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Effects Of Brexit.

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  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Hmmm.

    You really aren't giving Brexit a fair chance are you Mr Haysie?

    Its only been 35 days or so, give it the almost 5 decades it took for the E U to hogtie us and I'm sure everything will be just fine.

    Keep calm and put the kettle on.

    :):):)

    I thought this one deserved a post of its own, as if it werent for the consequences, it would be so comical.

    Last week the EU told British fisherman that they were banned from selling live shellfish from UK waters, into the EU.

    George Eustace responded by touring a long list of tv studios, and radio stations,

    Mr Eustice said the ban was "quite unexpected and really indefensible", telling BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The truth is, there is no legal barrier to this trade continuing, both on animal health grounds and on public health grounds - there is legal provision within existing EU regulations to allow such trade to continue from the UK.

    "We are just asking the EU to abide by their existing regulations and not to seek to change them."

    Last night, Prime Minister Boris Johnson also refused to rule out a trade war with Brussels if it didn't back down on its ban.

    It appears, though, that Britain was fully aware of the restrictions, having voted for them in 2008.

    Lib Dem North Somerset Councillor for Blagdon and Churchill Patrick Keating wrote on Twitter: "The 'ban' on the import of live molluscs is not specifically targeted at the UK as some sort of 'Brexit revenge'.

    "This particular piece of legislation dates from 2008 - when the UK was a member state, and had votes in Council and Parliament.

    "So, expressions of surprise that there are rules that apply to the import of shellfish from non-EU countries are somewhat disingenuous."

    He added: "The failure here is of the Government to properly explain to this industry the reality of trading with the EU as a third country. These are the conditions that logically apply as a consequence of choosing not to be a member. The UK has put itself on the other side of existing barriers.

    You couldnt make it up.

    The EU bullies have picked on us again?

    I dont think so.
    But it says just as much about us as a nation.

    You would hope that, if your business was selling live shellfish, you would have been aware of the 2008 legislation. And in the 4 or so years between the vote to leave and implementation made plans either to sell your stock in the UK or have a method of purifying the stock to meet EU standards.

    But no, it's all the Government's fault.

    Likewise, the EU seems to have been far more able to export to us than the other way round. Very easy to blame the Government again. But some of the blame is the fact that UK business has not adapted as quickly.
    In respect of the companies, they could be forgiven for ignoring the legislation in 2008, as it only applied to third countries, and we were obviously members at the time.
    However, you would have expected the Government to have warned that this legislation came into play after we had left.
    Not only did they fail to do this, they seemed surprised when it was implemented, accused the EU of Brexit revenge, and threatened a trade war as a result.

    The other circumstances that let the companies off the hook in my view are that firstly, the government left it so late to complete the deal, that nobody had any knowledge of the likely changes until a matter of days before, which meant that everyone was completely in the dark as to the content of their deal, and there was a complete refusal to extend the transition period to allow businesses any time whatsoever to implement any changes prior to the rules coming in to force.

    So yes I would blame the Government.

    They kept banging on in their tv ads, warning businesses to be ready, but the businesses didnt know what to be ready for.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    Essexphil said:

    Why do I think it has gone less badly than people feared? Let's see.

    There was supposed to be a meltdown at the borders. Lasted for about a minute.
    Widespread delay to food supplies. Tesco ran out of Brie for 1 day.
    Widespread medicine shortage. Hasn't happened (unless you are the EU)
    Car manufacturers to leave. Hasn't happened.
    Thousands of farmers going bankrupt. Hasn't happened.
    Prices to go up. Not happening, except supermarkets always hike prices post-Xmas
    Major hit to GDP. Hasn't happened yet.
    Thousands of businesses to close due to Brexit. The headline one, the Bridlington Lobster Company employed 3 (yes 3) people. I'm sure I'm not the only person glad to see a rule that forbids us shipping live creatures for slaughter.
    Fishermen and JD Sports will moan. That's a given.

    Newspapers are desperately trying to create division. But it's all a bit dull.

    The biggest benefit? People were promised (rightly or wrongly) a free vote on Brexit. They were also promised that politicians would implement the result. And they did.

    I do not believe the electorate should vote on such things. But not to keep those promises would have been far worse than any temporary economic price.

    I think you are conflating a number of arguments here.
    There are the referendum campaign arguments regarding Brexit.
    There are also the no deal arguments.
    Then are the everything is going to be ok argument, because we got a good deal.

    I am certain that many people were just expecting customs delays, and queues of trucks at the border for a couple of days.
    In short what the Government described as teething problems.

    The unforeseen problems are much deeper than that.

    The Government claimed that the fishing industry would be boosted, which is clearly not the case.
    Why would JD Sports expect problems?
    There is no point in going back through my list of actual problems that are happening, because I would just be repeating myself.

    You cant suggest that the referendum campaign arguments, that were written off by Brexiteers as project fear, have now come about so we must have been expecting them.

    I for one was not expecting substantial increased costs to consumers for instance.

    We are not very far into it, and it is looking like a bit of a disaster already.

    They are predicting a 4% drop in GDP.

    Things will get worse at the end of the grace period.

    Boris and his lies about the Irish Sea border hasnt helped NI one bit.

    GKN losing 500, is just the tip of the iceberg.

    I dont believe the electorate should have voted on it either.

    There were many ways in which the Government could have implemented the result.

    They could have opted for a much closer alignment, and caused far less damage.

    This was a choice made by the Government, not the electorate.

    I think that history will tell us that they could have made a much better job of it.

    It is fairly simple to select all the worst predictions from the campaign in order to lessen the current chaos.

    Alternatively, didnt David Davis, the then Brexit Secretary, promise that the Brexit deal would deliver the exact same benefits as EU membership.

    Compared to that, what we have now is an unmitigated disaster.

  • tai-gartai-gar Member Posts: 2,578
    HAYSIE said:

    EU poised to lock Britain out of its banking market, Andrew Bailey warns




    Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that the European Union is poised to lock Britain out of its vast banking market, in a move that would push up the cost of finance for millions of consumers on both sides of the Channel.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/eu-poised-to-lock-britain-out-of-its-banking-market-andrew-bailey-warns/ar-BB1dzMtB?ocid=msedgntp

    There is no doubt that this would be the biggest hit to UK prosperity than any of the other things put together. Look at the numbers.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 7,958
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    Why do I think it has gone less badly than people feared? Let's see.

