I backed Bryce Molder at 150/1 last week and confess I wasn't goint to back him this week, but with Flash picking Molder this week, I felt obliged to have a small dabble myself.
I've doubled him with Damien McGrane at 150/1, I was already on McGrane at 100/1, which was best price at the time, but I'm not letting the bookies beat me, not sure why he is so big, perhaps someone in the know, saw my picks and decided it was safe to push McGrane out to 150/1
In a total Damien McGrane love in, I've backed him at 22/1 ew 1/4 odds first 3 for top Irishman.
With the leading 3, Rory, GMac and Padraig all priced 9/2 or less and all with indifferent form, I think Lowry and even Sean Thornton could be bigger threats and see McGrane as having a great chance of making top 3.
All of Justin Rose's odds have disappeared so looks like he has WD, good job we got in early, because all the shorter priced players have been slashed :-)
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Irish Open + AT&T) Year Profit: +669.56pts : How come you use the 1st round market so much? Like others have said before, it's so hard to get the winner going on just 1 round, and a lot of the time there is a tie at the top. You know if you're betting on outright 72 holes you will only get 1 winner because of the play-offs, but even picking a 1st round leader can get watered down so much. Posted by FlashFlush
Mr Bell likes his golf bets to mirror his sex life..... Why go for the long haul, when u can have a wham bam thank u mam bet!!
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Irish Open + AT&T) Year Profit: +669.56pts : Mr Bell likes his golf bets to mirror his sex life..... Why go for the long haul, when u can have a wham bam thank u mam bet!! Posted by joesman1
I've been on Facebook too long, I just mentally clicked 'like' on this!
value i guess. why do you back a guy at 20/1 for outright when in theory and reality youll probs still get the same price on last few holes on a sunday if a few off lead and probably at least double the price the next day if not a hot start. whereas if the guy youve backed has a great start then **** be short in the betting after day 1 but still has the mountain to climb for next 3 days. with first round u can get this side wrapped up early doors if successful on the thursday, and if not yet at the top table after 18 holes but you still want to get inolved for the outright market then you can do so at a bigger price, albeit forfeiting at least a place so i do majority of outright in running and have a seperate sweat on the thursday. thats why i like it
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Irish Open + AT&T) Year Profit: +669.56pts : Mr Bell likes his golf bets to mirror his sex life..... Why go for the long haul, when u can have a wham bam thank u mam bet!! Posted by joesman1
lol or 2 pumps and a squirt as we say in Belfast. i can assure you i am a much more caring and sensual lover than that, and if you dont believe me you can ask my partner but first you'll need to blow her up (not in the Belfast sense this time thankfully......)
flat out with work and my wee fellas birthday so only got round to looking at my bets there now.
Last week was a tale of two tours had bjorn and noren both placing on the euro tour and duffner and colesarts both missing the cut on the pga tour so made a small return on my bets.
In both this weeks tournaments I can't say I really fancy anyone which normally means I shouldn't bet but hey ho lol overall thoughts:
Irish open - gmac and mcilroy are the favourites but I cant see them winning. There's the media attention they'll get, their indifferent form at present and their short odds make them unbackable. Also got a feeling gmac performs better when he's an underdog and can sneak under the radar somewhat. harringtons too unpredictable but its easy to see why so many have went with lowry. Assuming 1 of the top 5 don't win I think you could make an argument for about 20 different players so I think this one is wide open.
AT&T - again the top 6 all priced 25/1 or less doesn't appeal to me especially again as I don't have any strong reasons to really go for any of them. I can think of too many reasons not to fancy each of them. I was tempted by delaet (he has to win sooner or later given his form) but again 33/1 didn't really encourage me given the doubts regarding his ability to finish a tournament off.
Based on the above I've went for those I see more value in. Probably all fall flat on their faces by end of play Thursday.
Irish Open
Peter Uihlein 45/1 in decent form with a finishes of 1, T8, T10, T12 and T21 in his last 6 tournaments. t12 was at wentworth suggesting uk climate isn't any major problem for him.
Richard Sterne 45/1 only missed 1 cut in last 15 starts and had a previous good result here in 2006 (T9).
AT&T
Marc Leishman 66/1 what graham delaet is to the dart Marc Leishman is to me lol I think he's got a reasonably solid game but just needs more consistency to contend more often.
Ryan Palmer 40/1 finished a credible t15 in this event last year despite carding two 74 rounds. T5 at the players and T4 at st judes in recent weeks encourages me to have a punt on him.
Also did some first round leaders after flash talked about them lol all ew doubles:
Irish open
Simon Dyson 80/1 Robert Rock 80/1
Both struggling this year and just hoping 1 of them will find a bit of form playing a course under uk conditions
AT&T
Charles Howell 50/1 Ricky Barnes 100/1
I seem to notice barnes throwing in the occasional very low round and howell seems to have a decent record here. Nearly put howell in my outright bet but he always seems to waste any opportunity he has to push on any time I see him close to contention after rounds 1 and 2.
