hi Gareth, there's nothing i'd be betting tonight but in the Puppy Derby Final Bim Bam Boozle in trap 2 could surprise the fav at around 8/1 10/1 .. if getting a clear run at the first bend .. I'd say the best bet on the night could be Corrig Vieri (9 10) priced 9/4 in most places ..but small money .. I think this is on SkyTV not sure ..
hi Gareth, there's nothing i'd be betting tonight but in the Puppy Derby Final Bim Bam Boozle in trap 2 could surprise the fav at around 8/1 10/1 .. if getting a clear run at the first bend .. I'd say the best bet on the night could be Corrig Vieri (9 10) priced 9/4 in most places ..but small money .. I think this is on SkyTV not sure .. glk benny Posted by bennydip2
Cheers for the reply, yeah its on sky thats why i want a bet, never abck doigs big as i dont know enough about them but will have a small flutter.
Well your best bet was more of a donkey thna a dog but 2nd came close
Was looking like a bad night, after laying out £68 quid first 4 races returned nothing. The 8.50 trio came in for a poxy £27.32 after the first few trios paid 100+, but the last race saved the day with trio paying 187.14 ) for a toal retrun of £209.46.
Was close to being an excellent night having at least 2 placed in all but 1 race, but cant complain about £140 quid profit
nice result mate ... well done ....... I never had a bet, although ive been checking out some ante-post betting.. Today was the final declarations to the Greyhound Derby, with the first heats on the 29th April .. I'll post about that race soon, but my banker still remains 'Eye Onthe Storm' although any firm offering less than 8/1 is not worth having a bet with...
I went around my mates this morning (he's got a few quid) ... Anyway he's having a party next week for a few guests...we walked out to the back paddock and of course he has two swimming pools as well........... then I noticed that, one pool was full to the top with water and the other was empty ?? So I asked him, "Why is one pool full with water and the other empty ?" "Ahhh" , He said,
Went to the doctor's the other day and found out my new doctors a female and 'drop dead' gorgeous ! I was a bit embarrassed but she said, "Don't worry I'm a professional, I've seen it all before, just tell me what's wrong and I'll help you in any way I can ........................... I said,
A British passenger in a taxi in Dublin leaned over to ask the driver a question and tapped him on the shoulder.
The driver let out a scream, lost control of the cab, hit the side of a bus, drove up over the curb, and stopped just inches from the edge of the bridge over the Liffey River.
For a few moments everything was silent in the cab, and then the still
shaking driver said, 'I'm sorry, but you scared the devil himself out of me.'
The Brit apologized to the driver and said he didn't realize a mere tap on the shoulder could frighten an Irishman so much.
The driver replied, ' Will the Saints in Heaven forgive me, it's entirely my fault. Today is my first day driving a cab'...
'I've been driving a hearse for the last 25 years.'
Friday is the second day of the first round heats for the 2010 Greyhound Derby which now takes on a completely different light after the disaster for ante-post favourite Eye Onthe Storm, who appeared to break down at the third bend when holding a qualifying position. The race continued to stunned silence. Irish Laurels hero Sevenheads Bay, after mastering Barnfield Rocky, had taken a lead down the back, but was picked up by Fraser Black's Krug Ninety Five (8-1, 28.72sec) on the run in with Barnfield Rocky third.
So the value is still there for 'FreedomEmma' who runs (10 30 Saturday), with nearly all Firms still laying 100/1 with the exception of SkyBet 66/1 .. I really dont know why Skybet bother with this type of betting, virtually every dog (bar one) they come out so much under priced, and in a lot of cases HALF the price that other firms offer ... My other ante post bet now for this race is DALCASH SCOLARI - (10 00 Saturday) generally on offer at 50/1, but SkyBet as expected only 40/1 (joke) ..
I'm hoping 'Eye Onthe Storm' injury is not as bad as feared and he makes a full recovery, I know Mark and the kennel staff will be devastated by what happened last night....
It's the end of racing for 'Frankie' pet name of Eye Onthe Storm, one of the best dogs I have ever seen race ..
A HORRIBLE drive home lay ahead for Patrick Janssens, assistant trainer for Mark Wallis. He was trying to put a brave face on things – and it’s not the end of the world – but it was the last time we will see Eye Onthe Storm race.
