More than half of voters say Boris should QUIT after Partygate fine: PM, Carrie and Rishi pay up and apologise over No10 birthday bash but Tories refuse to trigger no-confidence vote despite 75% of public saying Johnson lied over breaking lockdown rules
Mr Johnson today became the first serving Prime Minister in history to be penalised for law-breaking after receiving a fixed-penalty notice (FPN) for attending a Cabinet room birthday party arranged by his wife. Mr Johnson, Carrie and Chancellor Rishi Sunak - who all attended the event - are among a tranche of 30 more FPNs notices dished out by Scotland Yard this afternoon to people who broke lockdown rules. Tonight Mr Johnson, speaking from Chequers, refused to step down, and insisted that at the time he had not believed he was breaking the rules - rules that he introduced. He insisted he had only attended for 10 minutes between a heavy rota of meetings and events on his 56th birthday. He also refused to rule out receiving more fines for other events in future. The PM told broadcasters: 'The best thing I can do, having paid the fine, is focus on the job in hand... I feel an even greater sense of obligation to deliver on the priorities of the British people.' Both Mr Johnson and his wife have paid their fines, believed to be £50, and apologised for the party on June 19, 2020. He told reporters tonight: 'I have to say, in all frankness, at that time it did not occur to me that this might have been a breach of the rules.'
Rishi Sunak 'had to be talked out of resigning over Partygate penalty because it would have pressured PM do the same' - while Sue Gray report on scandal 'will be published next week and will NOT make comfortable reading' amid fears of MORE fines for Boris
The Met revealed on Tuesday that at least 30 more fixed penalty notices were issued over the saga, with a spokesman for Number 10 confirming Mr Johnson, his wife Carrie and Chancellor Rishi Sunak will be among the recipients. Calls for their resignations swelled in the hours after the announcement, with Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford and his Scottish counterpart Nicola Sturgeon among those calling for the country's two top parliamentarians to step down. Mr Sunak is said to have agonised for hours over whether to resign, spending the afternoon discussing his future with aides and allies, according to the Times. The Chancellor reportedly had to be talked out of leaving his post because it would have piled more pressure on the Prime Minister to follow suit, the paper said. Mr Johnson will also shortly have to contend with the final findings of the report into illegal Downing Street gatherings, with ministers expecting it to be published in time for the return of Parliament next week. The full dossier was due at the start of the year, but was put on ice after criminal investigations were launched by police into 12 lockdown parties, meaning only a heavily redacted summary was available initially. A source told the Telegraph: 'The delay in publishing the Sue Gray report has caused much frustration, but now that the bulk of the police investigation is complete, it is important the findings are made public as soon as possible so that everything can be as transparent as possible. The details in the report will make very uncomfortable reading for Boris Johnson and for a number of other key figures in Whitehall. The issuing of Fixed Penalty Notices by the police is certainly not the end of the matter.'
I dont understand these odds. Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM. Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election. Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election. If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
I dont understand these odds. Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM. Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election. Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election. If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
It is probably easiest to explain this as a Win Double. to win, your "horse" needs to win effectively 2 elections. The 1 at the polls (Party, not necessarily horse) and be leader of that Party.
The shortest odds on next Tory leader is Truss-widely available at 6/1. Whereas Starmer is probably 1/10 to be Labour Leader at the next election.
So-if Labour win the next election, or even lead a Coalition-Starmer wins. If Johnson wins, stays throughout and Labour wins a 2029 election-again, Starmer probably wins.
To win on Truss or Tugendhat or whoever, you need a change in PM before the next election OR a change after the Tories Win the next election. When, on the second part of the Win Double, there is no clear favourite as to next Tory Leader.
I dont understand these odds. Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM. Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election. Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election. If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
It is probably easiest to explain this as a Win Double. to win, your "horse" needs to win effectively 2 elections. The 1 at the polls (Party, not necessarily horse) and be leader of that Party.
The shortest odds on next Tory leader is Truss-widely available at 6/1. Whereas Starmer is probably 1/10 to be Labour Leader at the next election.
