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  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842
    HAYSIE said:

    2017 saw the UK deliver a £ 67 billion trade deficit with the EU , whilst delivering a trade surplus of £41.1 billion with non EU countries .

    Yes.
    All the Single Market does is provide a level playing field.
    They are obviously better at selling us their stuff, than we are selling our stuff to them.
    It does provide around 3,5 million jobs for our workers, and all that entails in tax etc.
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited January 2019
    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    2017 saw the UK deliver a £ 67 billion trade deficit with the EU , whilst delivering a trade surplus of £41.1 billion with non EU countries .

    Yes.
    All the Single Market does is provide a level playing field.
    They are obviously better at selling us their stuff, than we are selling our stuff to them.
    It does provide around 3,5 million jobs for our workers, and all that entails in tax etc.
    I prefer this answer from an article from last year >>>>

    Britain’s trade performance with the rest of the EU has been woeful. According to data produced by the House of Commons library, it has run a trade deficit in goods and services combined in every year since 1999. What’s more, the deficit is getting bigger over time, doubling from £41bn to £82bn between 2012 and 2016.

    The UK’s trading performance with the rest of the world has been better. Exports and imports were broadly in balance from 1999 to 2011 but since 2012 there has been a fivefold increase in the surplus from £8bn to £39bn.


    Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk
    The economist Christopher Smallwood has been looking at what has been happening to the UK’s manufacturing trade deficit since 2005. He finds that almost all sectors are running a bigger deficit. The deficit with Germany has increased by 5% a year, with France by 7% a year and with the rest of the EU by 11% a year.

    Smallwood says the UK’s trade performance has deteriorated because the single market and the customs union are designed to suit other countries, Germany in particular, but not Britain.

    “It is not surprising that our trade deficit with the EU continues to grow, because the single market and customs union does not represent a free trade area. It is a free trade area only in goods. Manufactured goods represent Germany’s comparative advantage, whereas ours is in services.

    “We have entered into a lop-sided arrangement under which all impediments to trade have been removed from areas where our trading partners are strong but not from areas where we are strong. So obviously our overall trade deficit with them has gone on rising, and will continue to do so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu-is-woeful-and-widening
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842
    edited January 2019

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    2017 saw the UK deliver a £ 67 billion trade deficit with the EU , whilst delivering a trade surplus of £41.1 billion with non EU countries .

    Yes.
    All the Single Market does is provide a level playing field.
    They are obviously better at selling us their stuff, than we are selling our stuff to them.
    It does provide around 3,5 million jobs for our workers, and all that entails in tax etc.
    I prefer this answer from an article from last year >>>>

    Britain’s trade performance with the rest of the EU has been woeful. According to data produced by the House of Commons library, it has run a trade deficit in goods and services combined in every year since 1999. What’s more, the deficit is getting bigger over time, doubling from £41bn to £82bn between 2012 and 2016.

    The UK’s trading performance with the rest of the world has been better. Exports and imports were broadly in balance from 1999 to 2011 but since 2012 there has been a fivefold increase in the surplus from £8bn to £39bn.


    Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk
    The economist Christopher Smallwood has been looking at what has been happening to the UK’s manufacturing trade deficit since 2005. He finds that almost all sectors are running a bigger deficit. The deficit with Germany has increased by 5% a year, with France by 7% a year and with the rest of the EU by 11% a year.

    Smallwood says the UK’s trade performance has deteriorated because the single market and the customs union are designed to suit other countries, Germany in particular, but not Britain.

    “It is not surprising that our trade deficit with the EU continues to grow, because the single market and customs union does not represent a free trade area. It is a free trade area only in goods. Manufactured goods represent Germany’s comparative advantage, whereas ours is in services.

    “We have entered into a lop-sided arrangement under which all impediments to trade have been removed from areas where our trading partners are strong but not from areas where we are strong. So obviously our overall trade deficit with them has gone on rising, and will continue to do so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu-is-woeful-and-widening
    I couldn't claim to be an economics expert. The figures he quotes on deficit percentages are untrue, going on the figures you have quoted.
    Five plus seven, plus eleven, is 23%.

    The suggestion that the deficit has increased by 23% per year since 2005 is not true.
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited January 2019
    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    2017 saw the UK deliver a £ 67 billion trade deficit with the EU , whilst delivering a trade surplus of £41.1 billion with non EU countries .

