Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit plan ‘will trigger early election’ Top Tories say attempt to appease hardliners means coalition of support for his leadership bid will not survive the autumn
Senior Tories believe that if Boris Johnson gets to Downing Street, he’ll provoke an election by pursuing a no-deal Brexit
Adding Boris Johnson to Brexit is pouring fuel on to the fire
As investment nears collapse, the last thing Britain needs is a PM so contemptuous of business and so fiscally heedless
And what a mess it is! There is economic and social chaos all around us. To take a specific example: during those three years, foreign direct investment in the UK has fallen by 30%, while it has increased by 43% in the other 27 members of the EU. And domestically generated investment – the seed corn of productivity and decent jobs – is also near collapse. The Bank of England estimates that, thanks to the uncertainty associated with Brexit, the level of investment in the economy is anything between 6% and 14% lower than it would have been.
Our current position, as EU members is that we conduct trade on a tariff free, frictionless basis with the other members. The EU also has in place trade deals with around 70 countries, that we access through our membership.
In addition we are able to trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms, which involves tariffs.
A WTO Brexit would mean trading with the whole world on WTO terms. How could this be a plan?
If we did this we would be the only country in the world in this position.
Tim Martin the Wetherspoons resident Brexit genius has mentioned many times that on leaving the EU we could negotiate a trade deal with New Zealand and remove the current tariffs. He seems to see this as a massive benefit.
Just to get this into perspective this would mean a saving of 13p per litre by removing the tariff, He claims that this would be a benefit to the UK consumer, but would UK businesses really pass this saving on to the consumer, or just make additional profits?
If they did pass the saving on, would the consumer notice that they had saved around 2p per glass?
When you take into account that there is already a charge of £3 per litre excise duty, and 20% vat, which wouldnt change, his whole argument becomes nonsense.
In addition to this, if our proposed trade deal with New Zealand included tariff free lamb, then our sheep farmers go out of business. Hardly a sensible plan.
Fishing has come up as a topic on this thread a number of times.
Always brought up by Brexit supporters pointing out that leaving the common fisheries means we disallow EU vessels from fishing in our waters, and always failing to acknowledge that we also fish in their waters.
Well I listened to a debate the other night where it was pointed out that one of our fleets sells 80% of its catch to France.
The tariffs on fish post a WTO Brexit would be 20%
So two things happen, firstly our fish become less competitively priced because of the tariff, and secondly the French gain more capacity through our inability to fish in their waters. So they can catch the fish that we would usually catch.
You would have to suspect that French businesses, in the longer term would increase their own capacity, and seek to source the same fish elsewhere in Europe to avoid the tariffs. Meaning we lose a market.
Being able to catch more fish, but being unable to sell them is not necessarily progress.
Tariffs undoubtedly increase costs to consumers.
There is an argument put forward by Farage, the ERG, and others that we could remove all tariffs, and therefore reduce prices for consumers.
Tariffs are usually removed by negotiating free trade deals, which normally take years to finalise.
One advantage of tariffs is that they can be used to protect particular industries. So by removing tariffs we would put some industries at risk.
The removal of all tariffs could therefore protect consumers, but lose jobs.
Advantages are clearly gained by countries where poor working conditions, and low wages are the norm.
For example it is much cheaper to make a pair of trousers in Bangladesh, than the UK.
If we just removed tariffs full stop, WTO rules don't allow differentiation, so we would have to remove the same tariffs, for every country.
If we did this there would be no obligation for other countries to reciprocate.
If we didn't our prices have to increase.
The majority of UK based foreign manufacturers have set up in the UK, to access the EU market, and avoid tariffs.
What happens when circumstances change?
So to recap, WTO means tariffs, tariffs mean higher prices, trade deals take years, just removing tariffs puts our trade at a disadvantage, some industries and jobs at risk.
More wool is being pulled over the eyes of the general public than during the referendum campaign.
To swap what we have now for a WTO Brexit seems idiotic?
There are rumours circulating to the effect that Boris has promised the job of Chancellor to at least 4 different people.
Boris Johnson’s secret deal with Brexit Tories revealed –but Farage warns he won't deliver A POWERFUL group of Brexiteer MPs have backed Boris Johnson as new Tory leader – so long as he sticks to their terms.
But the price for their support is ditching Theresa May’s deal and going for a no-deal EU exit, they have warned him. Boris Johnson has also been told in clear terms in their ultimatum that he and the Tory party will be finished if he fails to get Britain out by October 31. The Brexiteer MPs in the European Research Group (ERG) will quit and join Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party – sparking a seismic change in British politics. Writing in the Sunday Express, Mr Farage warns he fears the former London Mayor “will not deliver on his promises”. And he added “Tory defectors would be welcome in the Brexit Party.” Additional demands from the ERG include giving Mr Farage and senior Brexit Party members seats in the House of Lords, as well as welcoming them into the Conservatives after Brexit.
The senior ERG member said: “He [Boris] has to take us out with a managed no-deal, no messing around with the Northern Ireland border, GATT agreements exchanged (to allow free trade to continue while a deal is negotiated), and to then start negotiating a free trade agreement. “If the EU don’t play ball we cut corporation tax, we give bungs to farming and the car industry and we compete hard.” The senior ERG member also made it clear that Mr Johnson has been told he must appoint Leave supporters to the big roles in government and the party.
Gavin Williamson is accused of 'bully-boy' campaign to drive Boris Johnson into No 10 by 'threatening' fellow MPs to force them to back him Former Tory Chief Whip faced claims he used ‘threats’ against fellow MPs Telling former Ministers they would not return to office unless they backed Boris Mr Williamson also accused of scaring colleagues with dire polling figures
Nelson's Column: Boris Johnson is the bumbling buffoon with a nasty streak It seems that nothing can stop Boris Johnson becoming PM. But Sunday Mirror Political Editor Nigel Nelson says he won't be PM for long.
Many horrified Tory MPs have woken up to the inevitability of the former Foreign Secretary and present one Jeremy Hunt being the final two candidates party members choose from. And No10 is resigned to the grassroots voting Johnson having forgiven Alexander Boris de Pfeffel for his silly name and the nasty stuff we know about him. Such as casual racism - “piccaninnies”, “water-melon smiles”, mocking Muslim women as letterboxes. Or casual homophobia - “tank-topped bum boys”. Or fibbing about casual sex.
Though we journos won’t forget he was taped discussing having one of us beaten up during the kind of conversation not uncommon in 1930’s Germany.
