I think you're trying to twist the situation ........ obviously if I knew what cards were going to come out in A-A v A-6 hand, I would have FOLDED ......but no one knows what cards are going to be dealt, except @TheWaddy
I am not. I just merely asked, if you could turn the clock back, would you call with the queens? I think that is a no brainer, as the question has nothing to do with the rights or wrongs. As we all know the outcome, it makes logical sense to call with the queens. Its just that you cant bring yourself to say so.
NO it doesn't ......it's exactly the same scenario with Q-Q's because in that situation I had 10 players below me and 4 above.....so according to Graham and the Poker Satellite Stategy book being in 5th with over 10K chips it's a FOLD......and most people agree with that.
How mad do you have to be to say, oh no, I would still play in exactly the same way, and still lose. It can only be hypothetical, as we all also know that you cant turn the clock back.
It's not mad at all.....it's the correct play in that situation
Do you know what turning the clock back means?
I know exactly what turning the clock back means ........ and we actually did it last Sunday morning
.....and likewise with the A-Aces if I'd been dealt A-Aces again in the following hand, I would have CALLED a SHOVE..... which I think has pretty much been backed-up by Graham @StayOrGo and Phil @Essexphil with the stack sizes of the bottom 4 players.
Dara says "in general" if you have more people below you that would get a seat, than those above, you want to start to seriously slow down. So you have 4 above and 10 below. Also he uses a 70% rule, which is, have you got to 70% of the "target."
When I called with the A-Aces, the positions had changed ....... I was lower down the leaderboard (around 7th) and had less than 10K chips. Maybe you're confusing the situations
When you called with the aces you still had more players below than above, and were over 70% of your target?
.....but I would have very soon been in the bottom four..... AND I'm never going to get a better hand than A-Aces, as well as still having some chips left. It would have been more of a FOLD if one of the Bigger Stacks than me would have SHOVED
..... but even then I would probably still have called
I think you're trying to twist the situation ........ obviously if I knew what cards were going to come out in A-A v A-6 hand, I would have FOLDED ......but no one knows what cards are going to be dealt, except @TheWaddy
I am not. I just merely asked, if you could turn the clock back, would you call with the queens? I think that is a no brainer, as the question has nothing to do with the rights or wrongs. As we all know the outcome, it makes logical sense to call with the queens. Its just that you cant bring yourself to say so.
NO it doesn't ......it's exactly the same scenario with Q-Q's because in that situation I had 10 players below me and 4 above.....so according to Graham and the Poker Satellite Stategy book being in 5th with over 10K chips it's a FOLD......and most people agree with that.
How mad do you have to be to say, oh no, I would still play in exactly the same way, and still lose. It can only be hypothetical, as we all also know that you cant turn the clock back.
It's not mad at all.....it's the correct play in that situation
Do you know what turning the clock back means?
I know exactly what turning the clock back means ........ and we actually did it last Sunday morning
.....and likewise with the A-Aces if I'd been dealt A-Aces again in the following hand, I would have CALLED a SHOVE..... which I think has pretty much been backed-up by Graham @StayOrGo and Phil @Essexphil with the stack sizes of the bottom 4 players.
Dara says "in general" if you have more people below you that would get a seat, than those above, you want to start to seriously slow down. So you have 4 above and 10 below. Also he uses a 70% rule, which is, have you got to 70% of the "target."
When I called with the A-Aces, the positions had changed ....... I was lower down the leaderboard (around 7th) and had less than 10K chips. Maybe you're confusing the situations
When you called with the aces you still had more players below than above, and were over 70% of your target?
.....but I would have very soon been in the bottom four..... AND I'm never going to get a better hand than A-Aces, as well as still having some chips left. It would have been more of a FOLD if one of the Bigger Stacks than me would have SHOVED
..... but even then I would probably still have called
I think you're trying to twist the situation ........ obviously if I knew what cards were going to come out in A-A v A-6 hand, I would have FOLDED ......but no one knows what cards are going to be dealt, except @TheWaddy
I am not. I just merely asked, if you could turn the clock back, would you call with the queens? I think that is a no brainer, as the question has nothing to do with the rights or wrongs. As we all know the outcome, it makes logical sense to call with the queens. Its just that you cant bring yourself to say so.
