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Brexit

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  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    edited March 2019
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,739
    People who have seen my occasional forays into this matter will know that I am, at heart, a Remainer. I do not think it is in our best interests to leave the economic trading bloc to which we have become increasingly dependant upon over the last 46 years. In particular, we seem to have absolutely no clue as to what to do next-we are, in economic terms, cutting our links to our major supplier and/or scrapping preferential trade terms with nothing to replace it.

    We are an island. We have an island mentality. Unlike Mainland Europe or Scandinavia, we do not have natural borders with other countries (except in Northern Ireland, and that only to a country that we regard as very similar to us). We have a distrust of Europe based on little more than an island's traditional distrust of outsiders, and wars that were fought a long time ago.

    I really wish that Cameron had grown a spine. A decent man, but lacked true leadership ability. If he had campaigned like you, Haysie, perhaps we wouldn't be where we are. But that does not mean to say that we should ignore where we actually are now.

    1. There has been a "People's Vote." It was in 2016. We lost. Get over it.

    2. The people were promised a "Final Say" in 2016. They were promised that Government/Parliament would abide by the outcome. There was a vote in 1975. People campaigned for a new vote for 41 years before the Conservatives caved in to their extremist wing. Anyone think Leavers would just give up now?

    3. "Democracy that cannot change its mind, ceases to be a democracy" slogan. This really annoys me. Of course it can change its mind. It took 41 years to happen, but the country (rightly or wrongly) changed its mind. Democracy ceases to be a democracy when people vote for a change, whereupon the Government/Parliament refuses to abide by the result (despite promises) and insists that the result was "wrong" and needs to be done again. We can argue about how we should leave, but the country undeniably voted to leave.

    4. The ridiculous argument that we understand all the issues now. Nonsense. It is now clear that Remain failed to put some of its arguments properly. But people still do not grasp the issues properly, and never will. It is a matter that is too complex for the majority of people to come to a considered opinion, as opposed to some of the knee-jerk single issue reasons given by many people on BOTH sides of the debate. That is why Governments should govern, not the majority of people. Or we would have a vote to abolish Income Tax tomorrow.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    It is likely that it will take a further 5 years for us to leave.

    That means that it will be 8 years from the referendum,

    During this time a number of things will happen that will affect the make up of the electorate.

    Firstly, millions of remain voting youngsters that were too young to vote in the referendum will have come of age.

    Secondly, millions of leave voting oldies will have died.

    Thirdly, 3.5 million EU migrants that weren't allowed to vote in the referendum, will be qualified to vote.

    So by the time we leave, the country will have an overwhelming majority in favour of remaining.

    Sounds like a good plan.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Essexphil said:

    People who have seen my occasional forays into this matter will know that I am, at heart, a Remainer. I do not think it is in our best interests to leave the economic trading bloc to which we have become increasingly dependant upon over the last 46 years. In particular, we seem to have absolutely no clue as to what to do next-we are, in economic terms, cutting our links to our major supplier and/or scrapping preferential trade terms with nothing to replace it.

    We are an island. We have an island mentality. Unlike Mainland Europe or Scandinavia, we do not have natural borders with other countries (except in Northern Ireland, and that only to a country that we regard as very similar to us). We have a distrust of Europe based on little more than an island's traditional distrust of outsiders, and wars that were fought a long time ago.

    I really wish that Cameron had grown a spine. A decent man, but lacked true leadership ability. If he had campaigned like you, Haysie, perhaps we wouldn't be where we are. But that does not mean to say that we should ignore where we actually are now.

    1. There has been a "People's Vote." It was in 2016. We lost. Get over it.

    2. The people were promised a "Final Say" in 2016. They were promised that Government/Parliament would abide by the outcome. There was a vote in 1975. People campaigned for a new vote for 41 years before the Conservatives caved in to their extremist wing. Anyone think Leavers would just give up now?