At hustings on Monday he claimed to have come from 16 points behind to beat Ken Livingstone to London Mayor. By Wednesday that was 17 points. This was to parade his credentials for winning elections against the odds. Yet a check of the polls at the time - YouGov, ComRes, BMRB - reveals he was consistently ahead. Oh, that’s just Boris, say fans. Never lets facts stand in the way of a good story. Part of his incorrigible charm. But he isn’t a cheeky schoolboy. He’s probably next PM. Would they be so indulgent if he bombed Switzerland instead of Syria simply because both countries begin with an S? Boris Johnson is the most unsuitable prime minister in all my time in politics - and I’ve met the last 10 of them.
Sure, he has a good line in patter, an ability to get laughs, and a commanding TV presence. But these qualities make for a stand-up comedian not a statesman. And the British people deserve better from the holder of the nation’s top office than a talent for topping the bill at the Apollo.
Johnson hints airily at suspending Parliament to get a No Deal Brexit. Try that, pal, and one of two things will happen. A General Election which sweeps him from power. Or rebel Tory and Labour MPs carrying out their so far only whispered threat to vaporise him by forming their own Government of National Unity. Stranger things happen. Chuka Umunna has been in three parties this year . So far.
Our current position, as EU members is that we conduct trade on a tariff free, frictionless basis with the other members. The EU also has in place trade deals with around 70 countries, that we access through our membership.
In addition we are able to trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms, which involves tariffs.
A WTO Brexit would mean trading with the whole world on WTO terms. How could this be a plan?
If we did this we would be the only country in the world in this position.
Tim Martin the Wetherspoons resident Brexit genius has mentioned many times that on leaving the EU we could negotiate a trade deal with New Zealand and remove the current tariffs. He seems to see this as a massive benefit.
Just to get this into perspective this would mean a saving of 13p per litre by removing the tariff, He claims that this would be a benefit to the UK consumer, but would UK businesses really pass this saving on to the consumer, or just make additional profits?
If they did pass the saving on, would the consumer notice that they had saved around 2p per glass?
When you take into account that there is already a charge of £3 per litre excise duty, and 20% vat, which wouldnt change, his whole argument becomes nonsense.
In addition to this, if our proposed trade deal with New Zealand included tariff free lamb, then our sheep farmers go out of business. Hardly a sensible plan.
Fishing has come up as a topic on this thread a number of times.
Always brought up by Brexit supporters pointing out that leaving the common fisheries means we disallow EU vessels from fishing in our waters, and always failing to acknowledge that we also fish in their waters.
Well I listened to a debate the other night where it was pointed out that one of our fleets sells 80% of its catch to France.
The tariffs on fish post a WTO Brexit would be 20%
So two things happen, firstly our fish become less competitively priced because of the tariff, and secondly the French gain more capacity through our inability to fish in their waters. So they can catch the fish that we would usually catch.
You would have to suspect that French businesses, in the longer term would increase their own capacity, and seek to source the same fish elsewhere in Europe to avoid the tariffs. Meaning we lose a market.
Being able to catch more fish, but being unable to sell them is not necessarily progress.
Tariffs undoubtedly increase costs to consumers.
There is an argument put forward by Farage, the ERG, and others that we could remove all tariffs, and therefore reduce prices for consumers.
Tariffs are usually removed by negotiating free trade deals, which normally take years to finalise.
One advantage of tariffs is that they can be used to protect particular industries. So by removing tariffs we would put some industries at risk.
The removal of all tariffs could therefore protect consumers, but lose jobs.
Advantages are clearly gained by countries where poor working conditions, and low wages are the norm.
For example it is much cheaper to make a pair of trousers in Bangladesh, than the UK.
If we just removed tariffs full stop, WTO rules don't allow differentiation, so we would have to remove the same tariffs, for every country.
If we did this there would be no obligation for other countries to reciprocate.
If we didn't our prices have to increase.
The majority of UK based foreign manufacturers have set up in the UK, to access the EU market, and avoid tariffs.
What happens when circumstances change?
So to recap, WTO means tariffs, tariffs mean higher prices, trade deals take years, just removing tariffs puts our trade at a disadvantage, some industries and jobs at risk.
More wool is being pulled over the eyes of the general public than during the referendum campaign.
To swap what we have now for a WTO Brexit seems idiotic?
Leave.EU T-shirts made in Bangladesh by workers paid just 39p per hour EXCLUSIVE: The £20 tees, bankrolled by tycoon Aaron Banks, are not as British as they may seem
The controversial t-shirts certainly aren't British made
Campaigners funding Nigel Farage are selling £20 Leave.EU T-shirts made by workers in Bangladesh paid just 39p an hour. The T-shirts are sold by the Leave.EU campaign, which boasts it is “backing Britain” and wants more jobs here.
Many of the papers give their assessment of the televised debate involving five of the contenders for the Conservative leadership. "Rivals gang up to stop Boris", is the headline in The Daily Express. The paper says Boris Johnson faced a string of attacks from his rivals as they intensified their efforts to halt his advance on Downing Street. The Times says the real winner of Sunday night's debate was not the former foreign secretary but Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. It says each of the candidates' proposals for delivering Brexit have well-rehearsed flaws which suggests a general election before 2022 is highly likely. The paper gives each candidates marks out of 10, with Michael Gove and Rory Stewart scoring joint highest on eight, and Sajid Javid lowest on six. The Guardian says that while Brexit produced some of the strongest clashes of the debate, the candidates also sought to set out their vision for Britain by making a series of promises on literacy, social care and student debt. It says Mr Johnson's decision to stay away made Dominic Raab what it calls the "no deal" villain, enabling the other four candidates to gang up on him.
The sketch writer John Crace says Mr Johnson's decision to send along a lectern in his place proved to be an inspired move as it answered the questions much more directly and honestly than he ever would. The Daily Telegraph leads with a promise by Mr Johnson to deliver super-fast broadband for the whole of the UK by 2025 - eight years sooner than the government's current plans. As regards the debate, the paper says Mr Johnson was right to sit it out because of the way the other contenders had been allowed to gang up on Mr Raab, the only other "hard" Brexiteer. It claims analysis showed that Mr Raab was given the least amount of time to answer - a third less than Mr Gove.