It is not a good memory, as the stricken dog kept on trying to run, but this appeared a severely broken hock and there can be no point bringing a dog of that class back. A few moments after the race, the only issue for me was just how bad was the injury? But it sounds as if a career at stud now awaits, so again, it’s not hopeless.
Total silence enveloped the stand when he broke down at the third. He had overcome his poor draw, and looked set to qualify, but scrimmaging in front caught him slightly unawares, then suddenly he had injured himself.
It was a racing injury. There is no fault, but that does not make it any easier to bear for his connections. The Derby dream has ended – and for a kennel that last year went through the most unexpected high thanks to Kinda Ready.
Hard to imagine that the very next year of the same event held this. Life and sport can be so cruel. It will be hard for owner John Keefe; his brilliantly fast dog had delivered such wonderful wins to excite and dream over. But now, John will be only shedding tears.
I Know personally how hard these injury's can affect the whole staff, when I was with Richard Yeates, we had a fabulous b'itch called 'Stay For A Song' the same thing happened, she broke her hock in three places, and as I carried her off the track all you are praying for is the vet can save them. We went into the vets surgery at the track, the vet said, it was a very bad injury but she could be saved.
It's hard to explain the relief as the vet gave her pain killers then went about setting the bones . Weeks later and her leg in a wire brace she was on the road to recovery, she later went on to have 'pups of her own and is now happily retired in Ireland...
There are memories we go through that are hard to take when we get so close, for 'Frankie' I'm hoping he'll enjoy his retirement, he'll be sadly missed at the track but much loved at home ..
Right, shopping's all done, dogs been fed, and that **** seagull, has been roasted, wings spread, feet in the air with it's boots on, looking like a rack of lamb with the chief's hats on, and an orange up it's @rse .... that'll teach it to wake me up at 4.30 am .... )
So what shall we bet on today, well nothing big but a small few bets on dogs tonight and the 2000gns 3.25 - Dalcash Scolari ..22:00 Wimbledon
"The sad sight of both dog and Patrick on their way back to the paddock prompted the Wimbledon crowd to an amazing round of applause in response to his efforts and the next and last heat was run in almost silence in respect, truly amazing. As you could imagine the last few days have been difficult to say the least. The vet at Wimbledon did a fine job of strapping Eye Onthe Storm up so we could get him back to the kennel and Patrick and Cheryl headed back on the two hour journey, after a night like that it must have seemed endless. The first phone call very early on Friday morning came from Nick Savva who strongly advised me to take our seriously injured fella to Daniel Doherty in Uxbridge who had expertly pieced together a nasty hock injury to his Ardmayle Courier the week before. Without hesitation Patrick was back on the road with a bemused and sorry looking but happy 'Frankie' and after initial x-rays revealed some nasty looking breaks that certainly looked almost impossible to fix Daniel got to work with some extensive surgery that lasted late into the night. Satisfied that everything had gone well he not only waited for him to come round from his operation but also took 'Frankie' home with him to keep an eye on him overnight. Like all champions as you would expect 'Frankie' lay there awake but as good as gold for the concerned vet and the great news that we could pick him up on Saturday was a huge relief to all.
I have to say a massive thank you to Daniel Doherty for his expertise and it goes without saying how proud I am of the professionalism shown by both Patrick and Cheryl in difficult circumstances. Again I can't say how sorry I feel for John and Teresa Keefe who's pride and joy had given them so much pleasure in an all too short career. Also a heartfelt thank you to all those messages of goodwill from many people in the greyhound industry who had expressed their concern for Eye Onthe Storm over the last few days. Thankfully 'Frankie' looks to be in the clear and rest assured he will have a happy and loving retirement once he recovers from his injury in a few months. In all Eye Onthe Storm had 31 races winning 20 times which included three Category 1's - the Nottingham Puppy Classic, The Eclipse and most recently the Blue Riband, as well as a string of one off and Sky races including a track record at Hall Green. He brilliantly won the final leg of the Trainers Championship meeting at Doncaster a few weeks a go winning our kennel the title in dramatic fashion and I personally thank him for giving me one of the best feelings I have had in greyhound racing that night. It's not said often but the majestic and brilliant Eye Onthe Storm was a superstar in our sport, one which will be sorely missed on the track".
