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What would you do ? ..... or what should you do ?
MISTY4ME
Member Posts: 6,316
Mr HAYES @HAYSIE and myself have been having a little discussion about whether you should be CALLING a SHOVE with Q-Q
This was from last night's 6pm Semi to the 20K Main
I had 10,365 chips ....Blinds 400/800 (so x13 BB's) ..... I was in 4th or 5th place with 15 seats available and 18 players left
I got dealt Q-Q ........but memfno (who I have a note or two on) SHOVED
What would you do ?
....or more importantly WHAT SHOULD YOU DO ?
@FeelGroggy , @Essexphil , @destinycod , @chrisdonkb , @StayOrGo , @Itsover4u , @bbMike , @Arrogant , @Natnug , @glencoelad ('coz I know you know about satellite play from Dara O'Kierney's book) , @bigfatfish , @stack_u , @Alvez11
@ ALL the good players who know far more than me
If it was a BOUNTY HUNTER I'm calling all day long ........but in a satellite, I know it's a very different scenario, especially as I was in quite a strong position...... and if I'd CALLED and LOST, I would have dropped into bottom 3 places
This was from last night's 6pm Semi to the 20K Main
I had 10,365 chips ....Blinds 400/800 (so x13 BB's) ..... I was in 4th or 5th place with 15 seats available and 18 players left
I got dealt Q-Q ........but memfno (who I have a note or two on) SHOVED
What would you do ?
....or more importantly WHAT SHOULD YOU DO ?
@FeelGroggy , @Essexphil , @destinycod , @chrisdonkb , @StayOrGo , @Itsover4u , @bbMike , @Arrogant , @Natnug , @glencoelad ('coz I know you know about satellite play from Dara O'Kierney's book) , @bigfatfish , @stack_u , @Alvez11
@ ALL the good players who know far more than me
If it was a BOUNTY HUNTER I'm calling all day long ........but in a satellite, I know it's a very different scenario, especially as I was in quite a strong position...... and if I'd CALLED and LOST, I would have dropped into bottom 3 places
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Formosina | Small blind | 400.00 | 400.00 | 16510.00 | |
| flop2hard | Big blind | 800.00 | 1200.00 | 4040.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| TommyD | Fold | ||||
| memfno | All-in | 6350.00 | 7550.00 | 0.00 | |
| Rashnikov | Fold | ||||
| MISTY4ME | Fold | ||||
| Formosina | Fold | ||||
| flop2hard | Fold | ||||
| memfno | Muck | ||||
| memfno | Win | 2000.00 | 2000.00 | ||
| memfno | Return | 5550.00 | 0.00 | 7550.00 |
Comments
Fold. All day long. You have about a 90% chance of qualifying if you fold.
If you call and win? Probably 95%. Call and lose? Probably 60%. Which is why it is a fold. You are probably only 65/35 to win v his range. Think KK is a fold, and AA is close, but probably a fold too (though I would probably make an iffy call with AA)
In an MTT, it is obviously a call/reshove.
Ask @Tikay10 to move this to poker chat/clinic
He was right....hic!
What would / should you do Neil .....Tho' I know you don't really play Sat's
Done.
I am calling all day long.
The reason I am saying that, is firstly, the shover has less than 8 bigs, and therefore quite a wide range.
Secondly the next blind level is 600/1200.
Therefore Mistys stack becomes 8 bigs, and shove or fold mode.
With this in mind QQ is too big a hand to waste.
To add perspective.
Misty busted out a couple of hands later.
The blinds were 600/1200.
He was down to just less than 8k in chips.
So less than 7 bigs.
The same guy shoved with exactly the same size stack, and A6o.
Misty called with AA, and lost.
2815 chips left.
Though the circumstances were much different.....
I was still in Top 6 or 7 or so, 17 players left ......but this time memfno SHOVED on my 1200 BB
Sadly I was very unlucky and got T'RIVERWaddyd
PS you would have lost with QQ to ace rag too!
You have to recognise when its setting you up for a big fall.......
Whilst ever there are cards in the pack that enable you to lose from a strong position ......you can lose.
I'd had a bit of GOOD LUCK previously just getting into the Top 5
.....so , as ever........
Some you WIN........Some you LOSE
HAPPY POKERing
You could also be turning a win into a loss.
Or even a loss into another loss.
I wonder how many players would be kicking themselves after folding the queens, when they found themselves 10 hands later, with almost two and a half thousand less chips, blinds at 600/1200, so less than 7 bigs behind, with 17 runners still in, the blinds just about to increase to 800/1600, therefore less than 5 bigs, and wished they had called with the queens.
What was the starting stack? What is the average stack? Was there overlay?
I am guessing it was a £22 sat (1 in 5) but not sure if starting stack was 3K or 2K?
So there are 2 hands, I believe?
First the QQ
You have 13BB's and are 5/18 with 15 seats. Without all the data, I would say that your "Chance of Cashing" or the rather terse term that Dara uses, "COC" has to be well over 90% so you should fold everything here. So it was a good fold.
Dara says "in general" if you have more people below you that would get a seat, than those above, you want to start to seriously slow down. So you have 4 above and 10 below. Also he uses a 70% rule, which is, have you got to 70% of the "target."
The "target" being 10K if it is a 1 in 5 sat with no overlay and a 2K starting stack, but it would be 15K if a 3k starting stack hence why we need clarification. So you easily have over 70% of target if it was a 2K starting stack and just about if it was a 3K starting stack. So the QQ hand you fold ALL your range, and Dara recommends letting the timer drag, until it's "hand for hand", which is sensible, but I am not a great fan of the etiquette side of it. But if it was a WORLD SERIES M/E seat up for grabs, would I do it? Sure I would, so I am a bit of a hypocrite here. If you want to be really "clinical" about it, even when hand for hand, you should, plan a few hands ahead, and try and use your time bank, either fast or slow, to try and make the blinds go up, after your small blind if possible. I tend not to slow play sats on Sky, as we all know each other and it's a "friendlier" approach to just play normally from a time perspective.
Also if there were like 3 players with just one or two BB's then it's even more of a fold.
So the first hand, the QQ is an EASY fold.
The AA is not quite so clear cut, and depends on the stack sizes at the bottom.
You say there were 17 players left at this stage? How many chips did the bottom 4 players have? You were 6th or 7th of 17 say 7th so you have 6 above and 8 below you that would still get seats. So it's borderline as your AA is probably 85% against their range. To me the main factor has to be, how many chips do the bottom 3 or maybe 4 have? If you fold you have, what, 7 BB's? If the bottom 4 all have 3 BB's or less, (quite likely I think) then you can fold it, basically the bottom four will either get blinded out by the big stacks, or take each other out.
Always hard to fold AA. I have made so many "Over 10 that I can think of" bad calls with AA in Satellites. (Classing a bad call as a situation where you are 90%+ to cash, if you fold, and will bust if you call and lose the hand) So it's a tough lesson to learn.
I remember just 1 time when I folded AA and didn't go on to get the seat. So it can happen, and you feel a chump when it does. So you "may" want to have "slightly more" than 90% to avoid the "slow death" that can happen when you fold everything.
Hope this helps. Always Unlucky to lose with AA except when you are "guaranteed" a seat if you fold, then it's just bad play/bad discipline. But we've all done it, I am sure.
Really good insight into Satellite play.
Because I have to play more satellites to try to get in to Bigger Tourneys, I think I have quite a good record, and understand some, but defo not all of what I should do.
Any advice is really helpful ......and hopefully other low stakes players appreciate it too.
Keep advice coming please
..... I'm sure I'll be posting more hands on here