and could/ should go close again.
Jaco Van Zyl - 1 point ew 40/1, won a bucket load of Sunshine Tour events, came 3rd last week after a lengthy lay off, lead after 3 rounds here last season.
Garth Mullroy - 1 point ew 50/1, another South African who has played well in this event on several occasions.
I fancy Mullroy could be the next South African to make it big, winning this sort of event would be a step in the right direction.
Matthew Baldwin - 1 point ew 100/1, I don't know how he feels, but I feel better for him, that the Asian swing has finished.
Back on more familiar territory where he finished 5th last year and in the type of field that represents a good opportunity for him to get his breakthrough win, I like that the bookies are being generous / lazy in under rating Matthew Baldwin.
European Tour Closing Balance = -60.5 points Returns from Hero Indian Open = +33 points European Tour Opening Balance = -27.5 points Joburg Open Investment = 14 points Balance Carried Forward = -41.5 points
Harris English 2 points ew 40/1, I backed him last week and I'm sticking with him this week as I think he's in good form, to go with his course form and game that should suit the wind and rain that is forecast this week.
Freddie Jacobson 1 point ew 100/1, his past record shows that he likes this course or can handle it better than most. He plays well in the wind and is probably one of the best putters on tour.
Graham DeLaet 1 point ew 50/1, finish 9th last time he played here, despite 2 double bogeys in his final round.
Playing well again and surely must win sooner rather than later.
Graeme Mcdowell 2 points ew 30/1, given the weather forecast, given the course setup and his past record, I simply can't not back GMAC this week.
Keegan Bradley 2 points ew 30/1, finished one shot out of a play off last week and ticks the course form, game to suit conditions boxes.
PGA Tour Closing Balance = - 51 Points Returns from Northern Trust = +6.75 points PGA Tour Opening Balance = -44.25 points
In the USA this week, I remember I was on Rory last year @ 10/1 ew.. He had it won, til he tried to fire 220 yards over water from a bunker on the 70th hole, and doubled it, then bogied the par 5 71st. Went into a play off and played an amazing wood to the island green to 12 ft and missed. Henley before him had slam dunked a tram liner. ( a bit of a repeat from last week tbh).
So Rory's won here, then missed the cut (when in the doldrums), then come tied 2nd. It's a long course that requires a straight drive - so it obv suits his game. And with The Power paying top 6 again, I'm happy to back him ew at 7/2, and I lose 5% of my total investment if he comes 2nd-6th.
If I was looking to back anyone else other than Rory, I'd be looking in the 'without' market if I was u guys, and just forfeit the 4 points.
my picks this week: Joburg Hatton 33/ 1 Aiken 25/1 Frls Market not up yet but the two Van Der Walt's look good value to me. Honda Rose 22/1 Palmer 33/1 Oosthuizen 66/1 (no form here but got a feeling he might have a good 2015) Frls Westwood 40/1 Bradley 33/1 Another 2 dead heat winners last week means I''ve had 4 dead heat winners and 3 places in my Frls which tells my I've found my touch when comes to frl picks but need to get my outright bets sorted. No more horschel lol Posted by jdsallstar
Well done Neil on having Sullivan last week and also well done to mrdavies and myself who managed to find Daniel Berger from somewhere! Such a shame Harringdon drained that 16 footer on the last to force a playoff!
Well done Neil on having Sullivan last week and also well done to mrdavies and myself who managed to find Daniel Berger from somewhere! Such a shame Harringdon drained that 16 footer on the last to force a playoff! This week Africa Open Jaco Van Zyl - 14/1 Garth Mulroy - 30/1 Jaco Ahlers - 100/1 WGC Jason Day - 14/1 Jamie Donaldson - 40/1 Posted by FlashFlush
Cheers Charles. V unlucky with Berger. The racing Post somehow tipped him too. For double rubs, I know of someone who was on Harrington at fancy odds in-play.... Guess who?? (Not me btw).
This week very easy for me.. Van Zyl ew @ 16/1. Might do Sulivan win only 11/1 (will advise). In the USA last years 1st and 4th, Reed ew 25/1, and DJ ew 20/1.
Poor start by my boys this week in SA. While browsing the leaderboard I saw my old pal Ricardo Santos had started birdie birdie and was still 80/1 with a few bookies, one of which I have funds with. So couple of quid e/w there to keep the interest.
Cue the double bogey...
EDIT: Well not far off, I wrote this after 5 holes... 6th hole. BOGEY!
