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Highs Lows & Scoopio's

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    Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited August 2016
    @EvilPingu

    Great post.

    Odds are indeed below 55% on the shove vs Tikays any 4. 54% (as per my earlier post) taken from http://www.propokertools.com/simulations

    We are also taking a 32% gamble (192.5/600) of being bust in this hand, versus 0% if we fold.

    Hope the link is ok (it's free and unbranded)

    Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation ? 
    600,000 trials (Randomized)
    HandEquityScoopsWins HiTies HiWins LoTies Lo
    Ac5c6c8d54.03%236,456295,28410,708235,84014,891
    ****45.97%192,514294,00810,70873,21714,891
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,970
    edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: ----Highs Lows & Scoopio's----:
    Re: 800/1600 hand. Worked out the stacks at the start of the hand, and Pompey only has 780 chips. If you shove, you're probably ahead vs any 4 that Tikay has to call off with, but it's gonna be far better to not take that situation and ladder. If you fold, it's reasonable to assume Tikay gets a walk, which is the most likely outcome in the hand (If mmmchips shoves, it's almost certainly a mistake anyway, and that's good for us). Pompey will be in the BB next hand for less than Tikay's SB, so you cash whenever Tikay scoops because you and mmmchips should fold close to everything, if not absolutely everything, in that situation with BB all in. I would not be at all surprised if folding any 4 is optimal for both of you. Whenever he wins half of the pot or less, he's going to be all in from the SB on your BB the hand after, so when Tikay doesn't scoop, you cash if you scoop, assuming both opponents in the hand choose to fold. Tikay would be justified in limping some ultra strong stuff from UTG here I suspect, but mmmchips should (if he's playing correctly) fold any 4, and the most likely outcome is you flip vs all in SB. If the SB survives that a second time, we can still fold the SB (even if he scoops) and have Pompey flipping against Tikay again before we have to stick our last few hundred chips in in the BB again. Essentially, folding gives us plenty of opportunities for one of our opponents to get scooped against (At least 2, often more) before we have to put our tournament life at risk, whereas by shoving, we put our own tournament life at risk for very little gain.  Yes, we'll win more chips than we lose, but that's irrelevant because we'll also lose more money than we win, because the chips we lose are worth so much more money than the chips we win. Our tournament life is way, way more valuable than the few hundred chips we may or may not win in this type of game. Also, given how in PLO8, equities are so much closer, we're almost always better off folding way more than you'd expect. If you compare with an identical spot but in NLHE, if we get Aces, we are no less than 77% regardless of our opponent's holding (Excluding AA). Therefore, in NLHE, we can shove AA/KK/Possibly QQ here and it's absolutely fine, because the huge equity advantage we have vs our opponent's any 2 cards outweights the equity we need in the hand in order to put our tournament life at risk in a DYM. In PLO8, even premiums (AA23ds, A234ds etc) are never going to have that kind of advantage over an opponent with 4 random cards. Idk how much equity Ac 6c 5c 8d has vs Tikay's any 4 that he has to call with, but if it's anything more than 55%, I'll be shocked. We're going to be haemorrhaging money shoving this particular hand, and I wouldn't be surprised if we're haemorrhaging money with any 4 cards by doing anything besides folding. Cliffs: It's a trivial fold because of ICM in DYMs, combined with how equities in PLO8 are much closer than in other Poker variants. The value of our stack isn't linear in the same way that it would be at a cash table. Scooping, while useful, doesn't make an enormous difference to us, whereas getting scooped against is a disaster. Similarly, getting quartered is far worse for us than winning 3/4s is beneficial to us.
    Posted by EvilPingu


    Good analysis by Percy Pingu.

    PLO8 DYM-ers should copy that onto a Post It note & stick it to the computer screen.

    Need to be a pretty big Post It note, mind.