    3. "Democracy that cannot change its mind, ceases to be a democracy" slogan. This really annoys me. Of course it can change its mind. It took 41 years to happen, but the country (rightly or wrongly) changed its mind. Democracy ceases to be a democracy when people vote for a change, whereupon the Government/Parliament refuses to abide by the result (despite promises) and insists that the result was "wrong" and needs to be done again. We can argue about how we should leave, but the country undeniably voted to leave.

    4. The ridiculous argument that we understand all the issues now. Nonsense. It is now clear that Remain failed to put some of its arguments properly. But people still do not grasp the issues properly, and never will. It is a matter that is too complex for the majority of people to come to a considered opinion, as opposed to some of the knee-jerk single issue reasons given by many people on BOTH sides of the debate. That is why Governments should govern, not the majority of people. Or we would have a vote to abolish Income Tax tomorrow.

    I agree with much of what you say.
    Where we part company is that I think you are ignoring the fact that it may well come down to a choice.
    I have said a number of times that although I think that a second referendum may not be the ideal solution, it is at least a solution.
    It is impossible to see where we will end up, and at this stage this is ridiculous.
    When the PM requested a short extension, I honestly believe that she wished to put us in a disastrous position for her own ends.
    If the EU had just granted an extension until the end of June, as she requested, we would have been left in an impossible position.
    We wouldn't have participated in the EU elections.
    So at the end of June if she hadn't got her deal through, we would have left with no deal, and nowhere to go.
    A catastrophe.
    What I don't think you take into account are the choices we may be faced with.
    We will have to take part in the EU elections, or forego a long extension.
    There is no evidence of a majority in Parliament for anything, other than no deal.
    So where do we go.
    You can argue that revoking Article 50 is a horrible solution.
    That's fair enough in an ideal world.
    In a couple of weeks time we could easily be faced with a choice of leaving with no deal, or revoking article 50.
    Under those circumstances revoking article 50, wouldn't be so horrible.
    In an ideal world Parliament should sort it out, in the real world it doesn't seem at all likely anytime soon.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,739
    In an ideal world, I would agree with you. But that is not the world we live in.

    You cannot prejudge any 3rd referendum by expressly overturning the vote we already have by revoking Article 50 PRIOR to any vote. That is more than a "horrible solution"-it would be the most undemocratic thing that has EVER happened in this country. The Government would be rigging the outcome before the vote, and expressly denying what the people have already voted for.

    The alternative you want takes too long. We would have 2 choices. To revoke Art 50 in express contradiction of what the public has voted for. Which will lead to the biggest trouble in this country in the last 75 years. Or leave without a deal while everyone argues on the "Meaningful Vote" wording for years, followed by AT LEAST 6 months to organise the vote.

    The main reason we are faced with choices is because BOTH the ERG AND Remainers are clearly unable to compromise. A plague on both their houses.
  • tai-gartai-gar Member Posts: 2,683
    Sorry but revoking Article 50 means nothing except we are NOT READY to leave the EU with an acceptable deal "at the moment".

    Nothing to stop us from continuing negotiations to establish exactly what leaving means to us before finally leaving at some later date.

    Our intention to leave would still remain in accordance with the referendum.

    The ultimate act of leaving would of course be dependent on achieving the right terms.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Essexphil said:

    In an ideal world, I would agree with you. But that is not the world we live in.

    You cannot prejudge any 3rd referendum by expressly overturning the vote we already have by revoking Article 50 PRIOR to any vote. That is more than a "horrible solution"-it would be the most undemocratic thing that has EVER happened in this country. The Government would be rigging the outcome before the vote, and expressly denying what the people have already voted for.

    The alternative you want takes too long. We would have 2 choices. To revoke Art 50 in express contradiction of what the public has voted for. Which will lead to the biggest trouble in this country in the last 75 years. Or leave without a deal while everyone argues on the "Meaningful Vote" wording for years, followed by AT LEAST 6 months to organise the vote.

    The main reason we are faced with choices is because BOTH the ERG AND Remainers are clearly unable to compromise. A plague on both their houses.

    Plagues aren't solutions.

    Tom Watson said yesterday that he would vote for the PMs deal if there was a referendum to confirm it.

    This is another solution which may happen.

    The Labour Party may support an amendment on this next week.

