In first this week, although I bet Mr Strike will have 1 of my Morocco picks.
Trophee Hassan II
David Horsey - 33/1 - Seems to love this course and with a T10 last time out at the Tshwane Open, I feel he's setting up for a big week.
Paul Waring - 50/1 - Seems to be one of those players that if he doesn't miss the CUT he gets a top 20 finish. The last 2 years at this event have been the latter for him. T13 at the Joburg open last time out and a T3 a few weeks before that. Surely going to get his first win soon.
Jorge Campillo - 100/1 - There always tends to be a Spaniard or 2 contending in this event, and apart from his missed CUT at the Tshwarne, Jorge is showing some good form. His results have been improving here year on year, and with T11 last year I think 100/1 is too big.
Valero Texas Open
Charley Hoffman - 50/1 - Nobody has better form here than Charley. Although his current form isn't ideal, he has still done enough to be 12th in the Fedex race, and last week shows if you love a certain course then form is irrelevant.
Matt Kuchar - 25/1 - Had a quiet but solid start to the year. Looking back through the years, that seems to be a regular trend of his, and he comes alive at this stage of the year ready for the Masters. 4th here last year. Would be surprised to see him not contending.
Hi Charles yep I looked at Horsey, as this is DEFO a horsey for coursey course. But I backed him in running the other week, and when he hit the front he played very poorly, so I'm leaving him alone, good luck to u with him though.
I might sound a bit repetitive here, but my 1st bet is Sullivan, and I took the early 28/1 ew with Stan James as its out of line. I'm likening this to the Joburg Open the other week. He finished 5th there last year, then won this year. Here, he came 2nd last year when still getting his eye in on the tour, so I expect him to kick on from it this year. Yep he'd gone off the boil his last two outings. But he'd played many weeks on the trot, and was missing his new born. After two weeks rest and changing nappies, I think he'll be raring to go. - A VERY solid pick imo this week. My 2nd choice is Grillo @ 25/1 ew. His one outing here resulted in a joint 11th place two years ago. A better player now who has had a few weeks away from the tour, he won't be far away. I'll come back later in the week with a 'rag' or two.
Meanwhile over The Pond, and thinking back to my message last week, I've backed Walker ew @ 25/1 with Boylesports, and also on Zach Johnson ew @ 28/1 (I won't touch Betfred who are a standout 35/1) who showed some form over the weekend. I'll DEFO be backing a Texan before tee off time.
GL all
Edit:- Found my Texan.... Tried my best leaving him alone, but cannot, but also not prepared to back him at 8/1. At the end of the day, he's by far the most likely winner. Course form last year, massively in form this year. Went back to back pre Xmas. Having next week off so can focus on this week before The Masters. But as I said, didn't fancy 8/1 for some reason, even though he's only 4 points bigger for The Masters. So I'm on him @ 79/1. The only problem being that the following have to win too:- Triple Dip, Seven Nation Army, Tijan, Watersmeet, Aussies to beat India tomoz. Then finally Spieth.
In recent weeks Kevin Na and Harris English have given me a good run for my money, but ultimately its the bookies that have run away with my money.
I can't make up my mind as to if I should keep the faith, first reaction has been to look elsewhere.
Valero Texas Open
Matt Jones - 50/1, his last 3 tournaments suggest he's a man in form. I haven't seen too much golf recently but watch last weeks final round and thought Matt Jones hit some great golf shots (apart from the one where he put it in that garden for an OB and said a naughty word that Mark Roe had to apologize to us for hearing it). Won the Houston Open in Texas last year, could be about to win his second event in Texas.
Martin Laird - 45/1, won this event 2 years ago and has been playing very well recently.
Kevin Chappell -125/1, I had a look at the picks on here 12 months ago and both Neil and I backed Chappell in this event last year at 40/1 and 50/1 (I got the 50/1). Not that it mattered as Chappell missed the cut.
Chappell has missed the last 3 cuts, however he missed 3 cuts before this event in 2011 and went on to finish 2nd.
I wrote last year that the course should suit his game and stats, no time for studying this year, so I'll take me word for it and give Chappell another chance.
