You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
We will have to agree to disagree again. If the odds are correct, and they usually are. The Tories will win. So any bets on Starmer lose. That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
We will have to agree to disagree again. If the odds are correct, and they usually are. The Tories will win. So any bets on Starmer lose. That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
You keep thinking you have proved your case. While proving that a 3/1 shot loses more than it wins.
I will keep laughing. Knowing 3/1 wins more often than 6/1.
You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
We will have to agree to disagree again. If the odds are correct, and they usually are. The Tories will win. So any bets on Starmer lose. That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
You keep thinking you have proved your case. While proving that a 3/1 shot loses more than it wins.
I will keep laughing. Knowing 3/1 wins more often than 6/1.
You clearly dont understand the point I was making.
You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
We will have to agree to disagree again. If the odds are correct, and they usually are. The Tories will win. So any bets on Starmer lose. That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
You keep thinking you have proved your case. While proving that a 3/1 shot loses more than it wins.
I will keep laughing. Knowing 3/1 wins more often than 6/1.
If you are referring to Starmer to be next PM, and Truss to be the next Tory leader, I would take issue, as there are conditions attached to the Starmer bet. If it was 3/1 with a run, I would agree, but you might not get a run. Whereas the Tory leadership bet is fairly straightforward, whoever takes over from Boris wins.
Heres another anomaly. The odds on Starmer are 3/1 to become the next PM. He can only do this if Labour win the election. The odds on Labour winning the election are 5/4. Isnt it the same bet? Unless you think he is going to drop dead before the election. If you thought Labour were going to win, why wouldnt you bet Starmer for next PM, rather than Labour to win?
You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
We will have to agree to disagree again. If the odds are correct, and they usually are. The Tories will win. So any bets on Starmer lose. That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
You keep thinking you have proved your case. While proving that a 3/1 shot loses more than it wins.
I will keep laughing. Knowing 3/1 wins more often than 6/1.
If you are referring to Starmer to be next PM, and Truss to be the next Tory leader, I would take issue, as there are conditions attached to the Starmer bet. If it was 3/1 with a run, I would agree, but you might not get a run. Whereas the Tory leadership bet is fairly straightforward, whoever takes over from Boris wins.
Heres another anomaly. The odds on Starmer are 3/1 to become the next PM. He can only do this if Labour win the election. The odds on Labour winning the election are 5/4. Isnt it the same bet? Unless you think he is going to drop dead before the election. If you thought Labour were going to win, why wouldnt you bet Starmer for next PM, rather than Labour to win?
Not even nearly true.
1. Johnson may resign/be forced out before the next election 2. Johnson may drop dead before the next election 3. Starmer may be replaced as Labour leader either before the next election, or before he becomes PM 4. There may be a hung parliament. In that instance, it is overwhelmingly likely that the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and Sinn Fein/SDLP would all support a coalition with Labour, and Starmer becomes PM
The likeliest of those is Number 4. Then 1.
So-No. They are not the same bet. And why they have very different odds.
You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
We will have to agree to disagree again. If the odds are correct, and they usually are. The Tories will win. So any bets on Starmer lose. That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
You keep thinking you have proved your case. While proving that a 3/1 shot loses more than it wins.
I will keep laughing. Knowing 3/1 wins more often than 6/1.
If you are referring to Starmer to be next PM, and Truss to be the next Tory leader, I would take issue, as there are conditions attached to the Starmer bet. If it was 3/1 with a run, I would agree, but you might not get a run. Whereas the Tory leadership bet is fairly straightforward, whoever takes over from Boris wins.
Heres another anomaly. The odds on Starmer are 3/1 to become the next PM. He can only do this if Labour win the election. The odds on Labour winning the election are 5/4. Isnt it the same bet? Unless you think he is going to drop dead before the election. If you thought Labour were going to win, why wouldnt you bet Starmer for next PM, rather than Labour to win?
Not even nearly true.
1. Johnson may resign/be forced out before the next election 2. Johnson may drop dead before the next election 3. Starmer may be replaced as Labour leader either before the next election, or before he becomes PM 4. There may be a hung parliament. In that instance, it is overwhelmingly likely that the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and Sinn Fein/SDLP would all support a coalition with Labour, and Starmer becomes PM
The likeliest of those is Number 4. Then 1.
So-No. They are not the same bet. And why they have very different odds.
In the event of 1 or 2 Starmer loses. Which was the point I have been making. 3 is extremely unlikely. 4 irrelevant because the bet on the election is on who wins the most seats.
You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
We will have to agree to disagree again. If the odds are correct, and they usually are. The Tories will win. So any bets on Starmer lose. That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
You keep thinking you have proved your case. While proving that a 3/1 shot loses more than it wins.
I will keep laughing. Knowing 3/1 wins more often than 6/1.
If you are referring to Starmer to be next PM, and Truss to be the next Tory leader, I would take issue, as there are conditions attached to the Starmer bet. If it was 3/1 with a run, I would agree, but you might not get a run. Whereas the Tory leadership bet is fairly straightforward, whoever takes over from Boris wins.
