This is why i would bet the 2 streets in my earlier post-my betting suggests good overpair rather than the flush. hope to get action from weaker flushes etc Posted by Essexphil
UTG+1 (Has an aggressive style, 80k stack) raises to 1.3K, I 3bet in the HJ to 3.5k, Button (Has 90k) "Cold Calls", blinds folds, UTG+1 calls.
FLOP: 8d,8c,6d
I decide to check. The cold caller makes it 4.5k, UTG+1 folds and I decide, for reasons discussed previously, to just call.
TURN: Kd (So we hit the nut flush)
I feel that my opponent is likely to have, 77,99,TT,JJ or QQ, so with the King and the flush hitting, I feel he will likely fold if I bet. Also there is a possibility that I am behind to 66,88 or KK, so I decide to check.
I am expecting him to check behind with 77,99,TT,JJ,QQ as he has some showdown value, so I wouldn't normally expect him to bet these hands.
HE DOES BET THOUGH AND HE MAKES IT 8K. (From what I could tell, he didn't seem too dis-pleased about the flush hitting, although clearly this was a subjective opinion)
I wasn't expecting the C-bet, so had to think quite hard here. I wasn't folding, but should I re-raise or just call. It could still be as I originally thought, a pocket pair less than a King, just played differently to what I would expect. It could be a slow played AA, that I am also now ahead off.
Could it be a worse flush?
If I thought he had a pocket pair, then clearly he can't have a flush. Also I have the Ace of Diamonds, so his pre flop range that makes a flush is almost non-existent imo, KdQd maybe. So I discounted a flush. I was beginning to suspect that he did have a house, but that would very specifically have to be 66 or KK, and a remote chance of quads with 88. I JUST CALL.
RIVER: 5s
I CHECK AGAIN, MY OPPONENT PUTS OUT A BIG BET. 22K.
yeah i'm just snap calling we are so underepresented and think we easily win enough to justify calling. I don't think there's any value in raising here on the paired board
There is about 50k in the pot now-cannot fold here. Similarly, with the possible exception of the K flush, most losing hands would fold to a raise. I don't think this is a crying call-i think you are about 50% to win the hand. Snap call for me
^ Pot is not 50k but 37k. So we have to call 22k into a pot that will be 81k and need to be good just 27% of the time.
I agree with your range StayOrGo in that it's pretty unlikely villain has a worse flush (unless you had specific reads that he was loose and capable of cold calling pretty wide - KdQd is not possible btw as Kd is on board :P ) - However, our range looks pretty weak here - we probably have a decent amount of QQ-JJ and some AK hands (maybe AdKx) so it's possible he could bluff here - at the same time, it's hard to see what he can be bluffing with. It's possible he had TT/99 (maybe just with Td or 9d combos) that decides to bet turn & river (after going for thin value/protection OTF) trying to fold out your QQ-JJ - not all players are capable of turning made hands into bluffs, but if he is capable then he only needs 2 combos of it (eg. TcTd, TsTd) for us to have 33.3% equity and making a call correct*
Also, even though it's pretty unlikely villain has a worse flush w/o any reads it's possible he calls here pre-flop with a hand like 9dTd. Which would need only 1 bluff combo then to make a call correct.
Overall I think we are getting too good odds and just have too strong a bluff-catcher to fold. AdKx might be better to call since we block his KK combos and his nut flushes but I think this is OK to call too.
* I discounted 66 in villains range since I think most would fold this pre. If he does call it pre then we would need him to have 3 bluff/value hands combined instead of 2 - which I think is reasonable since if he's calling 66 pre he's calling wider than we expect and might have more worse hands he wants to turn into a bluff or be more likely to have 9dTd.
What are the chances or what did you reckon the chances were that this guy could be floating a pired board knowing it was very likely to be scary for you on later streets?
When you under rep your hand by checking the turn it would be the perfect turn for him to start trying to rep / push you off with any float he has made.
The big bet on the river polarises his hand to super stong or air and the more I read the more I feel like he could have an airball here....
^ Pot is not 50k but 37k. So we have to call 22k into a pot that will be 81k and need to be good just 27% of the time. I agree with your range StayOrGo in that it's pretty unlikely villain has a worse flush (unless you had specific reads that he was loose and capable of cold calling pretty wide - KdQd is not possible btw as Kd is on board :P )- However, our range looks pretty weak here - we probably have a decent amount of QQ-JJ and some AK hands (maybe AdKx) so it's possible he could bluff here - at the same time, it's hard to see what he can be bluffing with. It's possible he had TT/99 (maybe just with Td or 9d combos) that decides to bet turn & river (after going for thin value/protection OTF) trying to fold out your QQ-JJ - not all players are capable of turning made hands into bluffs, but if he is capable then he only needs 2 combos of it (eg. TcTd, TsTd) for us to have 33.3% equity and making a call correct* Also, even though it's pretty unlikely villain has a worse flush w/o any reads it's possible he calls here pre-flop with a hand like 9dTd. Which would need only 1 bluff combo then to make a call correct. Overall I think we are getting too good odds and just have too strong a bluff-catcher to fold. AdKx might be better to call since we block his KK combos and his nut flushes but I think this is OK to call too. * I discounted 66 in villains range since I think most would fold this pre. If he does call it pre then we would need him to have 3 bluff/value hands combined instead of 2 - which I think is reasonable since if he's calling 66 pre he's calling wider than we expect and might have more worse hands he wants to turn into a bluff or be more likely to have 9dTd. Posted by F_Ivanovic
Hi Ivan. Opps, yes indeed KdQd is not possible :=), apologies. I will disclose his hand shortly, although again your logic is very clear.
