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Brexit

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  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894
    chilling said:

    The BOE seem to think raising rates will stifle growth.
    Hurt the housing market.
    No room for a crisis with the strategy they’ve been using.

    This is quite frustrating, you don't seem able to get your head around the debate,

    This is a Brexit thread.

    I am debating the pitfalls of the Boris position on Brexit.

    You are avoiding this.

    I am arguing that Boris will cause damage to the economy because of the path he has chosen.

    He could have chosen a different path.

    He has no mandate for the path he has chosen.

    You wish to bring other measures into this debate.

    Even if raising or lowering interest rates were to mitigate this damage it is irrelevant to the argument.

    The debate is regarding the inevitable results of Mr Johnstones chosen path.

    Lets say he damages the economy by 5% of GDP, due to his divergence from the EU.

    Lets say that raising or lowering interest rates mitigates this by lets say 1% of GDP, it doesn't make the divergence the correct decision.

    The alignment or divergence is a debate on its own.

    Other measures that may mitigate the damage, are a different debate and irrelevant to this.

    I know you are not keen on facts, with the exception of Tony Blair being responsible for all the terrorism in the world.

    Here are a few facts.

    The closer we remain aligned to the EU, the more access we will be allowed to the Single Market.

    The more access we retain to the Single Market, the less jobs are at risk, and the least damage is caused to the economy.

    The more we diverge the less access we get to the SM.

    Boris has already chosen to diverge, and therefore cause the most damage possible to our economy.

    Whatever measures that may soften the blow, he has still chosen this path.

    If altering interest rates was a benefit, then this could be done, in addition to remaining aligned, and causing less damage.

    To argue that it is ok to take the path that caused the most damage, but altering interest rates may slightly improve the damage, is absolutely idiotic.

    This is the argument you seem to be making.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894
    chilling said:

    The BOE seem to think raising rates will stifle growth.
    Hurt the housing market.
    No room for a crisis with the strategy they’ve been using.

    Put very simply.

    We have two choices.

    One causes lots of damage, the other very little damage.

    In either case lets assume that altering interest rates would cause an improvement.

    Surely you would have to choose the option that caused very little damage, and alter the interest rate.

    To argue that the alteration of interest rates somehow justifies choosing the option that caused the most damage, is very foolish.

    Boris has made a very foolish choice.
  • chillingchilling Member Posts: 3,774
    Can’t be arsed today, gee gee time.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894
    chilling said:

    Can’t be arsed today, gee gee time.

    Bad start in first race put the 1st and 2nd in my placepot, but backed the 2nd to win.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894
    chilling said:

    Can’t be arsed today, gee gee time.

    Placepot ticket.


    Betslip
    My Bets
    Open Bets
    Settled Bets

    Sports
    Lotto
    Pools
    Totepool
    Jackpot

    Leg 1 13:30 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Abacadabras
    13. Shishkin
    Leg 2 14:10 Cheltenham (CH)
    7. Notebook
    9. Rouge Vif
    Leg 3 14:50 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Vinndication
    Leg 4 15:30 Cheltenham (CH)
    7. Darver Star
    17. Epatante
    Leg 5 16:10 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Benie Des Dieux
    Leg 6 16:50 Cheltenham (CH)
    8. Imperial Aura
    10. Galvin
    Stake:
    £16.00
    Potential Returns:
    N/A
    Bet Receipt: P/142817519/0010028
    12:00 - 10 Mar
    Totepool
    Placepot

    Leg 1 13:30 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Abacadabras
    13. Shishkin
    Leg 2 14:10 Cheltenham (CH)
    7. Notebook
    9. Rouge Vif
    Leg 3 14:50 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Vinndication
    Leg 4 15:30 Cheltenham (CH)
    7. Darver Star
    17. Epatante
    Leg 5 16:10 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Benie Des Dieux
    Leg 6 16:50 Cheltenham (CH)
    8. Imperial Aura
    10. Galvin
    Stake:
    £80.00
    Potential Returns:
    N/A
    Bet Receipt: P/142817519/0010027
    11:55 - 10 Mar
  • chillingchilling Member Posts: 3,774
    HAYSIE said:

    chilling said:

    Can’t be arsed today, gee gee time.

