MPs have voted for a fantasy. It’s an indictment of our entire political class
Stressed out by Brexit? I have a mindfulness exercise for you, one guaranteed to bring calm. Instead of imagining a deep, cool lake or a beach of bone-white sand, comfort yourself by imagining the day, several years from now, when a Chilcot-style inquiry probes the epic policy disaster that was Brexit. As you take deep breaths, and with your eyes closed, picture the squirming testimony of an aged David Cameron under sustained interrogation. Look on as Boris Johnson is at last called to account for the serial fictions of the 2016 campaign. Or perhaps contemplate the moment the panel delivers its damning, final report, concluding that this was a collective, systemic failure of the entire British political class.
@Essexphil agree with Tom , an excellent post . However , for a leaver to come on here and debate , they would have to feel like they weren't going to be talked down to , belittled and called stupid because they have differing opinions . Given the fact that the thread has been going for quite a while and we haven't had anyone from the leave camp really come on and make their case , it looks unlikely to happen.
As a remain voter, I would hope the same applies to me,and everyone be courteous.
I’m a member of a few political ‘forums’ on FB, and what Haysie posted about the rhetoric of leave voters is true of the large majority of people who post their views.
4. Tariffs While the UK is a member of the EU, there are no tariffs on trade with other EU member states. Goods imported into the EU from non-EU countries pay the EU’s common external tariff, unless there is a free trade agreement or preferential trade agreement. The tariff rate differs between different goods. While on average EU tariffs are low, they are high for some products, especially agricultural products. The trade-weighted average EU tariff for non-agricultural products was 2.3% in 2014 and 8.5% for agricultural products.4
The table below gives a breakdown by type of product. 4 WTO, World Tariff Profiles 2017, pg. 82 Average EU tariff by product type (%) Animal products 15.7 Dairy products 35.4 Fruit, vegetables and plants 10.5 Coffee, tea 6.1 Cereals and preparations 12.8 Oilseeds, fats and oils 5.6 Sugars and confectionery 23.6 Beverages and tobacco 19.6 Cotton 0.0 Other agricultural products 3.6 Fish and fish products 12.0 Minerals and metals 2.0 Petroleum 2.5 Chemicals 4.5 Wood, paper etc 0.9 Textiles 6.5 Clothing 11.5 Leather, footwear etc 4.1 Non-electrical machinery 1.9 Electrical machinery 2.8 Transport equipment 4.3 Other manufactures 2.6
2. Recent trends The share of UK exports going to the EU has declined gradually in recent years: • In 2006, the EU accounted for 55% of all UK exports. By 2016, this had fallen to 43%, before increasing slightly to 44% in 2017. • The picture on imports is slightly less clear. In 2002, 58% of UK imports were from the EU. By 2010, this had fallen to 51% but has increased slightly more recently, reaching 54% in 2016. The fall in UK exports to the EU is more pronounced in goods than in services: • In 1999, 61% of all UK goods exports were to the EU; by 2017 this had fallen to 48%. • The EU has accounted for a consistent share of UK service exports – this has remained at around 40% since 1999. Trends in trade in imports have been mixed: • The proportion of UK goods imports being sourced from the EU has remained fairly consistent since 1999. • In general, the proportion of service imports being sourced from the EU has fallen since 1999, from a high of 57% in 2003 to 49% in 2017.
@Essexphil agree with Tom , an excellent post . However , for a leaver to come on here and debate , they would have to feel like they weren't going to be talked down to , belittled and called stupid because they have differing opinions . Given the fact that the thread has been going for quite a while and we haven't had anyone from the leave camp really come on and make their case , it looks unlikely to happen.
As a remain voter, I would hope the same applies to me,and everyone be courteous.
I’m a member of a few political ‘forums’ on FB, and what Haysie posted about the rhetoric of leave voters is true of the large majority of people who post their views.
Agree , but we are specifically talking about the lack of "leave" input on this particular thread and imo the statement from me on the previous page and the way this thread has been going pretty much from the start has excluded that side from entering the debate.
Speaking earlier today, Irish Deputy PM Simon Coveney says the EU Withdrawal Agreement represents the "best and only way" for an orderly Brexit. The agreement will not be reopened.
The political declaration could be changed, he says, but there are currently no realistic alternative arrangements to the backstop.
The issue has been "explored endlessly" in the negotiations, but those alternatives tested have been "found wanting".
"We need a backstop based on legal certainty rather than wishful thinking."
There is a united desire across Northern Ireland not to return to the conflict of the past, he says, and the Irish government will not allowed that to happen, whatever the consequences.
"Some things are more important than economic relationships," he says.
The vote last night "signalled a turning point" from Theresa May on the backstop, he suggests, and this has been met with disappointment in Dublin and in Northern Ireland.