As Conservative MPs prepare to vote in the second round of their party's leadership contest, many papers focus on the prospects of one of the six contenders. Rory Stewart could knock out Sajid Javid or Dominic Raab, the Sun suggests. According to the i, he's emerging as a "serious threat" in the race. The paper says Mr Stewart has warned that he has 100 Tory MPs ready to block Boris Johnson's no-deal Brexit stance. The Daily Telegraph raises the question of whether the international development secretary was once a spy for MI6. Meanwhile, the Times suggests rival Michael Gove is trying to put off potential Stewart supporters by urging MPs to pick two Brexiteers for the final round, so as not to "polarise" the Conservative Party
After several Tory leadership hopefuls admitted having once taken drugs, the Financial Times says business travellers to the US are being "haunted" by decades-old drug and alcohol offences. Immigration lawyers are warning that the US has toughened its approach to approving visas, the FT says, with a 108% increase in the number of travellers being refused entry to America last year.
Writing in the Daily Mail, Theresa May sets out her plans to be "absolutely ruthless" with any companies that exploit loyal customers. The prime minister is giving regulators powers to impose fines on companies that overcharge or mislead consumers, stopping firms charging unfair cancellation charges. Citizens Advice, which raised the issue, has welcomed the news, according to the FT. However, the organisation has questioned whether the new powers go far enough, while consumer watchdog Fairer Finance tells the Times it "sounds like it could be more spin than substance".
Brexit: EU believes UK economy could be hit 10 times as hard by no deal as its own EU confidence that the UK would come out far worse is bad news for Tory leadership candidates planning brinkmanship
A “state of play” document put out by the commission this week, meant to brief EU leaders, MEPs, and central bankers on the current situation, cites a 2019 estimate by the IMF that the long-term effect on the EU’s GDP by a no deal will be “well below 1 per cent”. The commission says this is “in line with most other studies”.
By contrast, when looking at how the UK fares, the commission cites figures ranging from 3 per cent to 8 per cent for the hit to the UK economy, including the British government’s own 2018 estimate of 7.7 per cent.
Cheese There will be tariffs in place on some cheeses including €22.10/100kg of cheddar, €19.10/100kg of processed cheese and €18.60/100kg on some blue cheeses
No-deal Brexit chills send pound to a five-month low vs euro
LONDON (Reuters) - Signs that arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson may be a step closer to becoming Britain's next prime minister sent the pound tumbling to a five-month low versus the euro on Tuesday as investors worried about the risks of a hard exit from the European Union. The pound dived to 89.66 pence versus the euro, its lowest level since mid-January, before the outcome of a second round of voting in the Tory leadership contest that might cement Johnson's pole position among rivals.
The Conservative leadership TV debate is the main story for most of Wednesday's papers. Inevitably perhaps, most attention focuses on the front-runner, Boris Johnson, making his biggest appearance so far during the contest. The i newspaper says the debate was an ill-tempered and chaotic encounter, but concludes that the former foreign secretary emerged unscathed. "Tory rivals can't knock Johnson off his perch," is its front page headline. The Daily Mail says none of his rivals managed to land a killer blow, while in the Sun's view. no-one laid a glove on him. The Daily Express thinks he was solid and measured, but his trademark characteristics of humour, verbal wit and stardust were entirely missing.
For the Guardian however, Mr Johnson was forced on to the defensive and cracks appeared to emerge in his positions under pressure from viewers' questions, and his rivals' replies. The Times notes that he failed to guarantee that he would leave the EU on 31 October and downgraded to an "ambition" his plans to cut taxes for higher earners. The Daily Telegraph says Mr Johnson and Rory Stewart - the favourite and the outsider, as it describes them - emerged as the winners of the debate. "The Boris and Rory show", is the headline. But the Daily Mirror wasn't impressed by any of them, describing them as clueless contenders who were unable to answer the big questions. Its headline - accompanied by a picture of the candidates perched on their stools: "Our next PM? What a joke!" Meanwhile on the debate as a whole, the Telegraph's editorial describes it as somewhat unedifying, and a shouting match according to the Mail. Daily Mirror columnist Brian Reade called it "unspeakably dull, with so little spoken apart from empty platitudes and promises". The column said it was a serious turn-off for anyone interested in politics, let alone those who could have been watching Emmerdale on ITV. In its political sketch, the Guardian says the five candidates - sitting on their stools - looked like an ageing boy band performing a reunion gig. For the Sun, it was more like the former ITV show, Blind Date.
Meanwhile, the Times reports that Jeremy Corbyn is to back a move on Wednesday for Labour to change its Brexit policy and support a second referendum in all circumstances. The paper says the shadow cabinet is due to discuss the plan to make Labour's stance decisively pro-Remain. A senior Labour source tells the paper: "It is a moment". According to the Guardian, Mr Corbyn will flesh out and develop Labour's position in a speech perhaps as soon as this week.
Tory members happy to trash UK economy and destroy their own party to get Brexit, poll finds Members of the governing party will stop at almost nothing to get Britain out of the EU
Conservative party members would happily support the break-up of the UK, “significant damage” to the British economy and even the destruction of their own party in order to secure Brexit, a poll has found. The study by YouGov found that the governing party’s membership, now thought to number just over 100,000 people, will single-mindedly stop at almost nothing to take Britain out of the EU.
With the party’s leadership contest under way to select the next prime minister, the survey of members found that 46 per cent of them would be happy to see Nigel Farage at the helm of the Tories. A further 13 per cent said they would be ambivalent, while 40 per cent said it would not be a good thing.
Sixty-three per cent of members said they would be prepared to accept Scottish independence to get Brexit, while 59 per cent said the same about a united Ireland. Just 29 and 28 per cent were opposed, respectively.
“Significant damage” to the UK economy was also no deterrent, with 61 per cent in favour and 29 per cent opposed. Some 54 per cent said the Tory party’s complete destruction would still be a price worth paying for Brexit.
The only thing Conservative members said could make them abandon Brexit was if that stopped Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. Thirty-nine per cent said they would still go ahead with Brexit if it meant the socialist moving into Downing Street, but a majority – 51 per cent – thought Labour taking power would be a bridge too far.
Boris Johnson spelled out his Brexit plan in a TV debate with his Tory leadership rivals on Tuesday night—but it raised far more questions than it answered. Johnson said Britain should be able to enjoy free trade under an interim post-Brexit agreement with the EU for as long as it takes to negotiate a longer-term trade deal. He pulled out what some Leave supporters call a “secret weapon” to achieve the seemingly unachievable—a little-known clause in World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. The frontrunner in the contest to be the next UK prime minister said Britain could exploit Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, a set of global trade rules. What is the ‘secret weapon’ of Article 24?