    There was supposed to be a meltdown at the borders. Lasted for about a minute.
    Widespread delay to food supplies. Tesco ran out of Brie for 1 day.
    Widespread medicine shortage. Hasn't happened (unless you are the EU)
    Car manufacturers to leave. Hasn't happened.
    Thousands of farmers going bankrupt. Hasn't happened.
    Prices to go up. Not happening, except supermarkets always hike prices post-Xmas
    Major hit to GDP. Hasn't happened yet.
    Thousands of businesses to close due to Brexit. The headline one, the Bridlington Lobster Company employed 3 (yes 3) people. I'm sure I'm not the only person glad to see a rule that forbids us shipping live creatures for slaughter.
    Fishermen and JD Sports will moan. That's a given.

    Newspapers are desperately trying to create division. But it's all a bit dull.

    The biggest benefit? People were promised (rightly or wrongly) a free vote on Brexit. They were also promised that politicians would implement the result. And they did.

    I do not believe the electorate should vote on such things. But not to keep those promises would have been far worse than any temporary economic price.

    I think you are conflating a number of arguments here.
    There are the referendum campaign arguments regarding Brexit.
    There are also the no deal arguments.
    Then are the everything is going to be ok argument, because we got a good deal.

    I am certain that many people were just expecting customs delays, and queues of trucks at the border for a couple of days.
    In short what the Government described as teething problems.

    The unforeseen problems are much deeper than that.

    The Government claimed that the fishing industry would be boosted, which is clearly not the case.
    Why would JD Sports expect problems?
    There is no point in going back through my list of actual problems that are happening, because I would just be repeating myself.

    You cant suggest that the referendum campaign arguments, that were written off by Brexiteers as project fear, have now come about so we must have been expecting them.

    I for one was not expecting substantial increased costs to consumers for instance.

    We are not very far into it, and it is looking like a bit of a disaster already.

    They are predicting a 4% drop in GDP.

    Things will get worse at the end of the grace period.

    Boris and his lies about the Irish Sea border hasnt helped NI one bit.

    GKN losing 500, is just the tip of the iceberg.

    I dont believe the electorate should have voted on it either.

    There were many ways in which the Government could have implemented the result.

    They could have opted for a much closer alignment, and caused far less damage.

    This was a choice made by the Government, not the electorate.

    I think that history will tell us that they could have made a much better job of it.

    It is fairly simple to select all the worst predictions from the campaign in order to lessen the current chaos.

    Alternatively, didnt David Davis, the then Brexit Secretary, promise that the Brexit deal would deliver the exact same benefits as EU membership.

    Compared to that, what we have now is an unmitigated disaster.

    Conflating arguments? Charming. There was me thinking I was stating my opinion.

    I'm saying why I believe that many Remainers arguments were about as far removed as the Government in reality. Private Frazer to the Governments Corporal Jones.

    You do remember producing a Brexit thread? You know, the 1 that ran to 7,100 posts? I think the only harbinger of doom missing was the zombie apocalypse.

    The biggest stories at the moment appear to be 3 people have lost their jobs due to their employer ignoring reality, and a British-owned Belgian supermarket has run out of Custard Creams.

    Are there going to be problems? Of course there are. But anyone who thinks it will be the end of the world in Project Fear is just as far removed from reality as people who think it will have no impact.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    Michel Barnier blames UK for not ‘correctly explaining’ Brexit consequences, as Gove holds crisis talks



    Today's daily politics briefing
    The EU has accused the UK of not correctly explaining the consequences of Brexit to businesses as the two sides clashed over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

    Michel Barnier hit out at the government as he insisted the withdrawal terms it sought – not the checks introduced on Irish Sea trade – are to blame for empty shelves in supermarkets.

    The criticism came ahead of crisis talks between the two sides in London, which drew to a close with both sides reiterating their commitment to “the proper implementation” of the Protocol.

    Michael Gove had entered the meeting expected to request a two-year delay to further checks on food supplies – a suggestion the EU side had been expected to turn down.

    A joint statement said Mr Gove and the European Commission’s vice president Maros Sefcovic had had a “frank but constructive discussion” on Thursday evening, in which they agreed to “spare no effort” in implementing solutions.

    The two politicians agreed to convene the joint committee no later than 24 February to provide “the necessary political steer” and approval to this work “in the spirit of collaboration, responsibility and pragmatism”.

    Irish foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney described the meeting as a “good day’s work”, tweeting: “Focus now is on EU/UK cooperation to implement what’s been agreed in Protocol and to work on solutions to outstanding issues linked to implementation.”

    But the cordial statement was preceded by stern words from across the channel. Speaking ahead of the meeting, Mr Barnier said: “The difficulties on the island of Ireland are caused by Brexit, not by the Protocol,” adding that “the Protocol is the solution”.

    And, on the blizzard of new red tape for all post-Brexit trade, the chief Brexit negotiator added: “Many of these consequences have not been correctly explained, they have been generally underestimated.”

    “Brexit means Brexit,” he told a European Business Summit event, stealing the slogan coined by Theresa May, when she sought hard exit terms.

    While there could be “technical solutions” for some of the problems becoming apparent, the Brexit negotiations were over and the rules must be respected, he added.

    The comments came as the Irish prime minister, Micheál Martin, called for both sides to “dial down the rhetoric”, warning Ireland risked being “collateral damage” in the row.

    Many EU leaders are angry that the UK appears to be exploiting the controversy over its brief triggering of border controls in Ireland – over coronavirus vaccine exports – to try to overturn the Protocol.

    Keir Starmer also called for cool heads from both sides in approaching issues around Northern Ireland, saying: “There is increasing tension that needs to be de-escalated.”

    A day before their meeting, Mr Sefcovic was accused of inflaming tensions between the UK and EU in a response to Mr Gove's claim, made on Monday, that the Protocol was "not working" and needed changes.

    In a letter, Mr Sefcovic questioned why border control posts at ports in Northern Ireland were “not yet fully operational” six weeks after Brexit was completed.

    There were “very few identity checks” on goods, while “non-compliant consignments” were being accepted even if destined for the Irish Republic, he wrote.

    Goods were entering Northern Ireland “without being declared or without valid certificates”, and the UK had “not fulfilled its obligation” to allow the EU real-time access to customs IT systems.

    On the UK's call for a two-year extension to "grace periods", Mr Sefcovic wrote that changes “cannot be agreed beyond what the Protocol foresees already”
    .

    Boris Johnson’s spokesperson called the response “disappointing”, explicitly linking its call for a rethink to the row over the EU’s aborted invocation of Article 16, which allows part of the Protocol to be overridden – and is meant to be used only in emergencies. The bloc imposed the temporary change in a row over coronavirus vaccines.

