Theresa May's Brexit deal will damage UK public finances, think tank warns
Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal will make it harder to fund the UK’s public services by reducing tax revenues, according to a think tank report published today. UK in A Changing Europe, in a new modelling exercise published on Tuesday, calculates that the prime minister’s deal – a 21-month transition followed by a free trade deal with the EU – would hit fiscal revenues by between 0.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent of GDP in the long term. That would easily outweigh any benefit to the public finances from no longer paying a net contribution to the EU budget.
Whilst it is refreshing that this thread has been mainly kept on topic about Brexit and the benefits ( or otherwise) of staying in the EU, it would be interesting to get an opposing view from those that feel being out is the better option ( combined with relevant facts as Haysie has done)
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
Whilst it is refreshing that this thread has been mainly kept on topic about Brexit and the benefits ( or otherwise) of staying in the EU, it would be interesting to get an opposing view from those that feel being out is the better option ( combined with relevant facts as Haysie has done)
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
This made me laugh , there are no facts here , just a load of quotes from and links to media articles containing supposition and conjecture . Todays gem , from a think tank . The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
Whilst it is refreshing that this thread has been mainly kept on topic about Brexit and the benefits ( or otherwise) of staying in the EU, it would be interesting to get an opposing view from those that feel being out is the better option ( combined with relevant facts as Haysie has done)
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
If I had voted for Brexit, I think I would struggle to present an argument on why I had done so, as we haven't yet started to negotiate what we are going to get. Therefore the reasons for voting to leave may not ever materialise, and you wouldn't currently know if they were likely to, or not.
For instance, if I was concerned about immigration, I might be happy we are leaving, but if we end up with a Norway deal, we will have to accept Freedom of Movement.
So far, we have a Withdrawal Agreement, a Backstop, and that's it. It is going to take years to negotiate a trade deal. The plan was for negotiations to have ended by March next year, but they are only just beginning.
I watched Newsnight last night. This included 5 MPs, and some members of the general public, putting forward their views.
A Tory supporting the deal. Another Tory preferring no deal. Another Tory, Nicky Morgan, supporting the PM, but amazingly pitching the benefits of a Norway deal, as her plan B. The Labour MP looking for a General Election. The Lib Dem preferring a second referendum.
The general public were equally divided.
Where I have seen members of the general public being interviewed in the last couple of weeks, they have had little that was constructive to say about Brexit, and have mainly confined their comments as to whether or not they are happy with the Prime Minister, and that she should just get on with it.
It seems to me that any deal we get will adversely affect our economy, will give us no say in the rules that will affect us, and not necessarily make those that wanted to leave any happier.
The recently resigned Brexit Secretary has opined that he would prefer to stay in the EU, than support the deal we are about to do.
I am amazed that a Government could inflict this act of self harm, in the name of Democracy.
How could everyone have known what they were voting for in The Referendum, when we still haven't got a clue what Leaving will mean.
Whilst it is refreshing that this thread has been mainly kept on topic about Brexit and the benefits ( or otherwise) of staying in the EU, it would be interesting to get an opposing view from those that feel being out is the better option ( combined with relevant facts as Haysie has done)
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
This made me laugh , there are no facts here , just a load of quotes from and links to media articles containing supposition and conjecture . Todays gem , from a think tank . The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
I’m pleased that you have a sense of humour, I’m guessing you voted remain as you say we don’t know what it will be like post Brexit, and being the intellectual you are, it would be rather silly to vote for something you don’t know the result of how it would pan out.
Whilst it is refreshing that this thread has been mainly kept on topic about Brexit and the benefits ( or otherwise) of staying in the EU, it would be interesting to get an opposing view from those that feel being out is the better option ( combined with relevant facts as Haysie has done)
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
This made me laugh , there are no facts here , just a load of quotes from and links to media articles containing supposition and conjecture . Todays gem , from a think tank . The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
I’m pleased that you have a sense of humour, I’m guessing you voted remain as you say we don’t know what it will be like post Brexit, and being the intellectual you are, it would be rather silly to vote for something you don’t know the result of how it would pan out.
You should probably stay away from guessing , I actually refrained from voting simply because whatever anyone said from either side , I wasn't sure how it would affect us . Please feel free to carry on with your assumptions !
I guess you prefer to be the type who don’t vote and then comment on how wrong people are, on both sides, fair enough.
Wrong assumption again , but please feel free to point out where exactly on this thread I have made any comment on the rights or wrongs of brexit views . My problem is this thread isn't a debate , it's mainly one person finding media supposition to back up his views and you amongst others calling these articles FACTS ! You seem to love making assumptions , but I've yet to see you back these ridiculous statements up with cold hard facts .