WTO rules generally prevent countries agreeing to have no tariffs, as Britain and the EU would do under Johnson’s plan, unless they scrap tariffs for every other country too. But Article 24 creates an exception for countries which have signed free trade agreements with each other, or have a detailed plan and timetable to create one. This is how the EU itself is allowed to keep frictionless trade and zero tariffs among members, while keeping certain barriers to other countries outside the bloc.
And this is also the tool Johnson, Farage and other Brexiteers hope to use to keep free trade with the EU immediately after Brexit, without having to immediately open Britain up to competition from the whole world too. “There will be no tariffs; there will be no quotas because what we want to do is get a standstill in our current arrangements under GATT 24—or whatever it happens to be—until such time as we have negotiated an FTA,” Johnson said on the ‘Our Next Prime Minister’ debate.
Why are there major holes in the plan?</</b>
So far so good—or so it seems. UK prime minister Theresa May is not the first to have pointed out the apparent magic bullet “does not actually reflect accurately” Britain’s situation. The first problem is that the EU itself would have to agree to form this kind of ‘interim agreement’ to get it off the ground. It is far from clear the EU would be happy to grant Britain such relatively generous terms for up to 10 years after the UK leaves, particularly before any future relationship had been agreed. The second problem is that Britain and the EU are only allowed an interim agreement if they can prove they already have a “plan and schedule” towards a future free trade deal. If not, other WTO countries have a right to demand they scrap the plans. Johnson suggested he could keep short-term free trade while negotiating a long-term free trade deal - but he would actually have to negotiate the future deal before he could guarantee immediate free trade.
Could Johnson pull off a deal before Brexit?
That would give the government and Brussels until 31 October to successfully negotiate large chunks of their future relationship, which is a seemingly impossible deadline. Many free trade deals take years to negotiate, and the EU is unwilling to negotiate the future relationship until Britain’s divorce is settled. Johnson’s recent threat to withhold Britain’s divorce bill could make negotiations even harder. READ MORE: Why a no-deal Brexit could mean twice the bureaucracy for manufacturers The EU’s trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom called the Article 24 proposal “completely wrong” earlier this month, saying Britain would inevitably face new tariffs if it left without a deal. As Peter Ungphakorn, a trade expert and former WTO official, has noted: “That’s a pretty blunt ‘secret weapon.’”
What happens if Johnson’s plan fails?
If Johnson fails to make progress but still wants to leave the EU by 31 October, Britain would have to leave without a deal. This would mean a chaotic end to current frictionless trade, leading to immediate new border delays and checks on many types of trade in and out of Britain. Some areas could see trade stopped altogether, as they would be left unregulated. Countless businesses and experts have warned this could be catastrophic for the UK, potentially disrupting the flow of vital everyday goods and services from medical devices to car parts to groceries. The Bank of England has warned unemployment and food prices could soar, the pound could crash and house prices could plunge by as much as a third. The only way Britain would be allowed to maintain reasonably free trade in some sectors with the EU would be by lowering trade barriers to all countries, not just European ones. That could see Britain flooded with cheaper goods and services from across the world, which are currently locked out of the EU market. Under the government’s current plans for this kind of scenario, many British producers including steel and bicycle makers could be devastated by the increased foreign competition.
In normal circumstances, if a public figure threatened a member of the public by saying “we’re signing your death warrant”, they would be sacked or forced to resign. This should also apply to Mark Francois.
The Conservative Party leadership race is again the main story for many of the newspapers. The Sun says it is "**** Thursday" because two more rounds of voting by Conservative MPs later will whittle down the field of four contenders for prime minister to two. The paper is not alone in suggesting that the exit from the race yesterday of Rory Stewart might have involved "clandestine backers" of Boris Johnson returning home, after only supporting Mr Stewart in the previous round to knock out Dominic Raab. One grandee tells the paper there's "game-playing" afoot to try to fix the final two. Though the MP adds that these schemes "rarely work... There really is no stupider clever electorate in the world". The Guardian also suggests that Mr Johnson's "operatives" may already have used tactical voting to knock out his Brexiteer rival, Mr Raab, on Tuesday.
The Daily Mail quotes Mr Stewart directly accusing the Johnson campaign of deploying "dark arts" to try to determine who their candidate will face in the run-off. But the paper also reports the international development secretary conceding that he had "flopped" in Tuesday's BBC debate. "His exotic blend of Mick Jagger and Lawrence of Arabia crumbled like an Eton Mess," it adds. The i also speaks of Tory fears that "dirty tricks" may be used by Mr Johnson's team to block Michael Gove - although it says the environment secretary is building momentum by closing the gap on Jeremy Hunt in second place. The Daily Telegraph - in which Mr Johnson has a column - says his supporters will mount an operation today to derail the Gove campaign. It says Mr Gove has never been forgiven for "betraying" Mr Johnson during the 2016 leadership race and "revenge is in the air". One supporter of Mr Johnson said they wanted to see his rival not just beaten - but "humiliated". The paper suggests that votes could be "lent" to Sajid Javid to put Mr Gove out of the running. Backers of the former foreign secretary are said to believe that Jeremy Hunt would be the easiest candidate for him to beat in a head-to-head contest, and want to avoid the "psycho-drama" of the two leaders of the Vote Leave campaign tearing at each other's throats during weeks of party hustings.
However, the Times columnist Jenni Russell cautions against assuming that we are watching a coronation. If they reach the ballot of party members, she argues, Mr Gove or Mr Hunt will have a last chance to skewer Boris Johnson - and could yet emerge as prime minister. Never has coming second mattered more, she says. The Times leads with Home Secretary Sajid Javid insisting he's staying in the contest to win it. The paper says his rivals believe he is holding out to stake his claim to be Mr Johnson's chancellor - a claim that will be stronger if he goes down fighting. The Financial Times suggests if Mr Javid is eliminated today, he will back the frontrunner in the hope of entering Number 11
BBC debate faces bias accusations A lot of anger is directed at the BBC over Tuesday's debate. Under a headline reading "Biased Brazen Contemptible", the Daily Mail says furious MPs are calling for watchdogs to probe the BBC's handling of its Tory leadership debate. The paper says the corporation stands accused of "fragrantly breaching its own rules on impartiality with a series of appalling blunders" - in particular, not properly vetting an anti-Israel imam or a Labour "apparatchik" who put questions to the candidates. Both were suspended from their jobs yesterday for what the Mail calls "hugely offensive" social media messages that the BBC apparently failed to spot. The BBC defended itself over the guest who had ties to Labour, saying a background in politics does not disqualify anyone from taking part in a debate show. It said the tweets from the imam were not seen during the vetting because the account had been deactivated.
