Both Gmac and Johnson bogey'ed the first - 11 shots off the lead after 1 hole ps see casey going well again - he has to be a half decent bet in the future. Maybe the open championship?! Posted by jdsallstar
+1 on the Paul Casey watch and maybe worth an ante post for The Open, though he might not be in it yet?
Lol Splashies, just noticed the change of Title Thread for the week, I like it Fish, Neil? Takes one to know one As for the golf, just seen that GMac's opened with a bogey and looking at the top of the leaderboard it could be game over already. Posted by TheDart
Right then, looks like I'm going to have to be the one to drag this thread back on to page 1!
After another blank last week, I applied my usual tactics of a bit of research, a bit of the memory and a bit of the gut instinct,then backed my picks early to beat the bookies.
This strategy has recently been akin to going 1-0 up at half time and finishing by losing 2-1, in other words I look good early on and end up with nothing!
I did the same on Monday, looking at the prices of my picks, its TheDart 1 The Bookies 0.
However, be warned I have since been very busy studying stats and using an observation, Dohhhhhhh once contributed to this thread, I have thrown plenty of muck this week, I just hope some of it sticks.
So Old Dart strategy:
Valero Texas Open
Fredrick Jacobson - 35/1, good course record, been playing well recently, looks to be coming into the kind of form that can win tournaments. Now a best priced 33/1.
Billy Horschel - 50/1, Was going to ditch him this week, but again he ticked so many of the right boxes and 50/1 looked decent in this field. Now a best priced 40/1 but as low as 28/1.
Kevin Chappell - 50/1, I backed him last week at 200/1, so can't quite believe he was a best priced 50/1 this week, stats suggest the course should suit his strengths and put in a decent performance last week, without ever getting into contention. Now a best priced 40/1.
New Dart Strategy
This is based on a strategy of analysis of stats for players who have won or come very close to winning on tour this year. My interpretation is that there are certain stats that winning golfers show up on, so I've shortlisted a group of none winning players that also show up on the 'winners stats'.
I came up with a top 12 of Ryan Palmer, Charley Hoffman, Charles Howell III, Jason Kokrak, Brendan Steele, Russell Knox, Billy Horschel, Ryo Ishikawa, Seung Yul Noh, Kevin Na, Jason Bohn and Brendan Todd.
I can't throw that much muck, I'm already on Horschel, I've rejected some on a technicality and those nearer the front of the betting market go into my 'poor value' box, so....
Ryo Ishikawa - 66/1, if my stats analysis is anywhere near close, this guy is currently playing like a winner in waiting. On first inspection his Strokes Gained Putting stats ranked 149th on tour would put you off, but if you look at his SGP for the last 3 tournaments in Florida he would be ranked 10th on tour for SGP, I believe this weeks greens are similar grass to those in Florida, so that's promising. The only negative is that he's not played here before, but for now that's an unknown rather than a negative.
Russell Knox - 66/1, similar good vibes to Ishikawa, looks to be doing everything right that will bring the opportunity of his first win on tour. He has played this event twice before, made the cut both times but finished well down the field, hopefully the experience of 8 rounds and an improving game will give him the platform to compete this week. Maybe he can make it two Scottish wins after Lairds victory last year.
Kevin Na - 45/1, this is the course where Kevin Na recorded a 16, write many golf correspondents and he hasn't been back here since then. However he returns this year in fine form and some very impressive key stats.
Brendan Todd - 150/1, if Brendan Todd and Splashies stood in front of me right now, I wouldn't know who was who. Brendan Todd not Splashies, ticks a lot of my key stat boxes and ticks them well, so I'll see if I can get to see what Brendan Todd looks like this week.
Jason Bohn - 250/1, nearly kicked him out, due to his lack of length off the tee, but Ben Curtis won here and Jason Bohn has the same type of game that see's him plot his way around a golf course, the 250/1 also saved him from my cut.
ahhhgggh
Finished throwing my muck, just had a look at the tee times and spotted the name of Brian Harman, he was very high on my key stats shorts list, but I didn't think he was playing this week.
He's actually the one key stat player who also has very good course form, two appearances two top 20's in the last 2 years. Priced at 80/1, I've got to back him and back him well as he comes out as in my top 3 picks based on my new found strategy.
