Richard Sterne - 28/1 - Simply because he is from Pretoria, so I think of the short prices he is best value.
Mikko Korhonen - 80/1 - Someone I've backed before, and he is showing some good form.
Shaun Norris - 250/1 - Affiliated club is only 20 minutes from Pretoria CC and he had an 8th at the Alfred Dunhill a few months back. (Decided I'd bet double my usual bet on him as well for an extremely unlikely big win)
Adilson Da Silva - 80/1 (Last time I pick him if he messes up again. Back in 2010/11 he was the best around on this course on the sunshine tour).
Valspar
Luke Donald - 25/1 - Showing some form again and has a great history on this course.
Justin Rose - 28/1 - Some good course form and due to poor form his price is longer than usual.
Well, I'm having a decent time with the in running markets at the moment, but not getting over the line with pre event picks.
Tshwane Open
New venue for the Tshwane Open, but has been used regularly on the Sunshine Tour, so there's some course form to be found and from that I've had a bash at building photofit of the type of player that could win this.
Tight course, tree lined, but a short course by todays standards, means I think we are looking for 'ball strikers' and tee to green specialists.
Last weeks runner up Matt Ford fits the profile, but I wonder if last weeks exploits will have taken too much out of him.
Its always good to go local in these events, especially as its likely most of the foreigners will be seeing the course for the first time but for now I'm backing two foreigners that fit the potential profile of a winner:
Adrian Otaegui - 2 points ew 66/1, I'm not too bothered by the missed cut last week as young players seem to have the knack of bouncing back sooner rather than later. Before the missed cut he'd put a nice run of 25th, 12th and 10th.
The 12th place was at the tight Delhi GC, he's ranked highly on the driving accuracy and GIR stats and represents good ew value at 66/1.
John Parry - 2 points ew 90/1, finished 6th last week without really being in contention, so shouldn't be feeling any fatigue on the mental side. That was his best finish for around 18 months, he's been playing well for the last few months, since regaining his card at the tour school. Has the ability and game to plot his way around this type of course.
Valspar Championship
Lots of course form, with clear evidence that course form is important with multiple winners and the same players and types of players popping up on the leaderboards each year.
Kevin Na - 2 points ew 55/1, he was 2nd here last year but I like the fact that Kevin Na finished 8th here back in 2008, when he wasn't actually that good. He's come along way since then and last weeks under the radar tied 9th at the WGC is also ticking a good box.
Harish English - 2 points ew 40/1, got blown away in Florida 2 weeks ago, but showed plenty of form before then to suggest he is ready to win again. Tied 7th here in 2013.
Well, I'm having a decent time with the in running markets at the moment, but not getting over the line with pre event picks. Tshwane Open New venue for the Tshwane Open, but has been used regularly on the Sunshine Tour, so there's some course form to be found and from that I've had a bash at building photofit of the type of player that could win this. Tight course, tree lined, but a short course by todays standards, means I think we are looking for 'ball strikers' and tee to green specialists. Last weeks runner up Matt Ford fits the profile, but I wonder if last weeks exploits will have taken too much out of him. Its always good to go local in these events, especially as its likely most of the foreigners will be seeing the course for the first time bu,t for now I'm backing two foreigners that fit the potential profile of a winner: Adrian Otaegui - 2 points ew 66/1, I'm not too bothered by the missed cut last week as young players seem to have the knack of bouncing back sooner rather than later. Before the missed cut he'd put a nice run of 25th, 12th and 10th. The 12th place was at the tight Delhi GC, he's ranked highly on the driving accuracy and GIR stats and represents good ew value at 66/1. John Parry - 2 points ew 90/1, finished 6th last week without really being in contention, so shouldn't be feeling any fatigue on the mental side. That was his best finish for around 18 months, he's been playing well for the last few months, since regaining his card at the tour school. Has the ability and game to plot his way around this type of course. Valspar Championship Lots of course form, with clear evidence that course form is important with multiple winners and the same players and types of players popping up on the leaderboards each year. Kevin Na - 2 points ew 55/1, he was 2nd here last year but I like the fact that Kevin Na finished 8th here back in 2008, when he wasn't actually that good. He's come along way since then and last weeks under the radar tied 9th at the WGC is also ticking a good box. Harish English - 2 points ew 40/1, got blown away in Florida 2 weeks ago, but showed plenty of form before then to suggest he is ready to win again. Tied 7th here in 2013. Posted by TheDart
Ffs man, I've just spent 1/2 an hour going through past winners and contenders. And was about to come on to say from the sublime to the ridiculous this week in that this is a massively long course suiting sluggers. Then I was going to crow about getting 110/1 for a previous winner Dawie Van Der Walt. Who did quite well on the Desert Swing, and hopefully had got his eye in during the past two weeks. Too late I've backed him now, but I'm off back to my drawing board for my other pick(s).