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    Chris_McChris_Mc Member Posts: 1,340
    edited August 2016
    Some great feedback, thanks.

    was just curious what to do, at that stage with 4 left and only having 7.5BB between the 4 of us was tough to decide what to do, especially with that time bar, i swear it gets quicker lol.

    judging from the feedback i shouldve folded, but just didnt know what to do at that stage with the blinds so high.

    think it was over the next hand and was lucky to cash so mabye next time if i end up in the same position just think it through a liite better.
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    Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: ----Highs Lows & Scoopio's---- whats the approach to an 800/1600 blind level:
    Some great feedback, thanks. was just curious what to do, at that stage with 4 left and only having 7.5BB between the 4 of us was tough to decide what to do, especially with that time bar, i swear it gets quicker lol. judging from the feedback i shouldve folded, but just didnt know what to do at that stage with the blinds so high. think it was over the next hand and was lucky to cash so mabye next time if i end up in the same position just think it through a liite better.
    Posted by Chris_Mc

    I think you deserve some credit for posting the hand. After all you won the hand and cashed the dym and could easily have forgotten all about it and assumed the play was correct.

    However you obviously had second thoughts, questionned your action and posted here for feedback.

    Shows a great attitude to the game. 

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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,970
    edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: ----Highs Lows & Scoopio's---- whats the approach to an 800/1600 blind level:
    In Response to Re: ----Highs Lows & Scoopio's---- whats the approach to an 800/1600 blind level : I think you deserve some credit for posting the hand. After all you won the hand and cashed the dym and could easily have forgotten all about it and assumed the play was correct. However you obviously had second thoughts, questionned your action and posted here for feedback. Shows a great attitude to the game
    Posted by Phantom66
    Agree 100%.

    We know that ranges in O8 run really close, & we know that when it gets 4 handed at silly Blinds, & we are sitting with 7 Bigs between 4 of us, it is a bit of a lottery, but.......

    Correct play in these spots is definitely part of the skill in these things, & the edge we can gain. And all those little edges add up.
     
    Kudos to Percy for his thorough analysis, too.  
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    Chris_McChris_Mc Member Posts: 1,340
    Hi all,
    been a while since ive been on. had to figure out how to find this diary. as its been a little over a year.

    I see there has been some forum changes, seems good makes it a little more interactive and modern looking.

    So I deposited a little amount the other night as I fancied playing plo8. I started playing quite a bit a while back nothing to serious as the previous posts in the diary will show.
    Getting a lot of feedback from other regs ion the plo8 S&G's .... having come back to it I'm right back at square one.

    Hopefully be playing a little more than I have been and see how it goes. depending on how well this very small deposit last me I might deposit a little more next week and see how it go's.

    Going to have a look around the forum a bit, see what else has changes and been happening .

    I seen there is a new plo8 competition thread on the chat will have a look at that.... and what ever happened to the 1000 plo8 game thread... is it still a thing?
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    Chris_McChris_Mc Member Posts: 1,340
    Oh... and also if someone can remind me how to rename the thread/diary that would help also
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,970

    Was good to see you back at the tables last night Chris.

    Not sure you can edit the Diary title, there are now time limitations on Editing. If you let me know the proposed new Diary name, I'll see if I can press some weird buttons & make it happen. No guarantee, but it might be possible.

    The 1,000 game challenge? Ended log ago. We don't see Maca these days, sadly, she went gallivanting round the world & I've not heard from her since. Her last game here was way back in August '16.

    Good luck mate, good to see you back.
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    Chris_McChris_Mc Member Posts: 1,340
    Around about the time i last played as well, all i was looking to do is take away the blind level question. As at the minute I'm not sure id make it 800/1600 any time soon again lol

    from this:
    ----Highs Lows & Scoopio's---- whats the approach to an 800/1600 blind level:

    to this:
    ----Highs Lows & Scoopio's----

    maybe that could be a suggestion to bring that back, to be able to rename diary headers. as i found placing a question in there helped to get feedback.

    it was good to be back. just need to read through my diary again and get back into the swing of things.
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,970

    Hi Chris,

    I'm struggling to edit the Title. Would you mind if I tried deleting most of your first post (back in 2016), as that might help?
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    Chris_McChris_Mc Member Posts: 1,340
    thats fine Tikay you can do whatever you need too.
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,970

    Sorted now Chris, that OK mate?

