my mistake having just gone back through hh 666 1019am hand number #1249754356 555 which turned a 5 937am #1249749919 the other one turned the trip on the turn(my mistake) 936am #1249749880 the other hand was in my head apparently which i hold my hand up to. If skyjames would like to upload these on my behalf he is more than welcome as i cant. Im trying to close account but the chat wont open.any suggestions tikay?
No idea, sorry.
Realistically, nobody ever closes their account - they just stop playing here. It comes to the same thing.
First of all, if something is random and the probability of it occurring is greater than zero, then it's going to happen at some point, whether that's now or a million years in the future. By saying "There were 4 flops with trips, therefore RNG is broken" is flawed, in many ways.
1) If you prevent any outcome from occurring, even those that are not very likely, then by definition the RNG is no longer random. I don't see how that could possibly be any more desirable than something that is actually random lol.
2) Fwiw, the probability of this happening isn't actually that absurd at all.
Probability of trips on any given flop is P(1st card is dealt) x P(2nd card is same rank) x P(3rd card is same rank) = 1 x 3/51 x 2/50 = 1/425.
Probability of this not occurring is 424/425.
If we're dealt 80 hands an hour, let's say a flop is dealt in 60 of those hands. Over a 45 minute span, that's 45 flops. Over 45 hands...
No of flops with trips | Probability: 0 | 0.89942 1 | 0.09546 2 | 0.00495 3 | 0.00017 4 | 0.00001
Therefore, what actually happened, by Sky James' statement that it happened twice in 45 minutes, will happen roughly 0.5% of the time over the sample. If you play enough, you're going to see that happen, and far stranger things besides - Particularly as there's dozens of equally unlikely 'patterns' in randomness that are unlikely to occur within a specific period of time and you could pick up on any number of those.
For a real life comparison: Let's assume you're a doctor in a hospital, and the probability of getting a specific life threatening, non-contagious (thus mutually exclusive) disease is 0.1% - If you worked in a hospital for even a few weeks, someone would probably come in with that disease.
Now if there's a few hundred different diseases that people can have, all with a fixed 0.1% chance of occurring, it's not going to take long at all before you have a day where you see three patients with the same rare disease.
What you're doing is the same thing. You're taking the one unlikely occurrence from a large number of possible unlikely occurrences, and using that as your argument for something being biased, while ignoring all the other things that were 'normal' because the 99%+ chance occurred in which the unlikely pattern didn't happen.
Simply put, your thread title and the remainder of what I can see of your posts (Editing out pretty much the entire thread isn't cool btw...) is just an example of common cognitive biases.
Clustering illusion: Seeing patterns in small, random samples and perceiving them as not being random. This is like when people say "17 Black has come up on 4 of the last 10 Roulette spins so it's not random". Casinos capitalise on this bias (as well as Gambler's Fallacy) by having "Hot" and "Cold" numbers on Roulette to entice mug punters.
BTW, 17 Black is the nuts. Just sayin'.
Confirmation bias: You have a belief that the site might be rigged, evidenced in previous posts, then you see something occur that 'supports' your belief in your mind. Hence, you remember it.
Expectency bias (AKA experimenter bias/effect): Basically, you're only posting this because it supports your belief. If you had a normal session where nothing remotely unusual happened, you wouldn't mention it on the forum.
You're essentially allowing your mind to play tricks on you by fixating on things that are irrelevant.
yeah i know that thats why i said my mistake. its still three boards containing 3/4 of the same cards in 45 mins. Anyway not getting into this again it goes nowhere. Thats why i deleted all comments. This was not done out of spite but to end the pointless back and forth debate.
Anyway i wont post on here anymore it just seems to cause hassle. I tried to make a point the way i saw it at the time and once again ive ended up losing my rag and its gone somewhere else.Thanks to anyone who posted constructive advice.
Anyway i wont post on here anymore it just seems to cause hassle. I tried to make a point the way i saw it at the time and once again ive ended up losing my rag and its gone somewhere else.Thanks to anyone who posted constructive advice.
Progress, well done.