NO it doesn't ......it's exactly the same scenario with Q-Q's because in that situation I had 10 players below me and 4 above.....so according to Graham and the Poker Satellite Stategy book being in 5th with over 10K chips it's a FOLD......and most people agree with that.
How mad do you have to be to say, oh no, I would still play in exactly the same way, and still lose. It can only be hypothetical, as we all also know that you cant turn the clock back.
It's not mad at all.....it's the correct play in that situation
Do you know what turning the clock back means?
I know exactly what turning the clock back means ........ and we actually did it last Sunday morning
.....and likewise with the A-Aces if I'd been dealt A-Aces again in the following hand, I would have CALLED a SHOVE..... which I think has pretty much been backed-up by Graham @StayOrGo and Phil @Essexphil with the stack sizes of the bottom 4 players.
Dara says "in general" if you have more people below you that would get a seat, than those above, you want to start to seriously slow down. So you have 4 above and 10 below. Also he uses a 70% rule, which is, have you got to 70% of the "target."
When I called with the A-Aces, the positions had changed ....... I was lower down the leaderboard (around 7th) and had less than 10K chips. Maybe you're confusing the situations
When you called with the aces you still had more players below than above, and were over 70% of your target?
.....but I would have very soon been in the bottom four..... AND I'm never going to get a better hand than A-Aces, as well as still having some chips left. It would have been more of a FOLD if one of the Bigger Stacks than me would have SHOVED
..... but even then I would probably still have called
GOOD LUCK tonight
There are only 2 better starting hands than QQ.
I'm still FOLDING them in that situation
Playing poker isnt just about playing two hands correctly, in isolation. I will accept the fact that the 3 or four other players that have commented so far have said that folding the queens was correct. Taken in isolation, it is not difficult to understand the case for doing so. But what happens next? What is the strategy from folding the queens onwards? Are you folding everything? In the 10 hands between the queens and the aces, it seems your stack size has reduced in line with the blinds. Folding everything maybe dangerous? Alternatively, is the strategy to be nicking blinds, for example shoving or folding, min raising, or betting 3 bigs, in position. I which case what is your range? What happens if you min raise, and get shoved on? I assume you have to fold? There would seem to be no room for error. If you are playing anything, then the majority of your range will be much worse than QQ. Are you min raising with KJ, or shoving with A9. I think it is difficult to judge whether folding the queens was correct, without specifying what happens next.
The criteria you used to justify folding the queens, clearly also applied to the aces. Something you seem reluctant to admit. In both cases there were more players below than above you. In both cases you had reached 70% of your chip target. By the time you played the aces, one player had busted out, so you were closer to the bubble. Despite this, you seem **** bent on twisting the facts to justify playing them. Obviously one of the major reasons for not playing premium hands, is to avoid losing to inferior hands. Playing the aces were proof that this happens. And a good reason for folding them.
When you played the aces you maintain that all the bottom 4 had between 4,500, and 5,000 chips. That means the bottom 9, had between 4,500, and 9,000, before you played the aces. I dont think I have ever actually seen that, with 17 left.
When you played the aces you keep pointing to the fact that you had paid the BB. Does that make a difference? You were still on target in respect of the 70% rule, even after paying the SB, in the next hand.
So in a nutshell, I could see that folding queens makes sense if the subsequent strategy was to fold everything. It makes less sense if the plan was to be raising or shoving with KJ, or A9.
I couldnt fold the queens. I accept that maybe wrong. Had I won with them, subsequently folding everything was feasible, as my stack size would have increased to almost 17,000. The result would have been that your opponent when you played the aces was eliminated, and altered the outcome, should you have chosen to play them. Had I lost with the queens, I may have looked a d1ck for playing them, but would have still been left with 5 bigs, four hands away from the BB, and in a better position than when you lost with the aces.