    “The Commission has failed to acknowledge the shock and anger felt across the community in Northern Ireland from its decision to trigger Article 16 and the need to take urgent steps to restore confidence as a result,” he said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/michel-barnier-blames-uk-for-not-correctly-explaining-brexit-consequences-as-gove-holds-crisis-talks/ar-BB1dBgoE?ocid=msedgntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    Why do I think it has gone less badly than people feared? Let's see.

    There was supposed to be a meltdown at the borders. Lasted for about a minute.
    Widespread delay to food supplies. Tesco ran out of Brie for 1 day.
    Widespread medicine shortage. Hasn't happened (unless you are the EU)
    Car manufacturers to leave. Hasn't happened.
    Thousands of farmers going bankrupt. Hasn't happened.
    Prices to go up. Not happening, except supermarkets always hike prices post-Xmas
    Major hit to GDP. Hasn't happened yet.
    Thousands of businesses to close due to Brexit. The headline one, the Bridlington Lobster Company employed 3 (yes 3) people. I'm sure I'm not the only person glad to see a rule that forbids us shipping live creatures for slaughter.
    Fishermen and JD Sports will moan. That's a given.

    Newspapers are desperately trying to create division. But it's all a bit dull.

    The biggest benefit? People were promised (rightly or wrongly) a free vote on Brexit. They were also promised that politicians would implement the result. And they did.

    I do not believe the electorate should vote on such things. But not to keep those promises would have been far worse than any temporary economic price.

    I think you are conflating a number of arguments here.
    There are the referendum campaign arguments regarding Brexit.
    There are also the no deal arguments.
    Then are the everything is going to be ok argument, because we got a good deal.

    I am certain that many people were just expecting customs delays, and queues of trucks at the border for a couple of days.
    In short what the Government described as teething problems.

    The unforeseen problems are much deeper than that.

    The Government claimed that the fishing industry would be boosted, which is clearly not the case.
    Why would JD Sports expect problems?
    There is no point in going back through my list of actual problems that are happening, because I would just be repeating myself.

    You cant suggest that the referendum campaign arguments, that were written off by Brexiteers as project fear, have now come about so we must have been expecting them.

    I for one was not expecting substantial increased costs to consumers for instance.

    We are not very far into it, and it is looking like a bit of a disaster already.

    They are predicting a 4% drop in GDP.

    Things will get worse at the end of the grace period.

    Boris and his lies about the Irish Sea border hasnt helped NI one bit.

    GKN losing 500, is just the tip of the iceberg.

    I dont believe the electorate should have voted on it either.

    There were many ways in which the Government could have implemented the result.

    They could have opted for a much closer alignment, and caused far less damage.

    This was a choice made by the Government, not the electorate.

    I think that history will tell us that they could have made a much better job of it.

    It is fairly simple to select all the worst predictions from the campaign in order to lessen the current chaos.

    Alternatively, didnt David Davis, the then Brexit Secretary, promise that the Brexit deal would deliver the exact same benefits as EU membership.

    Compared to that, what we have now is an unmitigated disaster.

    Conflating arguments? Charming. There was me thinking I was stating my opinion.

    You switched from your opinion that it had gone better than you expected to, why you thought it had gone less badly than people feared.
    So you went from stating your own opinion, to stating other peoples as well.
    I dont think that anything that you claim was a prediction was expected to happen within the first month of us leaving.
    Some may still occur in time.
    The UK Government has spent billions on Brexit preparations, so I wasnt really expecting a meltdown anywhere.
    Although the borders have been assisted by the very small percentage of exports crossing the border to the EU.


    I'm saying why I believe that many Remainers arguments were about as far removed as the Government in reality. Private Frazer to the Governments Corporal Jones.

    Shouldnt we be able to trust a PM who claimed that we had a very good deal, and rule out predictions of doom and gloom.
    Your Dads Army reference was far more suitable for Charles Walker calling Matt Hancock a stupid boy yesterday.


    You do remember producing a Brexit thread? You know, the 1 that ran to 7,100 posts? I think the only harbinger of doom missing was the zombie apocalypse.

    Brexit was being negotiated during the time that thread was running.
    Those that were anxious about the outcome may feel justified by the events so far.
    This thread is different as it is about stuff that is actually happening.


    The biggest stories at the moment appear to be 3 people have lost their jobs due to their employer ignoring reality, and a British-owned Belgian supermarket has run out of Custard Creams.


    Why say that when you know it is not true.



    Are there going to be problems? Of course there are. But anyone who thinks it will be the end of the world in Project Fear is just as far removed from reality as people who think it will have no impact.


    Which problems?

    I think that if we were expecting the end of the world on the 1st January then everyone would share your view that it had gone better than expected.
    Maintaining that we got what the electorate voted is not quite the full story.
    A very small majority voted in favour of leaving, but had no say in our future relationship with the EU.
    The Government chose the deal that they wanted.

    Got to go.


  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 7,958
    edited February 2021
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    Why do I think it has gone less badly than people feared? Let's see.

    There was supposed to be a meltdown at the borders. Lasted for about a minute.
    Widespread delay to food supplies. Tesco ran out of Brie for 1 day.
    Widespread medicine shortage. Hasn't happened (unless you are the EU)
    Car manufacturers to leave. Hasn't happened.
    Thousands of farmers going bankrupt. Hasn't happened.
    Prices to go up. Not happening, except supermarkets always hike prices post-Xmas
    Major hit to GDP. Hasn't happened yet.
    Thousands of businesses to close due to Brexit. The headline one, the Bridlington Lobster Company employed 3 (yes 3) people. I'm sure I'm not the only person glad to see a rule that forbids us shipping live creatures for slaughter.
    Fishermen and JD Sports will moan. That's a given.

    Newspapers are desperately trying to create division. But it's all a bit dull.

    The biggest benefit? People were promised (rightly or wrongly) a free vote on Brexit. They were also promised that politicians would implement the result. And they did.

    I do not believe the electorate should vote on such things. But not to keep those promises would have been far worse than any temporary economic price.

    I think you are conflating a number of arguments here.
    There are the referendum campaign arguments regarding Brexit.
    There are also the no deal arguments.
    Then are the everything is going to be ok argument, because we got a good deal.

    I am certain that many people were just expecting customs delays, and queues of trucks at the border for a couple of days.
    In short what the Government described as teething problems.

    The unforeseen problems are much deeper than that.

    The Government claimed that the fishing industry would be boosted, which is clearly not the case.
    Why would JD Sports expect problems?
    There is no point in going back through my list of actual problems that are happening, because I would just be repeating myself.

    You cant suggest that the referendum campaign arguments, that were written off by Brexiteers as project fear, have now come about so we must have been expecting them.