Good luck in the Omaha Freeroll you are currently playing, the Predator 10 seat Freeroll you have just registered for which starts at 18.30, & the Rewards Freeroll you have registered for which starts at 1930.
People can get too enthusiastic in their defence of Sky Poker. That is, at least in part, because there is a real sense of community on Sky that rarely exists on other poker sites.
That is why SPTs are much friendlier than most other tournaments. Please do not gift us £220 by not attending SPT Manchester if you have won a seat-come and enjoy yourself
id like to think ive paid enough in buy ins to play my earned freerolls tikay give me that at least!!!!
I'll give you that, but please a) stop libelling Sky Poker with defamatory thread titles & b) please don't destroy threads by deleting all of your posts on it, especially when you are the OP.
ive said all along in this thread that im not saying sky is rigged and ill not repeat myself. Like i said i wont post anymore and ive explained the reasons for deleting my posts,which i accept was wrong.Gl everyone i wont bore yas anymore on hear.Like i said i do actually enjoy playing on here bar my frustrations re RNG(who yawned??) GL all. sorry for any offence caused.Like i say these forums probably arent for me.
Allibone what you doing still posting threads, I didn't know it would take over 1 hour to close an account down. If you've changed your mind and don't want to close your account down, then take a break away from the poker tables and read the mental game of poker book.
I am a player who is known to go on tilt, reading that mental game of poker book has made a big change, the first 4 chapters alone can give a massive boost. The book itself describes how the brain has 4 levels of thought, 1.unconscious incompetence (pure luck, you not thinking and don't yet have the skills) 2.concious incompetence( you learn something your unskilled at) 3.concious competence ( you now thinking about what you've learned) 4.unconcious competence (you so well skilled at something you'll not actually need thought time)
Getting yourself very emotional and tilted will cause your conscious thought to shut down, the only decisions you make now are snap decisions which require no thought at all. My psychologist told me thinking negative makes you feel more negative and he's right, bad runs use to feel endless to me now they over in no time, I had a very bad run at the start of last week but I can't remember a single bad hand, I do remember getting a royal flush twice one week, hitting a gutshot to go ahead of set and getting all those luck hits in a freeroll to qualify for sundays main event, this in turn helps those bad runs go over quickly.
here is a list of things which indicate having mental issues this thread itself indicates 1 of them
1. Change a winning strategy when on bad runs: 2. Never recognize when someone played good against them and believe they got lucky 3. Try to win every hand 4. Thinks the outcome of a hand can be changed by shouting or playing a favourite hand 5. Gets frustrated when a player plays badly (when wins) and even educates them 6. Feels like a failure when a hand played profitably loses 7. Thinks the solution to running bad is to stop playing or changing stakes 8. Believes people are luckier than they are 9. Believes it’s possible to own another player soul 10. Plays more hands when winning/losing 11. Plays less hands when winning/losing 12. Play badly when the stakes are too small for them to care 13. Allow things to get personal with another reg 14. Tell bad beat stories to anyone that will listen while doing nothing to improve how they react to bad beats
Comments
No idea, sorry.
Realistically, nobody ever closes their account - they just stop playing here. It comes to the same thing.
1) If you prevent any outcome from occurring, even those that are not very likely, then by definition the RNG is no longer random. I don't see how that could possibly be any more desirable than something that is actually random lol.
2) Fwiw, the probability of this happening isn't actually that absurd at all.
Probability of trips on any given flop is
P(1st card is dealt) x P(2nd card is same rank) x P(3rd card is same rank)
= 1 x 3/51 x 2/50
= 1/425.
Probability of this not occurring is 424/425.
If we're dealt 80 hands an hour, let's say a flop is dealt in 60 of those hands. Over a 45 minute span, that's 45 flops. Over 45 hands...
No of flops with trips | Probability:
0 | 0.89942
1 | 0.09546
2 | 0.00495
3 | 0.00017
4 | 0.00001
Therefore, what actually happened, by Sky James' statement that it happened twice in 45 minutes, will happen roughly 0.5% of the time over the sample. If you play enough, you're going to see that happen, and far stranger things besides - Particularly as there's dozens of equally unlikely 'patterns' in randomness that are unlikely to occur within a specific period of time and you could pick up on any number of those.