What are the chances or what did you reckon the chances were that this guy could be floating a pired board knowing it was very likely to be scary for you on later streets? When you under rep your hand by checking the turn it would be the perfect turn for him to start trying to rep / push you off with any float he has made. The big bet on the river polarises his hand to super stong or air and the more I read the more I feel like he could have an airball here.... Just a different perspective Posted by Itsover4u
Villain bet flop - he didn't float it. Also remember he cold called a 3b pre which from 95%+ players is going to be a medium- big pair or a hand like AJs-AQs. He then bet flop 3 way - which seems unlikely with an AJ/AQs hand that doesn't have a flush draw/diamond. Again OTT it's going to be hard for him to bluff without a diamond.
The only bluffs that make sense are 99/TT with a diamond but lots of players won't be turning these hands into bluffs.
As I said, I don't think it's a fold w/o reads b/c of how few bluff/value combos are needed (2 or 3 depending on if villain has 66 in his range) but it's a spot that I wouldn't be surprised to be behind.
It was hard to put him on 66, as I think most people fold this pre, when faced with an UTG+1 raise and a 3bet from the HJ.
However, we were very deep and he was in position. So I can see why he may have felt that he had the odds to set mine.
Anyhow, this turned out to be quite a dent to my stack. :=(
When I reflect upon this hand, I think I could easily have gone broke here. I'm sure if it was a £33 BH I'd be happy to get it in on the flop.
This is the good thing about playing higher stake live tournaments. It forces us to really think, rather than just go for a punt.
Thanks for all the feedback, if any of you would like to post a summation from your perspective, regarding this hand, I'd be happy for you to do so.
Cheers,
G
P.S. It pains me to say that I lost my composure/focus shortly after this hand, and followed this up with some REALLY bad mistakes, which I will detail in due couse.
I was chatting to FeelGroggy in chat on SkyPoker (£55 Speed BH I think it was) and asked him if he had seen the thread regarding the 66 yet, and what he thought?
He said he did. Didn't say too much about the 66, but mentioned, that he was very much looking forward to:
"THE MELTDOWN."
It wasn't exactly the words I would have used, but good for dramatic effect, so let the MELTDOWN begin. (Hands 17-20)
UKPC2016 SEVENTEENTH HAND:
======================
Blinds 250/500 Antie 75
Chip Count: 67K
Starting Hand: AsQs
I raise to 1,100 from UTG+2 with AQs and get called by both blinds.
FLOP: Ad,6d,4s
SB checks, BB checks, I check.
TURN: 9d
SB checks, BB checks, I bet 2K (into a pot of 4K), SB calls, BB folds.
RIVER: Jh
SB checks, I bet 4k, SB calls and shows a set of 9's.
Well the first thing people are probably thinking is, "Why didn't I C-bet the flop?" This clearly would be the "normal course of action". The truth is, I thought they'd probably fold, and decided to check to perhaps get them to bluff or to get a turn bet paid.
I do tend to mix up how I play these hands in these spots, as the thought of not getting paid for my hand is always lurking in the back on my mind, so I will often take a chance at being outdrawn to keep worse hands in.
I don't really know, whether this was right, there was a sense of loss after the previous hand, and I wanted to maximise any potential chip gain.
TURN:
Didn't really want to see a diamond, but they both checked again, so I bet 2K into a 4k pot. In my mind this was just a standard value bet, and I certainly didn't want them to see a free card to hit another diamond.
RIVER:
The SB checks again. I think I'm ahead and that he may call with worse, so I lead out 4k. He snaps me off with a set of 9's.
I have to say that my notes are sadly lacking for hand 18. The only comment I recorded on my phone is that "I mis-read the board and didn't realise there was a 4th club. :=(
All I remember is that I led out on the river with a straight, believing there to be three clubs and two spades on the board. I got called, he showed his hand.
I remember thinking, blimey you called me light, but I felt great that I had won a nice pot.
Then, to my horror, the dealer gave the chips to my opponent. :=(
Not a nice experience, as I looked in desperation at the card I believed to be a spade and saw that it had curly things on it. :=)
Well, if I actually typed in my thoughts here, I'd probably get barred from the forum, so I will leave that to your imagination.
Feel free to ridicule. I don't even know how much I lost in the hand. I can only assume that I was spitting feathers and recording exactly what happened was somewhat hi-jacked by the commotion going on inside my mind.