    Yes.
    All the Single Market does is provide a level playing field.
    They are obviously better at selling us their stuff, than we are selling our stuff to them.
    It does provide around 3,5 million jobs for our workers, and all that entails in tax etc.
    I prefer this answer from an article from last year >>>>

    Britain’s trade performance with the rest of the EU has been woeful. According to data produced by the House of Commons library, it has run a trade deficit in goods and services combined in every year since 1999. What’s more, the deficit is getting bigger over time, doubling from £41bn to £82bn between 2012 and 2016.

    The UK’s trading performance with the rest of the world has been better. Exports and imports were broadly in balance from 1999 to 2011 but since 2012 there has been a fivefold increase in the surplus from £8bn to £39bn.


    Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk
    The economist Christopher Smallwood has been looking at what has been happening to the UK’s manufacturing trade deficit since 2005. He finds that almost all sectors are running a bigger deficit. The deficit with Germany has increased by 5% a year, with France by 7% a year and with the rest of the EU by 11% a year.

    Smallwood says the UK’s trade performance has deteriorated because the single market and the customs union are designed to suit other countries, Germany in particular, but not Britain.

    “It is not surprising that our trade deficit with the EU continues to grow, because the single market and customs union does not represent a free trade area. It is a free trade area only in goods. Manufactured goods represent Germany’s comparative advantage, whereas ours is in services.

    “We have entered into a lop-sided arrangement under which all impediments to trade have been removed from areas where our trading partners are strong but not from areas where we are strong. So obviously our overall trade deficit with them has gone on rising, and will continue to do so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu-is-woeful-and-widening
    I couldn't claim to be an economics expert. The figures he quotes on deficit percentages are untrue, going on the figures you have quoted.
    Five plus seven, plus eleven, is 25%.

    The suggestion that the deficit has increased by 25% per year since 2005 is not true.
    I'd go with the figures then as opposed to the guardian article. But bear in mind the figures are up to 2017 , whereas the guardian piece is from last year
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842

    As a brief aside , perhaps we should send John Bercow to Brussels to renegotiate.. :D

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47061780/pmqs-speaker-john-bercow-warns-chanting-mps

    He is destined to die of a heart attack one day, in that seat
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    2017 saw the UK deliver a £ 67 billion trade deficit with the EU , whilst delivering a trade surplus of £41.1 billion with non EU countries .

    Yes.
    All the Single Market does is provide a level playing field.
    They are obviously better at selling us their stuff, than we are selling our stuff to them.
    It does provide around 3,5 million jobs for our workers, and all that entails in tax etc.
    I prefer this answer from an article from last year >>>>

    Britain’s trade performance with the rest of the EU has been woeful. According to data produced by the House of Commons library, it has run a trade deficit in goods and services combined in every year since 1999. What’s more, the deficit is getting bigger over time, doubling from £41bn to £82bn between 2012 and 2016.

    The UK’s trading performance with the rest of the world has been better. Exports and imports were broadly in balance from 1999 to 2011 but since 2012 there has been a fivefold increase in the surplus from £8bn to £39bn.


    Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk
    The economist Christopher Smallwood has been looking at what has been happening to the UK’s manufacturing trade deficit since 2005. He finds that almost all sectors are running a bigger deficit. The deficit with Germany has increased by 5% a year, with France by 7% a year and with the rest of the EU by 11% a year.

    Smallwood says the UK’s trade performance has deteriorated because the single market and the customs union are designed to suit other countries, Germany in particular, but not Britain.

    “It is not surprising that our trade deficit with the EU continues to grow, because the single market and customs union does not represent a free trade area. It is a free trade area only in goods. Manufactured goods represent Germany’s comparative advantage, whereas ours is in services.

    “We have entered into a lop-sided arrangement under which all impediments to trade have been removed from areas where our trading partners are strong but not from areas where we are strong. So obviously our overall trade deficit with them has gone on rising, and will continue to do so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu-is-woeful-and-widening
    I couldn't claim to be an economics expert. The figures he quotes on deficit percentages are untrue, going on the figures you have quoted.
    Five plus seven, plus eleven, is 25%.

