In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Italian Open + Tour Championship) : welcome back dart! ps where do you go all the time? lol Posted by jdsallstar
Cheers JD.
I work for the Turks and on this last trip I was in Thailand and China.
Splashies - only seen highlights of woods but he looked like he had a fun round On the upside I see Quesne is going well today -4 thru 10 and 1 off the lead (albeit the leaders haven't tee'd off yet.)
TheDart - sounds like you get around lol castro and delaet off to solid starts and Kingston certainly not out of it.
Decided to get back in on the action a bit late this week, not following my previous staking plan anymore. Tour Championship Tiger Woods Win @ 9/2 Italian Open Matteo Manassero Win @ 14/1 Julien Quesne e/w @ 80/1 Posted by splashies
Great pick.
Didn't even know this bloke existed let alone back him.
His results for the year are pretty average, what made you pick him if you don't mind me asking.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Italian Open + Tour Championship) Year Profit: +554.96pts : Great pick. Didn't even know this bloke existed let alone back him. His results for the year are pretty average, what made you pick him if you don't mind me asking. Posted by achill
Was a bit of a punt as there werent too many with good course form when I was looking. I remember when he won last year when I'd never heard of him, so he's been on the radar since then. He had a good week in Holland and is steady off the tee, so was a massive punt really. Most of my eggs were in Manassero's basket though, so yeh still a surprising winner.
done my bets early this week because it's been a slow work day lol
Alfred Dunhill
Ross Fisher 25/1 - two top 5's in last two starts and some solid scores in this event although not spectacular by any stretch. (£5 free bet on this one)
Alex Noren 50/1 - Been out for a while now with a wrist injury which I think has pushed him out to a good price for someone who would be normally in the 30-40/1 bracket. He nearly played last week but pulled out last minute so hoping it was just a precaution and he's ready to go this week. 3rd in this event in 2012. Only worrying point is according to his twitter account he's in Oklahoma and not in Scotland practising lol
Should be very calm conditions, mix that in with links courses and that makes for low scoring. I've gone for 3 people who smash the ball miles, so a lot of the holes should be just wedges in. (A few at St Andrews will be drivable for these.)
Brooks Koepka - 55/1 - 2nd in driving distance. Poor performance last week missing the cut, but the course wouldn't of suited him.
Victor Dubuisson - 45/1 - 23rd in driving distance. 3rd last time out at the Omega Masters and a 5th here last year. 45/1 is very very generous!
Louis Oosthuizen - 40/1 - 18th in driving distance. Has good history at these types of courses, he is well out of form, but I backed him at the start of the season, and if he wins now when I'm not on him I'll be gutted.
I'm in trouble this week, I've got my shortlist down to 8, but am struggling to find the bottle or reasoning to drop anyone from my final 8. Posted by TheDart
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Italian Open + Tour Championship) : Who's the 8? lol Posted by jdsallstar
The 8 are:
Victor Dubuisson - 50/1 Danny Willett - 50/1 Fredrik Andersson Hed - 80/1 Mikko Ilonen - 80/1 John Parry - 100/1 Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 100/1 Matthew Baldwin - 150/1 Tom Lewis - 175/1
I admit better judges than me would dismiss most if not all of those players, but for me they are good links players priced at very generous odds.
If I just look at current form, maybe I can take a few out.
and then there is Martin Kaymer, a player I have been very keen on in recent months, but ruled him out this week because he is 22/1 favourite.
On reflection a 22/1 winner wouldn't be that bad, but I really don't like backing players near the head of the field in golf events, I just don't believe it's a long term winning strategy.
Dyson 25/1 £2.50 e/w cash Gallacher 33/1 £2.50 e/w cash Dubuisson 45/1 £2.50 e/w free bet Andersson Hed 80/1 £2.50 e/w free bet Posting early as i'm off golfing in Spain on Thursday. Be lucky Posted by achill
Well I've managed to thin my shortlist down to 6, but then added a 7th!