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Valspar Championship + Tshwane Open) : Ffs man, I've just spent 1/2 an hour going through past winners and contenders. And was about to come on to say from the sublime to the ridiculous this week in that this is a massively long course suiting sluggers. Then I was going to crow about getting 110/1 for a previous winner Dawie Van Der Walt. Who did quite well on the Desert Swing, and hopefully had got his eye in during the past two weeks. Too late I've backed him now, but I'm off back to my drawing board for my other pick(s). Posted by joesman1
Could have been worse you could have spent half an hour studying and ended up backing the same as me
Just because the course is shorter doesn't mean we should ignore bombers, so good luck with Van Der Walt, though you are going to get some serious ribbing if he does win, based on your flawed selection criteria this week
Just kuchar hasn,t been up there much in recent weeks but has put some good rounds togethor and just think i,ll get my moneys worth with him while watching. And i think when he does eventually get a win a lot of ppl will say to themselves - why wasn,t i on him - Theres no-one more due for a win than him so obv better odds as well. I,ve been slightly comprimised on price as its a free bet so had to take betfair sportsbook price
£5 WIN 25/1
Valspar Championship Matt Kuchar - Outright Winner
So I'm on Dawie Van Der Walt ew 110/1... Now having looked at the correct course, it's very much as u were with last weeks. With that in mind, and going back to back in Africa not unknown (Grace) I'm gonna put Fisher JR in the mix ew 33/1. Now he's got the Euro Tour win monkey off his back, he might not tighten up as much when in the mix. My final pick is Sullivan. I took the 20/1 ew with Stan James yesterday, and I've topped up this morning at 18/1 ew and win only. Reason being :- he's nearly twice the price as last week, yes he missed the cut, but he caught the worst of the wind, and when he looked to be struggling to make the cut, he made sure he defo missed it. Imo he's the best player in this weeks field atm.
In the USA (soz Darty) I'm on Na at 55/1 ew. Good course form, in decent form atm, and this is a short ish hitters week after last weeks slug-fest. For my 2nd pick I've gone back to Spieth, ew and win only 14/1. Shown course form in the past, and would love to see him win before The Masters.
I'm sure most have noticed that Neil has been in very impressive form this year, I've been looking through Neil's picks and he has shown a remarkable knack for picking out the right players near the front of the market.
I know Neil has great knowledge for the game and puts in the time to study, there is always good logic and good reasoning for his picks, where he and I differ is that when he makes his mind up he simply gets the best price available for his player for the week and job done.
Whereas I tend to skip the market leaders looking for bigger prices and players that might shock and I maybe over analyze things.
I think I do OK, but last week was a typical example of my down fall, my main picks in the WGPC were all 3 figure prices, I had Simpson finishing 7th at 100/1 and Willet 12th at 150/1.
Not bad picks, in that I managed to pick the outsiders that played the best, but no returns for 7th and 12th.
Thankfully after round 3 I backed DJ in running at 6/1 and covered my initial outlay.
I liked DJ from the start but didn't back him as he was 'only' 20/1.
I think I've been suffering from mug punter syndrome!
So here's my Joesman1 double for this week:
Romain Wattel - 25/1, knocking on the door for a while and has been one of the most consistent players on tour over the last 6 months, no course knowledge is the only concern.
Henrik Stenson - 16/1, top quality player in a weak field this week, first time out last week and played extremely well. He should be able to put his trusty 3 wood to good use this week. Like Wattel, no course knowledge is the only concern.
Win only on Stenson, Each way single on Wattel and an ew double.
Still no local at the Tshwane for me, which is nagging away at me, I've been thinking JB Kruger, he has at least one top 5 here on the Sunshine Tour and I noticed he finished well last week, but then again the man in form is tipping Fisher Jr and I can't argue with his reasoning.