    The only deal currently on the table has been described as the worst of all worlds, or the least worst solution.

    Is that the best our democratic country can do.

    To avoid the worst results, we will have to take part in the EU elections, may have to have a referendum, or revoke article 50.

    I think too many people are living in a dream world, expecting a miracle solution, and assuming the country will suddenly go back to normal.

    The country is divided and will remain that way for years to come, whatever the outcome.

    The Labour Partys proposed solutions seem to be a referendum, or a Norway style deal or both.

    Leavers are against both these solutions, don't consider Norway as leaving, wont wear freedom of movement, and wont countenance a second referendum. Remainers will think Norway is all but staying in, so it is better to remain.

    The Tories can only come up with the worst of all worlds, which doesn't seem able to get through Parliament.

    All the other opposition parties favour a second referendum.

    So much for Parliamentary democracy.

    Few people will feel they got what they voted for.

    I would still prefer revoking article 50, than no deal.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    tai-gar said:

    Sorry but revoking Article 50 means nothing except we are NOT READY to leave the EU with an acceptable deal "at the moment".

    Nothing to stop us from continuing negotiations to establish exactly what leaving means to us before finally leaving at some later date.

    Our intention to leave would still remain in accordance with the referendum.

    The ultimate act of leaving would of course be dependent on achieving the right terms.

    I think it goes further than not ready, we clearly haven't got a clue.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Essexphil said:

    In an ideal world, I would agree with you. But that is not the world we live in.

    You cannot prejudge any 3rd referendum by expressly overturning the vote we already have by revoking Article 50 PRIOR to any vote. That is more than a "horrible solution"-it would be the most undemocratic thing that has EVER happened in this country. The Government would be rigging the outcome before the vote, and expressly denying what the people have already voted for.

    The alternative you want takes too long. We would have 2 choices. To revoke Art 50 in express contradiction of what the public has voted for. Which will lead to the biggest trouble in this country in the last 75 years. Or leave without a deal while everyone argues on the "Meaningful Vote" wording for years, followed by AT LEAST 6 months to organise the vote.

    The main reason we are faced with choices is because BOTH the ERG AND Remainers are clearly unable to compromise. A plague on both their houses.

    You left out the DUP, in respect of plagues.
    Their position is incredible.
    All the stuff they are objecting to in the backstop, happens anyway if there is no deal.
    So by sabotaging the deal, they may end up in the same boat anyway.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Essexphil said:

    People who have seen my occasional forays into this matter will know that I am, at heart, a Remainer. I do not think it is in our best interests to leave the economic trading bloc to which we have become increasingly dependant upon over the last 46 years. In particular, we seem to have absolutely no clue as to what to do next-we are, in economic terms, cutting our links to our major supplier and/or scrapping preferential trade terms with nothing to replace it.

    We are an island. We have an island mentality. Unlike Mainland Europe or Scandinavia, we do not have natural borders with other countries (except in Northern Ireland, and that only to a country that we regard as very similar to us). We have a distrust of Europe based on little more than an island's traditional distrust of outsiders, and wars that were fought a long time ago.

    I really wish that Cameron had grown a spine. A decent man, but lacked true leadership ability. If he had campaigned like you, Haysie, perhaps we wouldn't be where we are. But that does not mean to say that we should ignore where we actually are now.

    1. There has been a "People's Vote." It was in 2016. We lost. Get over it.

    2. The people were promised a "Final Say" in 2016. They were promised that Government/Parliament would abide by the outcome. There was a vote in 1975. People campaigned for a new vote for 41 years before the Conservatives caved in to their extremist wing. Anyone think Leavers would just give up now?

    3. "Democracy that cannot change its mind, ceases to be a democracy" slogan. This really annoys me. Of course it can change its mind. It took 41 years to happen, but the country (rightly or wrongly) changed its mind. Democracy ceases to be a democracy when people vote for a change, whereupon the Government/Parliament refuses to abide by the result (despite promises) and insists that the result was "wrong" and needs to be done again. We can argue about how we should leave, but the country undeniably voted to leave.