I don't go back over the years on this thread too often, but interestingly ( for me anyway), was that I came across Splashies update to the thread title naming my turbo win in the main, exactly 12 months ago.
As some golfers tend to play well at the same time of year, I'm off to see if I can duplicate that tendency on the poker tables and run into form or luck, just as I did 12 months ago and see if I can win the Turbo main again.
EDIT: Came 14th in the Main Turbo last night, probably my best result in that even since I won it 12 months ago.
Meanwhile over The Pond, and thinking back to my message last week, I've backed Walker ew @ 25/1 with Boylesports, and also on Zach Johnson ew @ 28/1 (I won't touch Betfred who are a standout 35/1) who showed some form over the weekend. I'll DEFO be backing a Texan before tee off time. GL all Edit:- Found my Texan.... Tried my best leaving him alone, but cannot, but also not prepared to back him at 8/1. At the end of the day, he's by far the most likely winner. Course form last year, massively in form this year. Went back to back pre Xmas. Having next week off so can focus on this week before The Masters. But as I said, didn't fancy 8/1 for some reason, even though he's only 4 points bigger for The Masters. So I'm on him @ 79/1. The only problem being that the following have to win too:- Triple Dip, Seven Nation Army, Tijan, Watersmeet, Aussies to beat India tomoz. Then finally Spieth. Gl me as I'll need it. Posted by joesman1
Lol, wondered if you would go for Spieth again and why not!
Those triple dip sandwiches on Man v Food always look mouth watering, so good luck with that.
By the way your Texan in this event last year was Ryan Palmer......................just saying.
Here's a little tip for you all. A friend of mine has turned pro this year and is trying to make it on the Europro tour and Jamega tour. He has his first Europro qualifying event next week at the Players club and he said he is playing well and really fancies his chances. He is somebody who lives for golf and puts every bit of effort in so he will be 100% up for this.
He is currently going off at 66/1. I've had a couple of quid e/w but I might increase that after speaking to him directly.
He played the open qualifying last year and missed out on getting to the final stage on count back so the kid can definitely play.
Anyway Matt Mumford - Europro qualifying - Players club - 66/1. (Think it starts Tuesday next week, 31st March and a 2 day event).
Little extra info, he currently holds the course record for his home course, he is also the club champion. This is the same course that the favourite (Martin Sell who is 8/1) plays at.
In recent weeks Kevin Na and Harris English have given me a good run for my money, but ultimately its the bookies that have run away with my money. I can't make up my mind as to if I should keep the faith, first reaction has been to look elsewhere. Valero Texas Open Matt Jones - 50/1, his last 3 tournaments suggest he's a man in form. I haven't seen too much golf recently but watch last weeks final round and thought Matt Jones hit some great golf shots (apart from the one where he put it in that garden for an OB and said a naughty word that Mark Roe had to apologize to us for hearing it). Won the Houston Open in Texas last year, could be about to win his second event in Texas. Martin Laird - 45/1, won this event 2 years ago and has been playing very well recently. Kevin Chappell -125/1, I had a look at the picks on here 12 months ago and both Neil and I backed Chappell in this event last year at 40/1 and 50/1 (I got the 50/1). Not that it mattered as Chappell missed the cut. Chappell has missed the last 3 cuts, however he missed 3 cuts before this event in 2011 and went on to finish 2nd. I wrote last year that the course should suit his game and stats, no time for studying this year, so I'll take me word for it and give Chappell another chance. I don't go back over the years on this thread too often, but interestingly ( for me anyway), was that I came across Splashies update to the thread title naming my turbo win in the main, exactly 12 months ago. As some golfers tend to play well at the same time of year, I'm off to see if I can duplicate that tendency on the poker tables and run into form or luck, just as I did 12 months ago and see if I can win the Turbo main again. EDIT: Came 14th in the Main Turbo last night, probably my best result in that even since I won it 12 months ago. Good Luck me and all!!! Posted by TheDart
I thought I'd look back and see everyone's picks for last year too. Had a right chuckle to myself, the main topic of conversation was me fancying Charley Hull (Still do) and you fancying Graham McDowell. Think it must be something in the name Graham that gets you all flustered,
Right, own up. Who lumped on him? He's gone from 66/1 straight to 40/1 Posted by FlashFlush
On this occasion I'm not guilty Your Honour. I wouldn't even know what bookies would take the bets. Though as its u, I'd strongly suspect it's Skybet??