So-if Labour win the next election, or even lead a Coalition-Starmer wins. If Johnson wins, stays throughout and Labour wins a 2029 election-again, Starmer probably wins.
To win on Truss or Tugendhat or whoever, you need a change in PM before the next election OR a change after the Tories Win the next election. When, on the second part of the Win Double, there is no clear favourite as to next Tory Leader.
My point is this. Keir Starmer is the favourite to be our next PM. For Keir Starmer to become our next PM, the Tories have to lose the next general election. The Tories are odds on favourites to win. But not only that, you also have to rely on Boris not being ousted before the general election. So the bet on Starmer assumes 2 things, that Boris survives, and Labour wins the next general election. The odds say at this stage that Labour winning is unlikely, and Boris surviving is in the balance. Therefore the Starmer odds dont look good.
I am also not sure of the terms and conditions. If Boris hangs on, and wins the election, is he the next PM, or does the bet run on until he is replaced, either by leaving office or at some future general election?
I dont understand these odds. Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM. Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election. Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election. If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
It is probably easiest to explain this as a Win Double. to win, your "horse" needs to win effectively 2 elections. The 1 at the polls (Party, not necessarily horse) and be leader of that Party.
The shortest odds on next Tory leader is Truss-widely available at 6/1. Whereas Starmer is probably 1/10 to be Labour Leader at the next election.
So-if Labour win the next election, or even lead a Coalition-Starmer wins. If Johnson wins, stays throughout and Labour wins a 2029 election-again, Starmer probably wins.
To win on Truss or Tugendhat or whoever, you need a change in PM before the next election OR a change after the Tories Win the next election. When, on the second part of the Win Double, there is no clear favourite as to next Tory Leader.
Incidentally, I dont believe it is a win double, as you can bet Truss to become the next Tory leader, and still bet Labour to win the election. At whichever point Boris is ousted the next Tory leader becomes the next PM, whether that was before the election, or after an election win. I am not sure if they would let you bet a double on say Truss to be the next Tory leader, and the next PM. Because if Boris is ousted one will automatically follow the other. If they did allow it you could get 6/1 for both bets giving you a return of around £490 for a tenner, for what is essentially a 6/1 bet.
I dont understand these odds. Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM. Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election. Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election. If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
It is probably easiest to explain this as a Win Double. to win, your "horse" needs to win effectively 2 elections. The 1 at the polls (Party, not necessarily horse) and be leader of that Party.
The shortest odds on next Tory leader is Truss-widely available at 6/1. Whereas Starmer is probably 1/10 to be Labour Leader at the next election.
So-if Labour win the next election, or even lead a Coalition-Starmer wins. If Johnson wins, stays throughout and Labour wins a 2029 election-again, Starmer probably wins.
To win on Truss or Tugendhat or whoever, you need a change in PM before the next election OR a change after the Tories Win the next election. When, on the second part of the Win Double, there is no clear favourite as to next Tory Leader.
Incidentally, I dont believe it is a win double, as you can bet Truss to become the next Tory leader, and still bet Labour to win the election. At whichever point Boris is ousted the next Tory leader becomes the next PM, whether that was before the election, or after an election win.
You are confusing "the next PM will be a Tory" with "which Tory".
Putting it simply, you have an opinion. With no money riding on it. I have an opinion. With no money riding on it. The Bookies share my opinion. And are quite willing for you (and anyone else) to bet £100,000,000 that they are right.
I dont understand these odds. Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM. Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election. Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election. If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
It is probably easiest to explain this as a Win Double. to win, your "horse" needs to win effectively 2 elections. The 1 at the polls (Party, not necessarily horse) and be leader of that Party.
The shortest odds on next Tory leader is Truss-widely available at 6/1. Whereas Starmer is probably 1/10 to be Labour Leader at the next election.
So-if Labour win the next election, or even lead a Coalition-Starmer wins. If Johnson wins, stays throughout and Labour wins a 2029 election-again, Starmer probably wins.
To win on Truss or Tugendhat or whoever, you need a change in PM before the next election OR a change after the Tories Win the next election. When, on the second part of the Win Double, there is no clear favourite as to next Tory Leader.