The Daily Express quotes Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg as saying the programme had made the corporation look "not only biased but incompetent". The Daily Star piles in with "shame of the BBC", while the Sun gives the broadcaster both barrels, accusing it of passing off "stooges" of Jeremy Corbyn as ordinary people asking searching questions. The Sun adds that the "scandal" should trigger wholesale reform of what it says is the BBC's "blatant political bias". According to the Daily Telegraph and the Times, the final two contenders could boycott further BBC coverage as a result - including a planned Question Time programme and one-to-one interviews.
Meanwhile, according to the Daily Mirror, the shadow cabinet witnessed an "explosive showdown" when senior figures pressed Labour leader Mr Corbyn to give clearer support to another Brexit referendum. The paper says Mr Corbyn is backing another vote. It suggests the Labour leader is mulling a Harold Wilson-style arrangement like in the 1975 Common Market referendum, when different wings of the party campaigned on opposing sides.
Hammond: no-deal Brexit will quash new PM's spending plans Chancellor to warn leadership candidates they can leave with no deal or spend, but not both
The incoming prime minister will be forced to abandon any spending plans if the UK accelerates towards a no-deal Brexit, Philip Hammond is to say in a warning apparently directed at Boris Johnson. The chancellor, who is likely to be removed from the cabinet under a Johnson premiership, will tell business leaders in his Mansion House speech on Thursday that any leadership candidate must have a plan B if renegotiations with the EU fail, or their “job will be on the line”. He will say the two “core, unshakeable, beliefs” of the Conservative party are under threat – meaning belief in prudent management of public finances and in the four nations of the UK.
Philip Hammond to warn that no-deal Brexit will drain over £26bn of the UK's economy
Philip Hammond will say a second referendum could be the way to "break the impasse" with Brexit. The Chancellor will use his annual Mansion House speech on Thursday to warn Tory leadership contenders to "be honest with the public" and admit that Parliament is likely to reject both the Withdrawal Agreement and no deal. Mr Hammond is expected to say: "If the new Prime Minister cannot end the deadlock in Parliament, then he will have to explore other democratic mechanisms to break the impasse." A source close to Mr Hammond said this “leaves open” the possibility of both a second referendum and a general election. However he will also warn that an election "could put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street”...
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Top Tories say attempt to appease hardliners means coalition of support for his leadership bid will not survive the autumn
Senior Tories believe that if Boris Johnson gets to Downing Street, he’ll provoke an election by pursuing a no-deal Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/15/boris-johnson-no-deal-brexit-plan-will-trigger-early-election
As investment nears collapse, the last thing Britain needs is a PM so contemptuous of business and so fiscally heedless
And what a mess it is! There is economic and social chaos all around us. To take a specific example: during those three years, foreign direct investment in the UK has fallen by 30%, while it has increased by 43% in the other 27 members of the EU. And domestically generated investment – the seed corn of productivity and decent jobs – is also near collapse. The Bank of England estimates that, thanks to the uncertainty associated with Brexit, the level of investment in the economy is anything between 6% and 14% lower than it would have been.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/16/boris-johnson-brexit-pouring-fuel-fire
There are rumours circulating to the effect that Boris has promised the job of Chancellor to at least 4 different people.
A POWERFUL group of Brexiteer MPs have backed Boris Johnson as new Tory leader – so long as he sticks to their terms.
But the price for their support is ditching Theresa May’s deal and going for a no-deal EU exit, they have warned him. Boris Johnson has also been told in clear terms in their ultimatum that he and the Tory party will be finished if he fails to get Britain out by October 31. The Brexiteer MPs in the European Research Group (ERG) will quit and join Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party – sparking a seismic change in British politics. Writing in the Sunday Express, Mr Farage warns he fears the former London Mayor “will not deliver on his promises”. And he added “Tory defectors would be welcome in the Brexit Party.” Additional demands from the ERG include giving Mr Farage and senior Brexit Party members seats in the House of Lords, as well as welcoming them into the Conservatives after Brexit.
The senior ERG member said: “He [Boris] has to take us out with a managed no-deal, no messing around with the Northern Ireland border, GATT agreements exchanged (to allow free trade to continue while a deal is negotiated), and to then start negotiating a free trade agreement.
“If the EU don’t play ball we cut corporation tax, we give bungs to farming and the car industry and we compete hard.”
The senior ERG member also made it clear that Mr Johnson has been told he must appoint Leave supporters to the big roles in government and the party.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1140949/boris-johnson-news-brexit-deal-latest-update-tory-leadership-nigel-farage
Former Tory Chief Whip faced claims he used ‘threats’ against fellow MPs
Telling former Ministers they would not return to office unless they backed Boris
Mr Williamson also accused of scaring colleagues with dire polling figures
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145543/Inside-Gavin-Williamsons-bully-boy-campaign-drive-Boris-Johnson-No-10.html
It seems that nothing can stop Boris Johnson becoming PM. But Sunday Mirror Political Editor Nigel Nelson says he won't be PM for long.
Many horrified Tory MPs have woken up to the inevitability of the former Foreign Secretary and present one Jeremy Hunt being the final two candidates party members choose from.
And No10 is resigned to the grassroots voting Johnson having forgiven Alexander Boris de Pfeffel for his silly name and the nasty stuff we know about him.
Such as casual racism - “piccaninnies”, “water-melon smiles”, mocking Muslim women as letterboxes.
Or casual homophobia - “tank-topped bum boys”. Or fibbing about casual sex.
Though we journos won’t forget he was taped discussing having one of us beaten up during the kind of conversation not uncommon in 1930’s Germany.
At hustings on Monday he claimed to have come from 16 points behind to beat Ken Livingstone to London Mayor. By Wednesday that was 17 points.
This was to parade his credentials for winning elections against the odds. Yet a check of the polls at the time - YouGov, ComRes, BMRB - reveals he was consistently ahead.
Oh, that’s just Boris, say fans. Never lets facts stand in the way of a good story. Part of his incorrigible charm.