I've added what I'm calling a Joesman1 double. I'm sure most have noticed that Neil has been in very impressive form this year, I've been looking through Neil's picks and he has shown a remarkable knack for picking out the right players near the front of the market. I know Neil has great knowledge for the game and puts in the time to study, there is always good logic and good reasoning for his picks, where he and I differ is that when he makes his mind up he simply gets the best price available for his player for the week and job done. Whereas I tend to skip the market leaders looking for bigger prices and players that might shock and I maybe over analyze things. I think I do OK, but last week was a typical example of my down fall, my main picks in the WGPC were all 3 figure prices, I had Simpson finishing 7th at 100/1 and Willet 12th at 150/1. Not bad picks, in that I managed to pick the outsiders that played the best, but no returns for 7th and 12th. Thankfully after round 3 I backed DJ in running at 6/1 and covered my initial outlay. I liked DJ from the start but didn't back him as he was 'only' 20/1. I think I've been suffering from mug punter syndrome! So here's my Joesman1 double for this week: Romain Wattel - 25/1, knocking on the door for a while and has been one of the most consistent players on tour over the last 6 months, no course knowledge is the only concern. Henrik Stenson - 16/1, top quality player in a weak field this week, first time out last week and played extremely well. He should be able to put his trusty 3 wood to good use this week. Like Wattel, no course knowledge is the only concern. Win only on Stenson, Each way single on Wattel and an ew double. Still no local at the Tshwane for me, which is nagging away at me, I've been thinking JB Kruger , he has at least one top 5 here on the Sunshine Tour and I noticed he finished well last week, but then again the man in form is tipping Fisher Jr and I can't argue with his reasoning. Good Luck All!!! Posted by TheDart
Thanks Jerome, yep running well atm, but form is only tempary as we all know... I wish I had your skill at spotting good value 'in running' bets. U have been very modest in not mentioning u also backed Fisher Jr in running last week at 11/1, - even if it was part fuelled by the ribbing I was giving u for backing the wrong Fisher.
After worrying for a while I might miss out on an ew double return last week, I've decided to go for 'Hollywood' again this week. Spieth and Sullivan ew double.
In early this week to take the bits of Grillo @ 40/1 ew.... No doubt I'll follow it up with some others. Put an ew Lucky 15 on for the majors also today:- Spieth:- The Masters 16/1 Victor:- The Open 66/1 J Walker:- US Open 50/1 DJ:- USPGA 33/1 And topped up the bet on Victor for The Open, still @ 66/1- Ill join Terry on his boat if they all come in. Update:- The problem of playing poker in a foreign country is that u have too much time on your hands. Farmers Weekly in the USA (boringly I know, but 1st tournie this year last week, and started to get his eye in during the final round, and showed back end of last year that he's the only player who can match Rory) Spieth 16/1 for a bit (stingy bookies) more @ 14/1 ew. Also ew double with Grillo 14/1 @ 33/1. (See below for reasoning why 16/-14/1 big value this week ala Rory last week) Finally, also backed Spieth ew @ 16/1 for The Masters. I fully believe by tee off time he'll be a clear 2nd fav 10-12/1 ish. Posted by joesman1
What price Walker this coming week?? Don't peak too soon lads
Jeez the sharks were out early this week. I'm all over Henrik after his good showing the past two weeks, I think he's due. I could only gets bit on @ 14/1 this morning, the rest @ 12/1 ew. More to follow.....
As much as I'm not a fan of him, (and I can't remember the last time I backed him) course form dictates Keegan Bradley must be in any staking plan, ew @ 35/1 Bet365. Then I'm going oriental. A little tickle on Ryo Ishikawa ew @ 275/1 Bet365, and same with Seung-Yul Noh ew @ 175/1 Skybet.
Not interested in Portugal as its not on the TV. Hopefully be cheering Henrik home from Malta come Sunday night.
Gl all
Edit:- I've decided 28/1 about Kevin Phelan is too big in a field of hackers.... So Phelan ew it is.
Not so much time this week and originally thought I'd missed the 'value' on Henrik Stenson so backed him without Rory at 9/1, which doesn't look so bad now.
Made it a Swedish double with Johan Edfors at 66/1.
Two completely different markets this week, one with 3 players priced 10/1 and less, the other event where the favorites opened at 25/1.
Other picks for the week are:
Arnold Palmer
Harris English - 35/1 Kevin Na - 45/1 Webb Simpson - 55/1 Danny Willett - 125/1
Madeira Open
Kenneth Ferrie - 100/1 Gareth Maybin - 66/1 Carlos De Moral - 55/1 Bradley Dredge - 28/1
No clue how Stenson managed to lose that! What an absolute shocker he's had there. Posted by FlashFlush
Totally shocking from the 'Ice Man' there Charles. Esp' his three putts on the Par 5 16th. Having us three, and a few of my mates who joined in on my run good atm, was obv' far too much weight for his shoulders.