    I for one was not expecting substantial increased costs to consumers for instance.

    We are not very far into it, and it is looking like a bit of a disaster already.

    They are predicting a 4% drop in GDP.

    Things will get worse at the end of the grace period.

    Boris and his lies about the Irish Sea border hasnt helped NI one bit.

    GKN losing 500, is just the tip of the iceberg.

    I dont believe the electorate should have voted on it either.

    There were many ways in which the Government could have implemented the result.

    They could have opted for a much closer alignment, and caused far less damage.

    This was a choice made by the Government, not the electorate.

    I think that history will tell us that they could have made a much better job of it.

    It is fairly simple to select all the worst predictions from the campaign in order to lessen the current chaos.

    Alternatively, didnt David Davis, the then Brexit Secretary, promise that the Brexit deal would deliver the exact same benefits as EU membership.

    Compared to that, what we have now is an unmitigated disaster.

    Conflating arguments? Charming. There was me thinking I was stating my opinion.

    You switched from your opinion that it had gone better than you expected to, why you thought it had gone less badly than people feared.
    So you went from stating your own opinion, to stating other peoples as well.
    I dont think that anything that you claim was a prediction was expected to happen within the first month of us leaving.
    Some may still occur in time.
    The UK Government has spent billions on Brexit preparations, so I wasnt really expecting a meltdown anywhere.
    Although the borders have been assisted by the very small percentage of exports crossing the border to the EU.


    I'm saying why I believe that many Remainers arguments were about as far removed as the Government in reality. Private Frazer to the Governments Corporal Jones.

    Shouldnt we be able to trust a PM who claimed that we had a very good deal, and rule out predictions of doom and gloom.
    Your Dads Army reference was far more suitable for Charles Walker calling Matt Hancock a stupid boy yesterday.


    You do remember producing a Brexit thread? You know, the 1 that ran to 7,100 posts? I think the only harbinger of doom missing was the zombie apocalypse.

    Brexit was being negotiated during the time that thread was running.
    Those that were anxious about the outcome may feel justified by the events so far.
    This thread is different as it is about stuff that is actually happening.


    The biggest stories at the moment appear to be 3 people have lost their jobs due to their employer ignoring reality, and a British-owned Belgian supermarket has run out of Custard Creams.


    Why say that when you know it is not true.



    Are there going to be problems? Of course there are. But anyone who thinks it will be the end of the world in Project Fear is just as far removed from reality as people who think it will have no impact.


    Which problems?

    I think that if we were expecting the end of the world on the 1st January then everyone would share your view that it had gone better than expected.
    Maintaining that we got what the electorate voted is not quite the full story.
    A very small majority voted in favour of leaving, but had no say in our future relationship with the EU.
    The Government chose the deal that they wanted.

    Got to go.


    There you go again.

    You have clear opinions on Brexit. Some I share, some I do not. That's normal.

    For the 2nd time you have claimed you know what I am thinking better than I do. That is as optimistic as BoJo on Brexit. Listen to yourelf, man.

    Simple example. In shock news I am not the only person in the World that believes, so far, Brexit has gone better than I feared. That is why it is not conflation to state that it has gone better than I, and indeed others, feared. That is stating an opinion. Might be right. Might be wrong. But it is definitely my opinion. And to say otherwise is a bit silly.

    Will there be more problems down the line? Almost certainly. Which do you think may provide a better strategy?

    1. Trying to rewrite history, and finger-pointing; or
    2. Accepting the reality of where we are

    Got to Leave :)
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    Why do I think it has gone less badly than people feared? Let's see.

    There was supposed to be a meltdown at the borders. Lasted for about a minute.
    Widespread delay to food supplies. Tesco ran out of Brie for 1 day.
    Widespread medicine shortage. Hasn't happened (unless you are the EU)
    Car manufacturers to leave. Hasn't happened.
    Thousands of farmers going bankrupt. Hasn't happened.
    Prices to go up. Not happening, except supermarkets always hike prices post-Xmas
    Major hit to GDP. Hasn't happened yet.
    Thousands of businesses to close due to Brexit. The headline one, the Bridlington Lobster Company employed 3 (yes 3) people. I'm sure I'm not the only person glad to see a rule that forbids us shipping live creatures for slaughter.
    Fishermen and JD Sports will moan. That's a given.

    Newspapers are desperately trying to create division. But it's all a bit dull.

    The biggest benefit? People were promised (rightly or wrongly) a free vote on Brexit. They were also promised that politicians would implement the result. And they did.

    I do not believe the electorate should vote on such things. But not to keep those promises would have been far worse than any temporary economic price.

    I think you are conflating a number of arguments here.
    There are the referendum campaign arguments regarding Brexit.
    There are also the no deal arguments.
    Then are the everything is going to be ok argument, because we got a good deal.

    I am certain that many people were just expecting customs delays, and queues of trucks at the border for a couple of days.
    In short what the Government described as teething problems.

    The unforeseen problems are much deeper than that.

    The Government claimed that the fishing industry would be boosted, which is clearly not the case.
    Why would JD Sports expect problems?
    There is no point in going back through my list of actual problems that are happening, because I would just be repeating myself.

    You cant suggest that the referendum campaign arguments, that were written off by Brexiteers as project fear, have now come about so we must have been expecting them.

    I for one was not expecting substantial increased costs to consumers for instance.

    We are not very far into it, and it is looking like a bit of a disaster already.

    They are predicting a 4% drop in GDP.

    Things will get worse at the end of the grace period.

    Boris and his lies about the Irish Sea border hasnt helped NI one bit.

    GKN losing 500, is just the tip of the iceberg.

    I dont believe the electorate should have voted on it either.

    There were many ways in which the Government could have implemented the result.

    They could have opted for a much closer alignment, and caused far less damage.

    This was a choice made by the Government, not the electorate.

    I think that history will tell us that they could have made a much better job of it.

    It is fairly simple to select all the worst predictions from the campaign in order to lessen the current chaos.

    Alternatively, didnt David Davis, the then Brexit Secretary, promise that the Brexit deal would deliver the exact same benefits as EU membership.

    Compared to that, what we have now is an unmitigated disaster.

    Conflating arguments? Charming. There was me thinking I was stating my opinion.

    You switched from your opinion that it had gone better than you expected to, why you thought it had gone less badly than people feared.
    So you went from stating your own opinion, to stating other peoples as well.
    I dont think that anything that you claim was a prediction was expected to happen within the first month of us leaving.
    Some may still occur in time.
    The UK Government has spent billions on Brexit preparations, so I wasnt really expecting a meltdown anywhere.
    Although the borders have been assisted by the very small percentage of exports crossing the border to the EU.


