In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi) : Ha ha! Glad to hear it! Now after 2 amazing rounds last night from Hoffman and Palmer, is the double on? GOGOGOGO! Posted by FlashFlush
Palmer 1 shot off the lead - nice wee sweat tonight! Gl
My picks: Qatar Stephen Gallacher 30/1 (without rose, stenson and garcia) Seems to play well in this neck of the woods with 2 wins in the region in last two years. His finish last year here was spoilt by an ugly 75 in r3 otherwise could have been in the mix. Weisberger 30/1 (without rose, stenson and garcia) always pretty consistent and when you remove the three big names in the field 30/1 seems like a pretty solid price to me. Gallacher and Noren also in with small FRL bets. Humana Billy Horschel 40/1 Was between haas and horschel for this pick and went for horschel - already kind of regretting it despite the bigger price. Zach Johnson 28/1 Some decent finishes recently and decent record. Just got a feeling he's gonna go close again in coming weeks. FRL fun one Casey, Bohn, Haas, Bradley, Jones and Simpson all in ew trebles. Posted by jdsallstar
**** Haas!! Double kick in the nuts for me last night. Palmer triple bogying when tied for the lead and Hoffman having a great round but still falling 1 shot clear.
Still a good week and I'm also in the top 100 for the Fantasy European tour. :-)
Well i said last week I felt confident with my bets. This week I feel even more confident with my European Tour picks. I've spent most of the morning going through all the players. Seems really tough to find a player with both current form and course form while avoiding the top 3 or 4 in the market.
Nicolas Colsaerts - 55/1 - My main tip this week. Looks to be finding his feel again. Closed out his week in Qatar with a 67 and 68 to finish T13. He hasn't played here since 2012 because of his session in America, but he finished T9 then.
Although it says this course doesn't play as long as it says on the card, it's still a long course! He seems to have sacrificed length for accuracy this year, so if the course isn't playing full length that should suit him perfectly as he will still be out driving most people anyway.
Bernd Weisberger - 33/1 - I know this is someone Neil backs a lot. I've kind of never really bought into him and thought sooner or later he will drop back like all the other players that come up with a few good rounds that gets people talking. However, this guy seems to be someone who is staying and I'm forced to take more notice of him. With a 3rd and T6 already in his 2 events this year, combined with his T9 here last year I think he is only 33/1 because of Rory pushing everyone elses prices up. One of very few with both course and current form. I expect to see Neil has his house on him.
Louis Oostuizen - 33/1 - Yes, yes, I'm backing Louis again! Hopefully coming back from what ever injury he has decided to pick up this time. 2nd last time out just before Christmas. He hasn't played here for quite a while, but he has had some good finishes when he does play. Not much more I can add, but if he is back to his old self this week he will get very close.
**** Haas!! Double kick in the nuts for me last night. Palmer triple bogying when tied for the lead and Hoffman having a great round but still falling 1 shot clear. Still a good week and I'm also in the top 100 for the Fantasy European tour. :-) Posted by FlashFlush
Top 71 none the less!
Nice work Flash, I'm in the top 6,000, so trailing a little, but it's early days, sighhhh
Well as Flash rides the highs of some great picks and a profit, I'm left down in the golf tipsters gutter, feeling sorry for myself.
I was also confident of my picks last week and this seemed to be enforced by the two online tipsters I check out (Sportinglife and GolfBetting System), who between the two of them put up all 4 of my picks in europe, priced between 50/1 and 100/1 and one of my 40/1 picks in the USA.
I exclude Matthew Baldwin from that list as at 300/1 he was never going to get any attention, though for much of the tournament he was actually threatening to generate a profit for me.
I always like to go with my own fancies, before reading the pro's picks, but I have to say that I seem to have developed an uncanny loss making knack of coming up with the same picks as the pro's.
Perhaps I've built up a memory bank and ability to read the form like most people, but am focusing too much on the hard facts.
It's hard not to see Rory winning this week, I'd even talked it through with Neil and was going to come over to the dark side and lump on the favorite, but I've already missed the best price and at 7/2 I'm not sure I can pull the trigger.
Well i said last week I felt confident with my bets. This week I feel even more confident with my European Tour picks. I've spent most of the morning going through all the players. Seems really tough to find a player with both current form and course form while avoiding the top 3 or 4 in the market. Nicolas Colsaerts - 55/1 - My main tip this week. Looks to be finding his feel again. Closed out his week in Qatar with a 67 and 68 to finish T13. He hasn't played here since 2012 because of his session in America, but he finished T9 then. Although it says this course doesn't play as long as it says on the card, it's still a long course! He seems to have sacrificed length for accuracy this year, so if the course isn't playing full length that should suit him perfectly as he will still be out driving most people anyway. Bernd Weisberger - 33/1 - I know this is someone Neil backs a lot. I've kind of never really bought into him and thought sooner or later he will drop back like all the other players that come up with a few good rounds that gets people talking. However, this guy seems to be someone who is staying and I'm forced to take more notice of him. With a 3rd and T6 already in his 2 events this year, combined with his T9 here last year I think he is only 33/1 because of Rory pushing everyone elses prices up. One of very few with both course and current form. I expect to see Neil has his house on him. Louis Oostuizen - 33/1 - Yes, yes, I'm backing Louis again! Hopefully coming back from what ever injury he has decided to pick up this time. 2nd last time out just before Christmas. He hasn't played here for quite a while, but he has had some good finishes when he does play. Not much more I can add, but if he is back to his old self this week he will get very close. Posted by FlashFlush
Nope I'm not Charles. I'll explain why below. Well done again on last week, and to everyone else who scored.