The narrative put forward by the DUP does not represent the entirety of views held in Northern Ireland, he says.
2. Recent trends The share of UK exports going to the EU has declined gradually in recent years: • In 2006, the EU accounted for 55% of all UK exports. By 2016, this had fallen to 43%, before increasing slightly to 44% in 2017. • The picture on imports is slightly less clear. In 2002, 58% of UK imports were from the EU. By 2010, this had fallen to 51% but has increased slightly more recently, reaching 54% in 2016. The fall in UK exports to the EU is more pronounced in goods than in services: • In 1999, 61% of all UK goods exports were to the EU; by 2017 this had fallen to 48%. • The EU has accounted for a consistent share of UK service exports – this has remained at around 40% since 1999. Trends in trade in imports have been mixed: • The proportion of UK goods imports being sourced from the EU has remained fairly consistent since 1999. • In general, the proportion of service imports being sourced from the EU has fallen since 1999, from a high of 57% in 2003 to 49% in 2017.
I am not sure if the percentage to EU fell because trade elsewhere increased, or the amount of trade with the EU fell.
For example if the amount of trade with the EU stayed the same and our trade with other countries increased, even though the EU trade was the same it would have fallen as a percentage of our over all trade, even though in reality it hadn't fallen.
It is still a very high percentage.
You should also include all trade that is done with other countries through EU trade deals. As this trade will be lost, at least on a temporary basis, when we leave.
The best of both worlds to me is maximising trade with The EU, the other countries that The EU has trade deals with, and increasing our trade with other countries.
Speaking earlier today, Irish Deputy PM Simon Coveney says the EU Withdrawal Agreement represents the "best and only way" for an orderly Brexit. The agreement will not be reopened.
The political declaration could be changed, he says, but there are currently no realistic alternative arrangements to the backstop.
The issue has been "explored endlessly" in the negotiations, but those alternatives tested have been "found wanting".
"We need a backstop based on legal certainty rather than wishful thinking."
There is a united desire across Northern Ireland not to return to the conflict of the past, he says, and the Irish government will not allowed that to happen, whatever the consequences.
"Some things are more important than economic relationships," he says.
The vote last night "signalled a turning point" from Theresa May on the backstop, he suggests, and this has been met with disappointment in Dublin and in Northern Ireland.
The narrative put forward by the DUP does not represent the entirety of views held in Northern Ireland, he says.
The original Backstop just applied to NI. TM insisted that the whole of the UK be treated the same. The current Backstop is what she agreed over a year ago. So what she did yesterday by voting for the Brady amendment, was to vote against her own deal.
4. Tariffs While the UK is a member of the EU, there are no tariffs on trade with other EU member states. Goods imported into the EU from non-EU countries pay the EU’s common external tariff, unless there is a free trade agreement or preferential trade agreement. The tariff rate differs between different goods. While on average EU tariffs are low, they are high for some products, especially agricultural products. The trade-weighted average EU tariff for non-agricultural products was 2.3% in 2014 and 8.5% for agricultural products.4
The table below gives a breakdown by type of product. 4 WTO, World Tariff Profiles 2017, pg. 82 Average EU tariff by product type (%) Animal products 15.7 Dairy products 35.4 Fruit, vegetables and plants 10.5 Coffee, tea 6.1 Cereals and preparations 12.8 Oilseeds, fats and oils 5.6 Sugars and confectionery 23.6 Beverages and tobacco 19.6 Cotton 0.0 Other agricultural products 3.6 Fish and fish products 12.0 Minerals and metals 2.0 Petroleum 2.5 Chemicals 4.5 Wood, paper etc 0.9 Textiles 6.5 Clothing 11.5 Leather, footwear etc 4.1 Non-electrical machinery 1.9 Electrical machinery 2.8 Transport equipment 4.3 Other manufactures 2.6
These are the tariffs that become applicable if we leave with no deal and trade on WTO rules.
Yet Tim Martin, Lord Snooty, and many other Brexiteers maintain that this will lead to cheaper prices in our shops.
@Essexphil agree with Tom , an excellent post . However , for a leaver to come on here and debate , they would have to feel like they weren't going to be talked down to , belittled and called stupid because they have differing opinions . Given the fact that the thread has been going for quite a while and we haven't had anyone from the leave camp really come on and make their case , it looks unlikely to happen.
As a remain voter, I would hope the same applies to me,and everyone be courteous.
I’m a member of a few political ‘forums’ on FB, and what Haysie posted about the rhetoric of leave voters is true of the large majority of people who post their views.
I think that it is difficult to see any genuine tangible benefits from leaving.