Double EDIT: Can I delete this now and pretend this traumatic ordeal never happened? lol
Poor start by my boys this week in SA. While browsing the leaderboard I saw my old pal Ricardo Santos had started birdie birdie and was still 80/1 with a few bookies, one of which I have funds with. So couple of quid e/w there to keep the interest. Cue the double bogey... EDIT: Well not far off, I wrote this after 5 holes... 6th hole. BOGEY! Double EDIT: Can I delete this now and pretend this traumatic ordeal never happened? lol Posted by FlashFlush
Poor start by my boys this week in SA. While browsing the leaderboard I saw my old pal Ricardo Santos had started birdie birdie and was still 80/1 with a few bookies, one of which I have funds with. So couple of quid e/w there to keep the interest. Cue the double bogey... EDIT: Well not far off, I wrote this after 5 holes... 6th hole. BOGEY! Double EDIT: Can I delete this now and pretend this traumatic ordeal never happened? lol Posted by FlashFlush
lol
After a week of intense tilt on the tables i decided to give this week a miss....not sure adding golf tilt would be goood idea....my brain hurts
Did this on Coral where they often have a £10 match up bet . ie Youe bet £10 on an outright and get £10 free in play bet
Just deciding my in play bet - Cheers so far for whoever tipped Johnson as i got it off here - just laid him so i.ll only get £130 but am freerolling with 3 picks
and £3 on Rickie Fowler at 22/1 - Did some 50p dbls as well with the fav of the euro tour and someone else mentioned on here with Stenson, Bubba and Rickie Fowler
Thx to Joesman and WD for the DJ tip . I did make a bit of a crazy lay off on the 1st day but finished between £130-£140 in profit for the tournament and also pleased for DJ to see him win after his recent problems
Thx to Joesman and WD for the DJ tip . I did make a bit of a crazy lay off on the 1st day but finished between £130-£140 in profit for the tournament and also pleased for DJ to see him win after his recent problems Posted by MP33
Happy to oblige Mr MP. Let's be honest, if DJ had had his putting boots on, it wouldn't have been a sweat.
Just had an extra fiver on oostenhouizen at 21/1 - That wind looks a bit scary and hes only 1 from home EDIT - Gonna have to remember this course for nxt year - just couldnt see a short hitter having any chance at all Posted by MP33
Horses for courses is one of the most important factors in picking selections for any tournament, but here more so than most.
Comments
With my pre tournament bets and in running bets which included the same Fraser / Johnson double as Neil, though I took Dustin Johnson at 50/1 it really felt for a long time as if I was in for some bumper payouts, though Neil's near miss far outclassed mine.
I also backed Paul Casey at 80/1 in running on the Sunday, so it meant I had Chowrasia 33/1, Johnson 50/1 and Casey 80/1 all losing in playoffs, not to mention Perera 150/1, Fraser 22/1 and Bradley 50/1 all finishing one shot outside a play off.
Shouldn't complain though as all were backed ew and all helped towards a tidy profit on the week.
Joburg Open
Tyrell Hatton - 2 points ew 33/1, I may not get to watch any of the Joburg Open, which will make it much easier to support Tyrell Hatton, as I do find some of his antics on the greens cringe worthy.
A quality player though and came 2nd in this event last year.
Thomas Aitken - 2 points ew 25/1, good record here and could/ should go close again.
Jaco Van Zyl - 1 point ew 40/1, won a bucket load of Sunshine Tour events, came 3rd last week after a lengthy lay off, lead after 3 rounds here last season.
Garth Mullroy - 1 point ew 50/1, another South African who has played well in this event on several occasions.
I fancy Mullroy could be the next South African to make it big, winning this sort of event would be a step in the right direction.
Matthew Baldwin - 1 point ew 100/1, I don't know how he feels, but I feel better for him, that the Asian swing has finished.
Back on more familiar territory where he finished 5th last year and in the type of field that represents a good opportunity for him to get his breakthrough win, I like that the bookies are being generous / lazy in under rating Matthew Baldwin.
European Tour Closing Balance = -60.5 points
Returns from Hero Indian Open = +33 points
European Tour Opening Balance = -27.5 points
Joburg Open Investment = 14 points
Balance Carried Forward = -41.5 points
Harris English 2 points ew 40/1, I backed him last week and I'm sticking with him this week as I think he's in good form, to go with his course form and game that should suit the wind and rain that is forecast this week.
Freddie Jacobson 1 point ew 100/1, his past record shows that he likes this course or can handle it better than most.
He plays well in the wind and is probably one of the best putters on tour.
Graham DeLaet 1 point ew 50/1, finish 9th last time he played here, despite 2 double bogeys in his final round.
Playing well again and surely must win sooner rather than later.
Graeme Mcdowell 2 points ew 30/1, given the weather forecast, given the course setup and his past record, I simply can't not back GMAC this week.
Keegan Bradley 2 points ew 30/1, finished one shot out of a play off last week and ticks the course form, game to suit conditions boxes.
PGA Tour Closing Balance = - 51 Points
Returns from Northern Trust = +6.75 points
PGA Tour Opening Balance = -44.25 points
Joburg Open:
Byeong Hun An £5 win 20/1
Dean Burmester £1 e/w 200/1
Justin Walters £2 e/w 50/1
Garth Mulroy £2 e/w 40/1
Honda Classic:
G De laet £2 e/w 50/1
Daniel Berger £2 e/w 125/1
Kegan Bradley £2.5 e/w 33/1
G Mcdowell £2.50 e/w 33/1
Good luck everyone, I see might big outsider has got off to a flyer come on Deanoooooo
Looks good to me lol
Minimal time for research this week, so just a quick declaration of my picks.
I found plenty of tempting prices, so a few ew outsiders pre event, with the back up plan of using the in running market.
Africa Open
Matthew Baldwin - 2 points ew 80/1
Oliver Fisher 1.5 points ew 40/1
Kristof Broberg - 1.5 points ew 50/1
Tom Lewis - 1 point ew 80/1
WGC
Danny Willett - 1 point ew 150/1
Webb Simpson - 1 point ew 100/1
Gary Woodland - 1 point ew 100/1
Alex Noren - 1 point ew 150/1
Asian Doubles and Trebles
Byeong Hun An - 18/1
Hideki Matsuyama - 33/1
Ryo Ishikawa - 40/1
Courtesy of a fellow punter:
FRL - Matthew Baldwin - 100/1