    Placepot ticket.


    Betslip
    My Bets
    Open Bets
    Settled Bets

    Sports
    Lotto
    Pools
    Totepool
    Jackpot

    Leg 1 13:30 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Abacadabras
    13. Shishkin
    Leg 2 14:10 Cheltenham (CH)
    7. Notebook
    9. Rouge Vif
    Leg 3 14:50 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Vinndication
    Leg 4 15:30 Cheltenham (CH)
    7. Darver Star
    17. Epatante
    Leg 5 16:10 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Benie Des Dieux
    Leg 6 16:50 Cheltenham (CH)
    8. Imperial Aura
    10. Galvin
    Stake:
    £16.00
    Potential Returns:
    N/A
    Bet Receipt: P/142817519/0010028
    12:00 - 10 Mar
    Totepool
    Placepot

    Leg 1 13:30 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Abacadabras
    13. Shishkin
    Leg 2 14:10 Cheltenham (CH)
    7. Notebook
    9. Rouge Vif
    Leg 3 14:50 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Vinndication
    Leg 4 15:30 Cheltenham (CH)
    7. Darver Star
    17. Epatante
    Leg 5 16:10 Cheltenham (CH)
    1. Benie Des Dieux
    Leg 6 16:50 Cheltenham (CH)
    8. Imperial Aura
    10. Galvin
    Stake:
    £80.00
    Potential Returns:
    N/A
    Bet Receipt: P/142817519/0010027
    11:55 - 10 Mar
    Good effort.
    I might post in ‘ its coming’ later. Purely based on logic.
    As I think you may well be over 60, it may or not apply to you.
    Just my thoughts through logic, as there seems to be quite a few different views on the virus.
    It’ll be in the early hours though, as I perform better in bed, hence all the children.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894






    For many of the newspapers, the coronavirus outbreak presents the chancellor with a very different background to the one he expected for his first Budget.
    In the Daily Mail's words, this was to be the Budget which marked the end of austerity, launching a comprehensive infrastructure programme, levelling up the regions and revitalising public services.
    While those things are still vital - the paper goes on - the over-riding imperative for now is to beat the coronavirus.
    The Huffpost UK website says emergency funds to help cope with the contagion are set to form the central plank of the Budget.



    As the i newspaper puts it, Rishi Sunak has a simple task - break glass, retrieve emergency measures. For the Daily Telegraph, this is an emergency - and requires an emergency response.
    In the Sun's view, the chancellor's priority must be to mitigate the effects of the illness by preventing firms going bust and the self-employed suffering hardships while off sick. It also calls for payment holidays, a VAT cut - whatever it takes, the paper says.



    There are many pictures of deserted streets and tourist attractions in Italy - and of people keeping a safe distance from each other as they queue outside a Post Office in Rome. The Daily Mail asks - could this be Britain in weeks?
    The Times says the decision of whether and when to introduce such measures is inevitably one of political judgement - and where the balance is to be struck between the economic disruption of lockdown and the human cost in terms of increased deaths.
    The paper thinks the choices that Boris Johnson makes in the coming days will be critical.



    The Sun leads with a claim that Prince Harry has been duped by two Russian pranksters who made hoax calls pretending to be the climate change campaigner, Greta Thunberg, and her father.
    According to the paper, the hoaxers had two conversations with the Duke of Sussex, in which he spoke openly about the decision to step down from royal duties and the tension surrounding it.
    He's quoted as saying: "This decision certainly wasn't the easy one, but it was the right decision for our family, the right decision to be able to protect my son."
    The paper says he told the pair that he was in the military for 10 years - so was more normal than his family would like to believe.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-51827922
















    Russia?