Incidentally, I dont believe it is a win double, as you can bet Truss to become the next Tory leader, and still bet Labour to win the election. At whichever point Boris is ousted the next Tory leader becomes the next PM, whether that was before the election, or after an election win.
You are confusing "the next PM will be a Tory" with "which Tory".
Putting it simply, you have an opinion. With no money riding on it. I have an opinion. With no money riding on it. The Bookies share my opinion. And are quite willing for you (and anyone else) to bet £100,000,000 that they are right.
I dont understand these odds. Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM. Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election. Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election. If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
It is probably easiest to explain this as a Win Double. to win, your "horse" needs to win effectively 2 elections. The 1 at the polls (Party, not necessarily horse) and be leader of that Party.
The shortest odds on next Tory leader is Truss-widely available at 6/1. Whereas Starmer is probably 1/10 to be Labour Leader at the next election.
So-if Labour win the next election, or even lead a Coalition-Starmer wins. If Johnson wins, stays throughout and Labour wins a 2029 election-again, Starmer probably wins.
To win on Truss or Tugendhat or whoever, you need a change in PM before the next election OR a change after the Tories Win the next election. When, on the second part of the Win Double, there is no clear favourite as to next Tory Leader.
Incidentally, I dont believe it is a win double, as you can bet Truss to become the next Tory leader, and still bet Labour to win the election. At whichever point Boris is ousted the next Tory leader becomes the next PM, whether that was before the election, or after an election win.
You are confusing "the next PM will be a Tory" with "which Tory".
Putting it simply, you have an opinion. With no money riding on it. I have an opinion. With no money riding on it. The Bookies share my opinion. And are quite willing for you (and anyone else) to bet £100,000,000 that they are right.
Now-who do you think is right?
Is that supposed to make sense?
Yes. To pretty much everybody.
If you seriously believe that you understand how to set odds better than bookmakers, you should be wagering large sums on this.
For me, the interesting thing from an odds angle is both the timing of Johnson going (because they all do) and the knock-on effects.
I think there may be some serious value in a Caretaker Conservative PM. Because if Johnson leaves now, or there is a Minority Con Government, or he flounces off in 2028, there would need to be an old hand as the next PM. And the old-stagers are at seriously long odds.
I dont understand these odds. Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM. Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election. Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election. If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
It is probably easiest to explain this as a Win Double. to win, your "horse" needs to win effectively 2 elections. The 1 at the polls (Party, not necessarily horse) and be leader of that Party.
The bet on Keir Starmer is merely a bet on Labour to win the next general election. Unless of course you think he may be ousted beforehand. As far as the Tories are concerned, if Boris is ousted prior to the election the new leader automatically becomes the next PM. The bet on Starmer loses if Labour dont win, or if Boris is ousted. There are two different markets, one for next Tory leader, and another for next PM.
The shortest odds on next Tory leader is Truss-widely available at 6/1. Whereas Starmer is probably 1/10 to be Labour Leader at the next election.
Irrelevant. You can bet Truss to be next Tory leader, or next PM. Both are around 6/1. Next Tory leader would seem to be better value.
So-if Labour win the next election, or even lead a Coalition-Starmer wins. If Johnson wins, stays throughout and Labour wins a 2029 election-again, Starmer probably wins.
Unless of course Starmer resigns after losing in 2024.
To win on Truss or Tugendhat or whoever, you need a change in PM before the next election OR a change after the Tories Win the next election. When, on the second part of the Win Double, there is no clear favourite as to next Tory Leader.
There is no win double. If you bet the next Tory leader, that is resolved when Boris is replaced.
You dont seem to understand the point I was trying to make. Perhaps I didnt explain it clearly. The favourite to be our next PM is Kier Starmer. For this to happen Labour must win the next general election. Currently the Tories are odds on favourites to win. The Tories win and the bet on Starmer loses. In addition to this the bet on Starmer also loses if Boris gets ousted prior to the general election. Yet despite this he is still favourite. Forget horses and win doubles, the only way that the bet on Starmer wins is if Labour win the general election. And only if Boris survives until then.
The betting on the next Tory leader is completely different. You are just betting on who will succeed Boris whenever that may be. This may occur whenever Boris stands down. It is not reliant on election results or anything else.