It's no secret that my poker hero's are, for his play, 'Stu Ungur', the other for his writing 'Mike Caro', both are old school, and different in their approach to the game and life, but both set the standards that the modern players strive to acheive .. .. 25 years ago, I read this, it helped me to understand that nothing has a percentage that gives you the odds to call a bet, it's just not that simple, however more importantly it's knowing the player and reading the 'tells' !! .... Some things just aren't what they seem ..... even today ..
A lecture that will change your poker outlook
It is a concept that takes us far, far beyond just the basic strategies of winning at poker. "Caro's Conception" makes us aware that there is a level of poker prowess that is very real, yet nearly not definable.
This mysterious force doesn't just appear in poker, but in real life, too. But, I'm getting ahead of the story. First, I've got to tell you what the Conception - or concept - is based upon. It's based upon a puzzling truth, long known to those who ponder such things - the truth that strengths are not always ordered by hierarchy. Sometimes strengths can overlap and some people can't even beat opponents that those they conquer could beat.
Have you ever played rock-paper-scissors? It's a guessing game where you make up and down motions with your right hand three times in unison with an opponent. At the end of the third time, without stalling or looking to see what your opponent is doing, you show a tight fist - indicating a rock - or a flat, open hand - indicating paper - or two fingers - indicating scissors.
Rock, paper, or scissors. Those are your choices. Fine. But who wins? Well, if both of you show the same type of object, obviously it's a tie and nobody wins. But if the two objects indicated by your hands are different, somebody wins.
It goes like this. A rock loses to paper, because paper covers it. So, paper is better than rock. And, scissors beats paper, because scissors cut paper. So, at the low end, you have rock, which gets covered by paper, which then gets cut by scissors, making scissors the overall champ in the hierarchy of this game. Right?
No! It doesn't work that way. Scissors get smashed by rock. So, if I let you choose which you wanted - rock, paper, or scissors - no matter which you chose, I could always beat you. OK, but that's just a contrived game.
Beyond the scissors game
Does this strangeness, where there is no strongest choice, happen outside this made-up game? Yes! When I first wrote about this in Gambling Times magazine in the early 1980s, I used examples with cards. Since then, I and others have spent hours coming up with compelling poker examples of this phenomenon.
My favorite example comes from hold 'em. Here are three hands:
4 h 4 s
J h 10 h
A c K d
Suppose I were to put those three poker hands on the and gave you your choice of hand. Then I would pick a hand from the remaining two hands to challenge you. Which would you choose first? Well, it doesn't matter which you'd choose first, because you couldn't win. There is no best hand!
You see, jack-10 of hearts wins about 53 percent of the time against the two fours. So, let's match that winner, J-10 of hearts, against the ace-king unsuited. Now ace-king wins almost 59 percent of the time. So, we've got two fours on the low end. They can't even beat the J-10 suited. And, in turn, J-10 suited gets annihilated by ace-king. So, it looks like two fours is the worst hand in the group and ace-king is the best. But, just for fun, let's put the lowly two fours against the champion - ace-king. This should be no contest.
You're right, it's no contest. The two fours win 54 percent of the time. Huh? I thought the two fours couldn't even beat J-10 suited, and J-10 suited was trounced by ace-king, so how come ace-king loses to the weak two fours.
When strengths overlap in poker
It's because strengths can overlap in poker and in life. Certain hands, certain people, certain teams, certain organizations, certain strategies can be ideally suited to beat others. And still, they can fail time and time again to beat whatever could be beaten easily by those they conquered.
But "Caro's Conception" isn't about selected cards or rock-paper-scissors. I'm sure people made puzzles out of similar overlaps in strength centuries ago. "Caro's Conception" takes this a step further and suggests that these overlaps in strength exist all around us. It will help you succeed in poker or in life if you can identify when this puzzling force of nature is happening.
In poker, I believe that different playing styles can be ideally geared to destroy certain types of opponents. For instance, let's take three different players. Arnold is ultra-tight and unobservant. Betty is moderately tight and easy to manipulate. And Craig is looser and playful.