    Grooming gangs review: Government refusal to publish ‘characteristics’ research could be debated by MPs after 100,000 sign petition
    Home Office previously denied Freedom of Information request by The Independent, claiming publication was not ‘in the public interest’



    The government’s refusal to publish its research into the “characteristics” of grooming gangs could be debated by MPs.
    More than 100,000 people have signed an official petition demanding the report is published, meaning it must be considered for debate in parliament.
    The petition was sparked by an Independent article revealing that the Home Office refused to publish the document, claiming the move would not be in the “public interest”.

    “We, the British public, demand the release of the official research on grooming gangs undertaken by the government in full,” the petition says.
    It cites another Independent article, which revealed that almost 19,000 suspected child victims of sexual exploitation were identified by local authorities in just one year.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/grooming-gangs-review-petition-home-office-characteristics-research-debate-a9388746.html


  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894
    chilling said:

    Can’t be arsed today, gee gee time.

    Yawn, not another excuse for avoiding the same questions?
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894


    Good effort.
    I might post in ‘ its coming’ later. Purely based on logic.
    As I think you may well be over 60, it may or not apply to you.
    Just my thoughts through logic, as there seems to be quite a few different views on the virus.
    It’ll be in the early hours though, as I perform better in bed, hence all the children.


    Boris Johnson risks Tory fury by 'handing plum job' to Chris Grayling



    Boris Johnson has risked the fury of his own party by handing hapless former minister Chris Grayling a plum job, it has been reported.
    The ex-Transport Secretary will sit on Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee.
    And according to the Sun , other Tories on the committee have been ordered to elect him as the body’s new chairman.
    The prestigious committee has the role of scrutinising the UK’s security services including MI5, MI6 and GCHQ.
    The committee was formerly run by Dominic Grieve, the former Attorney General.
    And its first job will be to publish the long-delayed report on Russian influence in British politics, which the government refused to release before the election.



    Dubbed ‘Failing Grayling’ - the long-serving Cabinet Minister left the government last summer after nine years of failure and catastrophe.
    Mr Grayling was Justice Secretary when he pioneered the part-privatisation of the probation system in 2014.
    Other failures on his watch have included legal aid cuts, train timetable changes, the East Coast rail line, court and tribunal fees, Saudi prison training and benefits 'workfare'.
    And perhaps most spectacularly, he handed a lucrative post-Brexit ferries contract to a firm that had no ferries.




    Seaborne Freight's £13.8m deal fell apart after the firm was mocked for lacking ships and apparently copying terms and conditions from a takeaway website.


    Mr Grayling has previously insisted he's targeted unfairly, blaming the criticism he receives on "left-wing" unions and his support for Brexit .


    The chairmanship of the Intelligence and Security Committee has traditionally been handed to MPs as a reward for long service to the government.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-risks-tory-fury-by-handing-plum-job-to-chris-grayling/ar-BB111U18?ocid=spartanntp
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894
    HAYSIE said:



    Good effort.
    I might post in ‘ its coming’ later. Purely based on logic.
    As I think you may well be over 60, it may or not apply to you.
    Just my thoughts through logic, as there seems to be quite a few different views on the virus.
    It’ll be in the early hours though, as I perform better in bed, hence all the children.


    Boris Johnson risks Tory fury by 'handing plum job' to Chris Grayling



    Boris Johnson has risked the fury of his own party by handing hapless former minister Chris Grayling a plum job, it has been reported.
    The ex-Transport Secretary will sit on Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee.
    And according to the Sun , other Tories on the committee have been ordered to elect him as the body’s new chairman.
    The prestigious committee has the role of scrutinising the UK’s security services including MI5, MI6 and GCHQ.
    The committee was formerly run by Dominic Grieve, the former Attorney General.
    And its first job will be to publish the long-delayed report on Russian influence in British politics, which the government refused to release before the election.