Heres another anomaly. The odds on Starmer are 3/1 to become the next PM. He can only do this if Labour win the election. The odds on Labour winning the election are 5/4. Isnt it the same bet? Unless you think he is going to drop dead before the election. If you thought Labour were going to win, why wouldnt you bet Starmer for next PM, rather than Labour to win?
Not even nearly true.
1. Johnson may resign/be forced out before the next election 2. Johnson may drop dead before the next election 3. Starmer may be replaced as Labour leader either before the next election, or before he becomes PM 4. There may be a hung parliament. In that instance, it is overwhelmingly likely that the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and Sinn Fein/SDLP would all support a coalition with Labour, and Starmer becomes PM
The likeliest of those is Number 4. Then 1.
So-No. They are not the same bet. And why they have very different odds.
In the event of 1 or 2 Starmer loses. Which was the point I have been making. 3 is extremely unlikely. 4 irrelevant because the bet on the election is on who wins the most seats.
Have you never followed politics? Ever?
1/2 show occasions when Starmer may win the next election, but still not be PM. I'm not necessarily expecting you to keep up with my arguments. But I do expect you to at least keep up with yours. That is why 1 is 5/4, and the other is 3/1. I even put your argument in bold. So you could see your argument.
And you think 4 is irrelevant? Really?
So-if the Cons get 280 seats at the next election, Labour get 260, and the SNP and the other parties I mentioned get 75 between them, who do you think is going to be the next PM?
You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
We will have to agree to disagree again. If the odds are correct, and they usually are. The Tories will win. So any bets on Starmer lose. That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
You keep thinking you have proved your case. While proving that a 3/1 shot loses more than it wins.
I will keep laughing. Knowing 3/1 wins more often than 6/1.
If you are referring to Starmer to be next PM, and Truss to be the next Tory leader, I would take issue, as there are conditions attached to the Starmer bet. If it was 3/1 with a run, I would agree, but you might not get a run. Whereas the Tory leadership bet is fairly straightforward, whoever takes over from Boris wins.
Heres another anomaly. The odds on Starmer are 3/1 to become the next PM. He can only do this if Labour win the election. The odds on Labour winning the election are 5/4. Isnt it the same bet? Unless you think he is going to drop dead before the election. If you thought Labour were going to win, why wouldnt you bet Starmer for next PM, rather than Labour to win?
Not even nearly true.
1. Johnson may resign/be forced out before the next election 2. Johnson may drop dead before the next election 3. Starmer may be replaced as Labour leader either before the next election, or before he becomes PM 4. There may be a hung parliament. In that instance, it is overwhelmingly likely that the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and Sinn Fein/SDLP would all support a coalition with Labour, and Starmer becomes PM
The likeliest of those is Number 4. Then 1.
So-No. They are not the same bet. And why they have very different odds.
In the event of 1 or 2 Starmer loses. Which was the point I have been making. 3 is extremely unlikely. 4 irrelevant because the bet on the election is on who wins the most seats.
Have you never followed politics? Ever?
1/2 show occasions when Starmer may win the next election, but still not be PM. I'm not necessarily expecting you to keep up with my arguments. But I do expect you to at least keep up with yours. That is why 1 is 5/4, and the other is 3/1. I even put your argument in bold. So you could see your argument.
And you think 4 is irrelevant? Really?
So-if the Cons get 280 seats at the next election, Labour get 260, and the SNP and the other parties I mentioned get 75 between them, who do you think is going to be the next PM?
It is most certainly not irrelevant as to the identity of the next PM.
Both Con and Lab minority governments seem fairly likely. In a Con one, it is very likely that the divisive Johnson will go. New PM
But in a Lab Minority Govt, it is far from certain Starmer would be PM-there would be all sorts of horse trading. For a start, would he agree to a new Scot Indy vote? The biggest party don't always form the Government, or get to pick the PM.
Nadine Dorries's defence of Boris Johnson completely backfired
Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries · Apr 12, 2022 PM has been clear about what happened on 19th June 2020 & offered a full apology. It was a brief gathering in the Cabinet Room, less than 10 minutes during a busy working day. PM is at his best when delivering on the priorities of the British people which he will continue to do. 𝓙𝓸𝓱𝓷 𝓲𝓷 𝓑𝓾𝓬𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓼𝓽𝓲 🇷🇴🇪🇺🇬🇧 @JohninBucuresti So Boris Johnson clearly understood the rules about parties. He told this seven-year old that she was doing the right thing by NOT having a party. Wouldn't it be wonderful if this letter from a seven-year old brought the PM to his senses now. RESIGN. Boris Johnson @BorisJohnson
United Kingdom government official Josephine sets a great example to us all by postponing her birthday party until we have sent coronavirus packing.