If I don't get at least one top 5 this week, I may well give up!
No sheets no research work's killing me at the moment!! Valero Texas Zach Johnson 20/1 £5 free bet ew (he has to do something if I keep backing him lol) Pat Perez 50/1 £1 ew (has to put 4 rounds together soon and with a less than full field out hoping it's this week) Frl's Pat Perez 55/1 (he's top 10 for average first round scoring) Billy horschel 40/1 (was tempted to back him in the outright) Brendon de jonge 80/1 (just a punt) All £1 ew Ps enjoyed our game last night dart shame neither of us could grab top spot but hey ho!! Posted by jdsallstar
Beat me to the first post of this week, I wrote too much!
Yes, good game last night, great to see two from the golfing forum on a final table
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Valero Texas Open) : Precise and straight to the point! Good Luck, with two of your picks Posted by TheDart
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Valero Texas Open) : Nice pick JD. Joint 1st at best. At the very least you have hopefully got top 5 and a nice place dividend. Posted by TheDart
Looking at the leaderboard as it finished there's a good few who could take him off top spot at -4 or make it a 3 or more dead heat but got a feeling I'll be accepting a place win by the end of the day.
Loupe T1 -4 thru 11
Hicks T4 -3 thru 15
Carballo T4 -3 thru 14
Funk T10 -2 thru 15
Villegas T10 -2 thru 14
McLuen T10 -2 thru 13
Good thing is most of the names on the list arent too well known/scary.
Even a few at -1 who could finish really strongly and scupper me. Hopefully the break in play will ruin their momentum.
Johnson and Perez both sitting quite nicely for the outright too so hopefully I have a decent week after a baron month or so.
Sorry for not contributing much to this thread recently. I'm kind of giving up betting altogether, apart from maybe the odd bet on big events.
I do read all of your posts and always like to keep up to date with the world of golf.
But when it comes to having a bet, I don't get the same urge as I used to. Maybe it's because I've been betting for nearly 10 years now (I'm 27) and the excitement has gone.
Maybe it's the realisation that I'm not going to win a million on an acca and be sorted for the rest of my life.
Anyway, later this year I'm going to become a Father for the first time and have decided that maybe my money can be used more wisely.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think I've lost a huge chunk these 9 years I've been betting (unlike dohhhhhhh). In fact I'm def up for golf bets, but overall I reckon I'm down when it comes to all sports.
But I did question, why do i feel the need to bet in the 1st place? When I turned 18 I was convinced I could make tonnes of money by betting. How naive, eh! There are people out there who make very good money betting/trading, simuk (Sim Mahon) for example.
I'll open the question up to you guys.....
How do you see betting? Do you bet for entertainment or purely to make money? Or both?
As they say on Dragons Den, when it comes to betting for me, I'm out. (for now anyway)
Ouch, Brendon Todd, was 3 shots better than anyone else over the weekend, but still finished 6th, 1 shot out of the place for a 1501/1 return.
Still that's the closest I've been for a while and with a few of my other picks performing well, I feel more upbeat about my new 'key stats' strategy and am already looking forward to the Houston Open.
I remember last year, I was away for the Houston Open, but gave everyone the heads up and suggested everyone should consider backing Graham DeLaet.
I 'watched' most of DeLaet's first round on shot tracker, and think he must have had something like 6 x 3 putts, yet he still finished 31st.
I felt really bad about a few people having a bet on DeLaet that week, Flash in particular made me feel guilty, I think he had 36 1/2p ew on DeLaet, so much was his confidence in my advice.
Splashies, I've been thinking about your last post, both your own feelings and your open question.
Going to think about it some more now and will try and post a condensed reply tomorrow.
Hey Splashies, I agree with Flash, if the buzz isn't there at the moment take a break.
I think you'll feel better for it and if and when you decide to have a dabble you should enjoy it more, if you don't then you know it's time to focus on other things.
As for me...
I'm 48 married with 2 children and can relate to how you are feeling at the moment.
I started off by having a bet on a Saturday afternoon and watched the races on the TV with my dad.
I enjoyed it and had my own fair share of luck over the years.
I gradually drifted away from having a regular bet, I don't think I ever decided to quit as such, other interests and life in general became focused elsewhere, probably around about the same age and stage in life as you Splashies.