Other poker skills being similar, Arnold could lose forever to Betty. Why? Although Betty is too tight, she's not as tight as Arnold and gains ground by stealing some pots. She's easy to manipulate, but Arnold - who is unobservant -- doesn't take advantage by manipulating Betty. Therefore, Betty's weakness - being manipulable -- doesn't harm her, because this isn't exploited. So, let's put the winning player, Betty, who is moderately tight and easy to manipulate, against Craig -- our looser and playful foe. Well, here it's no contest. Craig looses a little ground to the moderately tight opponent by playing too many hands. But Betty is easily manipulable, so she falls victim to Craig's carefully crafted, playful image. This gives Craig the advantage overall. So, now we have a champion, right? It's Craig.
Why Craig can't beat Arnold
But, wait! Let's match him up against that ultra-tight and unobservant opponent named Arnold. Stangely, Arnold now dethrones Craig. Arnold is too tight and Craig is too loose. This part of their game is a push. But Arnold isn't falling for Craig's playful image. And Craig wastes money time and time again trying to be manipulative.
Here's the key. You should look for similar overlaps in strength whenever you play poker. Adjust your game specifically for the opponents you're facing right now. You'll be much more successful if you do that than if you use a one-size-fits-all strategy. And you'll stop wondering why Morris loses day in and day out, but usually takes your money. Stop feeling singled out and just change your tactics.
But the really big truth behind "Caro's Conception" is that these overlaps are happening all the time in real life. That's why Adam is domineered by Bob and Bob is, in turn, in the control of Carla, But Carla, who would seem to be at the top of the leadership ladder, is putty in the hands of lowly Adam.
Start looking around and you'll see this happening everywhere. You'll also understand why one person, whom you'd like to be pals with, gets along with all your other friends, but not with you. Just like in poker, the trick is to modify your behavior to interact more successfully with that individual. But you can only do that if you contrast your traits with the other persons' to pinpoint the collisions. Then it's easy to steer around the obstacles.
"Caro's Conception" defined
Remember "Caro's Conception." It states: "In life, strength is sometimes circular. Therefore, the conqueror can be an underdog to an entity too weak even to defeat what has been already conquered."
In poker and in life, there are game plans that are ideally suited for certain opponents that fail against lesser ones. Once you realize this and adapt, you're taking your game to the next level.
Today Wednesday was the first day of Chester Vase meeting, and also one of the first trials for the filly's who may run in the Epsom Oaks .. Gertrude Bell took the step up to Listed company in her stride with an authoritative display in the Weatherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks at Chester. An Interestingly named filly this after the famous Gertrude Bell who was one of the main objectors to the Women's Suffragettes movement ...
From the look of the filly's on display on this first day, its a good job the Suffragettes won the day ..
BANK ACCOUNT!!! This is AWESOME ... something we should all remember. A 92-year-old, petite, well-poised and proud man, who is fully dressed eachmorning by eight o'clock, with his hair fashionably combed and shavedperfectly, even though he is legally blind, moved to a nursing home today. His wife of 70 years recently passed away, making the move necessary. Aftermany hours of waiting patiently in the lobby of the nursing home, he smiledsweetly when told his room was ready. As he maneuvered his walker to the elevator, I provided a visual descriptionof his tiny room, including the eyelet sheets that had been hung on his window. I love it,' he stated with the enthusiasm of an eight-year-old having justbeen presented with a new puppy. Mr. Jones, you haven't seen the room; just wait.' 'That doesn't have anything to do with it,' he replied. Happiness is something you decide on ahead of time. Whether I like my room or not doesn't depend on how the furniture isarranged .. it's how I arrange my mind. I already decided to love it. 'It's a decision I make every morning when I wake up. I have a choice; I can spend the day in bed recounting the difficulty I have with theparts of my body that no longer work, or get out of bed and be thankfulfor the ones that do. Each day is a gift, and as long as my eyes open, I'll focus on the new dayand all the happy memories I've stored away.. Just for this time in my life..
Old age is like a bank account. You withdraw from what you've put in.So, my advice to you would be to deposit a lot of happiness in the bankaccount of memories! Thank you for your part in filling myMemory Bank. I am still depositing. 'Remember the five simple rules to be happy: 1. Free your heart from hatred. 2. Free your mind from worries. 3. Live simply. 4. Give more. 5. Expect less. Pass this message to 7 people except me. You will receive a miracle tomorrow. Now, STOP! Did you hear what I just said. You WILL receive a miracleTomorrow. So send it right now! Have a nice day, unless you already have other plans.