    The suggestion that the deficit has increased by 25% per year since 2005 is not true.
    I'd go with the figures then as opposed to the guardian article. But bear in mind the figures are up to 2017 , whereas the guardian piece is from last year
    If you start with a 35 billion deficit in 2005, and increase it by 20% per annum, it will be around 350 billion by 2017, which it clearly isn't.
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    2017 saw the UK deliver a £ 67 billion trade deficit with the EU , whilst delivering a trade surplus of £41.1 billion with non EU countries .

    Yes.
    All the Single Market does is provide a level playing field.
    They are obviously better at selling us their stuff, than we are selling our stuff to them.
    It does provide around 3,5 million jobs for our workers, and all that entails in tax etc.
    I prefer this answer from an article from last year >>>>

    Britain’s trade performance with the rest of the EU has been woeful. According to data produced by the House of Commons library, it has run a trade deficit in goods and services combined in every year since 1999. What’s more, the deficit is getting bigger over time, doubling from £41bn to £82bn between 2012 and 2016.

    The UK’s trading performance with the rest of the world has been better. Exports and imports were broadly in balance from 1999 to 2011 but since 2012 there has been a fivefold increase in the surplus from £8bn to £39bn.


    Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk
    The economist Christopher Smallwood has been looking at what has been happening to the UK’s manufacturing trade deficit since 2005. He finds that almost all sectors are running a bigger deficit. The deficit with Germany has increased by 5% a year, with France by 7% a year and with the rest of the EU by 11% a year.

    Smallwood says the UK’s trade performance has deteriorated because the single market and the customs union are designed to suit other countries, Germany in particular, but not Britain.

    “It is not surprising that our trade deficit with the EU continues to grow, because the single market and customs union does not represent a free trade area. It is a free trade area only in goods. Manufactured goods represent Germany’s comparative advantage, whereas ours is in services.

    “We have entered into a lop-sided arrangement under which all impediments to trade have been removed from areas where our trading partners are strong but not from areas where we are strong. So obviously our overall trade deficit with them has gone on rising, and will continue to do so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu-is-woeful-and-widening
    I couldn't claim to be an economics expert. The figures he quotes on deficit percentages are untrue, going on the figures you have quoted.
    Five plus seven, plus eleven, is 25%.

    The suggestion that the deficit has increased by 25% per year since 2005 is not true.
    I'd go with the figures then as opposed to the guardian article. But bear in mind the figures are up to 2017 , whereas the guardian piece is from last year
    If you start with a 35 billion deficit in 2005, and increase it by 20% per annum, it will be around 350 billion by 2017, which it clearly isn't.
    Agreed there is something amiss with his figures ...but rather than deflect from the real point , please address the points he made regarding the reasons for the deficit.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,501
    Depends whether you are using simple or compound interest...
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited January 2019
    Essexphil said:

    Depends whether you are using simple or compound interest...

    I'm afraid the extent of my practical maths use for many years was limited to working out sale percentage reductions,, cash reconciliation and end of period percentage variances against targets...the figures I quoted in the linked document on the previous page for me are interesting

    This explains the different interest calculations though : The interest, typically expressed as a percentage, can be either simple or compounded. Simple interest is based on the principal amount of a loan or deposit, while compound interest is based on the principal amount and the interest that accumulates on it in every period. Since simple interest is calculated only on the principal amount of a loan or deposit, it's easier to determine than compound interest.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842
    Essexphil said:

    Depends whether you are using simple or compound interest...

    You have to compound it to make the figures true.
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited January 2019
    I've just noticed ...although its all a bit of a red herring really to the main points of the article ...that the figures the guy quoted in the article is referring to manufacturing trade , not service.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842



    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    2017 saw the UK deliver a £ 67 billion trade deficit with the EU , whilst delivering a trade surplus of £41.1 billion with non EU countries .

    Yes.
    All the Single Market does is provide a level playing field.
    They are obviously better at selling us their stuff, than we are selling our stuff to them.
    It does provide around 3,5 million jobs for our workers, and all that entails in tax etc.
    I prefer this answer from an article from last year >>>>

    Britain’s trade performance with the rest of the EU has been woeful. According to data produced by the House of Commons library, it has run a trade deficit in goods and services combined in every year since 1999. What’s more, the deficit is getting bigger over time, doubling from £41bn to £82bn between 2012 and 2016.