From having a bet every Saturday, I changed to having a bet on the big events, for me that meant The National, Cheltenham, The Euros and The World Cup, The Masters and The Open and perhaps a day out at the races a couple of times a year.
Though there were times when I reckoned I could come up with a system to beat the bookies, it was always about entertainment for me, I could never back big in one whack and never back more than I could afford as the feeling does not sit well with my guts!
I probably replaced the buzz of betting to some degree by entering quite a few fantasy comps in football and golf and over the years they've been a good laugh, with banter with mates and I've also won some decent prizes.
It's only in recent years that I've started backing weekly on the golf and to be honest this thread has meant I've had a bet some weeks when I wouldn't have done normally and added to a recent bad run I am now contemplating taking a break from the golf after The Masters.
Same for the Poker, I discovered the game and fell in love with it, I love the challenges it brings, the goals you can set yourself and the fact that it keeps the brain active, but I do try to keep poker as part of a balanced life.
In the early days one of the attractions for me was that I could play poker on my laptop in hotel rooms when I was working away from home.
Anyway I say golf betting and poker are entertainment for me, though part of that entertainment has been that I've won some money doing it, not life changing amounts, but from time to time, the family have seen the benefits.
If I stop winning the entertainment value will be less and I'm sure I'll drift away into some other interests, there's plenty to do out there.
I always try to keep the family as priority, if they want to do something, I don't say (or I try not to say)I can't because I want to play poker or I want to watch the golf.
Though there are times when I feel a little uneasy about the amount of time I spend playing poker, March was my busiest month ever on SkyPoker, I will now ease back a bit, though I'd love to win an IPAD!
I also like to save something for the future, for me this is live Poker, I've played in a couple of SPT events, I've played and cashed in tournaments on a trip to Vegas, I'll see what's on offer from Sky this year and will be trying to play a couple of events.
I know live Poker is there waiting for me and I really want to get involved at some stage. Right now my children are teenagers, they are getting to the point where they need my time less and less and my money more and more!
When the balance is right and with my wife's permission my next venture will be live poker.
There's plenty to do out there Splashies, you decide what is best for you (and your growing family), betting, horses, golf, poker, the exchanges will all be waiting for you when you decide it suits you.
Right well I've had a little dabble this week. I've left the Houston Open alone this week because it is such a high standard field it's almost like a Major or WGC and I can never pick winners in those!
The NH Collection Open is new to the schedule, with a new course so no history to go on without digging really deep.
Jorge Campillo - 33/1 - Seems to feature a fair bit but never really challenges, hopefully on home soil in a weak field he can push that bit further this week.
Daniel Im - 125/1 - I like the idea of picking out these 3 figure odd players for win and FRL, Daniel seems to have some OK results, and with nobody having any course form he will stand a better chance as everyone is effectively playing blind. I have him at 100/1 for FRL
Well this time last year I was at my most confident that Graham DeLaet would win his first tournament here.
It wouldn't be the first time I was slightly ahead of my time
Graham DeLaet - 40/1, This week, possibly for the first time, the previously lightly raced Graham DeLaet now comes to the event as an established tour player and possibly for the first time, he can be put in the bracket of possessing good course form and coming to a course that he is comfortable on and will know what to expect.
DeLaet is also sitting high on my key stats table. By my reckoning DeLaet and Kokrak are the only players in the top 25 of the betting looking for their first win on tour, so whilst many may have one eye on preparing for The Masters next week, a victory this week will mean more to Delaet than most.
Bill Haas - 40/1, Looks to have the perfect attributes for this course, is doing all the right things well at the moment and was tied 10th here last year, looks to have a great chance of finishing second behind DeLaet
Jason Kokrak - 55/1, previously famous for being one of the few golfers my wife could name Kokrak has a lovely set of key stats for this weeks course and has been knocking on the door for his first win for some time now. He was 9th here last year. The other player to DeLaet in the top 25 market leaders, who will probably be focused more than most, looking for that elusive victory.
Charles Howell III - 66/1, Not someone I would normally back, I've always seen him as a player that flatters to deceive, but if I'm going to give any credence to my key stats formula I have to back him as he comes out on top this week. Tied 10th last year and previously was tied 19th, so what's comes next in this sequence of numbers.....19......10......?