Comments
Tshwane Open
New venue for the Tshwane Open, but has been used regularly on the Sunshine Tour, so there's some course form to be found and from that I've had a bash at building photofit of the type of player that could win this.
Tight course, tree lined, but a short course by todays standards, means I think we are looking for 'ball strikers' and tee to green specialists.
Last weeks runner up Matt Ford fits the profile, but I wonder if last weeks exploits will have taken too much out of him.
Its always good to go local in these events, especially as its likely most of the foreigners will be seeing the course for the first time but for now I'm backing two foreigners that fit the potential profile of a winner:
Adrian Otaegui - 2 points ew 66/1, I'm not too bothered by the missed cut last week as young players seem to have the knack of bouncing back sooner rather than later. Before the missed cut he'd put a nice run of 25th, 12th and 10th.
The 12th place was at the tight Delhi GC, he's ranked highly on the driving accuracy and GIR stats and represents good ew value at 66/1.
John Parry - 2 points ew 90/1, finished 6th last week without really being in contention, so shouldn't be feeling any fatigue on the mental side. That was his best finish for around 18 months, he's been playing well for the last few months, since regaining his card at the tour school. Has the ability and game to plot his way around this type of course.
Valspar Championship
Lots of course form, with clear evidence that course form is important with multiple winners and the same players and types of players popping up on the leaderboards each year.
Kevin Na - 2 points ew 55/1, he was 2nd here last year but I like the fact that Kevin Na finished 8th here back in 2008, when he wasn't actually that good. He's come along way since then and last weeks under the radar tied 9th at the WGC is also ticking a good box.
Harish English - 2 points ew 40/1, got blown away in Florida 2 weeks ago, but showed plenty of form before then to suggest he is ready to win again. Tied 7th here in 2013.
Just because the course is shorter doesn't mean we should ignore bombers, so good luck with Van Der Walt, though you are going to get some serious ribbing if he does win, based on your flawed selection criteria this week
Matt Kuchar - Outright Winner
I'm sure most have noticed that Neil has been in very impressive form this year, I've been looking through Neil's picks and he has shown a remarkable knack for picking out the right players near the front of the market.
I know Neil has great knowledge for the game and puts in the time to study, there is always good logic and good reasoning for his picks, where he and I differ is that when he makes his mind up he simply gets the best price available for his player for the week and job done.
Whereas I tend to skip the market leaders looking for bigger prices and players that might shock and I maybe over analyze things.
I think I do OK, but last week was a typical example of my down fall, my main picks in the WGPC were all 3 figure prices, I had Simpson finishing 7th at 100/1 and Willet 12th at 150/1.
Not bad picks, in that I managed to pick the outsiders that played the best, but no returns for 7th and 12th.
Thankfully after round 3 I backed DJ in running at 6/1 and covered my initial outlay.
I liked DJ from the start but didn't back him as he was 'only' 20/1.
I think I've been suffering from mug punter syndrome!
So here's my Joesman1 double for this week:
Romain Wattel - 25/1, knocking on the door for a while and has been one of the most consistent players on tour over the last 6 months, no course knowledge is the only concern.
Henrik Stenson - 16/1, top quality player in a weak field this week, first time out last week and played extremely well. He should be able to put his trusty 3 wood to good use this week. Like Wattel, no course knowledge is the only concern.
Win only on Stenson, Each way single on Wattel and an ew double.
Still no local at the Tshwane for me, which is nagging away at me, I've been thinking JB Kruger, he has at least one top 5 here on the Sunshine Tour and I noticed he finished well last week, but then again the man in form is tipping Fisher Jr and I can't argue with his reasoning.
Good Luck All!!!
You'll never get me to a live event at this rate!
Shocking start for me in Africa, meant I finally went local and added JB Kruger at 70/1 ew and added an ew double with Martin Laird at 50/1.
The mug punter in me lives on
Not so much time this week and originally thought I'd missed the 'value' on Henrik Stenson so backed him without Rory at 9/1, which doesn't look so bad now.
Made it a Swedish double with Johan Edfors at 66/1.
Two completely different markets this week, one with 3 players priced 10/1 and less, the other event where the favorites opened at 25/1.
Other picks for the week are:
Arnold Palmer
Harris English - 35/1
Kevin Na - 45/1
Webb Simpson - 55/1
Danny Willett - 125/1
Madeira Open
Kenneth Ferrie - 100/1
Gareth Maybin - 66/1
Carlos De Moral - 55/1
Bradley Dredge - 28/1
Good Luck All!