    Dubbed ‘Failing Grayling’ - the long-serving Cabinet Minister left the government last summer after nine years of failure and catastrophe.
    Mr Grayling was Justice Secretary when he pioneered the part-privatisation of the probation system in 2014.
    Other failures on his watch have included legal aid cuts, train timetable changes, the East Coast rail line, court and tribunal fees, Saudi prison training and benefits 'workfare'.
    And perhaps most spectacularly, he handed a lucrative post-Brexit ferries contract to a firm that had no ferries.




    Seaborne Freight's £13.8m deal fell apart after the firm was mocked for lacking ships and apparently copying terms and conditions from a takeaway website.


    Mr Grayling has previously insisted he's targeted unfairly, blaming the criticism he receives on "left-wing" unions and his support for Brexit .


    The chairmanship of the Intelligence and Security Committee has traditionally been handed to MPs as a reward for long service to the government.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-risks-tory-fury-by-handing-plum-job-to-chris-grayling/ar-BB111U18?ocid=spartanntp

    His support for Brexit should have, at the very least, convinced all leave voters that it was definitely the wrong thing to do.
  • madprofmadprof Member Posts: 3,459
    I'd like to think the arrogance by which this old boys club operates had some boundaries...clearly not!

    I suppose Boris, surrounding himself with people who are both a) chummies and yes men and b) more incompetent than him has a degree of strategy??
  • tai-gartai-gar Member Posts: 2,689
    madprof said:

    I'd like to think the arrogance by which this old boys club operates had some boundaries...clearly not!

    I suppose Boris, surrounding himself with people who are both a) chummies and yes men and b) more incompetent than him has a degree of strategy??

    My only question would be where on earth can he get people "more incompetent than him"?
  • tomgooduntomgoodun Member Posts: 3,754
    So, we have a coronabrexit Budget, pretty sure Boris was scathing of Labour Borrowing and spending plans, have the Conservative Party turned into the Marxist Party, or is Boris a tactical genius who steals other people’s ideas and pi.....s on your shoes and tells you it’s raining?
  • chillingchilling Member Posts: 3,774
    HAYSIE said:

    chilling said:

    The BOE seem to think raising rates will stifle growth.
    Hurt the housing market.
    No room for a crisis with the strategy they’ve been using.

    Put very simply.

    We have two choices.

    One causes lots of damage, the other very little damage.

    In either case lets assume that altering interest rates would cause an improvement.

    Surely you would have to choose the option that caused very little damage, and alter the interest rate.

    To argue that the alteration of interest rates somehow justifies choosing the option that caused the most damage, is very foolish.

    Boris has made a very foolish choice.
    HAYSIE said:

    chilling said:

    The BOE seem to think raising rates will stifle growth.
    Hurt the housing market.
    No room for a crisis with the strategy they’ve been using.

    Put very simply.

    We have two choices.

    One causes lots of damage, the other very little damage.

    In either case lets assume that altering interest rates would cause an improvement.

    Surely you would have to choose the option that caused very little damage, and alter the interest rate.

    To argue that the alteration of interest rates somehow justifies choosing the option that caused the most damage, is very foolish.

    Boris has made a very foolish choice.
    Im referring to the BOE not raising rates a few years ago.
    If they had, then there would be room for cuts and help.
    Carney moved the goalposts from the unemployment rate to then say now it’s inflation we’re watching.He did nothing, scared of stifling growth, and hurting the housing market.
    I do get insulted a lot on here, but that seems to say more about you than me.
    I suspect you want to score points. Thats sad.

    If you’ve got any complaints about the Government, get a petition going, then deliver it to Downing Street. No 10 btw.
  • chillingchilling Member Posts: 3,774
    HAYSIE said:

    chilling said:

    Can’t be arsed today, gee gee time.