Whilst it is refreshing that this thread has been mainly kept on topic about Brexit and the benefits ( or otherwise) of staying in the EU, it would be interesting to get an opposing view from those that feel being out is the better option ( combined with relevant facts as Haysie has done)
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
This made me laugh , there are no facts here , just a load of quotes from and links to media articles containing supposition and conjecture . Todays gem , from a think tank . The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
What makes me laugh is that you have the nerve to call me arrogant.
We currently have full access to The Single Market. We will lose at least some of this access at the end of the Transition period. We also lose access to free trade deals with 65 countries, that we currently have, on leaving.
We leave in March and the current plan is to move into a Transition Period, until Dec 2020. We will then either extend the Transition Period maybe for a further 2 years, or move into The Backstop. We would remain in The Backstop, or in a Transition Period until the deal is done. The Backstop keeps us in the Customs Union.
The EU deal with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, and 2 years to implement.
While we are in the Transition period, and or The Customs Union, we are unable to negotiate our own free trade deals.
The majority of forecasts show us as being worse off, in respect of every Brexit outcome, including those prepared by this Governments own Treasury Dept. The reason for this is surely obvious.
Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.
In addition to this, Services which make up 80% of our economy, will not be included in the negotiations.
Whilst it is refreshing that this thread has been mainly kept on topic about Brexit and the benefits ( or otherwise) of staying in the EU, it would be interesting to get an opposing view from those that feel being out is the better option ( combined with relevant facts as Haysie has done)
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
This made me laugh , there are no facts here , just a load of quotes from and links to media articles containing supposition and conjecture . Todays gem , from a think tank . The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
What makes me laugh is that you have the nerve to call me arrogant.
We currently have full access to The Single Market. We will lose at least some of this access at the end of the Transition period. We also lose access to free trade deals with 65 countries, that we currently have, on leaving.
We leave in March and the current plan is to move into a Transition Period, until Dec 2020. We will then either extend the Transition Period maybe for a further 2 years, or move into The Backstop. We would remain in The Backstop, or in a Transition Period until the deal is done. The Backstop keeps us in the Customs Union.
The EU deal with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, and 2 years to implement.
While we are in the Transition period, and or The Customs Union, we are unable to negotiate our own free trade deals.
The majority of forecasts show us as being worse off, in respect of every Brexit outcome, including those prepared by this Governments own Treasury Dept. The reason for this is surely obvious.
Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.
In addition to this, Services which make up 80% of our economy, will not be included in the negotiations.
Umm, where have I suggested that ?. I think you need to brush up on your reading skills . I have already confirmed that I didn't vote , because it was and still is impossible to say whether in the years to come , brexit will be a good or bad thing for our country . You are arrogant , because you are not prepared to hear opposing viewpoints to yours , without " shouting " them down and dismissing them as nonsense . I'm quite prepared to listen to both sides of the argument for Brexit , that is not evident on this thread and isn't likely to be !
Now I don't know if that still applies in the draft , perhaps if not you can evidence your statement .
Its nothing to do with the Single Market, it is the Customs Union.
Still the UK could opt to leave the single market but stay in the customs union, but that does mean it couldn't negotiate free trade deals with other countries, the EU does that.
Whilst it is refreshing that this thread has been mainly kept on topic about Brexit and the benefits ( or otherwise) of staying in the EU, it would be interesting to get an opposing view from those that feel being out is the better option ( combined with relevant facts as Haysie has done)
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
This made me laugh , there are no facts here , just a load of quotes from and links to media articles containing supposition and conjecture . Todays gem , from a think tank . The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
What makes me laugh is that you have the nerve to call me arrogant.
We currently have full access to The Single Market. We will lose at least some of this access at the end of the Transition period. We also lose access to free trade deals with 65 countries, that we currently have, on leaving.
We leave in March and the current plan is to move into a Transition Period, until Dec 2020. We will then either extend the Transition Period maybe for a further 2 years, or move into The Backstop. We would remain in The Backstop, or in a Transition Period until the deal is done. The Backstop keeps us in the Customs Union.
The EU deal with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, and 2 years to implement.
While we are in the Transition period, and or The Customs Union, we are unable to negotiate our own free trade deals.
The majority of forecasts show us as being worse off, in respect of every Brexit outcome, including those prepared by this Governments own Treasury Dept. The reason for this is surely obvious.
Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.
In addition to this, Services which make up 80% of our economy, will not be included in the negotiations.
Umm, where have I suggested that ?. I think you need to brush up on your reading skills . I have already confirmed that I didn't vote , because it was and still is impossible to say whether in the years to come , brexit will be a good or bad thing for our country . You are arrogant , because you are not prepared to hear opposing viewpoints to yours , without " shouting " them down and dismissing them as nonsense . I'm quite prepared to listen to both sides of the argument for Brexit , that is not evident on this thread and isn't likely to be !