    The UK’s trading performance with the rest of the world has been better. Exports and imports were broadly in balance from 1999 to 2011 but since 2012 there has been a fivefold increase in the surplus from £8bn to £39bn.


    Sign up to the daily Business Today email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter at @BusinessDesk
    The economist Christopher Smallwood has been looking at what has been happening to the UK’s manufacturing trade deficit since 2005. He finds that almost all sectors are running a bigger deficit. The deficit with Germany has increased by 5% a year, with France by 7% a year and with the rest of the EU by 11% a year.

    Smallwood says the UK’s trade performance has deteriorated because the single market and the customs union are designed to suit other countries, Germany in particular, but not Britain.

    “It is not surprising that our trade deficit with the EU continues to grow, because the single market and customs union does not represent a free trade area. It is a free trade area only in goods. Manufactured goods represent Germany’s comparative advantage, whereas ours is in services.

    “We have entered into a lop-sided arrangement under which all impediments to trade have been removed from areas where our trading partners are strong but not from areas where we are strong. So obviously our overall trade deficit with them has gone on rising, and will continue to do so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu-is-woeful-and-widening
    I couldn't claim to be an economics expert. The figures he quotes on deficit percentages are untrue, going on the figures you have quoted.
    Five plus seven, plus eleven, is 25%.

    The suggestion that the deficit has increased by 25% per year since 2005 is not true.
    I'd go with the figures then as opposed to the guardian article. But bear in mind the figures are up to 2017 , whereas the guardian piece is from last year
    If you start with a 35 billion deficit in 2005, and increase it by 20% per annum, it will be around 350 billion by 2017, which it clearly isn't.
    Agreed there is something amiss with his figures ...but rather than deflect from the real point , please address the points he made regarding the reasons for the deficit.
    I am not clever enough for that.
    The deficit has increased from 12 to 67 billion over the last 20 years. I couldn't say how much of a part inflation has played in this.

    During this period trade both ways has a little bit more than doubled.

    The Single Market gives companies in this country a huge number of people on our doorstep to sell to.

    Membership gives us beneficial trading conditions, and provides around 3.5 million jobs.

    You would think that The Government could promote business in some sectors to reduce this deficit.

    I don't think they should just take the view that the Germans of the French are better than us in some areas. The rules are the same for all members, which makes it a level playing field.

    I just disagree with the Brexiteers that put forward the view that it is an either or choice, because it clearly isn't.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842

    I've just noticed ...although its all a bit of a red herring really to the main points of the article ...that the figures the guy quoted in the article is referring to manufacturing trade , not service.

    You would still think that a Government would like to address it.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    Depends whether you are using simple or compound interest...

    You have to compound it to make the figures true.
    I am saying that because if the figure went up by the same amount it would be a lower percentage each year.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842
    Sky news is in Sunderland at 7pm, with 24 members of the public, 12 from each side. Should be interesting.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842
    edited January 2019
    HAYSIE said:

    Sky news is in Sunderland at 7pm, with 24 members of the public, 12 from each side. Should be interesting.

    The star of the show so far is the leave voting florist, that imports all her stock from Holland.

    She wants to know who she should phone in the case of her stock not arriving on 30th March through border delays, and her shop is shut.

    She was applauding the man who suggested we should crash out.

    Still thinks it was right to vote leave.

    You couldn't make it up.
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited January 2019
    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Sky news is in Sunderland at 7pm, with 24 members of the public, 12 from each side. Should be interesting.

    The star of the show so far is the leave voting florist, that imports all her stock from Holland.

    She wants to know who she should phone in the case of her stock not arriving on 30th March through border delays, and her shop is shut.

    She was applauding the man who suggested we should crash out.

    Still thinks it was right to vote leave.

    You couldn't make it up.
    Didn't watch it , but it's no real surprise you didnt pick out a remainer :/
    Cherry picked extreme edges of both sides for better tv , no doubt .
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    An article by professor David Blake : Ten reasons that justify the UK’s decision to leave the European Union

    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/ten-reasons-that-justify-the-uks-decision-to-leave-the-european-union/
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842

    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Sky news is in Sunderland at 7pm, with 24 members of the public, 12 from each side. Should be interesting.

    The star of the show so far is the leave voting florist, that imports all her stock from Holland.

