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Brexit

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  • dragon1964dragon1964 Member Posts: 3,054
    Maybe Aldi and Lidl realise many people in the UK will be worse off after brexit.

    To make ends meet, more people may need to use cheaper supermarkets.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918

    Maybe Aldi and Lidl realise many people in the UK will be worse off after brexit.

    To make ends meet, more people may need to use cheaper supermarkets.

    Or foodbanks.
  • dragon1964dragon1964 Member Posts: 3,054
    HAYSIE said:

    Maybe Aldi and Lidl realise many people in the UK will be worse off after brexit.

    To make ends meet, more people may need to use cheaper supermarkets.

    Or foodbanks.
    Agreed.
    Unfortunately.
  • chillingchilling Member Posts: 3,774
    HAYSIE said:

    chilling said:



    What do German retailers know about Brexit that we don’t?
    Although “ conquer “ 👀 is suggested.




    They’re probably after their share of the US beef sales.

    Firstly, its hormone free.

    Secondly, its a mere 35,000 tonnes to the whole of the EU.

    Thirdly, we wont be in the EU.
    Surely after sailing across the Atlantic they could drop us off a couple of crates of the “ good stuff”.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Boris Johnson’s Brexit policy risks no-deal crash-out next year that will trigger a recession and return to austerity, expert IFS analysis indicates
    Instittute for Fiscal Studies says it is 'plausible' to expect a £50 billion boost to UK economy if Brexit is cancelled




    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-no-deal-recession-austerity-general-election-ifs-a9223196.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    General election 2019: Seven-way debate fact-checked






    The Brexit Party's Richard Tice claimed: "[Brexit] would make us wealthier."
    Reality Check: The government's 2018 long-term economic analysis suggested the UK would be economically poorer under any form of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU.
    It said that if the UK had a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU after Brexit, the country's Gross Domestic Product (everything produced in an economy in one year) would be 6.7% lower after 15 years than it would have been compared with remaining in the EU.
    And if the UK left the EU with no deal, the economy would be 9.3% smaller after 15 years than it would be if Brexit didn't happen at all.
    The vast majority of economists agree with the assessment that Brexit would make the UK poorer compared with staying in the EU.
    No official analysis of the government's current Brexit deal has been published, although the National Institute of Economic and Social Research recently published an analysis that claimed it would leave the economy smaller than remaining in the EU would.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50606903
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    edited November 2019
    ‘That’s completely wrong’: Michael Gove falsely claims EU has no single market for services
    Future for services sector will be ‘way worse’ after Brexit, trade experts warns – after top Conservative claims it will ‘flourish’



    Trade experts have criticised Michael Gove after he wrongly claimed there is no single market for services in the EU and argued companies will “flourish” after Brexit.
    The Cabinet Office minister was accused of getting his facts wrong after branding the EU “bureaucratic” and as holding back firms in the crucial services sector – which makes up 80 per cent of the UK’s economy.

    “That’s completely wrong. There is a single market in services, although it is not complete,” Professor Alan Winters of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex told The Independent.



    On the future for services outside the EU, he added: “It’s going to be way worse. It looks as if there is very little that is being seriously negotiated on services.”

    Sam Lowe, of the Centre for European Reform think tank, echoed the verdict, saying: “The single market in services is not as developed as the single market in goods, but it very much does exist.”

    The criticism comes after Ivan Rogers, a former UK ambassador in Brussels, warned the services industry was likely to be sacrificed in a “quick and dirty” trade deal with the EU.

    Around 45 per cent of UK exports are in services, in areas such as banking, insurance, legal services and the creative industries, which have all prospered through EU membership.

    “Outside the EU we might be able to relax some of the rules but if we do, we would not be able to trade those services with the EU in the same way as now,” he said. “That would be a big cost for the UK.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-brexit-single-market-services-trade-general-election-latest-a9218606.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,783

    Maybe Aldi and Lidl realise many people in the UK will be worse off after brexit.

    To make ends meet, more people may need to use cheaper supermarkets.

    This reminded me of an old gag on Mock the Week.