I'm not going to go fully into the way I play satellites, 'coz that would be useful info for other players I play against...... including yourself
I think we can gather from what you've revealed, that you will be calling a SHOVE in a situation that you probably shouldn't........ and maybe that's a similar case with me CALLING a SHOVE with A-Aces, but I'd much rather CALL with the best hand I could have.
As I think I've told you, I've been running a small study on AIPF with Q-Queens and it currently stands at 9 WINS + 9 LOSSES so 50/50..... which is a risk I wasn't prepared to take at that time.
However when I got dealt A-Aces 10 hands later, the situation had changed, and holding the best starting hand I could have, I thought it was the best opportunity I would get to KO a player, and secure my seat, especially as it was my BB and I already had 1200 chips invested.
If I'd played the Q-Queens and lost (50/50 going on my study) and then been dealt all the subsequent hands I got, then I would have gone out with the A-Aces,
.......but ALL that is hypothetical.
GOOD LUCK tonight and for the Weekend.....hope to see you on a FT somewhere
I'm not going to go fully into the way I play satellites, 'coz that would be useful info for other players I play against...... including yourself
Are you now working for MI5?
I think we can gather from what you've revealed, that you will be calling a SHOVE in a situation that you probably shouldn't........ and maybe that's a similar case with me CALLING a SHOVE with A-Aces, but I'd much rather CALL with the best hand I could have.
I am saying that I would call the shove with QQ in the hand you posted. As I said a number of times, I am at a loss when it comes to the proposed strategy, subsequent to folding them. The strategy that Graham referred to is in a book, and hardly a secret. My point about both hands was that if you apply the same rules, then you fold both.
As I think I've told you, I've been running a small study on AIPF with Q-Queens and it currently stands at 9 WINS + 9 LOSSES so 50/50..... which is a risk I wasn't prepared to take at that time.
Thats incredible. A full study involving 18 hands. You should write a book. Or at least let CardPlayer magazine know, they may wish to review their odds calculator.
However when I got dealt A-Aces 10 hands later, the situation had changed, and holding the best starting hand I could have, I thought it was the best opportunity I would get to KO a player, and secure my seat, especially as it was my BB and I already had 1200 chips invested.
The situation hadnt changed in respect of the criteria you used to justify folding the queens. Other than one player had been eliminated. Have you conducted any surveys on playing AA? Was your survey on calling shoves with QQ restricted to instances near the bubble where the shover has less than 8bigs?
If I'd played the Q-Queens and lost (50/50 going on my study) and then been dealt all the subsequent hands I got, then I would have gone out with the A-Aces,
Yet if you had won you were safe, and have no need to play the AA Using a proper odds calculator you would have been over 70% favourite against AJo, and over 80% against pocket 10s You seem to be ignoring the fact that you did lose. And that your top secret strategy didnt actually work
.......but ALL that is hypothetical.
A bit like your survey?
GOOD LUCK tonight and for the Weekend.....hope to see you on a FT somewhere
Back in the day when you two worked together, how long did your meetings last, & did you ever agree on anything??
I had to listen ..... he was my BOSS
In the end though, he got rid of me 'coz I was trying to tell him what the European Sales people needed ..... only for him to implement exactly what I'd asked for
But it was FUN times
......except for walking into his SMOKE-FILLED office
Back in the day when you two worked together, how long did your meetings last, & did you ever agree on anything??
I had to listen ..... he was my BOSS In the end though, he got rid of me 'coz I was trying to tell him what the European Sales people needed ..... only for him to implement exactly what I'd asked for
But it was FUN times
......except for walking into his SMOKE-FILLED office
Back in the day when you two worked together, how long did your meetings last, & did you ever agree on anything??
I had to listen ..... he was my BOSS
In the end though, he got rid of me 'coz I was trying to tell him what the European Sales people needed ..... only for him to implement exactly what I'd asked for
But it was FUN times
......except for walking into his SMOKE-FILLED office
Back in the day when you two worked together, how long did your meetings last, & did you ever agree on anything??
I had to listen ..... he was my BOSS
In the end though, he got rid of me 'coz I was trying to tell him what the European Sales people needed ..... only for him to implement exactly what I'd asked for
But it was FUN times
......except for walking into his SMOKE-FILLED office
I am really sorry, I have done you a disservice, I have just emailed CardPlayer and they say their odds calculator was based on 10 hands. So your 18 hand survey is far more comprehensive, and is likely to be more accurate.