    I'm saying why I believe that many Remainers arguments were about as far removed as the Government in reality. Private Frazer to the Governments Corporal Jones.

    Shouldnt we be able to trust a PM who claimed that we had a very good deal, and rule out predictions of doom and gloom.
    Your Dads Army reference was far more suitable for Charles Walker calling Matt Hancock a stupid boy yesterday.


    You do remember producing a Brexit thread? You know, the 1 that ran to 7,100 posts? I think the only harbinger of doom missing was the zombie apocalypse.

    Brexit was being negotiated during the time that thread was running.
    Those that were anxious about the outcome may feel justified by the events so far.
    This thread is different as it is about stuff that is actually happening.


    The biggest stories at the moment appear to be 3 people have lost their jobs due to their employer ignoring reality, and a British-owned Belgian supermarket has run out of Custard Creams.


    Why say that when you know it is not true.



    Are there going to be problems? Of course there are. But anyone who thinks it will be the end of the world in Project Fear is just as far removed from reality as people who think it will have no impact.


    Which problems?

    I think that if we were expecting the end of the world on the 1st January then everyone would share your view that it had gone better than expected.
    Maintaining that we got what the electorate voted is not quite the full story.
    A very small majority voted in favour of leaving, but had no say in our future relationship with the EU.
    The Government chose the deal that they wanted.

    Got to go.


    There you go again.

    You have clear opinions on Brexit. Some I share, some I do not. That's normal.

    Ok.

    For the 2nd time you have claimed you know what I am thinking better than I do. That is as optimistic as BoJo on Brexit. Listen to yourelf, man.

    I havent claimed this once.
    I am listening.


    Simple example. In shock news I am not the only person in the World that believes, so far, Brexit has gone better than I feared. That is why it is not conflation to state that it has gone better than I, and indeed others, feared. That is stating an opinion. Might be right. Might be wrong. But it is definitely my opinion. And to say otherwise is a bit silly.

    I was merely trying to point out that there have been many examples of fears put forward at the different stages of Brexit.
    We have had the leaving the EU fears put forward during the referendum campaign.
    These were mainly put forward by the remainer side, and written off by Brexiteers under the project fear banner.
    Then the fears that related to Theresa Mays deal.
    The most recent fears related to a no deal scenario, when it looked like Boris wasnt going to get a deal.
    Many of the initial fears became irrelevant after a deal was struck.
    I attempted to point out that I felt you were using some of the fears that people had in the early stages to justify your opinion that it had gone better than you thought it would.
    In your second post you seemed to modify what you were putting forward, to include other peoples views, rather than just yours.
    To suggest that I am of the opinion that I know what you are thinking better than you, is silly.
    I am not disputing that you are entitled to your opinion.
    What I am clearly saying is that if we take everyones worst fears, and the worst possible outcome, then everyone would agree that it had gone better than expected.
    On the other hand if everyone took the view that Boris and the Government actually knew what they were doing, they might have a completely different view.
    As an example you quoted in your list meltdown at the border, making the point that it didnt happen
    I for one was only thinking about the borders melting down in the case of a no deal.
    I hadnt considered that there would be a borders meltdown if Boris stuck to his word and got us a frictionless, tariff free, quota free trade deal which he promised, and told us he had got


    Will there be more problems down the line? Almost certainly. Which do you think may provide a better strategy?

    1. Trying to rewrite history, and finger-pointing; or
    2. Accepting the reality of where we are

    Got to Leave :)

    I accept where we are, and none of us are in a position to change that.
    Although I would dispute the need to have ended up here.
    I think you badly underestimated the position so far.
    To quote that one company closed with a loss of three jobs reflects the worst case scenario is incorrect.
    Boris promised the finishing industry improved terms.
    Many boats are tied up, and not going out, and the EU have put an indefinite ban on our exports of shellfish.
    Those involved in the industry probably think its a disaster, and certainly not quote that the net result is that 3 people have lost their jobs.

    You also claimed that businesses were at fault for not being ready.
    How could they absorb a 1256 page trade deal, and get their ducks in order, within a matter of a couple of days before we left.

    Boris could have extended the transition on a number of occasions, but said he would rather die in a ditch.
    Had he done so, it would have given businesses the opportunity to prepare properly.
    How stupid does it look, when he now has to go back and beg them to extend the grace period for 2 years.
    This extension would not solve the current difficulties, but it would put off any exacerbation of the current problems from April on.

    The amount of friction was dictated by the closeness of our relationship with the EU moving forward.
    Boris was in control of this.
    The current situation is one of his own making.

    There is tension in NI.
    Theresa May said that no British PM would ever agree to a border in the Irish Sea.
    Boris repeated this in the DUP Party Conference.
    Then he did it.
    The tension is his fault, and who knows where it may lead.
    Couldnt this have been predicted?

    The RHA guy was on yesterday, they estimate that we need 50,000 Customs Agents to cope, they estimate that there are currently around 10,000 in the UK


  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    tai-gar said:

    HAYSIE said:

    EU poised to lock Britain out of its banking market, Andrew Bailey warns




    Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that the European Union is poised to lock Britain out of its vast banking market, in a move that would push up the cost of finance for millions of consumers on both sides of the Channel.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/eu-poised-to-lock-britain-out-of-its-banking-market-andrew-bailey-warns/ar-BB1dzMtB?ocid=msedgntp

    There is no doubt that this would be the biggest hit to UK prosperity than any of the other things put together. Look at the numbers.
    Joe Biden taking 'trillions of dollars' from London as EU-UK spat sparks Wall Street surge



    Shares worth €9.2billion (£8.07bn) a day were traded on Euronext Amsterdam and the Dutch arms of CBOE Europe and Turquoise in January, a more than fourfold increase from December. Meanwhile, volumes in London fell sharply to €8.6billion (£7.5bn), causing the City of London to lose its historic position as the main centre for the European market, according to data from CBOE Europe. The shift is a direct consequence of the EU banning its financial institutions trading in London. Brussels refuses to recognise most UK regulatory systems as equivalent to its own post-Brexit.



    Without the so-called equivalence to ease cross-border dealing, there was an immediate shift of €6.5billion (£5.7bn) of deals to the EU when the Brexit transition period came to an end on January 1.


    Paris and Dublin also gained in trade volume last month but not as much as Amsterdam.

    A recent report, though, claims there is only one clear winner from the latest scrap over London's post-Brexit finance business and it is not European.

    Elisa Martinuzzi and Marcus Ashworth from Bloomberg argued US President Joe Biden might be the third dog running off with the prize, as New York is taking trillions of dollars from London, making it an impossible task for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to recover.