For a real life comparison: Let's assume you're a doctor in a hospital, and the probability of getting a specific life threatening, non-contagious (thus mutually exclusive) disease is 0.1% - If you worked in a hospital for even a few weeks, someone would probably come in with that disease.
Now if there's a few hundred different diseases that people can have, all with a fixed 0.1% chance of occurring, it's not going to take long at all before you have a day where you see three patients with the same rare disease.
What you're doing is the same thing. You're taking the one unlikely occurrence from a large number of possible unlikely occurrences, and using that as your argument for something being biased, while ignoring all the other things that were 'normal' because the 99%+ chance occurred in which the unlikely pattern didn't happen.
Simply put, your thread title and the remainder of what I can see of your posts (Editing out pretty much the entire thread isn't cool btw...) is just an example of common cognitive biases.
- Clustering illusion: Seeing patterns in small, random samples and perceiving them as not being random. This is like when people say "17 Black has come up on 4 of the last 10 Roulette spins so it's not random". Casinos capitalise on this bias (as well as Gambler's Fallacy) by having "Hot" and "Cold" numbers on Roulette to entice mug punters.
- Confirmation bias: You have a belief that the site might be rigged, evidenced in previous posts, then you see something occur that 'supports' your belief in your mind. Hence, you remember it.
- Expectency bias (AKA experimenter bias/effect): Basically, you're only posting this because it supports your belief. If you had a normal session where nothing remotely unusual happened, you wouldn't mention it on the forum.
You're essentially allowing your mind to play tricks on you by fixating on things that are irrelevant.BTW, 17 Black is the nuts. Just sayin'.
In 100 run-outs you will see a paired board that makes trips on the turn around 12% of the time.
Good luck in the Omaha Freeroll you are currently playing, the Predator 10 seat Freeroll you have just registered for which starts at 18.30, & the Rewards Freeroll you have registered for which starts at 1930.
You want to libel Sky Poker on the one hand, but play their Freerolls. Seems a bit cake and eat it to me.
That is why SPTs are much friendlier than most other tournaments. Please do not gift us £220 by not attending SPT Manchester if you have won a seat-come and enjoy yourself
Now let's move on.
Good luck tonight.
I am a player who is known to go on tilt, reading that mental game of poker book has made a big change, the first 4 chapters alone can give a massive boost.
The book itself describes how the brain has 4 levels of thought,
1.unconscious incompetence (pure luck, you not thinking and don't yet have the skills)
2.concious incompetence( you learn something your unskilled at)
3.concious competence ( you now thinking about what you've learned)
4.unconcious competence (you so well skilled at something you'll not actually need thought time)
Getting yourself very emotional and tilted will cause your conscious thought to shut down, the only decisions you make now are snap decisions which require no thought at all. My psychologist told me thinking negative makes you feel more negative and he's right, bad runs use to feel endless to me now they over in no time, I had a very bad run at the start of last week but I can't remember a single bad hand, I do remember getting a royal flush twice one week, hitting a gutshot to go ahead of set and getting all those luck hits in a freeroll to qualify for sundays main event, this in turn helps those bad runs go over quickly.
here is a list of things which indicate having mental issues this thread itself indicates 1 of them
1. Change a winning strategy when on bad runs:
2. Never recognize when someone played good against them and believe they got lucky
3. Try to win every hand
4. Thinks the outcome of a hand can be changed by shouting or playing a favourite hand
5. Gets frustrated when a player plays badly (when wins) and even educates them
6. Feels like a failure when a hand played profitably loses
7. Thinks the solution to running bad is to stop playing or changing stakes
8. Believes people are luckier than they are
9. Believes it’s possible to own another player soul
10. Plays more hands when winning/losing
11. Plays less hands when winning/losing
12. Play badly when the stakes are too small for them to care
13. Allow things to get personal with another reg
14. Tell bad beat stories to anyone that will listen while doing nothing to improve how they react to bad beats
At this point, whilst we are all cool like Fonzy, I'm going to close the thread for a few hours so we can all be cooey-wooey for the evening.
I'll re-open it later when the storm has passed.
Thread now open for business.