    Yawn, not another excuse for avoiding the same questions?
    I don’t avoid anyone Haysie.
  • chillingchilling Member Posts: 3,774
    You appear to have been sold a story that you believe.
    Most of your questions refer to the said story.
    They’re not worth a reply.
  • chillingchilling Member Posts: 3,774
    I thought the phrase was ‘ the older you get, the wiser you are’.
  • madprofmadprof Member Posts: 3,459
    tai-gar said:

    madprof said:

    I'd like to think the arrogance by which this old boys club operates had some boundaries...clearly not!

    I suppose Boris, surrounding himself with people who are both a) chummies and yes men and b) more incompetent than him has a degree of strategy??

    My only question would be where on earth can he get people "more incompetent than him"?
    Well...he found one!
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894




    Rishi Sunak's first Budget - and the measures he announced to help Britain cope with the coronavirus outbreak - dominate the front pages.
    For the Daily Mail, it's "Dr Feelgood to the Rescue". The paper says Mr Sunak "gave the economy a £30bn vaccination" in an assured debut as chancellor.
    The Daily Express says he delivered a "bold battle plan" for Britain's war against the virus.
    "Sunak's road to riches" is the headline in the Times. The paper says the chancellor's £30bn spending spree marks the biggest giveaway since Norman Lamont's pre-election budget in 1992.



    The Guardian agrees he's "splashing the cash" - but questions whether it will "hit the right targets".
    The paper says criticism from the backbenches was led by the former prime minister, Theresa May, who sounded a warning about the long-term impact of loosening the purse strings.
    The Spectator's Isabel Hardman says the £30bn package for dealing with coronavirus looks like "small change" when you consider the overall spend.
    "It could easily have been a Labour budget", she writes - and all the noises from the chancellor are that he's keen to spend more.

    The Daily Telegraph says Boris Johnson is about to announce that the coronavirus outbreak cannot be contained - and that Britain is moving to the next phase of its response.
    The paper says the prime minister will outline a timetable of social distancing measures for the public after chairing a meeting of the government's emergency committee on Thursday.




    US President Donald Trump's European travel ban came too late for the UK newspapers. The New York Times website says Mr Trump finally appears to be acknowledging the severity of coronavirus.
    His announcement, the paper says, "signalled a break from the business-as-usual attitude" he had been trying to project two days ago, when he said the virus would soon go away.
    The Washington Post says the policy is another example of President Trump failing to work with other world leaders to fashion a common response - preferring to promote his border wall over the scientific advice of his own medical experts.
    The Financial Times reports that stark growth forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have "laid bare" the economic cost of Brexit.
    The official budget watchdog warned that leaving the European Union would hit growth, exports and the public finances at a time of rising uncertainty.
    The paper says the OBR predicts a drop in GDP of more than 5% over the next 15 years, even if a trade deal is struck.



    And the Daily Telegraph reports that storm clouds are gathering over the French wine industry - because of a growing thirst for craft beer.
    Domestic sales of Bordeaux have fallen to their lowest level for 20 years. The number of microbreweries, by contrast, has shot up.
    The Bordeaux Wine Council said it planned to launch a new advertising campaign, promoting the "hipsters, creatives and crazy people" who produce wine - in a bid to win back young drinkers.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-51845708


















    Budget 2020: UK debt to top £2 trillion as government spending 'resembles' Gordon Brown's, Treasury watchdog warns
    OBR warns of greater risks than when Labour opened spending taps – even as it slashes its 2020 growth forecast



    The UK’s debt is set to crash through the £2 trillion barrier, with the government’s spending splurge starting to “resemble” Gordon Brown’s, the independent Treasury watchdog has said.
    In a verdict that will alarm many Tories, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said economic policy now mirrored Labour’s in the run-up to the financial crash – but with greater risks.

    The Budget plans revealed on Wednesday – £175bn for infrastructure over five years, plus a short-term £30bn injection to protect against the coronavirus – were “sustainable” if borrowing costs remained at rock bottom, it said.