The second round of the Greyhound Derby gets underway tonight (Friday) and again tomorrow (Saturday) at Wimbledon.. So with our ante-post bet on "Freedom Emma" still live, I'll be watching with interest tonight when she runs in the 9 30 from Trap 3 ..
Her race looks a hot heat with the ( 4 ) dog being a hot favourite, however if she breaks well, I can see her following the ( 1 ) dog to the first bend, and from there on the battle could be between 3-1-4.. OK I'm biased in my opinion but some bookies are offering 8/1 about her tonight, and for me thats great value e/w , 1/4 odds first two !! I'm on .. )
Comments
I'd say the best bet on the night could be Corrig Vieri (9 10) priced 9/4 in most places ..but small money .. I think this is on SkyTV not sure ..
glk benny
Thanks again
Gareth
Was looking like a bad night, after laying out £68 quid first 4 races returned nothing. The 8.50 trio came in for a poxy £27.32 after the first few trios paid 100+, but the last race saved the day with trio paying 187.14
Was close to being an excellent night having at least 2 placed in all but 1 race, but cant complain about £140 quid profit
Gareth
Today was the final declarations to the Greyhound Derby, with the first heats on the 29th April .. I'll post about that race soon, but my banker still remains 'Eye Onthe Storm' although any firm offering less than 8/1 is not worth having a bet with...
"Why is one pool full with water and the other empty ?"
"Ahhh" , He said,
"Some of the guests cant swim" !!!
"Don't worry I'm a professional, I've seen it all before, just tell me what's wrong and I'll help you in any way I can ........................... I said,
" hmm , I think me Coc' tastes funny" !!!
8/1 Eye Onthe Storm ...Greyhound Derby
10/1 Canford Cliffs .. Stan James 2000 Guineas (Newmarket)
10/1 D ick Turpin... Irish 2000 Guineas
JUST A TAP ON THE SHOULDER
A British passenger in a taxi in Dublin leaned over to ask the driver a
question and tapped him on the shoulder.
The driver let out a scream, lost control of the cab, hit the side of a bus, drove up
over the curb, and stopped just inches from the edge of the bridge over the
Liffey River.
For a few moments everything was silent in the cab, and then the still
shaking driver said,
'I'm sorry, but you scared the devil himself out of me.'
The Brit apologized to the driver and said he didn't realize
)
a mere tap on the shoulder could frighten an Irishman so much.
The driver replied,
' Will the Saints in Heaven forgive me, it's entirely my
fault. Today is my first day driving a cab'...
'I've been driving a hearse for the last 25 years.'
Irish Laurels hero Sevenheads Bay, after mastering Barnfield Rocky, had taken a lead down the back, but was picked up by Fraser Black's Krug Ninety Five (8-1, 28.72sec) on the run in with Barnfield Rocky third.
So the value is still there for 'Freedom Emma' who runs (10 30 Saturday), with nearly all Firms still laying 100/1 with the exception of SkyBet 66/1 ..
I really dont know why Skybet bother with this type of betting, virtually every dog (bar one) they come out so much under priced, and in a lot of cases HALF the price that other firms offer ...
My other ante post bet now for this race is DALCASH SCOLARI - (10 00 Saturday) generally on offer at 50/1, but SkyBet as expected only 40/1 (joke) ..
I'm hoping 'Eye Onthe Storm' injury is not as bad as feared and he makes a full recovery, I know Mark and the kennel staff will be devastated by what happened last night....
A HORRIBLE drive home lay ahead for Patrick Janssens, assistant trainer for Mark Wallis. He was trying to put a brave face on things – and it’s not the end of the world – but it was the last time we will see Eye Onthe Storm race.
It is not a good memory, as the stricken dog kept on trying to run, but this appeared a severely broken hock and there can be no point bringing a dog of that class back. A few moments after the race, the only issue for me was just how bad was the injury? But it sounds as if a career at stud now awaits, so again, it’s not hopeless.