I was about to sound a note of caution though. Darty is (hopefully in one piece) flying over the Med' atm, and he'll spit his drink out when he reads this....... But he knows only too well about the perils of golfers twittering etc.... They talk a good game, the same way we do about poker. And it seems that 'next week' is THE week. They've 'found it' on the range etc... But what do I know? I'm just a 'twitter less fool'.
I'd also strongly suspect that they take very VERY few bets on these golf events. So ANY money, no matter how small will shift prices, as it would be easier to make more money contriving a result than the money on offer for winning it.
Yeah I did think that would be the case regarding the odds being cut. Everytime I see him post about playing a tournament though, he does seem to be right up there. Whether its the club championships or bigger events. It may well be like how certain poker players will only pipe up if they get a win after the event and will never dare mention their losses or give updates during a game.
Fingers crossed for him though, he loves the game. He's only 20 so got loads of time to try and break through even if his first year doesn't go to plan.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Arnold Palmer + Madeira Open) : Lol, wondered if you would go for Spieth again and why not! Those triple dip sandwiches on Man v Food always look mouth watering, so good luck with that. By the way your Texan in this event last year was Ryan Palmer......................just saying. Posted by TheDart
Yeah I remember and if I hadn't already backed Zachery, I'd be on him. But if my 'Triple Dip Sarnie' comes in, and Mark Wallis wins The Trainers Champs tonight (long story), I'll add Palmer to my book for the week.
'Triple Dip Sarnie' coming in??? Wowzer!!! Mr Triple Dip himself couldn't win at 1/20!! So in I went again..... And Poppy Bond 2/1.. Watersmeet 10/11.... And Whatasham 4/11 onto Mr Spieth @ 8/1, will be a 67.5/1 jobby.
Think I'd better keep quiet about reading historical posts on this thread, too many skeletons!
I did follow Flashes tip for his mate and snapped up the 66/1 yesterday morning.
Can't imagine it was solely my money that had the bookies running scared, though then again as Neil says, there probably isn't that much money placed on these markets, so it wouldn't take much.
'Triple Dip Sarnie' coming in??? Wowzer!!! Mr Triple Dip himself couldn't win at 1/20!! So in I went again..... And Poppy Bond 2/1.. Watersmeet 10/11.... And Whatasham 4/11 onto Mr Spieth @ 8/1, will be a 67.5/1 jobby. Posted by joesman1
If I'm not mistaken, me mentioning Triple Dip was enough to make a 1/20 shot fail.
However the above bet is looking good and you now have your 67.5/1 on Jordan Spieth?
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Valero Texas Open + Trophee Hassan II) : If I'm not mistaken, me mentioning Triple Dip was enough to make a 1/20 shot fail. However the above bet is looking good and you now have your 67.5/1 on Jordan Spieth? Posted by TheDart
Yep believe it or not, u managed to get the shortest priced horse I can remember beaten. It's offiicial, you my friend are something special, in fact I'm pretty sure that u could stop a waterfall!!
Meanwhile over The Pond, and thinking back to my message last week, I've backed Walker ew @ 25/1 with Boylesports, and also on Zach Johnson ew @ 28/1 (I won't touch Betfred who are a standout 35/1) who showed some form over the weekend. I'll DEFO be backing a Texan before tee off time. GL all Edit:- Found my Texan.... Tried my best leaving him alone, but cannot, but also not prepared to back him at 8/1. At the end of the day, he's by far the most likely winner. Course form last year, massively in form this year. Went back to back pre Xmas. Having next week off so can focus on this week before The Masters. But as I said, didn't fancy 8/1 for some reason, even though he's only 4 points bigger for The Masters. So I'm on him @ 79/1. The only problem being that the following have to win too:- Triple Dip, Seven Nation Army, Tijan, Watersmeet, Aussies to beat India tomoz. Then finally Spieth. Gl me as I'll need it. Posted by joesman1
Congratulations on yet another winner, keep up the good work.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Phoenix Open + Dubai Classic) : What price Walker this coming week?? Don't peak too soon lads Posted by joesman1
Must be allowed to highlight this one? He didn't play last week.... Always the case with me, climax far too soon.