Good luck to everyone on their bets this week as always!!!!
Nice picks JD and I like your strategy, I guess one top 5 from any of those bets and you'll be showing a decent profit from the week.
The more I think about it the more I like Ryan Palmers chances, I see he's got a morning tee time and has form for first round scoring, so with all this talk of first round leader bets, I might back him for first round leader.
Nice picks JD and I like your strategy, I guess one top 5 from any of those bets and you'll be showing a decent profit from the week. The more I think about it the more I like Ryan Palmers chances, I see he's got a morning tee time and has form for first round scoring, so with all this talk of first round leader bets, I might back him for first round leader. Posted by TheDart
I don't know anymore lol I put them on last night after a VERY long day and when I looked at them in the cold light of day this morning I felt a lot less confident haha never know though
mcilroy and gmac may not win but i doubt u can put that down to media attention theyre multiple ryder cup winners and us open champions and most importantly professional sportsmen, i thnk theyre used to doing a few interviews by now tbh
mcilroy and gmac may not win but i doubt u can put that down to media attention theyre multiple ryder cup winners and us open champions and most importantly professional sportsmen, i thnk theyre used to doing a few interviews by now tbh Posted by BELL_POKER
As an Ulsterman myself from Holywood of all places I'm certainly not doubting their professionalism or ability to deal with the media I'm just saying they are the focal point for the majority of the media at the event and every fan will be chasing them before, during and after their rounds and that can only be a drawback in my eyes.
I've also got a feeling mcilroy wouldn't concern himself too much if he didn't play well in this one. gmac on the other hand I think would love to win it - just my opinion anyway.
form and odds make them unbackable for me also but Rory in particular is the focal point of all the media attention after Mr Woods in every single event and wont be anything like what he would of got in lead up to congressional etc and also fans arent media - theyve already both said how theyre looking forward to all the support from the fans and that theyll enjoy it because of the huge support they will have so theyve answered that one themselves - ill not be backing either of them this weekend but if and when they fail to land it the mass hype from either media nor fans will have little bearing on any failures
G mac has openly come out and said its on his bucket list so your right on that front.
can see G Mac being close to top 10 berth and nice prep for mid July
form and odds make them unbackable for me also but Rory in particular is the focal point of all the media attention after Mr Woods in every single event and wont be anything like what he would of got in lead up to congressional etc and also fans arent media - theyve already both said how theyre looking forward to all the support from the fans and that theyll enjoy it because of the huge support they will have so theyve answered that one themselves - ill not be backing either of them this weekend but if and when they fail to land it the mass hype from either media nor fans will have little bearing on any failures G mac has openly come out and said its on his bucket list so your right on that front. can see G Mac being close to top 10 berth and nice prep for mid July Posted by BELL_POKER
Would they ever say anything else?! I dunno maybe they'll thrive with it!
I just think with it being their home tournament there's just the added weight of expectation to do well that will be applied by the media and fans alike that won't help either of their games in my opinion. I'm not saying it's a huge factor by any means but a factor nonetheless for me. Their recent form for me is more of a factor. oh and rory's dislike of the wind lol
I'd love to see gmac win it though even if it did ruin my bets.
lol yes rory the only lirishman who cant play in the wind!! mind boggles!!!
he has just had a comment ive read on sporting life where in the same sentance he has suggested as you said that he has felt suffocated in past irish opens with all the support then in same sentance contradicts himself by calling the support a great privelege!!!! so me and you have no chance in figuring it out if he doesnt know himself!!!! ; )
That's why I love golf and that's what makes golf so difficult to play and to bet on, its not just about ability its about what's between the ears and handling the pressure.
The more I've followed the build up to this event the more I feel if anyone is going to be affected by the mental side of the game this week, it's going to be Shane Lowry, I know it's his home course, I know he's talking a good game, I know he comes into the event in good form, but he might be just a little bit too naive and I think he could just as easily miss the cut as be competing on the back 9 come Sunday.
I'm actually twitching at the moment, considering dropping Lowry from my fantasy team and putting Ross Fisher in his place.
It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow, I'm really looking forward to seeing how things pan out.
I'm not liking the fact Flash has beaten me to Lowry. I had him in my fantasy team last week so was obv keeping an eye on him, and I always had him on my mind for this week. But I won't destroy your chances by putting him up. Harrington was gonna be my 2nd choice.... I'm not deserting him though, I think he's a major player this week. Mclroy just doesn't like wind, rain, and links. McDowell has lost his game for now. So for me, Padraig should be the fav. I'll post my back up/s later on. Posted by joesman1
Decided to go 50/50 Harrington and Fisher both ew 20/1 and 25/1... Gl all
Comments
I backed Bryce Molder at 150/1 last week and confess I wasn't goint to back him this week, but with Flash picking Molder this week, I felt obliged to have a small dabble myself.