Back in the day when you two worked together, how long did your meetings last, & did you ever agree on anything??
I had to listen ..... he was my BOSS
In the end though, he got rid of me 'coz I was trying to tell him what the European Sales people needed ..... only for him to implement exactly what I'd asked for
But it was FUN times
......except for walking into his SMOKE-FILLED office
If you were put in a situation where you had 'A-Aces' and your opponent had A6o and you could run it once and the outcome was based on whether your family lived or died....
And you had one choice, run it with a real deck or run it online, which would everyone pick?
Ooooo thats a tough one for you guys, i 100% know the answer absolutely all would choose, but you certainly aint gonna put it on here!!!!!
Kind of put things in perspective......
Id be running mine whilst glancing over to Jacs/Misty/edge/stokefc's stubborn choice, raising my eyebrows at them as the As 6c online flops 5s 7s 8s...........
Oh come on, this is great forum banter, you all recognise it but put your fingers in your ears and shout blah blah blah blah!
If you were put in a situation where you had 'A-Aces' and your opponent had A6o and you could run it once and the outcome was based on whether your family lived or died....
And you had one choice, run it with a real deck or run it online, which would everyone pick?
Ooooo thats a tough one for you guys, i 100% know the answer absolutely all would choose, but you certainly aint gonna put it on here!!!!!
Kind of put things in perspective......
Id be running mine whilst glancing over to Jacs/Misty/edge/stokefc's stubborn choice, raising my eyebrows at them as the As 6c online flops 5s 7s 8s...........
Oh come on, this is great forum banter, you all recognise it but put your fingers in your ears and shout blah blah blah blah!
This is an interesting spot and feels incredibly close. I quickly inputted a few ranges and seems like regardless of shoving ranges Aces has 84-85% equity vs an all in. If you win the all in you basically get a seat 100% of the time. 88% of the field gets paid. I wouldn't be able to calculate what your chance of cashing are at this point if you fold but with 8000 chips left after paying your BB I'd imagine it's going to be above 90%. So if you were covered here it would be an easy fold.
But you aren't covered. You also need to work out what percent of the time you cash if you call, lose and are left with 2800 chips. I don't know what this figure is but I reckon it is is higher than you think. You have a full 6 hands until your in the BB again and there is collision going to be happening on other tables in the meantime. I'd say you still cash over half the time.
So lets say it's half the time to make it easy. If you fold your odds of making the money are likely over 90%. If you call Aces 85% of the time you make the money. Of the 15% of the time you lose you probably make the money 7.5%. So by calling Aces here you make the money 92.5% of the time.
As you can see it's incredibly close. It could probably be solved if you ran the spot in HRC but I don't have it. It's close enough that your not winning or losing much either way.
If you were really trying to maximise your EV, you could probably make more money folding by calling. You are at one of the 3 tables that have 6 players and not 5, so the blinds come around slower for you. Also players on other tables will no doubt make some massive calling mistakes which increases your chance of cashing. You could probably generate a higher chance of cashing by time-banking every hand and slowing down the play also.
I would call in game, but that's more down to me having far too many tables to figure all this out in 15 seconds than it being the best play.
This is an interesting spot and feels incredibly close. I quickly inputted a few ranges and seems like regardless of shoving ranges Aces has 84-85% equity vs an all in. If you win the all in you basically get a seat 100% of the time. 88% of the field gets paid. I wouldn't be able to calculate what your chance of cashing are at this point if you fold but with 8000 chips left after paying your BB I'd imagine it's going to be above 90%. So if you were covered here it would be an easy fold.
But you aren't covered. You also need to work out what percent of the time you cash if you call, lose and are left with 2800 chips. I don't know what this figure is but I reckon it is is higher than you think. You have a full 6 hands until your in the BB again and there is collision going to be happening on other tables in the meantime. I'd say you still cash over half the time.