    4. The ridiculous argument that we understand all the issues now. Nonsense. It is now clear that Remain failed to put some of its arguments properly. But people still do not grasp the issues properly, and never will. It is a matter that is too complex for the majority of people to come to a considered opinion, as opposed to some of the knee-jerk single issue reasons given by many people on BOTH sides of the debate. That is why Governments should govern, not the majority of people. Or we would have a vote to abolish Income Tax tomorrow.

    So what do you think should happen?
    What do you think will happen?
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Petition
    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.
    The government repeatedly claims exiting the EU is 'the will of the people'. We need to put a stop to this claim by proving the strength of public support now, for remaining in the EU. A People's Vote may not happen - so vote now.
    Sign this petition
    5,008,708 signatures
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    The Sun calls on Theresa May to say she will resign, if such a move will persuade MPs to approve her Brexit deal in a third Commons vote this week.
    Under the headline "Time's up Theresa", the paper says it is making the suggestion with regret, having supported Mrs May since before she was prime minister.
    It argues that the agreement has such a slim chance of getting through, the prime minister cannot risk it being rejected again.
    Boris Johnson launches his latest attack on the government's approach to Brexit in the Daily Telegraph.
    The former foreign secretary's views are spelled out in a series of headlines, superimposed onto a photo of him driving away from Chequers yesterday, that takes up half the front page.
    "We have blinked. We have baulked. We have bottled it completely. It is time for the PM to channel the spirit of Moses in Exodus, and say to the pharaoh in Brussels: Let my people go."
    In its opinion column, the Daily Mail quotes that famous line from Oscar Wilde's poem, The Ballad of Reading Gaol: "each man kills the thing he loves".
    It goes on to suggest that "Tory Eurosceptics might do well to note these words", advising them to throw their weight behind Mrs May's deal, or risk losing Brexit entirely.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-47688601
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    UK Government and Parliament
    Petition
    Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.
    The government repeatedly claims exiting the EU is 'the will of the people'. We need to put a stop to this claim by proving the strength of public support now, for remaining in the EU. A People's Vote may not happen - so vote now.
    Sign this petition
    5,339,378 signatures
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Brexit stitch-up: Philip Hammond says second Brexit vote ‘DESERVES to be considered'
    A SECOND referendum on Brexit is a “perfectly coherent” option and “deserves to be considered” alongside other proposals, claimed Chancellor Philip Hammond on Sunday.





    Philip Hammond argued a second Brexit referendum has not been ruled out because it is a “perfectly coherent” proposition. Despite acknowledging many MPs will be “strongly opposed”, the Chancellor claimed it “deserves to be considered”. Sky News presenter Sophy Ridge asked: “I notice that you didn’t take the second referendum off the table. Is it something that you could accept for example if the Prime Minister’s deal goes through parliament on the guarantee that it will then be put to a public vote?”

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1104514/brexit-news-latest-philip-hammond-second-referendum-vote-deal-article-50-extension-uk-eu
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    WEEK OF RECKONING: May to unveil CRUNCH votes including no deal and CANCELLING Brexit
    THERESA MAY is set to unveil her plans to hold a series of indicative votes this week, including a vote on no deal, a second referendum and cancelling Brexit.




    The Prime Minister has seen her leadership put under intense scrutiny after her Brexit deal was twice rejected by Parliament. According to the Telegraph, she has invited ministers to review seven documents which outline her plans moving forward. These include voting for the Prime Minister’s deal, opting for a no deal, a second referendum and revoking Article 50, as well as plans on the customs union and single market.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1104766/Brexit-news-latest-theresa-may-indicative-vote-parliament-no-deal-eu-uk-article-50
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Petition to cancel Brexit hits 5m signatures after 'one million' people marched along to AC/DC's Highway to **** at protest in London
    The online petition demanding that the Government revoke Article 50 is now the most popular on record
    Petition website has crashed repeatedly as momentum gathers behind Brexit revolt amid Government chaos
    Yesterday organisers of the Put it to the People march claimed a million people joined the protest in London