Chris Stroud - 80/1, A player that comes to my attention via my key stats theory, though there is a doubt over his putting, where as within 10 feet he appears to be one of the best on tour, he has made very few putts outside of 10 feet, so I'm hoping he will be hitting the ball very close to the hole this week. He also has an improving if unspectacular record here.
I do fear an alleged back to form Henrik Stenson this week and admittedly purely on current form, key stats and course form Dustin Johnson comes out head an shoulders above everyone else. I suppose even at 14/1 I shouldn't be greedy and just back him, but for now I'm hoping he will be slightly distracted (let's face it, it doesn't take much) by The Masters next week.
So instead I've decided to back Dustin Johnson at 22/1 for The Masters next week.
Hey Splashies, I agree with Flash, if the buzz isn't there at the moment take a break. I think you'll feel better for it and if and when you decide to have a dabble you should enjoy it more, if you don't then you know it's time to focus on other things. As for me... I'm 48 married with 2 children and can relate to how you are feeling at the moment. I started off by having a bet on a Saturday afternoon and watched the races on the TV with my dad. I enjoyed it and had my own fair share of look over the years. I gradually drifted away from having a regular bet, I don't think I ever decided to quit as such, other interests and life in general became focused elsewhere, probably around about the same age and stage in life as you Splashies. From having a bet every Saturday, I changed to having a bet on the big events, for me that meant The National, Cheltenham, The Euros and The World Cup, The Masters and The Open and perhaps a day out at the races a couple of times a year. Though there were times when I reckoned I could come up with a system to beat the bookies, it was always about entertainment for me, I could never back big in one whack and never back more than I could afford as the feeling does not sit well with my guts! I probably replaced the buzz of betting to some degree by entering quite a few fantasy comps in football and golf and over the years they've been a good laugh, with banter with mates and I've also won some decent prizes. It's only in recent years that I've started backing weekly on the golf and to be honest this thread has meant I've had a bet some weeks when I wouldn't have done normally and added to a recent bad run I am now contemplating taking a break from the golf after The Masters. Same for the Poker, I discovered the game and fell in love with it, I love the challenges it brings, the goals you can set yourself and the fact that it keeps the brain active, but I do try to keep poker as part of a balance life. In the early days one of the attractions for me was that I could play poker on my laptop in hotel rooms when I was working away from home. Anyway I say golf betting and poker are entertainment for me, though part of that entertainment has been that I've won some money doing it, not life changing amounts, but from time to time, the family have seen the benefits. If I stop winning the entertainment value will be less and I'm sure I'll drift away into some other interests, there's plenty to do out there. I always try to keep the family as priority, if they want to do something, I don't say (or I try not to say)I can't because I want to play poker or I want to watch the golf. Though there are times when I feel a little uneasy about the amount of time I spend playing poker, March was my busiest month ever on SkyPoker, I will now ease back a bit, though I'd love to win an IPAD! I also like to save something for the future, for me this is live Poker, I've played in a couple of SPT events, I've played and cashed in tournaments on a trip to Vegas, I'll see what's on offer from Sky this year and will be trying to play a couple of events. I know live Poker is there waiting for me and I really want to get involved at some stage. Right now my children are teenagers, they are getting to the point where they need my time less and less and my money more and more! When the balance is right and with my wife's permission my next venture will be live poker. There's plenty to do out there Splashies, you decide what is best for you (and your growing family), betting, horses, golf, poker, the exchanges will all be waiting for you when you decide it suits you. Posted by TheDart
Comments
Right then, looks like I'm going to have to be the one to drag this thread back on to page 1!
After another blank last week, I applied my usual tactics of a bit of research, a bit of the memory and a bit of the gut instinct,then backed my picks early to beat the bookies.
This strategy has recently been akin to going 1-0 up at half time and finishing by losing 2-1, in other words I look good early on and end up with nothing!
I did the same on Monday, looking at the prices of my picks, its TheDart 1 The Bookies 0.
However, be warned I have since been very busy studying stats and using an observation, Dohhhhhhh once contributed to this thread, I have thrown plenty of muck this week, I just hope some of it sticks.
So Old Dart strategy:
Valero Texas Open
Fredrick Jacobson - 35/1, good course record, been playing well recently, looks to be coming into the kind of form that can win tournaments. Now a best priced 33/1.