    They explained: "New trading limits between the UK and the continent have prompted a large chunk of this lucrative work to move across the Atlantic.

    "Clawing back the trillions of dollars of activity that's leaving London, quite literally overnight, could be a long slog.

    "With counterparties from the EU now restricted from trading in Britain, and vice versa, dealers and investors predictably resorted to trading more interest-rate swaps in the US, a market that both the EU and the UK still recognise.

    "But the degree to which the shift happened, without any obvious market glitches, has caught some participants by surprise."


    According to data compiled by IHS Markit, in the first two weeks of January, US derivative platforms - known as Swap Execution Facilities - saw their total market share jump to 83 percent from 75 percent for US dollar interest-rate swaps.

    The shift in European trades was even more dramatic, the two finance experts noted.

    In euro swaps, the SEFs gained 18 percentage points of market share to reach 39 percent; and even in sterling swaps, the US share jumped to 45 percent from 27 percent.

    They added: "In theory, none of these changes in habit is set in stone.

    "London and Brussels are still hammering out an agreement on financial regulations that could yet see the EU recognise UK bankers and financiers as 'equivalent' to the bloc's, potentially allowing business to return to pre-Brexit behaviour just as quickly as it changed.

    "But it's relatively safe to say that whatever happens, Wall Street will be popping open the champagne.

    "The shift in dollar business from London to the US will be hard to reverse, as will the euro trading, which the EU has repeatedly claimed it wants to bring back within its jurisdiction and, quite rightly, oversee. While much of this shift is largely about the plumbing of derivatives and share trading, involving relatively few jobs, business begets business in the financial markets."

    They concluded: "The EU's top financial services official said on Friday that this was reality hitting London.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/joe-biden-taking-trillions-of-dollars-from-london-as-eu-uk-spat-sparks-wall-street-surge/ar-BB1dDo7i?ocid=msedgntp
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 7,958
    Right now, the papers are focussing on things that are not important.

    Financial services may well prove to be rather more important.

    It is not directly relating to Brexit, but it is true to say that the current leadership are at a crossroads.

    The Government want the best of both worlds. To be free to trade in Europe, while not agreeing to equivalence. It's nonsense to bleat about we are not held to the same rules as Canada. We are by far the biggest rival to the EU in Financial Services.

    The UK seems to want to be both free to compete in the EU AND free to remove various things which would enable us to undercut the EU. Both in relation to subsidies/removal of worker rights to creating a relatively regulation-free Singapore-style model.

    Project Fear stated that the City would already have lost 50,000 jobs to the EU. Hasn't happened-yet. Only 7,000 jobs so far-which is small in comparison to the number of jobs.

    It may prove possible to diverge from EU rules on other matters. But not Financial Services. We need to choose 1 path, and 1 path only. Equivalence or what would effectively be a trade war.

    I have no idea which path would be better. But trying to do both is likely to be the worst option.

    Brexit gives us choices. But some of those are hard choices.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    From Farage’s flotilla to rotting exports – it’s the story of Brexit, in fish




    Mmm. Almost five years on, and George having ascended to the cabinet, is that the only question the fishing industry is asking? Negative, I’m afraid. You know things are bad because Michael Gove, who famously only went and did the Brexit to avenge his father’s fishing business, has pitched up with one of his famous analogies. “We all know that when an aeroplane takes off, that’s the point when you sometimes get that increased level of turbulence,” he breezed of a range of Brexit-engendered horror shows this week. “But then eventually you reach a cruising altitude and the crew tell you to take your seatbelts off, and enjoy a gin and tonic and some peanuts. We’re not at the gin and tonic and peanuts stage yet, but I’m confident we will be.” The nice thing about cruising altitude is that you can’t see the little people having a nightmare 30,000 feet below.

    And so it is that a British prime minister has since famously agreed to it, though not famously enough that his senior ministers even care to acknowledge it in public. As Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis has repeatedly put it recently: “There is no ‘Irish Sea border’.” A statement to which the only reasonable rejoinder is: there is no “Brandon Lewis”. There is no Brandon Lewis, there is no Irish Sea border, there is no barrier to trade, there is no one who cares more about the fishing industry than Michael Gove. These are certainly boom times for denial. Indeed, with government ministers shipping it out hourly, it is arguably our most thriving export.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/from-farage-s-flotilla-to-rotting-exports-it-s-the-story-of-brexit-in-fish/ar-BB1dCZXn?ocid=msedgntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    Brexit news latest: Number 10 snubs interior design giants’ protests over trade barriers

    The bosses of some of the most prestigious names in British interior design plan to shift operations to Europe after Downing Street snubbed their concerns about “severe” Brexit trade barriers.

    The chief executives of luxury fabrics, wall coverings and upholstery brands Designers Guild, Osborne & Little, Colefax and Fowler, Romo, Edmund Bell, and Sanderson have twice written to the Prime Minister about new duties and red tape. So far, they have not had a reply to either letter from No 10 or any other Whitehall department.

    The six companies have all won Queen’s Awards for Export or International Trade and their products adorn the walls of Buckingham Palace and the White House. They are being hit by an eight per cent duty when they ship fabrics originally manufactured in the EU — mainly Italy and Belgium — back to customers on the Continent.

    Simon Jeffreys, chief executive of Designers Guild, said that the Brexit effect will cost the £50 million turnover company £1.5 million this year, wiping out much of its profit margin. He said: “What gets us is that we were expecting duties on goods coming from India or China under WTO rules but we were told there would be zero duties between the EU and the UK, but that is not the case.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/brexit-news-latest-number-10-snubs-interior-design-giants-protests-over-trade-barriers/ar-BB1dD8I0?ocid=msedgntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    Essexphil said:

    Right now, the papers are focussing on things that are not important.

    Financial services may well prove to be rather more important.

    It is not directly relating to Brexit, but it is true to say that the current leadership are at a crossroads.

    The Government want the best of both worlds. To be free to trade in Europe, while not agreeing to equivalence. It's nonsense to bleat about we are not held to the same rules as Canada. We are by far the biggest rival to the EU in Financial Services.

    The UK seems to want to be both free to compete in the EU AND free to remove various things which would enable us to undercut the EU. Both in relation to subsidies/removal of worker rights to creating a relatively regulation-free Singapore-style model.

    Project Fear stated that the City would already have lost 50,000 jobs to the EU. Hasn't happened-yet. Only 7,000 jobs so far-which is small in comparison to the number of jobs.

    It may prove possible to diverge from EU rules on other matters. But not Financial Services. We need to choose 1 path, and 1 path only. Equivalence or what would effectively be a trade war.

