In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : What you say is true; however, I accounted for our "edge" by saying that if it was just a 0.5k (or slightly less than 1bb) advantage then there is perhaps an option to take the lower variance route and check like you did. However, I think it's much likely that the true estimate is closer to at least a 2/possibly 3bb better. That's too significant an edge to pass up IMO especially in a spot that won't be too high variance in the first place. (ie. we're not putting in a significant portion of our stack at this point) Our skill advantage in poker comes in many different forms - but being able to take the highest +ev option on a specific street is where some of our advantage comes from. Another quick point: By being able to barrel the turn with some strong semi-bluff hands as opposed to just made hands, we force our opponents to make less "wide" flop calls. I'm only speculating here, but it could be possible that Neil has picked up on the fact you are happy to fire a c-bet, but generally won't continue OTT without a made hand. Thus, this enables him to call flop with his bottom pair knowing that he will be good enough % AND that he will be able to take his hand to showdown. If he's against someone that he knows will double barrel wider than just with value hands then calling the flop goes from being good to (likely) bad. Maybe I'm giving Neil too much credit though and he's just a fish that likes to call with bottom pair Moving on to the A7o hand I would tend to agree with Lambert. I know you are looser than most but if you are opening A7 from UTG+1 then you are likely opening at least 25% of hands from that position. There are certainly some situations where you can get away with opening that wide, but a good player being on the CO is not something we want when widening our range here. There's just so many ways a good player can exploit a wide opening range like that in EP Posted by F_Ivanovic
Thanks again for these points Ivan.
I think we may just need to agree to differ on these two scenarios. You have put across your points very well, and I take them on board, although, on balance I am OK with how I played them (particularly the A7o one to this point.) The other one is a closer call and I haven't finalised my conclusion yet.
I guess we are not going to convince each other all the time. However, the time taken, and the detail of your responses is much appreciated.
The thing is though, when someone is a 25/20 player for example, that's their average stats across all positions, generally because they are playing a much wider range from late position/CO/BTN, but will still be relatively tight in EP. Fwiw, I'm not against loosening up pre, I'd just rather do it with something that can flop a bit better, even the likes of T7s, 89s etc.
I think it could be open for debate/down to styles if we open A7o or not when UTG1 in a 6max game, that's a bit closer, but fullring though I think pretty much everyone is gonna say it's a fold pre.
According to standard hand range charts/Equilab kinda programs, you'd need to be opening 28% of hands (specifically from UTG1 only) to include A7o in your opening range, and if you're opening 28% from UTG1 then your overall VPIP must be in the region of 50-60%+ and I can't think of anyone with a 50-60% VPIP in full-ring games, maybe some of the best in the world but even then I'm not sure.
I'm not trying to have a dig at you all, and I doubt you do actually play 50-60% VPIP, I assume this was just a time you fancied opening.
The thing is though, when someone is a 25/20 player for example, that's their average stats across all positions , generally because they are playing a much wider range from late position/CO/BTN, but will still be relatively tight in EP. Fwiw, I'm not against loosening up pre, I'd just rather do it with something that can flop a bit better, even the likes of T7s, 89s etc. I think it could be open for debate/down to styles if we open A7o or not when UTG1 in a 6max game, that's a bit closer, but fullring though I think pretty much everyone is gonna say it's a fold pre. According to standard hand range charts/Equilab kinda programs, you'd need to be opening 28% of hands (specifically from UTG1 only) to include A7o in your opening range, and if you're opening 28% from UTG1 then your overall VPIP must be in the region of 50-60%+ and I can't think of anyone with a 50-60% VPIP in full-ring games, maybe some of the best in the world but even then I'm not sure. I'm not trying to have a dig at you all, and I doubt you do actually play 50-60% VPIP, I assume this was just a time you fancied opening. Posted by Lambert180
Cheers for this Paul.
I think there are other things to take into consideration. Table dynamic, opponent styles etc, but I take your point.
FWIW, I posted my actual stats earlier in the thread.