I've doubled him with Damien McGrane at 150/1, I was already on McGrane at 100/1, which was best price at the time, but I'm not letting the bookies beat me, not sure why he is so big, perhaps someone in the know, saw my picks and decided it was safe to push McGrane out to 150/1
In a total Damien McGrane love in, I've backed him at 22/1 ew 1/4 odds first 3 for top Irishman.
With the leading 3, Rory, GMac and Padraig all priced 9/2 or less and all with indifferent form, I think Lowry and even Sean Thornton could be bigger threats and see McGrane as having a great chance of making top 3.
It will be interesting to see how he gets on.
flat out with work and my wee fellas birthday so only got round to looking at my bets there now.
Last week was a tale of two tours had bjorn and noren both placing on the euro tour and duffner and colesarts both missing the cut on the pga tour so made a small return on my bets.
In both this weeks tournaments I can't say I really fancy anyone which normally means I shouldn't bet but hey ho lol overall thoughts:
Irish open - gmac and mcilroy are the favourites but I cant see them winning. There's the media attention they'll get, their indifferent form at present and their short odds make them unbackable. Also got a feeling gmac performs better when he's an underdog and can sneak under the radar somewhat. harringtons too unpredictable but its easy to see why so many have went with lowry. Assuming 1 of the top 5 don't win I think you could make an argument for about 20 different players so I think this one is wide open.
AT&T - again the top 6 all priced 25/1 or less doesn't appeal to me especially again as I don't have any strong reasons to really go for any of them. I can think of too many reasons not to fancy each of them. I was tempted by delaet (he has to win sooner or later given his form) but again 33/1 didn't really encourage me given the doubts regarding his ability to finish a tournament off.
Based on the above I've went for those I see more value in. Probably all fall flat on their faces by end of play Thursday.
Irish Open
Peter Uihlein 45/1 in decent form with a finishes of 1, T8, T10, T12 and T21 in his last 6 tournaments. t12 was at wentworth suggesting uk climate isn't any major problem for him.
Richard Sterne 45/1 only missed 1 cut in last 15 starts and had a previous good result here in 2006 (T9).
AT&T
Marc Leishman 66/1 what graham delaet is to the dart Marc Leishman is to me lol I think he's got a reasonably solid game but just needs more consistency to contend more often.
Ryan Palmer 40/1 finished a credible t15 in this event last year despite carding two 74 rounds. T5 at the players and T4 at st judes in recent weeks encourages me to have a punt on him.
Also did some first round leaders after flash talked about them lol all ew doubles:
Irish open
Simon Dyson 80/1
Robert Rock 80/1
Both struggling this year and just hoping 1 of them will find a bit of form playing a course under uk conditions
AT&T
Charles Howell 50/1
Ricky Barnes 100/1
I seem to notice barnes throwing in the occasional very low round and howell seems to have a decent record here. Nearly put howell in my outright bet but he always seems to waste any opportunity he has to push on any time I see him close to contention after rounds 1 and 2.
Good luck to everyone on their bets this week as always!!!!
The more I think about it the more I like Ryan Palmers chances, I see he's got a morning tee time and has form for first round scoring, so with all this talk of first round leader bets, I might back him for first round leader.
I've also got a feeling mcilroy wouldn't concern himself too much if he didn't play well in this one. gmac on the other hand I think would love to win it - just my opinion anyway.
odds are too short on them for me regardless.
I just think with it being their home tournament there's just the added weight of expectation to do well that will be applied by the media and fans alike that won't help either of their games in my opinion. I'm not saying it's a huge factor by any means but a factor nonetheless for me. Their recent form for me is more of a factor. oh and rory's dislike of the wind lol
I'd love to see gmac win it though even if it did ruin my bets.
The more I've followed the build up to this event the more I feel if anyone is going to be affected by the mental side of the game this week, it's going to be Shane Lowry, I know it's his home course, I know he's talking a good game, I know he comes into the event in good form, but he might be just a little bit too naive and I think he could just as easily miss the cut as be competing on the back 9 come Sunday.
I'm actually twitching at the moment, considering dropping Lowry from my fantasy team and putting Ross Fisher in his place.
It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow, I'm really looking forward to seeing how things pan out.
With the cricket over with until The Ashes this is probably a good week to watch a golf tournament!
Seen a couple of mentions for Cabrera Bello @ a fun price, hopefully he'll get on the tele!
Could only get 66/1, £2 ew!
Hope the thread heater continues at least another week! gl all.
learning slowly!
A.T &T
Adam Scott @11/1 £10win
Jason Day @14/1 £8 win
Hunter Mahan @16/1 £7 win
For outsiders I have gone for!
Bo Van Pelt @ 30/1 £4 win
Nick Watney @50/1 £1 e/w
Jeff Overton @100/1 £1 e/w