    I have no idea which path would be better. But trying to do both is likely to be the worst option.

    Brexit gives us choices. But some of those are hard choices.

    The Government have been consistent in their aim to get the best of both worlds, in addition to having their cake and eating it.
    I would agree that the press are covering many less important issues, but there are so many of them.
    George Osborne has been roundly criticised for publishing many predictions that were purposely very wide of the mark, in order to back up the remain position.
    Some were so over the top, they were probably counterproductive.
    At least we are now dealing with facts.

    There were bound to be teething problems, but many of the difficulties that have arisen so far that the Government has described as such, clearly arent.
    The Irish border was a predictable problem.
    It is difficult to see how it will be resolved.
    We may well be back to square one in 2024, when they are able to vote against the protocol in Stormont.
    This is dependant on a number of issues, like in order to vote they would have to be sitting.
    If not the Government have to come up with an unspecified alternative, if they arent sitting.
    Its already clear that the DUP will vote against, unless there are radical changes.
    The EU dont seem keen to make any changes.
    They seem happy to proceed as per the agreement.
    All sides seem to be in agreement that a land border is out of the question.
    The DUP are against any border.

    What is the alternative solution?

    Brexit was all about choices.
    I think Theresa May probably made better choices than Boris, and would have allowed for a much friendlier relationship with the EU moving forward.
    Had Boris made better choices, there would have been less disruption.
    It will be interesting to watch as it all unfolds.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    edited February 2021
    Brexit news – live: ‘More trade disruptions to come,’ economists warn as export issues harm Scottish whisky




    Current analysis by the EU predicts Britain’s divorce from the bloc will cause a 2.25 per cent hit to the UK economy by 2022 – £40bn in lost growth over two years.

    It comes as Westminster has been urged to support Scotland’s struggling whisky industry after “complicated bureaucracy post-Brexit” caused overseas exports to drop by 23 per cent.

    In an open letter to rural affairs secretary George Eustice, Scottish rural economy minister Fergus Ewing said the once “booming” sector was failing due to complications caused by coronavirus, Brexit and tariffs imposed by the US following a dispute with the EU.

    “I have written to the UK government urging them to address the problems and will do my utmost to help one of Scotland’s greatest food and drink success stories get through this challenging time,” Mr Ewing said in a statement.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/brexit-news-live-more-trade-disruptions-to-come-economists-warn-as-export-issues-harm-scottish-whisky/ar-BB1dEdNO?ocid=msedgntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    edited February 2021
    Irish government wants veto over EU legislation concerning Northern Irish Protocol





    The Irish government wants an effective veto over all future EU legislation concerning the Brexit treaty’s Northern Irish Protocol.

    Dublin demanded the “early warning system” after the European Commission triggered Article 16 of the agreement during its row with AstraZeneca. Brussels reversed the measure, which would have imposed a hard border on the island of Ireland, after furious interventions from Britain and Ireland.

    “It’s OK to make a mistake once; you learn from those mistakes. And the mistake from the near triggering of Article 16 was not to consult the Government of the most exposed member state, Ireland, first,” said Neale Richmond, the Irish MP for Dublin Rathdown.

    “No member state appreciates the sensitivity of the protocol more than Ireland; it is vital to have that mechanism in place to ensure there is the political awareness from a member state taken into account,” the Fine Gael spokesman for European affairs added. The Irish want Mairead McGuinness, their EU commissioner, and their embassy to the EU to screen all future legislation before it is formalised to ensure it poses no risk to the peace process.

    The commission, which is jealously protective of its power to propose EU legislation, is yet to respond to the Irish demand. There is a growing belief in Irish government circles that the commission will not submit to the proposal, which would likely take the form of a formal undertaking by Brussels.

    Ursula von der Leyen, the commission president, dodged a direct question over whether she would cave to Dublin on Friday and instead repeated that triggering Article 16 had been a mistake. Irish MPs now plan to question Maros Sefcovic, the commission’s vice-president, who is overseeing the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Mr Sefcovic will speak at the Irish parliament on Tuesday and will be asked to explain Mrs Von der Leyen’s oversight.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/national/irish-government-wants-veto-over-eu-legislation-concerning-northern-irish-protocol/ar-BB1dEvwc?ocid=msedgntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    edited February 2021
    DAN HODGES: The Irish Sea border is bringing the spectre of violence





    Sammy Cotter has been running his grocery wholesalers for a quarter of a century. But now he’s living day to day. ‘I’ve got £7,000 worth of goods sitting in Manchester,’ he tells me. ‘It was supposed to be delivered on December 21. But I’m still waiting.’

    At first glance, his warehouse in Quarry Heights, Newtownards, County Down, resembles a mini Aladdin’s Cave. But then I notice the rows of empty shelves against the far wall.

    ‘This is the problem,’ he says, holding up an impenetrable-looking form with several rows of eight-digit ‘Commodity Codes’.

    ‘We’ve been shipping things from England for years. But now each product needs its own number. And the people I’m buying from still haven’t got to grips with the new system. There are at least 40 separate items that can’t get across.’

    It’s this bureaucratic – but to Sammy all too real – trade border across the sea that has brought me to Northern Ireland. I’ve been told that Boris’s abandonment of his Democratic Unionist Party partners, combined with post-Brexit EU sabre-rattling, has pushed Ulster to boiling point. The fragile peace brokered on a Good Friday is even said to be in jeopardy.




    But Mr Cotter seems more resigned than resentful. He admits to feeling let down. ‘We shouldn’t have this happening. This is part of the UK and we sell to the UK. If this stuff was going on [to the Irish Republic], fair enough. But we’ve been supplying locally for decades.’

    But he refuses to criticise Boris. And he expresses support for DUP MP Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, who recently called on the Government to get to grips with the issue.

    As I head back down the hill, I begin to wonder if all the talk of rising tensions had been overhyped. Then I swing out on to the main road taking me back to Belfast. In front of me is a long, grey terrace. The graffiti ‘DUP Sell-Outs Be Warned!!’ is scrawled on the wall in giant letters. Next to it is a symbol of a sniper’s crosshairs.

    The catalyst for the current concerns about renewed violence was an announcement that Customs inspectors had been withdrawn from the port of Larne following direct threats against them. As with much in Northern Irish politics, that incident has itself become mired in confusion and controversy, as the Police Service of Northern Ireland, trade unions and nationalist politicians all cast doubt on the validity of the threat.