UTG limps, Neil Channing calls on the Button (or so I thought), I make it 3K.
UTG asks the dealer if that was an under-raise? (Opps, what's going on)
I saw Neil has one 5k chip in the middle, but I had my headphones on, and as such, I didn't hear him announce, raise, or how much.
Anyway, I pretended that I did actually know what was going on. The dealer said to the UTG guy, that my raise size was fine. UTG folded and Neil called.
Well what a disaster pre flop, I totally didn't know what was going on. I would have folded AT pre, if I knew that Neil had raised. But anyway, having unintentionally 3bet (some people may class it as a 4bet, because of the limper), I now had to make the best of it.
POST FLOP
A fairly standard lead out.
TURN:
Again, I'd suggest this is a fairly standard lead out.
RIVER:
I decide to check the river for pot control, and also, at the time I thought a lot of two pair combo's could have got there. (Although I don't see that too much now) It could however induce a bluff from a missed draw. Neil checks behind, I show my AT and Neil mucks.
Again, another terrible lapse in concentration. I got away with this one. In fact it worked in my favour, but I should never have been in the hand. I guess the question is, "Did I miss out on value by not betting the river?"
I raise to 1.4K UTG+1, with ATs, Neil Channing calls in the BB.
(Sad fact, I am so superstitious, that I never like to bet 13 hundred, so I made it 14 hundred, where in fact, 13 hundred would be more in line with my style. Still having therapy to get over this, along with my standard OCD of always having to have my chips up the "right" way. :=)
FLOP: Jd7d3c
Neil checks, I lead out 2.5K (into a 3.8K pot), Neil calls.
TURN: 9s
Neil checks, I check
RIVER: Qs
Neil checks. I decide to "give up" and check behind. Neil shows 63s and wins with bottom pair.
UKPC2016 TWENTIETH HAND: ===================== Blinds 300/600 Antie 75 Chip Count: 70K Starting Hand: AdTd PRE-FLOP I raise to 1.4K UTG+1, with ATs, Neil Channing calls in the BB. (Sad fact, I am so superstitious, that I never like to bet 13 hundred, so I made it 14 hundred, where in fact, 13 hundred would be more in line with my style. Still having therapy to get over this, along with my standard OCD of always having to have my chips up the "right" way. :=) FLOP: Jd7d3c Neil checks, I lead out 2.5K (into a 3.8K pot), Neil calls. TURN: 9s Neil checks, I check RIVER: Qs Neil checks. I decide to "give up" and check behind. Neil shows 63s and wins with bottom pair. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My Thoughts: I think this was a poorly played hand by me. Although, to be fair to myself, it was a tricky board, I think a bet on the turn or river would probably have won the day, but I couldn't find it. Thoughts welcome. Who double barrels? Who triple barrels? Who bets river after checking flop? Who just gives up? Feel free to comment. G Posted by StayOrGo
So there's 8.8k on the turn. I think I would go in the region of 6k-6.5k and apply pressure to his non jack hands and build the pot for when we make our flush / straight. A queen is a river I would choose to triple barrel here, if my turn bet was called. It's a card that's not good for many of Neil's hand's and having a ten reduces the chance he has a straight (although that is unlikely anyway) I think Neil would be hard pressed to think of many hands we could have that would play as bet bet bet here and be bluffs, given that the board is really connected.
Hand 18 I would check the river with there being a 4 flush on board.
Sorry, couldn't resist! :P
I think hand 17 I would always bet flop with us having a BDNFD since there are more runouts where we can get 3 streets of value (and it is disguised too)
With another AQ hand (eg. AhQh) I'd be happy to check for deception/balance and be happy to get 2 streets of value on turn & river.
Hand 19 there is zero value in a river bet IMO: can't see any worse hands calling here.
Hand 20 I agree with FeelGroggy. I would definitely be barrelling this turn - it's a great card for us - we can fold out his 7x (and any worse) and build a nice pot in-case we hit our flush or straight. Qs is a card I would be triple barrelling with too. As played after you check turn I would go for a river bet.
Gah I replied but lost it again because i wasn't logged in.
Hand 17, I would bet this as a default and If I was to check AQ here it would probably be with AxQd. Having checked the flop i like betting two streets for value.
Hand 18- oops
Hand 19 seems like you made the best out of an awkward situation. If Neil bets It's really gross for us I'm not sure what the best play would be.
I had a similar one where I went to open the cut off with A5o and put in raising chips, the dealer then asked what my action was and i glanced to my right and saw what I thought was UTG with chips in the pot. I panicked and declared call. Only then did I realise UTG hadn't put chips in the pot and I'd just got confused. So i had just open limped with ace 5. The BB then isolated me quite big so i just folded.
Comments
Blinds 250/500 Antie 75
FEEL FREE TO COMMENT. THOUGHTS/OPINIONS WELCOME FROM ALL!
Cheers,
G
Blinds 250/500 Antie 75
Blinds 250/500 Antie 75
Blinds 300/600 Antie 75
Blinds 300/600 Antie 75