    Everyone will move down 1 on supermarkets. This will mean:-

    Waitrose shoppers switching to Tecsos
    Tescos swapping to Morrisons.
    Morrisons swapping to Aldi.
    And Aldi shoppers rooting around in bins...
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Industry warns no-deal Brexit will cost UK car sector £40bn by 2024



    The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders warned on Tuesday that leaving the European Union without a Brexit deal would cost the British car industry £40bn in the next five years.
    Independent research commissioned by the SMMT calculates that World Trade Organisation tariffs on both imported car components and exported cars would add over £3bn a year to manufacturing costs—an amount equal to the sector’s current annual research-and-development spending.
    These huge costs would effectively devastate British manufacturing, the SMMT said, forcing it to raise its prices, which in turn would kill demand.
    The research estimates that WTO tariffs would drive down UK production volumes by 1.5 million units by 2024, which would amount to a value of over £42bn.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nodeal-brexit-cost-uk-car-industry-40-bn-by-2024-093000573.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Is Boris Johnson heading for another Brexit crisis?



    Boris Johnson’s promise to “Get Brexit Done” has proved a powerful election slogan, but the prime minister’s critics claim it masks the fact that if he wins the election Britain faces a tough and potentially humiliating trade negotiation with the EU.
    Michael Heseltine, former deputy prime minister, called it “the great delusion”, while Ivan Rogers, Britain’s former ambassador to the EU, warned last week of “the crisis that is likely to confront us at the Christmas yet to come — Christmas 2020”.
    Mr Johnson and fellow ministers have so far brushed aside any idea that a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU would be anything other than simple. “Most of the work has already been done,” chancellor Sajid Javid claimed.
    But by insisting that a deal must be done by December 2020, Mr Johnson has set a highly ambitious — some say impossible — timetable for talks. His critics claim Britain is heading for another economic and political Brexit crisis if he is returned to Downing Street.

    What does Mr Johnson want to do?

    The prime minister says the UK will leave the EU by the end of January and then negotiate a trade deal as a third country within 11 months. “We will not extend the implementation period beyond December 2020,” the Tory manifesto says, referring to the deadline set by the withdrawal agreement negotiated with Brussels.
    Mr Johnson claims a deal would be easy because London and Brussels are aligned on regulations on day one. But the question is not where Britain is now but where it might end up. Divergence from EU regulations and standards is the essence of Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal.



    The prime minister proved this point on Friday when he said Britain would diverge from the EU on state aid rules, offering to make it easier to prop up ailing industries. Trade experts warned that this could distort the “level playing field” upon which any trade deal with the EU would be built.
    Sir Ivan said last week that Mr Johnson thought Britain could enjoy autonomy and trade and regulation, on both goods and services, and on migration policy, but not suffer any downside in terms of access to the EU’s market.
    “This is clearly untrue,” he said at Glasgow university. “It does not get any truer through endless repetition.” Sir Ivan said that Mr Johnson, by creating a new cliff-edge next Christmas, had made it more likely Britain would get a bad deal.



    David Henig, a former British trade negotiator, says simply: “I can’t see it.” EU officials warn that Brussels and the UK may have as little as five months to strike a deal, given the time needed to legally check it, translate it and ratify it.
    It took four months and 10 days to prepare a draft EU/Japan trade deal for ratification — including “legal scrubbing” and translation into 24 official EU languages — and this is viewed in Brussels as an example of the bloc moving at breakneck speed.
    Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator, says the time available is “exceptionally short” and that “a first moment of truth” would come in the summer of 2020. Mr Johnson has until July 1 to seek an extension of the transition period, if no trade agreement is ready.



    What sort of trade deal could the UK secure in a matter of months?