In groups of priority:
Main Bets this week:
Danny Willett 50/1, hit and miss season, but still managed 15th place in The Open and has two top 5's in this event, excellent links player at a very good price. I can't remember anyone else on here ever tipping him, which has always surprised me as I think he's one of the top players on tour and believe only injuries have held him back this year. If fully fit and he gets off to a good start, he could cruise to victory, I believe he can be that good!
Matthew Baldwin 150/1, I've been tempted to back Baldwin in a few of the events recently as I like his game a lot and think he's playing very well just under the radar. In my opinion his strength on links courses must be worth at least a shot a round, so with an improving overall game and back 'at home' on Links courses, I am excited about the value on offer for Matthew Baldwin this week, I've also had savers at 12/1 for top 10 and 9/2 for top 20 finishes.
Fredrik Andersson-Hed - 80/1, posted a few weeks ago, how good guy this guy is when he is on his A game and it's just a matter of catching him on a good run, he missed the cut that week! Anyway a 4th place last week would suggest the A game is definitely coming back and he has top 5 form at this event, a big price if everything clicks this week.
The Lesser bets
Vicotr Dubuisson - 50/1, I've been 'supporting' Victor for a few months and he's rewarded me twice with top 5 finishes, looks to have all the right credentials this week.
John Parry - 100/1, Rewarded my faith last time I backed him when placed at 80/1, I can't leave him out this week, still nicely under the radar and finished third here a couple of years ago.
Tom Lewis - 175/1, I don't quite know what's going on with this guy, he's in real danger of losing his card, yet appears to show up on leaderboards more than most, problem is he has a habit of shooting low rounds one day and follow it up with a score 10 shots or more worse than the previous day. I'm hoping playing the first three days on different courses might keep his game focused. Of course this is the player that lead The Open after day 1 two years ago, so can obviously play a bit of Links golf.
Thomas Aitken - 90/1, Late entry to my portfolio this week, as Bell Poker will tell you, Aitken loves Links golf and is quite good at it! He's another hit and miss player, but has showed snippets of form in recent weeks and at 90/1 in this event, I think he's worth an ew punt.
Comments
I work for the Turks and on this last trip I was in Thailand and China.
TheDart - sounds like you get around lol castro and delaet off to solid starts and Kingston certainly not out of it.
so why back woods instead of stenson?
had a £10 win double on stenson and Molinari to make the weekends golf interesting.
be lucky.
Very well done Splashies!!!
Didn't even know this bloke existed let alone back him.
His results for the year are pretty average, what made you pick him if you don't mind me asking.
Alfred Dunhill
Ross Fisher 25/1 - two top 5's in last two starts and some solid scores in this event although not spectacular by any stretch. (£5 free bet on this one)
Alex Noren 50/1 - Been out for a while now with a wrist injury which I think has pushed him out to a good price for someone who would be normally in the 30-40/1 bracket. He nearly played last week but pulled out last minute so hoping it was just a precaution and he's ready to go this week. 3rd in this event in 2012. Only worrying point is according to his twitter account he's in Oklahoma and not in Scotland practising lol
Victor Dubuisson - 50/1
Danny Willett - 50/1
Fredrik Andersson Hed - 80/1
Mikko Ilonen - 80/1
John Parry - 100/1
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 100/1
Matthew Baldwin - 150/1
Tom Lewis - 175/1
I admit better judges than me would dismiss most if not all of those players, but for me they are good links players priced at very generous odds.
If I just look at current form, maybe I can take a few out.
and then there is Martin Kaymer, a player I have been very keen on in recent months, but ruled him out this week because he is 22/1 favourite.
On reflection a 22/1 winner wouldn't be that bad, but I really don't like backing players near the head of the field in golf events, I just don't believe it's a long term winning strategy.
Gallacher 33/1 £2.50 e/w cash
Dubuisson 45/1 £2.50 e/w free bet
Andersson Hed 80/1 £2.50 e/w free bet
Posting early as i'm off golfing in Spain on Thursday.
Be lucky