Billy Horschel - 50/1, Was going to ditch him this week, but again he ticked so many of the right boxes and 50/1 looked decent in this field. Now a best priced 40/1 but as low as 28/1.
Kevin Chappell - 50/1, I backed him last week at 200/1, so can't quite believe he was a best priced 50/1 this week, stats suggest the course should suit his strengths and put in a decent performance last week, without ever getting into contention. Now a best priced 40/1.
New Dart Strategy
This is based on a strategy of analysis of stats for players who have won or come very close to winning on tour this year. My interpretation is that there are certain stats that winning golfers show up on, so I've shortlisted a group of none winning players that also show up on the 'winners stats'.
I came up with a top 12 of Ryan Palmer, Charley Hoffman, Charles Howell III, Jason Kokrak, Brendan Steele, Russell Knox, Billy Horschel, Ryo Ishikawa, Seung Yul Noh, Kevin Na, Jason Bohn and Brendan Todd.
I can't throw that much muck, I'm already on Horschel, I've rejected some on a technicality and those nearer the front of the betting market go into my 'poor value' box, so....
Ryo Ishikawa - 66/1, if my stats analysis is anywhere near close, this guy is currently playing like a winner in waiting. On first inspection his Strokes Gained Putting stats ranked 149th on tour would put you off, but if you look at his SGP for the last 3 tournaments in Florida he would be ranked 10th on tour for SGP, I believe this weeks greens are similar grass to those in Florida, so that's promising. The only negative is that he's not played here before, but for now that's an unknown rather than a negative.
Russell Knox - 66/1, similar good vibes to Ishikawa, looks to be doing everything right that will bring the opportunity of his first win on tour. He has played this event twice before, made the cut both times but finished well down the field, hopefully the experience of 8 rounds and an improving game will give him the platform to compete this week. Maybe he can make it two Scottish wins after Lairds victory last year.
Kevin Na - 45/1, this is the course where Kevin Na recorded a 16, write many golf correspondents and he hasn't been back here since then. However he returns this year in fine form and some very impressive key stats.
Brendan Todd - 150/1, if Brendan Todd and Splashies stood in front of me right now, I wouldn't know who was who. Brendan Todd not Splashies, ticks a lot of my key stat boxes and ticks them well, so I'll see if I can get to see what Brendan Todd looks like this week.
Jason Bohn - 250/1, nearly kicked him out, due to his lack of length off the tee, but Ben Curtis won here and Jason Bohn has the same type of game that see's him plot his way around a golf course, the 250/1 also saved him from my cut.
ahhhgggh
Finished throwing my muck, just had a look at the tee times and spotted the name of Brian Harman, he was very high on my key stats shorts list, but I didn't think he was playing this week.
He's actually the one key stat player who also has very good course form, two appearances two top 20's in the last 2 years.
Priced at 80/1, I've got to back him and back him well as he comes out as in my top 3 picks based on my new found strategy.
If I don't get at least one top 5 this week, I may well give up!
Yes, good game last night, great to see two from the golfing forum on a final table
Good Luck, with two of your picks
Joint 1st at best.
At the very least you have hopefully got top 5 and a nice place dividend.
Still that's the closest I've been for a while and with a few of my other picks performing well, I feel more upbeat about my new 'key stats' strategy and am already looking forward to the Houston Open.
I remember last year, I was away for the Houston Open, but gave everyone the heads up and suggested everyone should consider backing Graham DeLaet.
I 'watched' most of DeLaet's first round on shot tracker, and think he must have had something like 6 x 3 putts, yet he still finished 31st.
I felt really bad about a few people having a bet on DeLaet that week, Flash in particular made me feel guilty, I think he had 36 1/2p ew on DeLaet, so much was his confidence in my advice.
Splashies, I've been thinking about your last post, both your own feelings and your open question.
Going to think about it some more now and will try and post a condensed reply tomorrow.
I think you'll feel better for it and if and when you decide to have a dabble you should enjoy it more, if you don't then you know it's time to focus on other things.
As for me...
I'm 48 married with 2 children and can relate to how you are feeling at the moment.
I started off by having a bet on a Saturday afternoon and watched the races on the TV with my dad.
I enjoyed it and had my own fair share of luck over the years.