4. Tariffs While the UK is a member of the EU, there are no tariffs on trade with other EU member states. Goods imported into the EU from non-EU countries pay the EU’s common external tariff, unless there is a free trade agreement or preferential trade agreement. The tariff rate differs between different goods. While on average EU tariffs are low, they are high for some products, especially agricultural products. The trade-weighted average EU tariff for non-agricultural products was 2.3% in 2014 and 8.5% for agricultural products.4
The table below gives a breakdown by type of product. 4 WTO, World Tariff Profiles 2017, pg. 82 Average EU tariff by product type (%) Animal products 15.7 Dairy products 35.4 Fruit, vegetables and plants 10.5 Coffee, tea 6.1 Cereals and preparations 12.8 Oilseeds, fats and oils 5.6 Sugars and confectionery 23.6 Beverages and tobacco 19.6 Cotton 0.0 Other agricultural products 3.6 Fish and fish products 12.0 Minerals and metals 2.0 Petroleum 2.5 Chemicals 4.5 Wood, paper etc 0.9 Textiles 6.5 Clothing 11.5 Leather, footwear etc 4.1 Non-electrical machinery 1.9 Electrical machinery 2.8 Transport equipment 4.3 Other manufactures 2.6
Also these tariffs will apply to our Post Brexit trade until we are able to agree free trade deals.
The EU deal with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, and 2 years to implement.
We would be starting from scratch.
If we left with no deal, we would be the only country in the world with no trade deals.
The other thing I have not heard anyone talk about, is that one of the conditions that the EU will include in a trade deal, which I know is applicable to the Canada deal, is that before doing a substantial trade deal with someone else they have to talk to The EU.
If the EU saw us as competitors would they allow a deal to be done on similar terms, or would they insist on worse terms being offered.
They would have a lot of power in these situations, representing 27 countries, as opposed to just one.
Comments
Stressed out by Brexit? I have a mindfulness exercise for you, one guaranteed to bring calm. Instead of imagining a deep, cool lake or a beach of bone-white sand, comfort yourself by imagining the day, several years from now, when a Chilcot-style inquiry probes the epic policy disaster that was Brexit. As you take deep breaths, and with your eyes closed, picture the squirming testimony of an aged David Cameron under sustained interrogation. Look on as Boris Johnson is at last called to account for the serial fictions of the 2016 campaign. Or perhaps contemplate the moment the panel delivers its damning, final report, concluding that this was a collective, systemic failure of the entire British political class.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/columnists/mps-have-voted-for-a-fantasy-its-an-indictment-of-our-entire-political-class/ar-BBSWdNo?ocid=spartandhp#image=1
I’m a member of a few political ‘forums’ on FB, and what Haysie posted about the rhetoric of leave voters is true of the large majority of people who post their views.
Goods and services
Balance
£ billion % of total £ billion % of total £ billion
1999 133.3 54.6% 145.2 56.0% -11.8
2000 146.6 54.0% 156.2 53.5% -9.6
2001 151.1 54.3% 168.8 55.2% -17.7
2002 153.1 54.6% 182.7 58.2% -29.6
2003 154.8 52.7% 187.3 57.8% -32.5
2004 159.2 51.8% 193.4 56.7% -34.2
2005 176.9 51.6% 212.7 56.3% -35.8
2006 213.4 54.5% 242.0 56.8% -28.6
2007 194.5 50.7% 227.6 54.4% -33.1
2008 212.4 50.3% 243.8 52.8% -31.4
2009 196.2 48.8% 224.7 52.2% -28.5
2010 218.5 48.9% 246.8 51.2% -28.3
2011 243.4 48.6% 263.5 50.8% -20.1
2012 235.4 46.6% 271.4 51.2% -36.0
2013 232.2 44.3% 284.3 51.4% -52.1
2014 237.5 45.6% 290.8 52.9% -53.3
2015 225.1 43.3% 289.2 52.9% -64.1
2016 240.4 43.2% 315.1 53.6% -74.6
2017 274.0 44.5% 341.0 53.1% -67.0
Goods and services
Balance
£ billion % of total £ billion % of total £ billion
1999 110.9 45.4% 113.9 44.0% -3.0
2000 124.8 46.0% 135.9 46.5% -11.1
2001 127.4 45.7% 136.9 44.8% -9.4
2002 127.5 45.4% 131.2 41.8% -3.7
2003 139.1 47.3% 136.6 42.2% 2.5
2004 148.2 48.2% 147.7 43.3% 0.5
2005 166.2 48.4% 165.4 43.7% 0.8
2006 178.3 45.5% 184.1 43.2% -5.8
2007 188.9 49.3% 190.8 45.6% -1.9
2008 210.1 49.7% 217.7 47.2% -7.6
2009 205.9 51.2% 205.7 47.8% 0.2
2010 228.6 51.1% 235.4 48.8% -6.8
2011 257.3 51.4% 255.6 49.2% 1.6
2012 269.3 53.4% 258.9 48.8% 10.4
2013 291.4 55.7% 268.3 48.6% 23.1
2014 282.8 54.4% 259.2 47.1% 23.6
2015 294.5 56.7% 257.4 47.1% 37.1
2016 316.5 56.8% 272.8 46.4% 43.7
2017 341.9 55.5% 300.8 46.9% 41.1
While the UK is a member of the EU, there are no tariffs on trade with
other EU member states. Goods imported into the EU from non-EU
countries pay the EU’s common external tariff, unless there is a free
trade agreement or preferential trade agreement.