But he isn’t a cheeky schoolboy. He’s probably next PM.
Would they be so indulgent if he bombed Switzerland instead of Syria simply because both countries begin with an S?
Boris Johnson is the most unsuitable prime minister in all my time in politics - and I’ve met the last 10 of them.
Sure, he has a good line in patter, an ability to get laughs, and a commanding TV presence.
But these qualities make for a stand-up comedian not a statesman.
And the British people deserve better from the holder of the nation’s top office than a
talent for topping the bill at the Apollo.
Johnson hints airily at suspending Parliament to get a No Deal Brexit. Try that, pal, and one of two things will happen. A General Election which sweeps him from power.
Or rebel Tory and Labour MPs carrying out their so far only whispered threat to vaporise him by forming their own Government of National Unity.
Stranger things happen. Chuka Umunna has been in three parties this year . So far.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nelsons-column-boris-johnson-bumbling-16521540
EXCLUSIVE: The £20 tees, bankrolled by tycoon Aaron Banks, are not as British as they may seem
The controversial t-shirts certainly aren't British made
Campaigners funding Nigel Farage are selling £20 Leave.EU T-shirts made by workers in Bangladesh paid just 39p an hour.
The T-shirts are sold by the Leave.EU campaign, which boasts it is “backing Britain” and wants more jobs here.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/leaveeu-shirts-made-bangladesh-workers-16524455
Many of the papers give their assessment of the televised debate involving five of the contenders for the Conservative leadership.
"Rivals gang up to stop Boris", is the headline in The Daily Express. The paper says Boris Johnson faced a string of attacks from his rivals as they intensified their efforts to halt his advance on Downing Street.
The Times says the real winner of Sunday night's debate was not the former foreign secretary but Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
It says each of the candidates' proposals for delivering Brexit have well-rehearsed flaws which suggests a general election before 2022 is highly likely.
The paper gives each candidates marks out of 10, with Michael Gove and Rory Stewart scoring joint highest on eight, and Sajid Javid lowest on six.
The Guardian says that while Brexit produced some of the strongest clashes of the debate, the candidates also sought to set out their vision for Britain by making a series of promises on literacy, social care and student debt.
It says Mr Johnson's decision to stay away made Dominic Raab what it calls the "no deal" villain, enabling the other four candidates to gang up on him.
The sketch writer John Crace says Mr Johnson's decision to send along a lectern in his place proved to be an inspired move as it answered the questions much more directly and honestly than he ever would.
The Daily Telegraph leads with a promise by Mr Johnson to deliver super-fast broadband for the whole of the UK by 2025 - eight years sooner than the government's current plans.
As regards the debate, the paper says Mr Johnson was right to sit it out because of the way the other contenders had been allowed to gang up on Mr Raab, the only other "hard" Brexiteer.
It claims analysis showed that Mr Raab was given the least amount of time to answer - a third less than Mr Gove.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-48658191
As Conservative MPs prepare to vote in the second round of their party's leadership contest, many papers focus on the prospects of one of the six contenders.
Rory Stewart could knock out Sajid Javid or Dominic Raab, the Sun suggests.
According to the i, he's emerging as a "serious threat" in the race. The paper says Mr Stewart has warned that he has 100 Tory MPs ready to block Boris Johnson's no-deal Brexit stance.
The Daily Telegraph raises the question of whether the international development secretary was once a spy for MI6. Meanwhile, the Times suggests rival Michael Gove is trying to put off potential Stewart supporters by urging MPs to pick two Brexiteers for the final round, so as not to "polarise" the Conservative Party
After several Tory leadership hopefuls admitted having once taken drugs, the Financial Times says business travellers to the US are being "haunted" by decades-old drug and alcohol offences.
Immigration lawyers are warning that the US has toughened its approach to approving visas, the FT says, with a 108% increase in the number of travellers being refused entry to America last year.
Writing in the Daily Mail, Theresa May sets out her plans to be "absolutely ruthless" with any companies that exploit loyal customers. The prime minister is giving regulators powers to impose fines on companies that overcharge or mislead consumers, stopping firms charging unfair cancellation charges.
Citizens Advice, which raised the issue, has welcomed the news, according to the FT. However, the organisation has questioned whether the new powers go far enough, while consumer watchdog Fairer Finance tells the Times it "sounds like it could be more spin than substance".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-48671078
EU confidence that the UK would come out far worse is bad news for Tory leadership candidates planning brinkmanship
A “state of play” document put out by the commission this week, meant to brief EU leaders, MEPs, and central bankers on the current situation, cites a 2019 estimate by the IMF that the long-term effect on the EU’s GDP by a no deal will be “well below 1 per cent”. The commission says this is “in line with most other studies”.
By contrast, when looking at how the UK fares, the commission cites figures ranging from 3 per cent to 8 per cent for the hit to the UK economy, including the British government’s own 2018 estimate of 7.7 per cent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-uk-eu-economy-impact-tory-leadership-boris-johnson-a8957366.html
Cheese
There will be tariffs in place on some cheeses including €22.10/100kg of cheddar, €19.10/100kg of processed cheese and €18.60/100kg on some blue cheeses
Cars
Finished cars will face tariffs of 10.6%
LONDON (Reuters) - Signs that arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson may be a step closer to becoming Britain's next prime minister sent the pound tumbling to a five-month low versus the euro on Tuesday as investors worried about the risks of a hard exit from the European Union.
The pound dived to 89.66 pence versus the euro, its lowest level since mid-January, before the outcome of a second round of voting in the Tory leadership contest that might cement Johnson's pole position among rivals.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/no-deal-brexit-chills-send-083037024.html
The Conservative leadership TV debate is the main story for most of Wednesday's papers.
Inevitably perhaps, most attention focuses on the front-runner, Boris Johnson, making his biggest appearance so far during the contest.
The i newspaper says the debate was an ill-tempered and chaotic encounter, but concludes that the former foreign secretary emerged unscathed. "Tory rivals can't knock Johnson off his perch," is its front page headline.
The Daily Mail says none of his rivals managed to land a killer blow, while in the Sun's view. no-one laid a glove on him.
The Daily Express thinks he was solid and measured, but his trademark characteristics of humour, verbal wit and stardust were entirely missing.
For the Guardian however, Mr Johnson was forced on to the defensive and cracks appeared to emerge in his positions under pressure from viewers' questions, and his rivals' replies.