Total silence enveloped the stand when he broke down at the third. He had overcome his poor draw, and looked set to qualify, but scrimmaging in front caught him slightly unawares, then suddenly he had injured himself.
It was a racing injury. There is no fault, but that does not make it any easier to bear for his connections. The Derby dream has ended – and for a kennel that last year went through the most unexpected high thanks to Kinda Ready.
Hard to imagine that the very next year of the same event held this. Life and sport can be so cruel. It will be hard for owner John Keefe; his brilliantly fast dog had delivered such wonderful wins to excite and dream over. But now, John will be only shedding tears.
I Know personally how hard these injury's can affect the whole staff, when I was with Richard Yeates, we had a fabulous b'itch called 'Stay For A Song' the same thing happened, she broke her hock in three places, and as I carried her off the track all you are praying for is the vet can save them. We went into the vets surgery at the track, the vet said, it was a very bad injury but she could be saved.
It's hard to explain the relief as the vet gave her pain killers then went about setting the bones .
Weeks later and her leg in a wire brace she was on the road to recovery, she later went on to have 'pups of her own and is now happily retired in Ireland...
There are memories we go through that are hard to take when we get so close, for 'Frankie' I'm hoping he'll enjoy his retirement, he'll be sadly missed at the track but much loved at home ..
Eye Onthe Storm
So what shall we bet on today, well nothing big but a small few bets on dogs tonight and the 2000gns
3.25 - Dalcash Scolari ..22:00 Wimbledon
5.00 - Freedom Emma ..22:30 Wimbledon
11.00 - Canford Cliffs ..15:05 Newmarket (e/w)
29.00 - Hearts of Fire .. 15.05 Newmarket (e/w)
Mark Wallis update on 'Eye Onthe Storm' !
"The sad sight of both dog and Patrick on their way back to the paddock prompted the Wimbledon crowd to an amazing round of applause in response to his efforts and the next and last heat was run in almost silence in respect, truly amazing. As you could imagine the last few days have been difficult to say the least. The vet at Wimbledon did a fine job of strapping Eye Onthe Storm up so we could get him back to the kennel and Patrick and Cheryl headed back on the two hour journey, after a night like that it must have seemed endless. The first phone call very early on Friday morning came from Nick Savva who strongly advised me to take our seriously injured fella to Daniel Doherty in Uxbridge who had expertly pieced together a nasty hock injury to his Ardmayle Courier the week before. Without hesitation Patrick was back on the road with a bemused and sorry looking but happy 'Frankie' and after initial x-rays revealed some nasty looking breaks that certainly looked almost impossible to fix Daniel got to work with some extensive surgery that lasted late into the night. Satisfied that everything had gone well he not only waited for him to come round from his operation but also took 'Frankie' home with him to keep an eye on him overnight. Like all champions as you would expect 'Frankie' lay there awake but as good as gold for the concerned vet and the great news that we could pick him up on Saturday was a huge relief to all.
I have to say a massive thank you to Daniel Doherty for his expertise and it goes without saying how proud I am of the professionalism shown by both Patrick and Cheryl in difficult circumstances. Again I can't say how sorry I feel for John and Teresa Keefe who's pride and joy had given them so much pleasure in an all too short career. Also a heartfelt thank you to all those messages of goodwill from many people in the greyhound industry who had expressed their concern for Eye Onthe Storm over the last few days. Thankfully 'Frankie' looks to be in the clear and rest assured he will have a happy and loving retirement once he recovers from his injury in a few months. In all Eye Onthe Storm had 31 races winning 20 times which included three Category 1's - the Nottingham Puppy Classic, The Eclipse and most recently the Blue Riband, as well as a string of one off and Sky races including a track record at Hall Green. He brilliantly won the final leg of the Trainers Championship meeting at Doncaster a few weeks a go winning our kennel the title in dramatic fashion and I personally thank him for giving me one of the best feelings I have had in greyhound racing that night. It's not said often but the majestic and brilliant Eye Onthe Storm was a superstar in our sport, one which will be sorely missed on the track".
A lecture that will change your poker outlook
It is a concept that takes us far, far beyond just the basic strategies of winning at poker. "Caro's Conception" makes us aware that there is a level of poker prowess that is very real, yet nearly not definable.