    Mr Barnier says the EU’s objective will be to strike a trade deal which provides tariff-free and quota-free access on goods, as sought by Britain. But Brussels has said little about what might be on offer on services, an area where international trade agreements tend to achieve less in terms of market access.
    Observers note this approach could be mainly to the EU’s advantage.
    It would help maintain trade in goods, where the EU enjoyed a £94bn surplus in 2018 in trade with the UK. It might do little or nothing on services, where Britain has run a trade surplus with the EU in every year since 2005.
    Sir Ivan says Mr Johnson’s plan to end free movement would lead to Brussels retaliating by making it harder for British professionals to work in Europe. “Firms are only just waking up to the huge implications on professional mobility,” he said.
    Any deal would require “level playing field” undertakings from the UK — covering state aid, labour law, the environment, and tax. Mr Henig says EU member states would have their own demands, for example Poland might insist on free movement and the Dutch on fishing rights to UK waters — likely to be one of the most contentious areas in future negotiations.





    Could Mr Johnson extend the transition deal?

    The Tory manifesto, in bold type, says No. But Mr Johnson’s “die in a ditch” rhetoric on his previous promise to take Britain out of the EU on October 31 amounted to nothing; it has led some to speculate he might renege on this promise too.
    Under the EU exit deal negotiated by the UK, Mr Johnson could ask to extend the transition until 2022, keeping Britain in a “standstill” arrangement with the EU, described by the prime minister and other hard Brexiters previously as “vassalage”.
    David Gauke, former Tory justice secretary, predicts that if Mr Johnson did that then Tory MPs would try to topple him and an ambitious Brexiter Tory minister could quit the cabinet, eyeing a leadership bid. “It has been done before,” Mr Gauke said.

    What happens if no trade deal is in place by December 2020?

    Unless Britain agrees to extend the transition period — possibly precipitating a political crisis for Mr Johnson — it could instead face an economic crisis if it left the EU without a trade deal and defaulted to basic World Trade Organization rules.
    Mr Johnson has refused during the election campaign to countenance a “no deal” exit from the transition in December 2020, knowing that such a prospect would alarm business and scare Remain-leaning Tory supporters.
    But a WTO exit would see the erection overnight of new trade barriers, quotas and tariffs. Mr Johnson has instead simply insisted the deal will be done. “Not perhaps the most compelling argument,” said Lord Heseltine drily.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/is-boris-johnson-heading-for-another-brexit-crisis/ar-BBXCmGL?ocid=spartanntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918



    The EU's new financial services chief tells the Financial Times that the City of London could lose its access to the European market after Brexit - if the UK waters down regulations around banking and consumer protections.
    The FT suggests the comments reflect a desire in Brussels to make sure that any post-Brexit trade deal creates a "level playing field that prevents either side chopping away at regulations to gain a competitive advantage".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50638610
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Boris Johnson’s Brexit plans will cost economy up to £20bn a year, report warns

    “Getting Brexit” on the terms of the Tory manifesto will inflict a hit of up to £20bn a year on government finances, rising as high as £28bn if the UK crashes out of the EU without a trade deal, a new report has warned.

    Analysis by the UK in a Changing Europe (UKCE) think tank estimated that Labour’s softer proposed withdrawal deal would deliver a positive fiscal impact of £2-£12bn

    The Lib Dem plan to halt Brexit altogether would provide a “Remain bonus” worth £12bn a year to government coffers.

    Our political editor has all the details:



    Boris Johnson's Brexit plans will cost UK economy up to £20bn a year, report warns
    Tory manifesto plans mean Brexit uncertainty and risk no-deal crash-out at end of 2020, says think tank
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Brexit will make all the election spending promises hard to keep



    If the president of the United States, a non-European, feels entitled to air his views about Brexit, I see no reason why the outgoing president of the European council, Donald Tusk – a much more agreeable Donald – should not air his.
    Quoting Hannah Arendt, Tusk said: “Things only become irreversible when people start to think so.” Tusk, who rightly thinks the very idea of Brexit is, to quote another US observer, Michael Bloomberg, “a mistake”, says: “Don’t give up.”

    Many of these advantages are now threatened by the prospect of Brexit. We already knew of Nissan and Honda’s concerns about being left out of the single market – in effect about Japanese companies being double-crossed by a Tory party that, under Thatcher, made the single market the lure for such investment.