    She wants to know who she should phone in the case of her stock not arriving on 30th March through border delays, and her shop is shut.

    She was applauding the man who suggested we should crash out.

    Still thinks it was right to vote leave.

    You couldn't make it up.
    Didn't watch it , but it's no real surprise you didnt pick out a remainer :/
    Cherry picked extreme edges of both sides for better tv , no doubt .
    I think it is really difficult to argue from a leave point of view.
    A couple of them supported no deal, and suggested we would do well because we are Great Britain. They were unable to back this up.
    One of them suggested that Nissan wouldn't consider moving the factory to Europe, because the workers in Sunderland are good. He didn't think that the imposition of tariffs would make a difference, and favoured no deal. Nissan employ 7,000 there, and they are considered by most people as good jobs.
    The arguments for remaining are fairly obvious, and difficult to oppose with facts.
    I watched another piece on Sky News earlier on Brexit, from Southampton. They interviewed 2 remainers, and 2 leavers. One of the leavers dominated the interview, and she didn't want anyone else to get a word in.
    She went off on a rant about no deal and The WTO. When it was finished they cut to the Brexit reporter in Brussels, whose first comment was "what she just said about The WTO is completely untrue"

    Many prominent Brexiteers use lies to support their arguments.

    Lies like leaving with no deal and trading on WTO rules will result in cheaper prices in our shops.

    How could the imposition of tariffs possibly result in cheaper prices.

    Some or all of the tariffs could be removed in the future, by agreeing free trade deals, but each trade deal will take years to agree, and implement.

    So no deal, and WTO, will mean more expensive prices in our shops for years to come.

    If we have no tariffs, it makes a complete nonsense of our future trade policy.


    If you look at Nissan, Sunderland.

    They employ around 7,000.

    A further 20,000 jobs in their supply chain are dependant on them.

    They export almost 60% of their cars to The EU.

    No deal means tariffs on cars of 10%.

    In addition to this they would face a tariff on imported components of 4.5%.

    It is really hard to argue that the increased costs of components, and a 10% increase on their prices will not make them less competitive against similar models in Europe.

    It is also difficult to argue that these circumstances wouldn't prompt Nissan to consider relocating to Europe at some point.

    The loss of 27,000 jobs in Sunderland would be catastrophic. Yet many of the residents seem oblivious.



    Nissan demands Brexit compensation deal before making UK investment

    The site in Sunderland is Nissan’s biggest factory in Europe. It employs almost 7,000 people and supports a further 20,000 in the local supply chain.

    If Britain failed to conclude a free trade deal with the rest of the EU and was forced to fall back on basic World Trade Organisation rules, British car exporters could face tariffs of up to 10 per cent.
    Some 57 per cent of the 1.6 million cars made in Britain are purchased by buyers in the rest of the EU. The next largest market is the US (12 per cent), followed by China (7 per cent).




    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-nissan-compensation-deal-uk-investment-a7339211.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 34,842

    An article by professor David Blake : Ten reasons that justify the UK’s decision to leave the European Union

    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/ten-reasons-that-justify-the-uks-decision-to-leave-the-european-union/

    I find it amazing how those in the press bias their view.
    I haven't got through the first paragraph .
    He claims that The EU refused to negotiate trade until after Brexit.
    Whereas the truth is,
    The talks were sequenced.
    We agreed to the sequencing.
    The Withdrawal Agreement first.
    This only included 3 things. Citizens rights. Divorce bill. Irish Border.
    We would then move on to trade.
    The PM said we would complete all negotiations within the 2 year Article 50 period, and have a Meaningful Vote on the deal prior to March 2019.

    We don't seem to have noticed that The Meaningful Vote is now on The Withdrawal Agreement, rather than the deal.

    TM is now trying to renegotiate The Backstop, which she agreed to in December 2017.

    We are supposed to be voting on a deal by now.

    The fact that if she can get The Withdrawal Agreement through, we will leave without knowing what deal we will end up with.

    Imagine that pitch, during the referendum campaign, if you vote to leave, we will tell you what deal we are going to get, years after we leave.

    This guy blames The EU.

    This is absolute nonsense.

    None of his benefits actually improve the lives of a leave voter, after we leave.

    However the economic damage caused to the economy will.
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