This mysterious force doesn't just appear in poker, but in real life, too. But, I'm getting ahead of the story. First, I've got to tell you what the Conception - or concept - is based upon. It's based upon a puzzling truth, long known to those who ponder such things - the truth that strengths are not always ordered by hierarchy. Sometimes strengths can overlap and some people can't even beat opponents that those they conquer could beat.
Have you ever played rock-paper-scissors? It's a guessing game where you make up and down motions with your right hand three times in unison with an opponent. At the end of the third time, without stalling or looking to see what your opponent is doing, you show a tight fist - indicating a rock - or a flat, open hand - indicating paper - or two fingers - indicating scissors.
Rock, paper, or scissors. Those are your choices. Fine. But who wins? Well, if both of you show the same type of object, obviously it's a tie and nobody wins. But if the two objects indicated by your hands are different, somebody wins.
It goes like this. A rock loses to paper, because paper covers it. So, paper is better than rock. And, scissors beats paper, because scissors cut paper. So, at the low end, you have rock, which gets covered by paper, which then gets cut by scissors, making scissors the overall champ in the hierarchy of this game. Right?
No! It doesn't work that way. Scissors get smashed by rock. So, if I let you choose which you wanted - rock, paper, or scissors - no matter which you chose, I could always beat you. OK, but that's just a contrived game.
Beyond the scissors game
Does this strangeness, where there is no strongest choice, happen outside this made-up game? Yes! When I first wrote about this in Gambling Times magazine in the early 1980s, I used examples with cards. Since then, I and others have spent hours coming up with compelling poker examples of this phenomenon.
My favorite example comes from hold 'em. Here are three hands:
4 h 4 sJ h 10 h
A c K d
Suppose I were to put those three poker hands on the and gave you your choice of hand. Then I would pick a hand from the remaining two hands to challenge you. Which would you choose first? Well, it doesn't matter which you'd choose first, because you couldn't win. There is no best hand!
You see, jack-10 of hearts wins about 53 percent of the time against the two fours. So, let's match that winner, J-10 of hearts, against the ace-king unsuited. Now ace-king wins almost 59 percent of the time. So, we've got two fours on the low end. They can't even beat the J-10 suited. And, in turn, J-10 suited gets annihilated by ace-king. So, it looks like two fours is the worst hand in the group and ace-king is the best. But, just for fun, let's put the lowly two fours against the champion - ace-king. This should be no contest.
You're right, it's no contest. The two fours win 54 percent of the time. Huh? I thought the two fours couldn't even beat J-10 suited, and J-10 suited was trounced by ace-king, so how come ace-king loses to the weak two fours.
When strengths overlap in poker
It's because strengths can overlap in poker and in life. Certain hands, certain people, certain teams, certain organizations, certain strategies can be ideally suited to beat others. And still, they can fail time and time again to beat whatever could be beaten easily by those they conquered.
But "Caro's Conception" isn't about selected cards or rock-paper-scissors. I'm sure people made puzzles out of similar overlaps in strength centuries ago. "Caro's Conception" takes this a step further and suggests that these overlaps in strength exist all around us. It will help you succeed in poker or in life if you can identify when this puzzling force of nature is happening.
In poker, I believe that different playing styles can be ideally geared to destroy certain types of opponents. For instance, let's take three different players. Arnold is ultra-tight and unobservant. Betty is moderately tight and easy to manipulate. And Craig is looser and playful.
Other poker skills being similar, Arnold could lose forever to Betty. Why? Although Betty is too tight, she's not as tight as Arnold and gains ground by stealing some pots. She's easy to manipulate, but Arnold - who is unobservant -- doesn't take advantage by manipulating Betty. Therefore, Betty's weakness - being manipulable -- doesn't harm her, because this isn't exploited. So, let's put the winning player, Betty, who is moderately tight and easy to manipulate, against Craig -- our looser and playful foe. Well, here it's no contest. Craig looses a little ground to the moderately tight opponent by playing too many hands. But Betty is easily manipulable, so she falls victim to Craig's carefully crafted, playful image. This gives Craig the advantage overall. So, now we have a champion, right? It's Craig.