So lets say it's half the time to make it easy. If you fold your odds of making the money are likely over 90%. If you call Aces 85% of the time you make the money. Of the 15% of the time you lose you probably make the money 7.5%. So by calling Aces here you make the money 92.5% of the time.
As you can see it's incredibly close. It could probably be solved if you ran the spot in HRC but I don't have it. It's close enough that your not winning or losing much either way.
If you were really trying to maximise your EV, you could probably make more money folding by calling. You are at one of the 3 tables that have 6 players and not 5, so the blinds come around slower for you. Also players on other tables will no doubt make some massive calling mistakes which increases your chance of cashing. You could probably generate a higher chance of cashing by time-banking every hand and slowing down the play also.
I would call in game, but that's more down to me having far too many tables to figure all this out in 15 seconds than it being the best play.
Comments
all you folk folding those queens are boring, where is your sense of excitement, lol.
Morning Tony
I'm not going to go fully into the way I play satellites, 'coz that would be useful info for other players I play against...... including yourself
I think we can gather from what you've revealed, that you will be calling a SHOVE in a situation that you probably shouldn't........ and maybe that's a similar case with me CALLING a SHOVE with A-Aces, but I'd much rather CALL with the best hand I could have.
As I think I've told you, I've been running a small study on AIPF with Q-Queens and it currently stands at 9 WINS + 9 LOSSES so 50/50..... which is a risk I wasn't prepared to take at that time.
However when I got dealt A-Aces 10 hands later, the situation had changed, and holding the best starting hand I could have, I thought it was the best opportunity I would get to KO a player, and secure my seat, especially as it was my BB and I already had 1200 chips invested.
If I'd played the Q-Queens and lost (50/50 going on my study) and then been dealt all the subsequent hands I got, then I would have gone out with the A-Aces,
.......but ALL that is hypothetical.
GOOD LUCK tonight and for the Weekend.....hope to see you on a FT somewhere
Back in the day when you two worked together, how long did your meetings last, & did you ever agree on anything??
Thanks.
1 Play the queens.
2 Fold the aces.
3 Play some of the hands between the queens and the aces differently.
In the end though, he got rid of me 'coz I was trying to tell him what the European Sales people needed ..... only for him to implement exactly what I'd asked for
But it was FUN times
......except for walking into his SMOKE-FILLED office
I'm happy with the way I played .........sometimes you are just going to get extremely UNLUCKY
.....as I said on the 1st page
So your 18 hand survey is far more comprehensive, and is likely to be more accurate.
A-Aces LOST 1 - WON 0
And you had one choice, run it with a real deck or run it online, which would everyone pick?
Ooooo thats a tough one for you guys, i 100% know the answer absolutely all would choose, but you certainly aint gonna put it on here!!!!!
Kind of put things in perspective......
Id be running mine whilst glancing over to Jacs/Misty/edge/stokefc's stubborn choice, raising my eyebrows at them as the As 6c online flops 5s 7s 8s...........
Oh come on, this is great forum banter, you all recognise it but put your fingers in your ears and shout blah blah blah blah!
But you aren't covered. You also need to work out what percent of the time you cash if you call, lose and are left with 2800 chips. I don't know what this figure is but I reckon it is is higher than you think. You have a full 6 hands until your in the BB again and there is collision going to be happening on other tables in the meantime. I'd say you still cash over half the time.
So lets say it's half the time to make it easy. If you fold your odds of making the money are likely over 90%. If you call Aces 85% of the time you make the money. Of the 15% of the time you lose you probably make the money 7.5%. So by calling Aces here you make the money 92.5% of the time.
As you can see it's incredibly close. It could probably be solved if you ran the spot in HRC but I don't have it. It's close enough that your not winning or losing much either way.
If you were really trying to maximise your EV, you could probably make more money folding by calling. You are at one of the 3 tables that have 6 players and not 5, so the blinds come around slower for you. Also players on other tables will no doubt make some massive calling mistakes which increases your chance of cashing. You could probably generate a higher chance of cashing by time-banking every hand and slowing down the play also.
I would call in game, but that's more down to me having far too many tables to figure all this out in 15 seconds than it being the best play.