This was from a HM2 P-Stars report from 128,000 hands. I've played > 2 million hands on Stars, but this is a fairly new laptop, and I didn't transfer HH's. However the stats were pretty much the same.
For 9 handed tables on Stars, they are:
VPIP: 25.2
PFR: 20.5
3bet: 9.76
My PFR from Early Position on Stars is 18.8%, which alows me to play A7o from UTG+1, in some cases (but certainly not all) I would say, full ring, I probably play A7o from UTG+1 25% of the time, depending on a multitude of circumstances. Some of those circumstances, will simply be a gut feel. On this occasion I felt the table, in general, was very passive, which was probably the deciding factor in my deciding to raise.
I suggested my stats (6 handed) on Sky are:
35/30/12
Following on from this. As much as I do make use of some things in HM2 on Stars (I wish HUDS didn't exist, but I feel I need one on Stars to be on a level playing field) , I've always been a "feel" player, so I don't play text book style at all. (This has advantages and disadvantages)
BTW, I THINK IT'S GREAT THAT THERE ARE NO HUD'S ON SKY (NOT THAT I'M AWARE OF ANYWAY)
I very much have my own way. In fact I think it is quite good to deviate from the norm, especially if the table dynamic is more text book amongst your opponents.
Of course this is a convenient statement for me, as it's always an argument in defense of my plays, when I deviate from the norm, text book.
In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME : Hi Phil, is this for hand 21? (The flopped two pair with A7) If it is, you are probably just joking, but the run out wasn't bad for me on this hand, so no reason for disgust. However if you are refering to hand 20 when we missed our Diamond and gut-shot (With AdTd), the the disgust expression makes more sense. Cheers, G P.S. NOTE FOR ALL: It will be useful for me, if people can clarify the hand they are refering to, by it's number. Just to avoid any confusion. Posted by StayOrGo
Hand 21.
Not just joking-will 50% of the time check call there. agree it is strong, but would like someone else to bet
In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME : Hand 21. Not just joking-will 50% of the time check call there. agree it is strong, but would like someone else to bet Posted by Essexphil
Hi Phil.
So are you check calling primarily to induce a bluff, or do you think you may be behind? Or bit of both? Could you put a percentage on it?
I would suggest I'm ahead say 80% of the time. (Don't know if you agree)
So in my mind, if I check/called it would be primarily to try and induce a bluff, if I think he has missed a draw. It is also pot control for the 20% of the time that I am behind.
If people opinions differ widely to this, then their "reason" for check/calling may more weighted to pot control, than bluff inducing. So it's worth thinking about how often you would consider yourself to be ahead. Then having determined that, how often do you think he'd call a river bet and finally. How often to you think he'd attempt to bluff a missed draw/weak holding.
So lets ask the wider audience this question first, as these points are key in determining the best river play.
HOW OFTEN DO YOU THINK I AM AHEAD AFTER THE RIVER?
In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME : Hi Phil. So are you check calling primarily to induce a bluff, or do you think you may be behind? Or bit of both? Could you put a percentage on it? I would suggest I'm ahead say 80% of the time. (Don't know if you agree) So in my mind, if I check/called it would be primarily to try and induce a bluff, if I think he has missed a draw. It is also pot control for the 20% of the time that I am behind. If people opinions differ widely to this, then their "reason" for check/calling may more weighted to pot control, than bluff inducing. So it's worth thinking about how often you would consider yourself to be ahead. Then having determined that, how often do you think he'd call a river bet and finally. How often to you think he'd attempt to bluff a missed draw/weak holding. So lets ask the wider audience this question first, as these points are key in determining the best river play. HOW OFTEN DO YOU THINK I AM AHEAD AFTER THE RIVER? Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
i think you are ahead 75-80% of the time, so (to my mind) the pot control bit is 20-25%. People are probably calling a 50% bet with any a and 2 pair-just feel may get more action by checking
Hand 21- I wouldn't elect to open this personally, If I was to get a bit looser with opens I'd prefer to do it with a hand like 75s which can smash a big disguised hand sometimes. A7o plays badly postflop and even when we hit top pair we aren't going to be loving our hand.