You called me Mr Arrogant in the chatbox the other night. So its more about your memory skills rather than my reading skills. Then you say where have I suggested that? And then do it again in the same post? I am very happy to listen to and welcome opposing views. I am not sure how you shout on a forum. Unless you are referring to the use of capitals as in your friends MORON post the other day. Perhaps that is shouting.
Lets help you out here , you said to me " Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy." and I responded with the comment , that I wasn't suggesting anything (prove otherwise ! ) and you need to brush up on your reading skills . . But you already know this and are being typically obtuse as indeed you are with the shout comment . Quite right as well with my chatbox comment , it's evident for everyone to see in this thread and others ..still not in the same league as calling people morons though is it ?
Now I don't know if that still applies in the draft , perhaps if not you can evidence your statement .
When we are in the Transition period we will remain in the Single Market, and Customs Union even though we will have left the EU in March. Included in the financial settlement is the equivalent of our annual contribution for this period.
The purpose of it is for businesses to be able to continue, with no change to their trading rules, rather than seeing new rules, and regulations in March, and then further changes when the trade deal is done. As a result of this businesses will just have to comply with one set of rule changes.
So while we are involved in either the Transition period, or the Backstop, we will be in the Customs Union, and therefore unable to sign our own free trade deals with other countries.
The negotiations are likely to run for years to come, and we wont leave the Customs Union until the negotiations are completed.
Beyond the transition any trade deal with the EU, will involve us being aligned with EU standards and regulations. This in itself will make some trade deals impossible. For instance some experts are suggesting that in any trade deal with the USA, they would insist on selling us agricultural products. As some of these products clearly don't comply with EU standards, to do both would not be possible.
The three products most commonly referred to are chlorine washed chicken, hormone fed beef, and gm crops. None of them sound appetising, and don't match EU standards which we currently comply with.
Now I don't know if that still applies in the draft , perhaps if not you can evidence your statement .
When we are in the Transition period we will remain in the Single Market, and Customs Union even though we will have left the EU in March. Included in the financial settlement is the equivalent of our annual contribution for this period.
The purpose of it is for businesses to be able to continue, with no change to their trading rules, rather than seeing new rules, and regulations in March, and then further changes when the trade deal is done. As a result of this businesses will just have to comply with one set of rule changes.
So while we are involved in either the Transition period, or the Backstop, we will be in the Customs Union, and therefore unable to sign our own free trade deals with other countries.
The negotiations are likely to run for years to come, and we wont leave the Customs Union until the negotiations are completed.
Beyond the transition any trade deal with the EU, will involve us being aligned with EU standards and regulations. This in itself will make some trade deals impossible. For instance some experts are suggesting that in any trade deal with the USA, they would insist on selling us agricultural products. As some of these products clearly don't comply with EU standards, to do both would not be possible.
The three products most commonly referred to are chlorine washed chicken, hormone fed beef, and gm crops. None of them sound appetising, and don't match EU standards which we currently comply with.
And that all seems fair enough , if accurate . You haven't mentioned the option of coming out of both the customs union and the single market , I believe ( happy to be corrected ) , that in order to come out of the single market we would be required to broker a trade deal with the E.U. ? Once again for clarification , I'm not advocating any of these options would be good or bad for the U.K.
Lets help you out here , you said to me "The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit . and I responded with the comment , that I wasn't suggesting anything (prove otherwise ! ) and you need to brush up on your reading skills . . But you already know this and are being typically obtuse as indeed you are with the shout comment . Quite right as well with my chatbox comment , it's evident for everyone to see in this thread and others ..still not in the same league as calling people morons though is it ?
This is what you said
The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
This was my response.
Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.
Lets help you out here , you said to me "The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit . and I responded with the comment , that I wasn't suggesting anything (prove otherwise ! ) and you need to brush up on your reading skills . . But you already know this and are being typically obtuse as indeed you are with the shout comment . Quite right as well with my chatbox comment , it's evident for everyone to see in this thread and others ..still not in the same league as calling people morons though is it ?
This is what you said
The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
This was my response.
Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.
Exactly ! Long time since I got an O level in English , but don't see anything in my post where I'm suggesting anything . Just stating a fact that no one really knows what it's going to be like post brexit , one of the main reasons being we don't know exactly what sort of deal is going to be brokered . If you need me to explain the clearly typed word any further just ask .
Comments
Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal will make it harder to fund the UK’s public services by reducing tax revenues, according to a think tank report published today.