    The petition to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit has hit five million signatures, a day after a reported million people marched through London to demand a new referendum.
    The online movement is now the most popular petition on record as the revolt against Brexit gains momentum amid the chaos of Theresa May's EU negotiations.
    By Sunday afternoon it had more than 5,010,000 signatures, surpassing a 2016 petition calling for a second vote, and the website has already crashed repeatedly.
    Mrs May has already rejected the petition, which warns that a second referendum or People's Vote may never happen and calls on Remainers to 'prove the strength of public support' for cancelling Brexit.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6844065/Petition-cancel-Brexit-closes-5m-signatures.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Tory coup fails to materialise as Theresa May limps on
    While there are ministers who believe PM should go, most agree it is not the right time



    If it was a coup, it didn’t last long. Cameras arrived early on Sunday morning outside the houses of David Lidington, the prime minister’s de facto deputy, and Michael Gove, the environment secretary, after two Sunday newspapers reported that one or the other could take over as caretaker prime minister from Theresa May in an emergency intervention.
    Discontent with the prime minister across large parts of the cabinet is real as the seemingly never ending Brexit impasse persists. But, on this occasion, Downing Street had little time even to get alarmed ahead of Monday’s meeting of cabinet.
    Cabinet minister after cabinet minister appeared on television to denounce the idea of a plot, starting with the chancellor, Philip Hammond shortly after 9am. Talk of a coup was “frankly self-indulgent at this time”, an impassive Hammond said, despite being named as a Lidington supporter in the Sunday Times.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/24/tory-coup-fails-materialise-theresa-may-limps-on
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Tory Islamophobia row: 15 suspended councillors quietly reinstated
    Guardian investigation finds suspensions lifted despite apparent Islamophobia or racism
    Tory members’ online comments deepen Islamophobia row


    Cllr Andrew Bowles was readmitted to the party after a 13-day suspension for retweeting a post describing the far-right leader Tommy Robinson as a patriot. Photograph: KMG/SWNS


    More than a dozen Conservative councillors who were suspended over posting Islamophobic or racist content online – with some describing Saudis as “sand peasants” and sharing material comparing Asian people to dogs – have had their membership quietly reinstated, a Guardian investigation has found.
    The chairman of the Conservative Muslim Forum, Mohammed Amin, called on the party to publish a set of formal disciplinary processes after the Guardian found 15 examples of politicians who posted content that was deemed objectionable.
    The findings come amid growing concerns over the Conservative party’s attitude to reports of Islamophobia in a febrile wider climate, with the number of hate crimes against Muslims reported to have risen by 593% in the week after the attack on two New Zealand mosques.


    The Labour mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, told the Observer on Sunday that he had been repeatedly subjected to anti-Muslim abuse from the Tory party’s members and supporters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/24/tory-islamophobia-row-15-suspended-councillors-quietly-reinstated

  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,718
    Brexit Q&A: how likely are we to crash out of the EU with no deal?
    Possible scenarios range from no deal to May’s deal, Norway plus, second referendum and May’s resignation





    What about a second referendum? Could Saturday’s march and petition make any difference?
    A second referendum is another option MPs would be expected to consider in the short period available after May’s deal is defeated next week.
    It would necessitate a longer delay to Brexit beyond 12 April so that a poll could be held.
    The UK would also then need to participate in May’s European elections – something May has insisted would be unacceptable.
    Parliament would have to decide what options would be on the ballot paper. Labour has insisted it will only back a referendum with a “credible” leave option available, so that its leave voters can support Brexit – May’s deal would not appear to fit the bill if it has been repeatedly and overwhelmingly defeated in parliament.
    However, any indicative votes process could involve allowing MPs free votes, so the frontbench’s position might prove less important.
    The petition calls for article 50 to be revoked altogether, an option that has little support in parliament – unless it appeared to be the only way to stop a no-deal Brexit, which would not be the case if the government opened the door to finding alternatives.
    But Saturday’s march will send a strong message to MPs when they are weighing up the options in the coming days.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/brexit-qa-how-likely-are-we-to-crash-out-of-the-eu-with-no-deal
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