The Times notes that he failed to guarantee that he would leave the EU on 31 October and downgraded to an "ambition" his plans to cut taxes for higher earners.
The Daily Telegraph says Mr Johnson and Rory Stewart - the favourite and the outsider, as it describes them - emerged as the winners of the debate. "The Boris and Rory show", is the headline.
But the Daily Mirror wasn't impressed by any of them, describing them as clueless contenders who were unable to answer the big questions. Its headline - accompanied by a picture of the candidates perched on their stools: "Our next PM? What a joke!"
Meanwhile on the debate as a whole, the Telegraph's editorial describes it as somewhat unedifying, and a shouting match according to the Mail.
Daily Mirror columnist Brian Reade called it "unspeakably dull, with so little spoken apart from empty platitudes and promises".
The column said it was a serious turn-off for anyone interested in politics, let alone those who could have been watching Emmerdale on ITV.
In its political sketch, the Guardian says the five candidates - sitting on their stools - looked like an ageing boy band performing a reunion gig.
For the Sun, it was more like the former ITV show, Blind Date.
Meanwhile, the Times reports that Jeremy Corbyn is to back a move on Wednesday for Labour to change its Brexit policy and support a second referendum in all circumstances.
The paper says the shadow cabinet is due to discuss the plan to make Labour's stance decisively pro-Remain. A senior Labour source tells the paper: "It is a moment".
According to the Guardian, Mr Corbyn will flesh out and develop Labour's position in a speech perhaps as soon as this week.
Members of the governing party will stop at almost nothing to get Britain out of the EU
Conservative party members would happily support the break-up of the UK, “significant damage” to the British economy and even the destruction of their own party in order to secure Brexit, a poll has found.
The study by YouGov found that the governing party’s membership, now thought to number just over 100,000 people, will single-mindedly stop at almost nothing to take Britain out of the EU.
With the party’s leadership contest under way to select the next prime minister, the survey of members found that 46 per cent of them would be happy to see Nigel Farage at the helm of the Tories. A further 13 per cent said they would be ambivalent, while 40 per cent said it would not be a good thing.
Sixty-three per cent of members said they would be prepared to accept Scottish independence to get Brexit, while 59 per cent said the same about a united Ireland. Just 29 and 28 per cent were opposed, respectively.
“Significant damage” to the UK economy was also no deterrent, with 61 per cent in favour and 29 per cent opposed. Some 54 per cent said the Tory party’s complete destruction would still be a price worth paying for Brexit.
The only thing Conservative members said could make them abandon Brexit was if that stopped Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. Thirty-nine per cent said they would still go ahead with Brexit if it meant the socialist moving into Downing Street, but a majority – 51 per cent – thought Labour taking power would be a bridge too far.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-tory-members-uk-economy-scotland-northern-ireland-yougov-a8963391.html
Boris Johnson spelled out his Brexit plan in a TV debate with his Tory leadership rivals on Tuesday night—but it raised far more questions than it answered.
Johnson said Britain should be able to enjoy free trade under an interim post-Brexit agreement with the EU for as long as it takes to negotiate a longer-term trade deal.
He pulled out what some Leave supporters call a “secret weapon” to achieve the seemingly unachievable—a little-known clause in World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
The frontrunner in the contest to be the next UK prime minister said Britain could exploit Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, a set of global trade rules.
What is the ‘secret weapon’ of Article 24?
WTO rules generally prevent countries agreeing to have no tariffs, as Britain and the EU would do under Johnson’s plan, unless they scrap tariffs for every other country too.
But Article 24 creates an exception for countries which have signed free trade agreements with each other, or have a detailed plan and timetable to create one.
This is how the EU itself is allowed to keep frictionless trade and zero tariffs among members, while keeping certain barriers to other countries outside the bloc.
And this is also the tool Johnson, Farage and other Brexiteers hope to use to keep free trade with the EU immediately after Brexit, without having to immediately open Britain up to competition from the whole world too.
“There will be no tariffs; there will be no quotas because what we want to do is get a standstill in our current arrangements under GATT 24—or whatever it happens to be—until such time as we have negotiated an FTA,” Johnson said on the ‘Our Next Prime Minister’ debate.
Why are there major holes in the plan?</</b>
So far so good—or so it seems. UK prime minister Theresa May is not the first to have pointed out the apparent magic bullet “does not actually reflect accurately” Britain’s situation.
The first problem is that the EU itself would have to agree to form this kind of ‘interim agreement’ to get it off the ground.
It is far from clear the EU would be happy to grant Britain such relatively generous terms for up to 10 years after the UK leaves, particularly before any future relationship had been agreed.
The second problem is that Britain and the EU are only allowed an interim agreement if they can prove they already have a “plan and schedule” towards a future free trade deal. If not, other WTO countries have a right to demand they scrap the plans.
Johnson suggested he could keep short-term free trade while negotiating a long-term free trade deal - but he would actually have to negotiate the future deal before he could guarantee immediate free trade.
Could Johnson pull off a deal before Brexit?
That would give the government and Brussels until 31 October to successfully negotiate large chunks of their future relationship, which is a seemingly impossible deadline.
Many free trade deals take years to negotiate, and the EU is unwilling to negotiate the future relationship until Britain’s divorce is settled. Johnson’s recent threat to withhold Britain’s divorce bill could make negotiations even harder.
READ MORE: Why a no-deal Brexit could mean twice the bureaucracy for manufacturers
The EU’s trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom called the Article 24 proposal “completely wrong” earlier this month, saying Britain would inevitably face new tariffs if it left without a deal.
As Peter Ungphakorn, a trade expert and former WTO official, has noted: “That’s a pretty blunt ‘secret weapon.’”
What happens if Johnson’s plan fails?
If Johnson fails to make progress but still wants to leave the EU by 31 October, Britain would have to leave without a deal.
This would mean a chaotic end to current frictionless trade, leading to immediate new border delays and checks on many types of trade in and out of Britain. Some areas could see trade stopped altogether, as they would be left unregulated.
Countless businesses and experts have warned this could be catastrophic for the UK, potentially disrupting the flow of vital everyday goods and services from medical devices to car parts to groceries.
The Bank of England has warned unemployment and food prices could soar, the pound could crash and house prices could plunge by as much as a third.
The only way Britain would be allowed to maintain reasonably free trade in some sectors with the EU would be by lowering trade barriers to all countries, not just European ones.
That could see Britain flooded with cheaper goods and services from across the world, which are currently locked out of the EU market.