In early this week to take the bits of Grillo @ 40/1 ew.... No doubt I'll follow it up with some others. Put an ew Lucky 15 on for the majors also today:- Spieth:- The Masters 16/1 Victor:- The Open 66/1 J Walker:- US Open 50/1 DJ:- USPGA 33/1 And topped up the bet on Victor for The Open, still @ 66/1- Ill join Terry on his boat if they all come in. Update:- The problem of playing poker in a foreign country is that u have too much time on your hands. Farmers Weekly in the USA (boringly I know, but 1st tournie this year last week, and started to get his eye in during the final round, and showed back end of last year that he's the only player who can match Rory) Spieth 16/1 for a bit (stingy bookies) more @ 14/1 ew. Also ew double with Grillo 14/1 @ 33/1. (See below for reasoning why 16/-14/1 big value this week ala Rory last week) Finally, also backed Spieth ew @ 16/1 for The Masters. I fully believe by tee off time he'll be a clear 2nd fav 10-12/1 ish. Posted by joesman1
Had to get the highlighter out again.... (this is where a smug/smiley face would be). I have it on good authority from Mr Dart that Victor is sharpening his tools this week. I won't be backing him though.
Comments
I can't make up my mind as to if I should keep the faith, first reaction has been to look elsewhere.
Valero Texas Open
Matt Jones - 50/1, his last 3 tournaments suggest he's a man in form. I haven't seen too much golf recently but watch last weeks final round and thought Matt Jones hit some great golf shots (apart from the one where he put it in that garden for an OB and said a naughty word that Mark Roe had to apologize to us for hearing it).
Won the Houston Open in Texas last year, could be about to win his second event in Texas.
Martin Laird - 45/1, won this event 2 years ago and has been playing very well recently.
Kevin Chappell -125/1, I had a look at the picks on here 12 months ago and both Neil and I backed Chappell in this event last year at 40/1 and 50/1 (I got the 50/1). Not that it mattered as Chappell missed the cut.
Chappell has missed the last 3 cuts, however he missed 3 cuts before this event in 2011 and went on to finish 2nd.
I wrote last year that the course should suit his game and stats, no time for studying this year, so I'll take me word for it and give Chappell another chance.
I don't go back over the years on this thread too often, but interestingly ( for me anyway), was that I came across Splashies update to the thread title naming my turbo win in the main, exactly 12 months ago.
As some golfers tend to play well at the same time of year, I'm off to see if I can duplicate that tendency on the poker tables and run into form or luck, just as I did 12 months ago and see if I can win the Turbo main again.
EDIT: Came 14th in the Main Turbo last night, probably my best result in that even since I won it 12 months ago.
Good Luck me and all!!!
Those triple dip sandwiches on Man v Food always look mouth watering, so good luck with that.
By the way your Texan in this event last year was Ryan Palmer......................just saying.
At the beginning of the year I looked at this schedule and picked this event out as the most likely for Matthew Baldwin to get his first win.
Of course I've thrown a few quid away on Baldwin already this year, but this was always THE event, so I'm sticking to that at 100/1.
In fact in for a penny in for a pound on Matthew Baldwin this week;
Outright - 100/1 ew
FRL - 80/1 ew
Top Englishman 25/1 ew
Top 10 - 8/1
The backup plan is:
Marcel Siem - 25/1, previous winner and looked good at the WGC a few weeks back.
Pablo Larrzabal - 30/1, good course form.
Byeong Hun An - 45/1, some excellent results this year and I feel this course and conditions should suit his game.
Think I'd better keep quiet about reading historical posts on this thread, too many skeletons!
I did follow Flashes tip for his mate and snapped up the 66/1 yesterday morning.
Can't imagine it was solely my money that had the bookies running scared, though then again as Neil says, there probably isn't that much money placed on these markets, so it wouldn't take much.
However the above bet is looking good and you now have your 67.5/1 on Jordan Spieth?