For example if you thought this might be Truss. You could win if Boris was ousted pre election. If the Tories lost, and Boris stood down. Or if the Tories won and Boris stood down before or after the next election. He did say he was looking for 2 terms.
You explained it perfectly clearly. You just ignored the Maths.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
The point being, if the results are correlated, it greatly affects the odds of the double. Whereas the singles are not correlated.
Do you understand my point?
The question I am asking is why is Kier Starmer favourite to be our next PM?
He can only be come the next PM, if Labour win the next general election. He loses before we get to the general election, if Boris is ousted. And the Tories are odds on favourites to win anyway.
The difference between this bet, and the next Tory leader bet is clear. You could still win the bet if Boris is ousted, and if he isnt. You can still win the bet if the Tories win the next general election, and if they dont. You cant lose until Boris leaves office.
Comments
Mr Johnson today became the first serving Prime Minister in history to be penalised for law-breaking after receiving a fixed-penalty notice (FPN) for attending a Cabinet room birthday party arranged by his wife. Mr Johnson, Carrie and Chancellor Rishi Sunak - who all attended the event - are among a tranche of 30 more FPNs notices dished out by Scotland Yard this afternoon to people who broke lockdown rules. Tonight Mr Johnson, speaking from Chequers, refused to step down, and insisted that at the time he had not believed he was breaking the rules - rules that he introduced. He insisted he had only attended for 10 minutes between a heavy rota of meetings and events on his 56th birthday. He also refused to rule out receiving more fines for other events in future. The PM told broadcasters: 'The best thing I can do, having paid the fine, is focus on the job in hand... I feel an even greater sense of obligation to deliver on the priorities of the British people.' Both Mr Johnson and his wife have paid their fines, believed to be £50, and apologised for the party on June 19, 2020. He told reporters tonight: 'I have to say, in all frankness, at that time it did not occur to me that this might have been a breach of the rules.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10712233/Boris-Johnson-says-SORRY-Partygate-police-fine-REFUSES-resign.html
The Met revealed on Tuesday that at least 30 more fixed penalty notices were issued over the saga, with a spokesman for Number 10 confirming Mr Johnson, his wife Carrie and Chancellor Rishi Sunak will be among the recipients. Calls for their resignations swelled in the hours after the announcement, with Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford and his Scottish counterpart Nicola Sturgeon among those calling for the country's two top parliamentarians to step down. Mr Sunak is said to have agonised for hours over whether to resign, spending the afternoon discussing his future with aides and allies, according to the Times. The Chancellor reportedly had to be talked out of leaving his post because it would have piled more pressure on the Prime Minister to follow suit, the paper said. Mr Johnson will also shortly have to contend with the final findings of the report into illegal Downing Street gatherings, with ministers expecting it to be published in time for the return of Parliament next week. The full dossier was due at the start of the year, but was put on ice after criminal investigations were launched by police into 12 lockdown parties, meaning only a heavily redacted summary was available initially. A source told the Telegraph: 'The delay in publishing the Sue Gray report has caused much frustration, but now that the bulk of the police investigation is complete, it is important the findings are made public as soon as possible so that everything can be as transparent as possible. The details in the report will make very uncomfortable reading for Boris Johnson and for a number of other key figures in Whitehall. The issuing of Fixed Penalty Notices by the police is certainly not the end of the matter.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10712829/As-rivals-tell-Boris-rule-maker-rule-breaker-Tory-backbenchers-hit-back.html
Keir Starmer is favourite to be the next PM.
Yet the Tories are odds on favourites to win the next general election.
Coupled with this, there is a possibility that Boris may get ousted prior to the next election.
If this occurred then he would obviously be replaced by another Tory.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/partygate-boris-is-ridiculed-for-getting-a-fixed-penalty-notice/ar-AAW8jJ1?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5ce3897ce0444e63bf70858965ac3a5e#image=AAW8jJ1_1|1
The shortest odds on next Tory leader is Truss-widely available at 6/1. Whereas Starmer is probably 1/10 to be Labour Leader at the next election.