I think I'd bet a bit larger on the flop and turn. I can't see the turn but I imagine its some kind of brick.
On the river we could elect to check call his missed draws. However I think given he's called an EP open his only bluffs are going to be JTs or QJc. I think he's much more likely to have some kind of value here, whether its KQc KJc which hit a king (which could potentially just fold) or just a hand like AJ/ AQ. Given that some draws miss, he might be more inclined to make a light call on the river so I think I bet. If we had a weaker ace here, such as A8s, I would probably check call as there are less hands to value bet from which makes bluff catching a more attractive option
Hand 21- I wouldn't elect to open this personally, If I was to get a bit looser with opens I'd prefer to do it with a hand like 75s which can smash a big disguised hand sometimes. A7o plays badly postflop and even when we hit top pair we aren't going to be loving our hand. I think I'd bet a bit larger on the flop and turn. I can't see the turn but I imagine its some kind of brick. On the river we could elect to check call his missed draws. However I think given he's called an EP open his only bluffs are going to be JTs or QJc. I think he's much more likely to have some kind of value here, whether its KQc KJc which hit a king (which could potentially just fold) or just a hand like AJ/ AQ. Given that some draws miss, he might be more inclined to make a light call on the river so I think I bet. If we had a weaker ace here, such as A8s, I would probably check call as there are less hands to value bet from which makes bluff catching a more attractive option Posted by FeelGroggy
Cheers for this Danny, again your responses make sense. (I'm still happy with my A7o open though) :=)
That's not to say one should always open with it from UTG+1, far from it, but I'm just saying that for me, and my game, I still think that there are some scenarios/dynamics when I feel it is OK to do so.
Particularly I agree with your point in blue. (It's hard to get called by worse) and pot control is more important as you can more easily be behind.
BTW, the turn was Kh and the river 3h. Not sure why you couldn't see them. (no flush on the board)
Anyhow, I did C-bet, I made it 8k and he folded. Don't know what he had.
I guess the jury is still out as to whether this was the right thing to do.
I was in the M/E today, "The 8K BH at 8pm" and IrishRose was moved onto the table, with a monster stack (110K when the blinds were 250/500) She was chip leader of the tournament.
I congratulated her on the stack that she had accrued, and her reply surprised me:
She said, "It's down to your thread G"
Isn't that just fantastic! She's a very humble lady of course, and always encouraging others. I have noticed her game improving a lot recently, which is all credit to her.
If this thread has helped her (Not just my post, but the replies too), how wonderful is that!
To be able to help a fine lady like Rose, who supports everybody and gives so much to others and charity initiatives etc, is just wonderful, in my eyes.
She clearly has read this with an open mind.
Yes, the differing opinions I have with others (and sometimes the masses) can sometimes cause an egoic response (in myself and others) as we seem to get stuck to, and cherish our opinions. I think a reasonable amount of discussion, followed by an agreement to disagree, is fine btw.
Rose has shown, just how valuable it is to read the thread and all the responses with an open mind.
I am so pleased that this has helped Rose, and I really hope that others have found it useful too. I do think, by discussing actual hands, that there is a benefit that you can get from it, that perhaps a standard NLHE strategy book can't provide.
It's a lot of work, I will be honest with you, but worth every minute spent doing it, if it helps friends like Rose (I hope it's OK to call you a friend R) and other players that I respect in the Sky Poker community.
I really do hope that those with an open mind, that are prepared to read this, continue to benefit from it.
I also want to thank the very good players that have replied with their thoughts and opinions, which has brought into the open, a lot of detail regarding the issues involved.
Many thanks,
G
P.S. GL ROSE. JUST AS I WRITE THIS ROSE IS IN 2ND PLACE IN THE MAIN (239K) WITH 13 LEFT. TID ROSIE! X
(I AM PURPOSEFULLY NOT RAILING HER, AS I WANT HER TO FOCUS 100%, BUT I AM VERY MUCH HOPING SHE CAN TID!)