Under the government’s current plans for this kind of scenario, many British producers including steel and bicycle makers could be devastated by the increased foreign competition.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/the-big-hole-in-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-plans-uk-tory-leadership-085149610.html
James Melville
@JamesMelville
In normal circumstances, if a public figure threatened a member of the public by saying “we’re signing your death warrant”, they would be sacked or forced to resign. This should also apply to Mark Francois.
Dr Jonathan Kershaw
@jeckythump
Mark 'littlest Englander' Francois tries to act big, and fails
Mr Francois is a member of the Brexit-backing European Research Group of Tory MPs
Mr Bray is a prominent anti-Brexit campaigner.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/brexitbacking-mp-tells-remain-protester-he-is-signing-his-death-warrant-when-britain-leaves-the-eu-135402417.html
The Conservative Party leadership race is again the main story for many of the newspapers.
The Sun says it is "**** Thursday" because two more rounds of voting by Conservative MPs later will whittle down the field of four contenders for prime minister to two.
The paper is not alone in suggesting that the exit from the race yesterday of Rory Stewart might have involved "clandestine backers" of Boris Johnson returning home, after only supporting Mr Stewart in the previous round to knock out Dominic Raab.
One grandee tells the paper there's "game-playing" afoot to try to fix the final two. Though the MP adds that these schemes "rarely work... There really is no stupider clever electorate in the world".
The Guardian also suggests that Mr Johnson's "operatives" may already have used tactical voting to knock out his Brexiteer rival, Mr Raab, on Tuesday.
The Daily Mail quotes Mr Stewart directly accusing the Johnson campaign of deploying "dark arts" to try to determine who their candidate will face in the run-off.
But the paper also reports the international development secretary conceding that he had "flopped" in Tuesday's BBC debate. "His exotic blend of Mick Jagger and Lawrence of Arabia crumbled like an Eton Mess," it adds.
The i also speaks of Tory fears that "dirty tricks" may be used by Mr Johnson's team to block Michael Gove - although it says the environment secretary is building momentum by closing the gap on Jeremy Hunt in second place.
The Daily Telegraph - in which Mr Johnson has a column - says his supporters will mount an operation today to derail the Gove campaign.
It says Mr Gove has never been forgiven for "betraying" Mr Johnson during the 2016 leadership race and "revenge is in the air". One supporter of Mr Johnson said they wanted to see his rival not just beaten - but "humiliated".
The paper suggests that votes could be "lent" to Sajid Javid to put Mr Gove out of the running.
Backers of the former foreign secretary are said to believe that Jeremy Hunt would be the easiest candidate for him to beat in a head-to-head contest, and want to avoid the "psycho-drama" of the two leaders of the Vote Leave campaign tearing at each other's throats during weeks of party hustings.
However, the Times columnist Jenni Russell cautions against assuming that we are watching a coronation.
If they reach the ballot of party members, she argues, Mr Gove or Mr Hunt will have a last chance to skewer Boris Johnson - and could yet emerge as prime minister. Never has coming second mattered more, she says.
The Times leads with Home Secretary Sajid Javid insisting he's staying in the contest to win it.
The paper says his rivals believe he is holding out to stake his claim to be Mr Johnson's chancellor - a claim that will be stronger if he goes down fighting.
The Financial Times suggests if Mr Javid is eliminated today, he will back the frontrunner in the hope of entering Number 11
BBC debate faces bias accusations
A lot of anger is directed at the BBC over Tuesday's debate.
Under a headline reading "Biased Brazen Contemptible", the Daily Mail says furious MPs are calling for watchdogs to probe the BBC's handling of its Tory leadership debate.
The paper says the corporation stands accused of "fragrantly breaching its own rules on impartiality with a series of appalling blunders" - in particular, not properly vetting an anti-Israel imam or a Labour "apparatchik" who put questions to the candidates.
Both were suspended from their jobs yesterday for what the Mail calls "hugely offensive" social media messages that the BBC apparently failed to spot. The BBC defended itself over the guest who had ties to Labour, saying a background in politics does not disqualify anyone from taking part in a debate show. It said the tweets from the imam were not seen during the vetting because the account had been deactivated.
The Daily Express quotes Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg as saying the programme had made the corporation look "not only biased but incompetent".
The Daily Star piles in with "shame of the BBC", while the Sun gives the broadcaster both barrels, accusing it of passing off "stooges" of Jeremy Corbyn as ordinary people asking searching questions.
The Sun adds that the "scandal" should trigger wholesale reform of what it says is the BBC's "blatant political bias".
According to the Daily Telegraph and the Times, the final two contenders could boycott further BBC coverage as a result - including a planned Question Time programme and one-to-one interviews.
Meanwhile, according to the Daily Mirror, the shadow cabinet witnessed an "explosive showdown" when senior figures pressed Labour leader Mr Corbyn to give clearer support to another Brexit referendum.
The paper says Mr Corbyn is backing another vote. It suggests the Labour leader is mulling a Harold Wilson-style arrangement like in the 1975 Common Market referendum, when different wings of the party campaigned on opposing sides.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-48699553
Chancellor to warn leadership candidates they can leave with no deal or spend, but not both
The incoming prime minister will be forced to abandon any spending plans if the UK accelerates towards a no-deal Brexit, Philip Hammond is to say in a warning apparently directed at Boris Johnson.
The chancellor, who is likely to be removed from the cabinet under a Johnson premiership, will tell business leaders in his Mansion House speech on Thursday that any leadership candidate must have a plan B if renegotiations with the EU fail, or their “job will be on the line”.
He will say the two “core, unshakeable, beliefs” of the Conservative party are under threat – meaning belief in prudent management of public finances and in the four nations of the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/hammond-no-deal-brexit-will-quash-new-pms-spending-plans
Philip Hammond will say a second referendum could be the way to "break the impasse" with Brexit. The Chancellor will use his annual Mansion House speech on Thursday to warn Tory leadership contenders to "be honest with the public" and admit that Parliament is likely to reject both the Withdrawal Agreement and no deal.
Mr Hammond is expected to say: "If the new Prime Minister cannot end the deadlock in Parliament, then he will have to explore other democratic mechanisms to break the impasse."
A source close to Mr Hammond said this “leaves open” the possibility of both a second referendum and a general election.
However he will also warn that an election "could put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street”...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/19/philip-hammond-say-second-referendum-could-way-break-impasse/