    I had to truncate your OP - no idea why - but the gist of it remains.
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    Chris_McChris_Mc Member Posts: 1,340
    cheers Tikay for sorting out the title.

    played a couple of games last night. not much to shout about. decided to opt.in to the plo8 mtt tourny thread. wont be able to play everynight as 11 quid a night unless I get some good results will destroy my small br. played the 2 bh's last night with not great results. found myself being to cautious i feel waiting for hands but wasn't getting anything at all.

    hopefully get back into the swing of things soon. only have a small amount in my account and looking to add to that a little on Wednesday and see.hiw long i can make it last.

    I'll mainly just be sticking with the 3.30 DYM's and below and if I'm going to use 5.50 it will be on the bounty hunters.

    not really have any goals as of yet sort apart from to play a few DYM's a night. I feel I've lost all the progress i was making and back to square 1
    and spent some time last night going through the diary again looking at the hands and feedback. hopefully get back to posting some hands again soon and get myself back in the right direction.

    anyway, currently getting a tyre changed at kwick fit, now back to work for me and see you at the tables later.tonight.
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    Chris_McChris_Mc Member Posts: 1,340
    well last night went better. felt alot more comfortable again and felt I played ok. off. the top of my head without checking I think it was 6 3.30's and managed to win the first 4 and 4th in the last 2.

    wasn't to happy with one of them as i feel i just blinded myself out and shouldve tried a liitle sooner to increase my stack. but was just getting garbage.

    will hopefully get a chance to post some hands tonight before into out for pool. need to remember to take note of the hand numbers as i think I'll struggle to find them now later.

    staued away from the 5.50 bh.s last night and tried to increase my small br with dyms which I now.have a small profit so far.

    well its back to work for.me and hopefully find some of these hands later for discussion.

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    Chris_McChris_Mc Member Posts: 1,340
    Not sure how to post hands anymore the way i used to, If anyone could help please let me know so i can post it a little clearer than these below.

    The hand below we had a little talk about in the chat box.. nothing serious but one for discussion. I have removed all names although there isn't a massive player base in plo8, some new faces though who i haven't seen before but still some coloured rings appearing on my screen for the regs who i remember from last time......(need to work on note taking though)... anyway abooot the hand. ITS my own play I'm asking for not many hands i post will be about others mainly my own line. Not the greatest ACES and after the flop i am faced a raise, without much though i will admit i smashed the re-raise ... luck for me it worked out, but against this player in question i feel i should have thought it through a little more even any player i feel i should've thought it through a little more i suppose, just curious if others think this would be the right play or should i be worried about KK mainly or 2 pairs flush straight draws, at the time great it went through, but I'm starting to lean that i maybe should be folding here? thoughts please.


    i realise there are no suits showing as i type this. My hand is AQ clubs Ah 7d... flop is 8 clubs KQ Hearts.


    Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
    player 1 Small blind 75.00 75.00 2105.00
    Chris_Mc Big blind 150.00 225.00 1635.00
    Your hole cards
    A
    Q
    A
    7

    player 2 Fold
    player 4 Raise 525.00 750.00 1335.00
    player 3 Fold
    player 1 Fold
    Chris_Mc Call 375.00 1125.00 1260.00
    Flop

    8
    Q
    K

    Chris_Mc Check
    player 4 Bet 562.50 1687.50 772.50
    Chris_Mc Raise 1125.00 2812.50 135.00
    player 4 Fold
    Chris_Mc Muck
    Chris_Mc Win 2250.00 2385.00
    Chris_Mc Return 562.50 0.00 2947.50


    Going to have a look through some other hands through last night, i didn't loses a lot of pots mainly because i don't feel i was involved in to many, overall I'm happy the way i played but need to work a little more on picking some chips up, especially at the last 4 and can be losing a lot of blinds, but my range i feel is quite tight. curious to know what others feel.

    for example looking at the hand histories and filer from biggest pot loss, there are 2 big losses which were all in on the flop or pre, the rest is 600, 600 600....... for the blinds. although gonna run through them make sure I'm not limping in to much.