Why Craig can't beat Arnold
But, wait! Let's match him up against that ultra-tight and unobservant opponent named Arnold. Stangely, Arnold now dethrones Craig. Arnold is too tight and Craig is too loose. This part of their game is a push. But Arnold isn't falling for Craig's playful image. And Craig wastes money time and time again trying to be manipulative.
Here's the key. You should look for similar overlaps in strength whenever you play poker. Adjust your game specifically for the opponents you're facing right now. You'll be much more successful if you do that than if you use a one-size-fits-all strategy. And you'll stop wondering why Morris loses day in and day out, but usually takes your money. Stop feeling singled out and just change your tactics.
But the really big truth behind "Caro's Conception" is that these overlaps are happening all the time in real life. That's why Adam is domineered by Bob and Bob is, in turn, in the control of Carla, But Carla, who would seem to be at the top of the leadership ladder, is putty in the hands of lowly Adam.
Start looking around and you'll see this happening everywhere. You'll also understand why one person, whom you'd like to be pals with, gets along with all your other friends, but not with you. Just like in poker, the trick is to modify your behavior to interact more successfully with that individual. But you can only do that if you contrast your traits with the other persons' to pinpoint the collisions. Then it's easy to steer around the obstacles.
"Caro's Conception" defined
Remember "Caro's Conception." It states: "In life, strength is sometimes circular. Therefore, the conqueror can be an underdog to an entity too weak even to defeat what has been already conquered."
In poker and in life, there are game plans that are ideally suited for certain opponents that fail against lesser ones. Once you realize this and adapt, you're taking your game to the next level.
glk
Gertrude Bell took the step up to Listed company in her stride with an authoritative display in the Weatherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks at Chester.
An Interestingly named filly this after the famous Gertrude Bell who was one of the main objectors to the Women's Suffragettes movement ...
From the look of the filly's on display on this first day, its a good job the Suffragettes won the day ..
Now where did I leave my pint ?
BANK ACCOUNT!!!
This is AWESOME ... something we should all remember.
A 92-year-old, petite, well-poised and proud man, who is fully dressed each morning by eight o'clock, with his hair fashionably combed and shaved perfectly, even though he is legally blind, moved to a nursing home today.
His wife of 70 years recently passed away, making the move necessary. After many hours of waiting patiently in the lobby of the nursing home, he smiled sweetly when told his room was ready.
As he maneuvered his walker to the elevator, I provided a visual description of his tiny room, including the eyelet sheets that had been hung on his window.
I love it,' he stated with the enthusiasm of an eight-year-old having just been presented with a new puppy.
Mr. Jones, you haven't seen the room; just wait.'
'That doesn't have anything to do with it,' he replied.
Happiness is something you decide on ahead of time.
Whether I like my room or not doesn't depend on how the furniture is arranged .. it's how I arrange my mind. I already decided to love it.
'It's a decision I make every morning when I wake up. I have a choice;
I can spend the day in bed recounting the difficulty I have with the parts of my body that no longer work, or get out of bed and be thankful for the ones that do.
Each day is a gift, and as long as my eyes open, I'll focus on the new day and all the happy memories I've stored away.. Just for this time in my life..
Old age is like a bank account. You withdraw from what you've put in. So, my advice to you would be to deposit a lot of happiness in the bank account of memories!
Thank you for your part in filling my Memory Bank.
I am still depositing.
'Remember the five simple rules to be happy:
1. Free your heart from hatred.
2. Free your mind from worries.
3. Live simply.
4. Give more.
5. Expect less.
Pass this message to 7 people except me. You will receive a miracle tomorrow.
Now, STOP! Did you hear what I just said. You WILL receive a miracle Tomorrow. So send it right now!
Have a nice day, unless you already have other plans.
The second round of the Greyhound Derby gets underway tonight (Friday) and again tomorrow (Saturday) at Wimbledon..
)
So with our ante-post bet on "Freedom Emma" still live, I'll be watching with interest tonight when she runs in the 9 30 from Trap 3 ..
Her race looks a hot heat with the ( 4 ) dog being a hot favourite, however if she breaks well, I can see her following the ( 1 ) dog to the first bend, and from there on the battle could be between 3-1-4..
OK I'm biased in my opinion but some bookies are offering 8/1 about her tonight, and for me thats great value e/w , 1/4 odds first two !! I'm on ..