    However, the OBR’s director, Robert Chote, said: “The public finances are much more vulnerable to nasty inflation and interest-rate surprises than they were.”

    The warning came as the OBR slashed its 2020 growth forecast to the lowest annual level since the financial crisis – 1.1 per cent, instead of 1.4 per cent – even before the “significant” hit from the coronavirus.



    The economic and fiscal story of the Budget in five charts
    It concluded that Brexit had delivered a 2 per cent hit to the economy since the 2016 referendum because of weaker productivity growth and shrinking business investment.






    Before the Leave vote, investment had been projected to surge by 20 per cent by this point in 2020, but “has barely grown”, the watchdog said.



    It also warned of a further productivity slump to come from the prime minister’s Brexit plans, which could last 15 years because of “lower trade intensity”.



    At a briefing, Mr Chote said the OBR was unable to assess the impact of the coronavirus, but he said he expected only “a short-term hit to economic activity”.


    The OBR also warned that – despite economic stagnation ever since the 2016 Brexit vote – most of the negative impact on productivity was still to come.




    “We believe that around one third of the long-run hit to productivity from Brexit has already happened, that another third is likely to come over the forecast period and the rest comes through beyond our forecast horizon.”


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-debt-budget-spending-boris-johnson-rushi-sunak-gordon-brown-a9395326.html



    Key Points
    PM expected to approve ‘delay’ phase to stem Covid-19
    Dominic Raab tests negative for virus – as more Tory MPs self-isolate
    Households ‘set to lose £575 a year’ amid recession warnings
    No evidence for Trump’s coronavirus travel ban, says Sunak



    Households will lose almost £600 a year, says think tank

    Every household will suffer a £575 annual blow due to the slump in the economic growth forecast, even before the impact of the coronavirus is factored in, a respected think-tank has warned.

    The Resolution Foundation said the GDP markdown from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) financial watchdog was both “incredibly grim and yet still unbelievably optimistic”.

    The OBR warned that a “recession this year is quite possible” if the virus causes “widespread economic disruption”, and predicted falling growth even before the coronavirus impact is reflected.

    In its overnight assessment, the Resolution Foundation living standards think-tank delivered a stark warning over the OBR assessment, warning of “more difficult budgets ahead” for the Chancellor.

    Chief executive Torsten Bell said: “The OBR managed to deliver an incredibly grim, and yet still unbelievably optimistic, pre-pandemic markdown to the UK’s economic outlook - dealing a £600 a year hit to every household in Britain.

    “In reality, once we take the economic impact of coronavirus into account, this is the weakest official growth outlook on record.”






  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,894
    Britain must follow ‘rules of the game’ if it wants access to our markets, EU president warns
    Ursula von der Leyen says UK must make up its mind




    Britain must follow the “rules of the game” if it wants tariff-free trade with the EU from the end of this year, the European Commission president has warned.
    In a press conference to mark the end of her first 100 days in office Ursula von der Leyen said that the UK had to “make up its mind” whether it wanted to keep access.

    Brexit trade talks kicked off last week in Brussels but stumbled on the issue of whether the UK would stay aligned with some EU rules as part of a “level playing field” of regulations.



    EU countries are worried that the UK will deregulate and undercut the EU on standards, and say tariff-free trade can only continue if the UK signs up to certain standards on the environment, workers’ rights, state aid and product standards.

    “It will be important that the UK makes up its mind – the closer they want to have access to the single market, the more they have to play by the rules that are the rule of the single market.

    “If this is not the UK’s choice then they will be more distant and it will be more difficult for the UK to access the single market. So I think it’s up to the UK within these negotiations to think about the trade-offs they want to take into account.”
    Speaking last week at the close of the first round of talks the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said the UK had to respect the EU’s “independence” and sovereignty and the fact that the bloc would impose its own conditions on continued trade.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-eu-uk-von-der-leyen-barnier-single-market-a9387596.html
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