    Anyway its pool for me tonight so prob wont get a chance to play, hopefully be back on tomorrow.

    ps i know my typing sucks, :)

    gl





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    adzboadzbo Member Posts: 52
    Fwiw, I think you played the hand fine. Obv it's opponent dependent but a fair few people will have a stab at that hoping you were on an A2xx kinda low hand and fold to any resistance. If you'd have bet you'd have not got anything extra in the pot so I think the check raise was fine. Sometimes it's just better to go with your immediate thinking because the more you think about what they might have (sets, flush draw etc), the more hands you tell yourself become likely, if not probable.
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    EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    edited February 2018
    Re: Hand - If we can get a decent amount of folds pre, then I'm okay with just jamming pre and expecting to take the pot a fair bit, and being happy with our equity otherwise. I'd argue it becomes more preferable in a DYM because ICM and how close PLO8 equities run should make him fold a ton of stuff, so we just scoop 750 chips a decent chunk of the time. We block AAxx too, which helps.

    Whether opponent understands/cares about ICM is a different story obvs, but even if he's not thinking on that kind of level, inexperienced folk will raise stuff that looks pretty then fold a fair bit because they're suddenly playing for their stack against a strong looking hand and not thinking ahead when they make their initial raise.

    Worst case scenario is we get called and realise our equity, probably as a marginal favourite, which isn't ideal but it's far from a disaster. Aces will hold up or improve a pretty good amount of the time for the high when we don't get folds, and we do have a low (albeit a pretty terrible low with A7) that we can never call down with and reasonably expect to win the low, but it still gives us equity AIPF when oppo gets counterfeited for the low or flicks in the call with a high only hand like KKQJds.

    I doubt it's a profitable jam if we're not getting folds for the same ICM reason above - I suspect we'll be marginally ahead % wise but losing £EV against a call range, which happens tons in these things. Yay Omaha and ICM. If oppo is loose and spewy though, we can probs just call and x/c or x/r any dry or favourable flop.

    I wouldn't ship pre vs a tighter player either just because there's not going to be a whole lot of stuff they're opening that folds, and particularly not opening to this size. Again probs peel and flick in the x/c or x/r on a decent board for us.

    Vs someone who isn't a mega nit pre and not a huge station, I like a jam.
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,970
    adzbo said:

    Fwiw, I think you played the hand fine. Obv it's opponent dependent but a fair few people will have a stab at that hoping you were on an A2xx kinda low hand and fold to any resistance. If you'd have bet you'd have not got anything extra in the pot so I think the check raise was fine. Sometimes it's just better to go with your immediate thinking because the more you think about what they might have (sets, flush draw etc), the more hands you tell yourself become likely, if not probable.

    Really?

    Wow, I can't imagine anyone who might do something like that.......

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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,970
    EvilPingu said:

    Re: Hand - If we can get a decent amount of folds pre, then I'm okay with just jamming pre and expecting to take the pot a fair bit, and being happy with our equity otherwise. I'd argue it becomes more preferable in a DYM because ICM and how close PLO8 equities run should make him fold a ton of stuff, so we just scoop 750 chips a decent chunk of the time. We block AAxx too, which helps.

    Whether opponent understands/cares about ICM is a different story obvs, but even if he's not thinking on that kind of level, inexperienced folk will raise stuff that looks pretty then fold a fair bit because they're suddenly playing for their stack against a strong looking hand and not thinking ahead when they make their initial raise.

    Worst case scenario is we get called and realise our equity, probably as a marginal favourite, which isn't ideal but it's far from a disaster. Aces will hold up or improve a pretty good amount of the time for the high when we don't get folds, and we do have a low (albeit a pretty terrible low with A7) that we can never call down with and reasonably expect to win the low, but it still gives us equity AIPF when oppo gets counterfeited for the low or flicks in the call with a high only hand like KKQJds.

    I doubt it's a profitable jam if we're not getting folds for the same ICM reason above - I suspect we'll be marginally ahead % wise but losing £EV against a call range, which happens tons in these things. Yay Omaha and ICM. If oppo is loose and spewy though, we can probs just call and x/c or x/r any dry or favourable flop.

    I wouldn't ship pre vs a tighter player either just because there's not going to be a whole lot of stuff they're opening that folds, and particularly not opening to this size. Again probs peel and flick in the x/c or x/r on a decent board for us.

    Vs someone who isn't a mega nit pre and not a huge station, I like a jam.

    That's a terrific bit of analysis.
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    adzboadzbo Member Posts: 52
    Tikay10 said:



    Really?

    Wow, I can't imagine anyone who might do something like that.......

    Uh-huh. Not something you'd ever do, hey, T

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