In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: BTW, the turn was Kh and the river 3h. Not sure why you couldn't see them. (no flush on the board) Anyhow, I did C-bet, I made it 8k and he folded. Don't know what he had. I guess the jury is still out as to whether this was the right thing to do. Cheers all, for the input. G Posted by StayOrGo
i didn't see the turn card when I wrote that sentence, double checked it and saw it but forgot to edit out me saying I didn't see it- oops
and if you're opening 28% from UTG1 then your overall VPIP must be in the region of 50-60%+ and I can't think of anyone with a 50-60% VPIP in full-ring games, maybe some of the best in the world but even then I'm not sure. I'm not trying to have a dig at you all, and I doubt you do actually play 50-60% VPIP, I assume this was just a time you fancied opening. Posted by Lambert180
His VPIP will be high by playing A7o but not that high since you are not accounting for times that the pot is opened before you and you have to fold a hand you might have opened. Thus, it's possible that in later positions (at least up till CO) that his VPIP will be lower than in EP. And then it might increase slightly on CO and a bit more OTB. If I had to guess each position it might look something like:
UTG = 24
UTG+1 = 25
UTG+2 = 23
UTG+3 = 21
HJ = 23
CO = 25
BTN = 30
SB = 15
BB = 28
Which is pretty loose, but not quite as loose as 50/60 total VPIP!
In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME : His VPIP will be high by playing A7o but not that high since you are not accounting for times that the pot is opened before you and you have to fold a hand you might have opened. Thus, it's possible that in later positions (at least up till CO) that his VPIP will be lower than in EP. And then it might increase slightly on CO and a bit more OTB. If I had to guess each position it might look something like: UTG = 24 UTG+1 = 25 UTG+2 = 23 UTG+3 = 21 HJ = 23 CO = 25 BTN = 30 SB = 15 BB = 28 Which is pretty loose, but not quite as loose as 50/60 total VPIP! Posted by F_Ivanovic
Not quite true Ivan, but pretty close.
According to HM2. My VPIP's, PFR's are
Early Positions: 19.3% ; 18.8% (UTG, UTG+1 and UTG+2, I think)
Mid Positions: 22.9% ; 21.0% (UTG+3, HJ)
CutOff: 25,6% ; 22.8%
Button: 26.9% ; 23.3%
SB: 32.1% ; 24.4%
BB: 32.5% ;12.7%
Average VPIP: 25.2%
Average PFR: 20.5%
As I mentioned before, due to my lack of calling, my VPIP is pretty close to my PFR except in the blinds. Looking at the stats, I should probably call more on the button than I do and a little less in the blinds.
My EP estimates were based on you opening A7o most of the time but makes sense that your actual VPIP is lower given you did say it's something you only do in certain situations.
SB does seem quite loose but the fact your PFR is 24.4 suggests it's folded to you in the SB more than I thought it might - although I think slightly tighter 25-28 VPIP is probably better from there (no idea why I said 15,that's def too low!) BB call looks fine. Whilst we are OOP in the blinds having chips already in the pot means we are often getting a good price on a call.
One point, I have just checked my "Report" on HM2 for Stars, and the previous stats were for all games (ie 6max and 9max, and when seats are open) So they are slightly too high.
I nearly always play full ring on Stars, so not too much difference.
However:
When I filter solely on 9 handed tables my stats are as follows:
VPIP: 22.4%
PFR: 17.4%
3bet 8.96%
When I filter solely on 6 handed tables my stats are as follows:
VPIP: 30.0%
PFR: 25.4%
3bet 11.6%
So I'm slightly less aggro than I originally suggested.
Thanks for the kind words Mr StayorGo - but I fell short in 4th after all that.
I'm loving this thread - and think it's great of you to share so much of your thoughts/play process on here. I really feel it has helped loads - I'm even folding a few hands compared to playing everything (honest!!).
I'm also loving the different points of view of the other players. It's so nice to have a thread where people can agree to disagree - and where different points of view strangely all make sense at the same time!
Can I ask an embarrassing novice question though please? I've never really studied the game before and I'm now trying to improve my game. I don't however understand a lot of poker technical terms (insert blush like beetroot here).