Together we can beat this. In the meantime let's all wish her happy birthday (twice) whilst washing our hands. #BeLikeJosephine #StayHomeSaveLives
Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV The police say the PM was at the party between 1400 and 1500 - i.e. as long as an hour. Nadine Dorries is repeating the PM's line that it was only 10 minutes. Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries PM has been clear about what happened on 19th June 2020 & offered a full apology. It was a brief gathering in the Cabinet Room, less than 10 minutes during a busy working day. PM is at his best when delivering on the priorities of the British people which he will continue to do.
Comments
If the odds are correct, and they usually are.
The Tories will win.
So any bets on Starmer lose.
That is assuming Boris hangs on, otherwise you dont even get a run for your money, and lose before the election.
Now:
Hypocrite..
While proving that a 3/1 shot loses more than it wins.
I will keep laughing. Knowing 3/1 wins more often than 6/1.
But it is worth pointing out he was not breaking any law there.
That was November 2021. When Welsh legal guidelines were to be masked indoors except where food and drink being served.
Which there were. It is no different to you being unmasked in a pub.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tory-mp-wants-no10-to-get-a-bar-so-aides-don-t-have-to-carry-suitcases-of-wine/ar-AAW9ggE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f446e40fd7f24b6bb6326687d64b2518
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tory-mp-fabricant-defends-pm-by-claiming-many-nurses-and-teachers-also-broke-law/ar-AAW9FzE?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f446e40fd7f24b6bb6326687d64b2518
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-michael-fabricant-strips-off-for-naked-bike-ride-11532526
If it was 3/1 with a run, I would agree, but you might not get a run.
Whereas the Tory leadership bet is fairly straightforward, whoever takes over from Boris wins.
Heres another anomaly.
The odds on Starmer are 3/1 to become the next PM.
He can only do this if Labour win the election.
The odds on Labour winning the election are 5/4.
Isnt it the same bet?
Unless you think he is going to drop dead before the election.
If you thought Labour were going to win, why wouldnt you bet Starmer for next PM, rather than Labour to win?
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/jacob-rees-moggs-defence-boris-094953047.html
1. Johnson may resign/be forced out before the next election
2. Johnson may drop dead before the next election
3. Starmer may be replaced as Labour leader either before the next election, or before he becomes PM
4. There may be a hung parliament. In that instance, it is overwhelmingly likely that the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid and Sinn Fein/SDLP would all support a coalition with Labour, and Starmer becomes PM
The likeliest of those is Number 4. Then 1.
So-No. They are not the same bet. And why they have very different odds.
In the event of 1 or 2 Starmer loses.
Which was the point I have been making.
3 is extremely unlikely.
4 irrelevant because the bet on the election is on who wins the most seats.
1/2 show occasions when Starmer may win the next election, but still not be PM.
I'm not necessarily expecting you to keep up with my arguments. But I do expect you to at least keep up with yours. That is why 1 is 5/4, and the other is 3/1. I even put your argument in bold. So you could see your argument.
And you think 4 is irrelevant? Really?
So-if the Cons get 280 seats at the next election, Labour get 260, and the SNP and the other parties I mentioned get 75 between them, who do you think is going to be the next PM?
General Election Most Seats Betting Odds
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats
Both Con and Lab minority governments seem fairly likely.
In a Con one, it is very likely that the divisive Johnson will go. New PM
But in a Lab Minority Govt, it is far from certain Starmer would be PM-there would be all sorts of horse trading. For a start, would he agree to a new Scot Indy vote? The biggest party don't always form the Government, or get to pick the PM.
Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
·
Apr 12, 2022
PM has been clear about what happened on 19th June 2020 & offered a full apology. It was a brief gathering in the Cabinet Room, less than 10 minutes during a busy working day. PM is at his best when delivering on the priorities of the British people which he will continue to do.
𝓙𝓸𝓱𝓷 𝓲𝓷 𝓑𝓾𝓬𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓼𝓽𝓲 🇷🇴🇪🇺🇬🇧
@JohninBucuresti
So Boris Johnson clearly understood the rules about parties. He told this seven-year old that she was doing the right thing by NOT having a party. Wouldn't it be wonderful if this letter from a seven-year old brought the PM to his senses now. RESIGN.
Boris Johnson
@BorisJohnson
United Kingdom government official
Josephine sets a great example to us all by postponing her birthday party until we have sent coronavirus packing.
Together we can beat this. In the meantime let's all wish her happy birthday (twice) whilst washing our hands. #BeLikeJosephine #StayHomeSaveLives
Nadine Dorries logging on to defend Boris
Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
The police say the PM was at the party between 1400 and 1500 - i.e. as long as an hour. Nadine Dorries is repeating the PM's line that it was only 10 minutes.
Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
PM has been clear about what happened on 19th June 2020 & offered a full apology. It was a brief gathering in the Cabinet Room, less than 10 minutes during a busy working day. PM is at his best when delivering on the priorities of the British people which he will continue to do.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/nadine-dorries-s-defence-of-boris-johnson-completely-backfired/ar-AAWbto3?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=038bc31246ff4b6b88ba5257c7fbe585