    Relative to EU membership, leaving the customs union and single market implies, according to the NIESR, that UK-EU goods trade would be “lower by 40%, and UK-EU service trade … lower by 60%”. This would be devastating, and not compensated for by the fantasy world of Singapore-style trade deals, which might take 10 years to negotiate.
    That is not all. During an election campaign in which both major parties are promising largesse on an unprecedented scale, the NIESR estimates that, as a result of Johnson’s great “deal”, “government revenue would be lower by around 2.5% in the long run, or £26bn a year at 2016 prices”. They go on: “The shortfall relative to a closer economic relationship with the EU would have to be met by raising tax rates, increased public borrowing or reduced public spending, or a combination of all these options.”


    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-election-spending-promises-hard-070010849.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Brexit: Tory minister admits US will be free to raise prices for drugs bought by NHS
    Asked if Washington would be able to ‘jack up prices’, Dominic Raab replies: ‘The Americans will take their decisions’




    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dominic-raab-brexit-nhs-privatisation-trump-us-drugs-price-increase-a9230661.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    After her latest blunder, is expecting Priti Patel to understand immigration rules really too much to ask?
    If the goal with Brexit was to cut EU migration, that has already been achieved. Brexit has made itself redundant, as EU citizens deterred by the dangers of leaving the union choose to make their lives elsewhere


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/priti-patel-immigration-brexit-conservatives-trump-visa-movement-a9230571.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Jeremy Corbyn reveals secret report showing 'cold hard evidence of Brexit harm'
    In his second bombshell leak, the Labour leader held aloft a government report which he claimed proved Boris Johnson's had misled voters about the impact of his Brexit
    deal




    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-jeremy-corbyn-reveals-secret-21037797
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Top UK diplomat quits with tirade at government's 'half-truth' over Brexit
    Alexandra Hall Hall condemned leaders' lack of honesty and 'misleading or disingenuous arguments' according to CNN, which reports it has obtained the diplomat's resignation letter




    A top UK diplomat in the US has sensationally quit with a blast at the government for peddling "half-truths" over Brexit , it is reported today.
    Alexandra Hall Hall - the lead envoy for Brexit at the British Embassy in Washington - said she was "dismayed" by political leaders' lack of honesty "even with our own citizens" about the challenges of leaving the EU, according to CNN.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/top-uk-diplomat-quits-tirade-21040696
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    Brexit blamed as investors trapped in £2.5bn UK property fund




    Investors in a £2.5bn UK property fund have been blocked from withdrawing cash after “unusually high and sustained outflows.”
    M&G Investments (MNG.L) said on Wednesday afternoon it was halting withdrawals from its UK-focused Property Portfolio Fund with immediate affect.
    The company said that “unusually high and sustained outflows” combined with “continued Brexit-related political uncertainty and ongoing structural shifts in the UK retail sector” have made it “difficult” to sell buildings it is invested fast enough to meet redemptions.
    “Given these circumstances, we have now reached a point where M&G believes it will best protect the interests of the Funds’ customers by applying a temporary suspension in dealing,” the company said.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/m-g-property-portfolio-fund-withdrawals-blocked-brexit-160429029.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,918
    ‘There will be checks’: Ireland intervenes after Boris Johnson accused of lying to voters about Brexit deal
    Irish government says there will clearly be checks as part of deal









    Ireland’s government has stepped in to clarify the Brexit deal after Boris Johnson was accused of misleading voters over the nature of his agreement.
    The prime minister had claimed that there would be no checks or controls on goods crossing the Irish Sea under the treaty he negotiated with Brussels.

    Mr Johnson was accused of lying to voters after he repeatedly insisted that there would be no checks, despite the deal’s actual content.


    But on Monday, Ireland’s foreign minister Simon Coveney intervened, telling public broadcaster RTE that it was “clear” that the new deal includes checks.

    “It was very clear when the deal was done,” Mr Coveney said. “The EU has made it clear they want to minimise the impact on goods coming from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, but at the same time goods coming from Great Britain to Northern Ireland will need to have some checks to ensure that the EU knows what is potentially coming into their market through Northern Ireland.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-deal-ireland-general-election-vote-latest-a9239296.html
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