UK in A Changing Europe, in a new modelling exercise published on Tuesday, calculates that the prime minister’s deal – a 21-month transition followed by a free trade deal with the EU – would hit fiscal revenues by between 0.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent of GDP in the long term.
That would easily outweigh any benefit to the public finances from no longer paying a net contribution to the EU budget.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/theresa-may-apos-brexit-deal-000437959.html
It’s quite easy to say better out, or better in, but even listening to politicians and the news it must be very difficult for some people to weigh up the benefits of either way even at this late stage, goodness knows what people based their vote on.
The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
If I had voted for Brexit, I think I would struggle to present an argument on why I had done so, as we haven't yet started to negotiate what we are going to get. Therefore the reasons for voting to leave may not ever materialise, and you wouldn't currently know if they were likely to, or not.
For instance, if I was concerned about immigration, I might be happy we are leaving, but if we end up with a Norway deal, we will have to accept Freedom of Movement.
So far, we have a Withdrawal Agreement, a Backstop, and that's it. It is going to take years to negotiate a trade deal. The plan was for negotiations to have ended by March next year, but they are only just beginning.
I watched Newsnight last night. This included 5 MPs, and some members of the general public, putting forward their views.
A Tory supporting the deal.
Another Tory preferring no deal.
Another Tory, Nicky Morgan, supporting the PM, but amazingly pitching the benefits of a Norway deal, as her plan B.
The Labour MP looking for a General Election.
The Lib Dem preferring a second referendum.
The general public were equally divided.
Where I have seen members of the general public being interviewed in the last couple of weeks, they have had little that was constructive to say about Brexit, and have mainly confined their comments as to whether or not they are happy with the Prime Minister, and that she should just get on with it.
It seems to me that any deal we get will adversely affect our economy, will give us no say in the rules that will affect us, and not necessarily make those that wanted to leave any happier.
The recently resigned Brexit Secretary has opined that he would prefer to stay in the EU, than support the deal we are about to do.
I am amazed that a Government could inflict this act of self harm, in the name of Democracy.
How could everyone have known what they were voting for in The Referendum, when we still haven't got a clue what Leaving will mean.
We currently have full access to The Single Market. We will lose at least some of this access at the end of the Transition period. We also lose access to free trade deals with 65 countries, that we currently have, on leaving.
We leave in March and the current plan is to move into a Transition Period, until Dec 2020. We will then either extend the Transition Period maybe for a further 2 years, or move into The Backstop. We would remain in The Backstop, or in a Transition Period until the deal is done. The Backstop keeps us in the Customs Union.
The EU deal with Canada took 7 years to negotiate, and 2 years to implement.
While we are in the Transition period, and or The Customs Union, we are unable to negotiate our own free trade deals.
The majority of forecasts show us as being worse off, in respect of every Brexit outcome, including those prepared by this Governments own Treasury Dept. The reason for this is surely obvious.
Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.
In addition to this, Services which make up 80% of our economy, will not be included in the negotiations.
You are arrogant , because you are not prepared to hear opposing viewpoints to yours , without " shouting " them down and dismissing them as nonsense . I'm quite prepared to listen to both sides of the argument for Brexit , that is not evident on this thread and isn't likely to be !
Now I don't know if that still applies in the draft , perhaps if not you can evidence your statement .
Still the UK could opt to leave the single market but stay in the customs union, but that does mean it couldn't negotiate free trade deals with other countries, the EU does that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36083664
Christiaan Barnard,
Regard the proposed Patient Mrs May her Heart's not in it, replacement Heart would not solve problem.
Brain transplant would.
Then you say where have I suggested that? And then do it again in the same post?
I am very happy to listen to and welcome opposing views.
I am not sure how you shout on a forum. Unless you are referring to the use of capitals as in your friends MORON post the other day. Perhaps that is shouting.
The purpose of it is for businesses to be able to continue, with no change to their trading rules, rather than seeing new rules, and regulations in March, and then further changes when the trade deal is done. As a result of this businesses will just have to comply with one set of rule changes.
So while we are involved in either the Transition period, or the Backstop, we will be in the Customs Union, and therefore unable to sign our own free trade deals with other countries.
The negotiations are likely to run for years to come, and we wont leave the Customs Union until the negotiations are completed.
Beyond the transition any trade deal with the EU, will involve us being aligned with EU standards and regulations. This in itself will make some trade deals impossible. For instance some experts are suggesting that in any trade deal with the USA, they would insist on selling us agricultural products. As some of these products clearly don't comply with EU standards, to do both would not be possible.
The three products most commonly referred to are chlorine washed chicken, hormone fed beef, and gm crops. None of them sound appetising, and don't match EU standards which we currently comply with.
The fact of the matter is no one really knows what it's going to be like in the U.K. post brexit .
This was my response.
Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.