Thanks for the kind words Mr StayorGo - but I fell short in 4th after all that. I'm loving this thread - and think it's great of you to share so much of your thoughts/play process on here. I really feel it has helped loads - I'm even folding a few hands compared to playing everything (honest!!). I'm also loving the different points of view of the other players. It's so nice to have a thread where people can agree to disagree - and where different points of view strangely all make sense at the same time! Can I ask an embarrassing novice question though please? I've never really studied the game before and I'm now trying to improve my game. I don't however understand a lot of poker technical terms (insert blush like beetroot here). What does VPIP, PFR etc mean please? Posted by IrishRose
Thanks for this Rose. Much appreciated.
4th place is great btw!
At the end of the day, it is very hard to win these tournaments (I haven't won a M/E on Sky since 2014)
To get to a final table in one, is a great achievement in itself, so well done.
Regarding the technical terms: (These can be difficult sometimes for people who have learnt through just playing. I didn't really understand these things until fairly recently (When I started using Holdem Manager for P-Stars))
So hopefullly this will help.
VPIP = Voluntarily Put Into Pot (So this means a limp, call or a raise pretty much.) When you post your blinds, they are compulsory, (so in themselves they don't count), but when you limp, call or raise you are Voluntarily Putting Money Into the Pot.
PFR - Pre Flop Raise
3bet (The 3bet percentage is how often you re-raise when faced with an open (initial) raise from your opponent.
(so lets say I raise 20 times agaist you, and you re-raise me on two of those occasions. (Your 3bet percentage would be10%)
So if you have a VPIP of 20% and a PFR of 15%
This means that you voluntarily put chips in the pot 20% of the time, and 15% of these are raises, meaning the other 5% are either a call or a limp (hopefully we aren't limping too much.)
For clarification, if you re-raise(3bet) pre flop, this counts towards your VPIP, PFR and 3bet stat.
My advise to players wanting to play a similar style as me is to make sure that the VPIP percentage minus the PFR percentage is approx 5%, which means you are not call or limping too much. (In reality I'm probably calling say 7% at the early stages and 2% at the latter stages, but a mean average around 5%, is what I am aiming for)
BTW, these terms are useful to discuss, but don't worry too much if you don't understand all of the "technical terms". Many players like you, and my son for example, are great players and play fundamentally on instinct, and do very well. So whilst understanding these terms is helpful, it is not the be all and end all.
Some players are great in theory, but may struggle to apply it in practice.
While others, couldn't explain to you about pot odds, statistics, probability, HUD's etc, or be able to articulate the details and thought processes involved, but just have an amazing instinct for the game.
Having said that, understanding these concepts, can become very useful, as one attempt's to develop one's game through coaching/reading books/YouTubes etc.
UTG raises to 1.7K, I call in the HJ. CUTOFF, BUTTON and blinds fold.
FLOP: Ah,9s,2h
UTG bets 2K (into a 5.5K pot), I call.
TURN: 4c
UTG checks, I bet 6k (into a 9.5K pot) , UTG folds.
My Thoughts:
PRE_FLOP
The UTG player was inexperienced (he was a satellite winner, who, to his own admission, was playing out of his depth), so I didn't mind getting involved with a pot in position against him.
FLOP: Ah,9s,2h
So I flop a flush draw and I am happy to just call my opponents raise on the flop, and see what the turn brings.
TURN: 4c
When he checks the turn, he looked as if he was giving up on the hand (there was a definate tell of weakness in his body language, although I can't say specifically what the tell was). I bet 6K and he folded.
In your post you said he was a sat winner who admitted he was out of his depth and you didn't mind playing a pot in position with him would this player been better not to say anything beforehand and would you play the hand the same way against someone with more experience
Comments
I'm not trying to have a dig at you all, and I doubt you do actually play 50-60% VPIP, I assume this was just a time you fancied opening.
Not just joking-will 50% of the time check call there. agree it is strong, but would like someone else to bet
UTG = 24
Blinds 400/800 Antie 100