The tariff rate differs between different goods. While on average EU
tariffs are low, they are high for some products, especially agricultural
products. The trade-weighted average EU tariff for non-agricultural
products was 2.3% in 2014 and 8.5% for agricultural products.4
The table below gives a breakdown by type of product.
4 WTO, World Tariff Profiles 2017, pg. 82
Average EU tariff by product type (%)
Animal products 15.7
Dairy products 35.4
Fruit, vegetables and plants 10.5
Coffee, tea 6.1
Cereals and preparations 12.8
Oilseeds, fats and oils 5.6
Sugars and confectionery 23.6
Beverages and tobacco 19.6
Cotton 0.0
Other agricultural products 3.6
Fish and fish products 12.0
Minerals and metals 2.0
Petroleum 2.5
Chemicals 4.5
Wood, paper etc 0.9
Textiles 6.5
Clothing 11.5
Leather, footwear etc 4.1
Non-electrical machinery 1.9
Electrical machinery 2.8
Transport equipment 4.3
Other manufactures 2.6
The share of UK exports going to the EU has declined gradually in
recent years:
• In 2006, the EU accounted for 55% of all UK exports. By 2016,
this had fallen to 43%, before increasing slightly to 44% in 2017.
• The picture on imports is slightly less clear. In 2002, 58% of UK
imports were from the EU. By 2010, this had fallen to 51% but
has increased slightly more recently, reaching 54% in 2016.
The fall in UK exports to the EU is more pronounced in goods than in
services:
• In 1999, 61% of all UK goods exports were to the EU; by 2017
this had fallen to 48%.
• The EU has accounted for a consistent share of UK service exports
– this has remained at around 40% since 1999.
Trends in trade in imports have been mixed:
• The proportion of UK goods imports being sourced from the EU
has remained fairly consistent since 1999.
• In general, the proportion of service imports being sourced from
the EU has fallen since 1999, from a high of 57% in 2003 to 49%
in 2017.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf
The political declaration could be changed, he says, but there are currently no realistic alternative arrangements to the backstop.
The issue has been "explored endlessly" in the negotiations, but those alternatives tested have been "found wanting".
"We need a backstop based on legal certainty rather than wishful thinking."
There is a united desire across Northern Ireland not to return to the conflict of the past, he says, and the Irish government will not allowed that to happen, whatever the consequences.
"Some things are more important than economic relationships," he says.
The vote last night "signalled a turning point" from Theresa May on the backstop, he suggests, and this has been met with disappointment in Dublin and in Northern Ireland.
The narrative put forward by the DUP does not represent the entirety of views held in Northern Ireland, he says.
For example if the amount of trade with the EU stayed the same and our trade with other countries increased, even though the EU trade was the same it would have fallen as a percentage of our over all trade, even though in reality it hadn't fallen.
It is still a very high percentage.
You should also include all trade that is done with other countries through EU trade deals. As this trade will be lost, at least on a temporary basis, when we leave.
The best of both worlds to me is maximising trade with The EU, the other countries that The EU has trade deals with, and increasing our trade with other countries.
TM insisted that the whole of the UK be treated the same.
The current Backstop is what she agreed over a year ago.
So what she did yesterday by voting for the Brady amendment, was to vote against her own deal.
You couldn't make it up.
The Daily Mail said it was a triumph.
Yet Tim Martin, Lord Snooty, and many other Brexiteers maintain that this will lead to cheaper prices in our shops.
The EU deal with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, and 2 years to implement.
We would be starting from scratch.
If we left with no deal, we would be the only country in the world with no trade deals.
The other thing I have not heard anyone talk about, is that one of the conditions that the EU will include in a trade deal, which I know is applicable to the Canada deal, is that before doing a substantial trade deal with someone else they have to talk to The EU.
If the EU saw us as competitors would they allow a deal to be done on similar terms, or would they insist on worse terms being offered.
They would have a lot of power in these situations, representing 27 countries, as opposed to just one.
Everything you might want to know about the UK's trade with the EU
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47061780/pmqs-speaker-john-bercow-warns-chanting-mps