I gradually drifted away from having a regular bet, I don't think I ever decided to quit as such, other interests and life in general became focused elsewhere, probably around about the same age and stage in life as you Splashies.
From having a bet every Saturday, I changed to having a bet on the big events, for me that meant The National, Cheltenham, The Euros and The World Cup, The Masters and The Open and perhaps a day out at the races a couple of times a year.
Though there were times when I reckoned I could come up with a system to beat the bookies, it was always about entertainment for me, I could never back big in one whack and never back more than I could afford as the feeling does not sit well with my guts!
I probably replaced the buzz of betting to some degree by entering quite a few fantasy comps in football and golf and over the years they've been a good laugh, with banter with mates and I've also won some decent prizes.
It's only in recent years that I've started backing weekly on the golf and to be honest this thread has meant I've had a bet some weeks when I wouldn't have done normally and added to a recent bad run I am now contemplating taking a break from the golf after The Masters.
Same for the Poker, I discovered the game and fell in love with it, I love the challenges it brings, the goals you can set yourself and the fact that it keeps the brain active, but I do try to keep poker as part of a balanced life.
In the early days one of the attractions for me was that I could play poker on my laptop in hotel rooms when I was working away from home.
Anyway I say golf betting and poker are entertainment for me, though part of that entertainment has been that I've won some money doing it, not life changing amounts, but from time to time, the family have seen the benefits.
If I stop winning the entertainment value will be less and I'm sure I'll drift away into some other interests, there's plenty to do out there.
I always try to keep the family as priority, if they want to do something, I don't say (or I try not to say)I can't because I want to play poker or I want to watch the golf.
Though there are times when I feel a little uneasy about the amount of time I spend playing poker, March was my busiest month ever on SkyPoker, I will now ease back a bit, though I'd love to win an IPAD!
I also like to save something for the future, for me this is live Poker, I've played in a couple of SPT events, I've played and cashed in tournaments on a trip to Vegas, I'll see what's on offer from Sky this year and will be trying to play a couple of events.
I know live Poker is there waiting for me and I really want to get involved at some stage. Right now my children are teenagers, they are getting to the point where they need my time less and less and my money more and more!
When the balance is right and with my wife's permission my next venture will be live poker.
There's plenty to do out there Splashies, you decide what is best for you (and your growing family), betting, horses, golf, poker, the exchanges will all be waiting for you when you decide it suits you.
Well this time last year I was at my most confident that Graham DeLaet would win his first tournament here.
It wouldn't be the first time I was slightly ahead of my time
Graham DeLaet - 40/1, This week, possibly for the first time, the previously lightly raced Graham DeLaet now comes to the event as an established tour player and possibly for the first time, he can be put in the bracket of possessing good course form and coming to a course that he is comfortable on and will know what to expect.
DeLaet is also sitting high on my key stats table. By my reckoning DeLaet and Kokrak are the only players in the top 25 of the betting looking for their first win on tour, so whilst many may have one eye on preparing for The Masters next week, a victory this week will mean more to Delaet than most.
Bill Haas - 40/1, Looks to have the perfect attributes for this course, is doing all the right things well at the moment and was tied 10th here last year, looks to have a great chance of finishing second behind DeLaet
Jason Kokrak - 55/1, previously famous for being one of the few golfers my wife could name
Charles Howell III - 66/1, Not someone I would normally back, I've always seen him as a player that flatters to deceive, but if I'm going to give any credence to my key stats formula I have to back him as he comes out on top this week. Tied 10th last year and previously was tied 19th, so what's comes next in this sequence of numbers.....19......10......?
Chris Stroud - 80/1, A player that comes to my attention via my key stats theory, though there is a doubt over his putting, where as within 10 feet he appears to be one of the best on tour, he has made very few putts outside of 10 feet, so I'm hoping he will be hitting the ball very close to the hole this week. He also has an improving if unspectacular record here.
I do fear an alleged back to form Henrik Stenson this week and admittedly purely on current form, key stats and course form Dustin Johnson comes out head an shoulders above everyone else. I suppose even at 14/1 I shouldn't be greedy and just back him, but for now I'm hoping he will be slightly distracted (let's face it, it doesn't take much) by The Masters next week.
So instead I've decided to back Dustin Johnson at 22/1 for The Masters next week.