    But as I approach Larne, it quickly becomes clear the level of local opposition to the implementation of the Brexit agreement is real. A makeshift ‘Larne says No to the Irish Sea Border’ banner quickly gives way to a series of professionally produced signs demanding ‘Scrap the NI protocol’.

    At the roundabout at the port entrance, you are welcomed by graffiti proclaiming ‘No Irish Sea border’ and another set of snipers’ crosshairs. Walking around the half-deserted port town, a couple of other things quickly become apparent. One is that given the sensitivity of the graffiti, it seems strange it hasn’t quickly been removed. Another is that it’s hard to see how such an overt campaign could be mounted without support from the local community.




    I’ve come to Larne to meet ‘Robert’ – he won’t give me his last name – who I’ve been told is involved in co-ordinating the anti-protocol campaign at grassroots level. As a harsh wind sweeps off the bay, he says it’s true he’s involved in the poster campaign: ‘It’s so popular we can’t keep up with demand.’

    But he denies involvement with any graffiti or threats.

    I ask if it’s true that claims tensions are bubbling over are over-hyped. ‘It’s the other way round,’ he tells me, ‘if it wasn’t for Covid, things would be really escalating. I think there’s a real chance we’re going to see street violence.’ Could it still reach that point, I ask. He nods. ‘If the politicians are going to act, they need to do it quickly.’

    As I leave Robert and drive away, I pass yet more graffiti. ‘All bets are off,’ it says.

    During the Brexit referendum, the issue of Northern Ireland and borders seemed completely abstract. A historical aberration. Even when you’re in Larne, you look out across the bay to the Irish Sea and the barrier that is causing all the problems remains invisible.

    But to both of Northern Ireland’s communities, they are neither an abstraction, nor a historic curiosity. And as I return to Belfast, I get to observe a nightly ritual.

    Just a couple of minutes down from the mural of hunger-striker Bobby Sands is Northumberland Street, a small through-road connecting the Republican Falls Road with the Protestant Shankill Road. At the Falls end are two steel gates. The Northern Ireland Justice Department refers to them as ‘Interface Gates’, but they’re more commonly known as ‘the peace line’.

    Every Monday to Thursday, at 6.30pm sharp, a man appears in a small white Transit van. He parks, gets out and walks up to the gates and pulls them shut. Then he locks them.

    As I watch, a red car comes racing up the road. But it’s arrived a split second too late. The driver turns, reverses, then heads off the way he came. Behind him, the Loyalist and Republican communities have been safely locked in for another night. Or safely locked apart.

    The villagers of Crossmaglen are equally well aware of the hard realities of a hard border. During the Troubles, this tiny South Armagh village was the heart of ‘bandit country’. Dozens of British soldiers and RUC men were gunned down patrolling the surrounding lanes and fields.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519




    And it, and dozens of similar communities that nestle alongside the Irish Republic, have again found themselves thrust into the centre of the spiralling tensions over Brexit and the Good Friday Agreement.

    As I park up in the square, alongside the monument to the Republican movement, a simple remedy is proffered. ‘The Solution To Brexit – Irish Unity’ says a sign. Above it stands a large mural, the ‘Roll of Honour to the South Armagh Brigade’.

    But, of course, a resolution is not quite that simple. The creation of the trade border in the Irish Sea was designed to prevent one forming along the land border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, anathema to the North’s Nationalist community.

    But then last week, in a bid to tackle the spread of Covid, the Irish government appeared to announce the border would in fact be closed. Garda roadblocks were being introduced to fine or turn back those crossing without a valid reason.

    Mary (not her real name) runs one of the local shops. She explains to me that if there is a new Covid border, it’s about as effective as one made of Swiss cheese. ‘People are still crossing all the time,’ she says.

    Mike (again, not his real name) is setting up a stall from his van. ‘I got stopped on Wednesday,’ he says, ‘but then they [the Garda] moved on. It’s no real bother.’

    Unfortunately, it is to a Unionist community who think a border has been imposed down the Irish Sea because one between the Republic and Northern Ireland was unconscionable.

    Jamie Bryson describes himself as a ‘loyalist activist’ who is involved with ‘community groups’. He asks me not to disclose where we meet because of ‘threats’, but as I pull up I pass more of the ubiquitous ‘No Irish Sea Border’ graffiti.

    ‘You now have a border between East and West in order to keep away a border between North and South. That has upset the balance. The view across Unionism and Loyalism is that border was put in the Irish Sea to placate the threat of violence by Irish Nationalists who said you couldn’t have so much as a CCTV camera on the border,’ he says.

    Last week, Michael Gove held meetings with EU officials to find a way of easing border restrictions. Could this be a possible solution? I ask Jamie.

    ‘If you paved the Irish Sea border with gold, it still wouldn’t be acceptable to the Unionist community,’ he says.

    So how close are we to a resumption of serious violence?

    ‘The Government is playing with fire. No loyalist group is there at this point in time. But it’s very difficult to argue against someone who says, “Nationalism used the threat of political violence, we didn’t, and look what’s happened to us. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.” ’

    Had the Irish Sea border been what its creators intended it to be – a pragmatic but flexible bureaucratic solution to a seemingly intransigent problem – Northern Ireland’s loyalist community might, just, have worn it. But given it is causing real hardship to real lives, anyone who spends more than five minutes here can see even the most moderate Unionist cannot countenance it.

    Yes, people may be playing politics as next year’s Northern Ireland Assembly elections hove into view. Maybe the likes of Jamie Bryson may have their own intricate games to play within Unionism’s myriad factions. But if the border issues gets layered over an existing Stormont crisis, and Unionism’s factions do fracture, it will end in catastrophe.

    Because one thing is clear. The Loyalist community believes it’s being betrayed. By a Government it thought was its ally. And by a nation it had pledged allegiance to.

    I spoke to a Bangor fisherman called Paul Leeman, and asked how he had voted in the referendum. ‘I voted to leave,’ he told me, ‘and I know some people are saying, “Serves you right!” But seriously, what way is that to speak to your own kin?’

    As I leave Northern Ireland, one thing stands out. Paul and Sammy and Mike and Mary share a different heritage. But they are essentially the same. Working men and women, trying to make their way. And each has the same view of one thing. None of them wants a border in their lives.

    But they keep being forced upon them. The Peace Border between Belfast’s communities. The Vaccine Border imposed by the EU two weeks ago. The Covid Border imposed by the Irish government. The Trade Border imposed by the British Government down the Irish Sea.

    The people of Northern Ireland have enough borders. It’s time to open them. Before it’s too late.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/dan-hodges-the-irish-sea-border-is-bringing-the-spectre-of-violence/ar-BB1dEQPX?ocid=msedgntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 31,519
    edited February 2021
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