So-if Labour win the next election, or even lead a Coalition-Starmer wins. If Johnson wins, stays throughout and Labour wins a 2029 election-again, Starmer probably wins.
To win on Truss or Tugendhat or whoever, you need a change in PM before the next election OR a change after the Tories Win the next election. When, on the second part of the Win Double, there is no clear favourite as to next Tory Leader.
Keir Starmer is the favourite to be our next PM.
For Keir Starmer to become our next PM, the Tories have to lose the next general election.
The Tories are odds on favourites to win.
But not only that, you also have to rely on Boris not being ousted before the general election.
So the bet on Starmer assumes 2 things, that Boris survives, and Labour wins the next general election.
The odds say at this stage that Labour winning is unlikely, and Boris surviving is in the balance.
Therefore the Starmer odds dont look good.
I am also not sure of the terms and conditions.
If Boris hangs on, and wins the election, is he the next PM, or does the bet run on until he is replaced, either by leaving office or at some future general election?
At whichever point Boris is ousted the next Tory leader becomes the next PM, whether that was before the election, or after an election win.
I am not sure if they would let you bet a double on say Truss to be the next Tory leader, and the next PM.
Because if Boris is ousted one will automatically follow the other.
If they did allow it you could get 6/1 for both bets giving you a return of around £490 for a tenner, for what is essentially a 6/1 bet.
Putting it simply, you have an opinion. With no money riding on it.
I have an opinion. With no money riding on it.
The Bookies share my opinion. And are quite willing for you (and anyone else) to bet £100,000,000 that they are right.
Now-who do you think is right?
^^^^^
They would be "correlated" so not a valid bet.
They nearly let me. There's always 1 person at a bookies who knows these things...
To pretty much everybody.
If you seriously believe that you understand how to set odds better than bookmakers, you should be wagering large sums on this.
The point being, if the results are correlated, it greatly affects the odds of the double. Whereas the singles are not correlated.
I think there may be some serious value in a Caretaker Conservative PM. Because if Johnson leaves now, or there is a Minority Con Government, or he flounces off in 2028, there would need to be an old hand as the next PM. And the old-stagers are at seriously long odds.
If you bet the next Tory leader, that is resolved when Boris is replaced.
You dont seem to understand the point I was trying to make.
Perhaps I didnt explain it clearly.
The favourite to be our next PM is Kier Starmer.
For this to happen Labour must win the next general election.
Currently the Tories are odds on favourites to win.
The Tories win and the bet on Starmer loses.
In addition to this the bet on Starmer also loses if Boris gets ousted prior to the general election.
Yet despite this he is still favourite.
Forget horses and win doubles, the only way that the bet on Starmer wins is if Labour win the general election.
And only if Boris survives until then.
The betting on the next Tory leader is completely different.
You are just betting on who will succeed Boris whenever that may be.
This may occur whenever Boris stands down.
It is not reliant on election results or anything else.
For example if you thought this might be Truss.
You could win if Boris was ousted pre election.
If the Tories lost, and Boris stood down.
Or if the Tories won and Boris stood down before or after the next election.
He did say he was looking for 2 terms.
As an example, for Starmer to the next PM, as you rightly say, Johnson needs to survive til the next election and Labour needs to win the election. Bookies odds for that are about 3/1. So, in theory, that is a 1 in 4 chance (cos Bookies will make a profit, so really less than that).
Shortest priced next Tory leader is 6/1. Rather bigger than 3/1. True to say might be before next election. also true to say they might be leader of the Opposition if it is after 2024.
There is a difference between very likely. And the odds-against favourite in a large field. Not necessarily the quickest horse. But got a favourable draw.
The question I am asking is why is Kier Starmer favourite to be our next PM?
He can only be come the next PM, if Labour win the next general election.
He loses before we get to the general election, if Boris is ousted.
And the Tories are odds on favourites to win anyway.
The difference between this bet, and the next Tory leader bet is clear.
You could still win the bet if Boris is ousted, and if he isnt.
You can still win the bet if the Tories win the next general election, and if they dont.
You cant lose until Boris leaves office.