Right to this week. Now I could (like some of you have no doubt have done already) spend hours looking for an edge/angle to get those pesky bookies beat. A good priced outsider in form, maybe betting without Rory, or even Rory and Stenson.
But I'm not. Let's face it, if Rory had had his putting boots on the other week, we wouldn't have been amazed by Kaymers collapse. Instead we'd have been eulogising over another Rory masterclass. He plays this course better, he'll have spent hours on his putting, as his long and short game couldn't possibly be improved. But we're been asked to take 4/1, and is that value u ask??
Well ok here are the facts. In two months time at Augusta, at a course he's YET to win at, in a field that will contain Rose, Scott, multiple champions Bubba, Phil and Tiger. Not forgetting Spieth, Reed, and all the other up and coming Yanks, he's a MASSIVE 9/2!!!! - I think that says it all. 4/1 to win is very much VALUE.
One bet this week, Rory to win 4/1, and 1/2 size bet again on Rory ew 4/1 - just in case someone has a stellar week, so I'll get 2/3's of my total stake back.
Darty, I'll see u at the payout desk Sunday afternoon.
You make a fair point on Rory. What I would say though, when I watched him it wasn't his putting that was letting him down, it was his short irons from 100-120 yards. Instead of being inside 10ft he was outside 25ft most of the time. So it's not just 1 part of his game that has been off...
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters) : Good Luck Spanky, you should get a decent run for your money with those selections. Posted by TheDart
You see I was bang on the money there wasn't I?
I guess some credit should also go to Spanky for the picks
I can't argue with Neil and his opinion of Rory this week, in fact I agree with him, but just like my teenage son, who doesn't always listen to my good advice, I've gone and done my own thing.
There's still time for me to add Rory, but for now I've kept it simple and just gone for 3 players who I picked out during the Qatar Masters;
Byeung Hun An, 1 point ew 80/1: Three of the last 4 tournaments he has played have been in this region, he finished 4th in Dubai at the Challenge Tour finale, 12th in Abu Dhabi and 5th last week in Qatar.
Looked very impressive last week and from what I saw if a few more putts had dropped instead of a host of near misses, he would have won.
A bit more luck on the greens this week and he might just get that first win on tour.
Gregory Bourdy, 1 point ew 125/1: played some high quality golf last week in finishing 5th, yet surprisingly for putts per GIR was ranked a lowly 64th of 74 players.
Bourdy was ranked 29th on tour for putting last year and I've always thought of him as a player you can trust with a putter in his hand.
Going with the theory that some players struggle to adapt to the greens at Qatar, going with the fact that tee to green last week he was top 4 and top 6, going with the theory he has played the Desert Swing well and is a 4 time winner on tour who is due his next win.
Benjamin Hebert 1 point ew 150/1: I highlighted him as a player to look out for this year and after last weeks 10th place finish to follow up his win at the Challenge Tour finale in Dubai its clear he enjoys the conditions of the desert Swing.
I was going to say he looks great value for this week and maybe he is, but if he doesn't finish top 5, then I'll admit Rory was better value.
European Tour Starting Balance = -31 points Qatar Investment = 6 points Balance Carried Forward = -37 points
N1 Flash _ I to avoided Grace after backing him after the Scottish Open last year and for the Open as he was playing well then
I do get my £5 back on Kuchar as a free bet for finishing 2nd or 3rd - Just dissapointed he didn,t win . Finished +£15 over the week as i layed a tiny bit of Kooch
Got a £10 Freebet for this week. I,ll get a tip from someone above. Its for the Pheonix Open
EDIT - Nahhh - Sticking with Kooch - Couldn,t live with myself and i,d like to see him win anyway
Market
Selection
Price
Hcp
Outright - Waste Management Phoenix Open Tournament Outright
Hideki Matsuyama, 1.5points ew 33/1, He had a great chance to win this event last year, but I remember thinking at the time, that the realization that the win was on got to him a little over the closing holes.
A few months later he did get his first win and has continued to prove himself to be a top class player, if he gets into contention again this Sunday, the added experience should help see him over the line.
Gary Woodland, 1.5 points ew 33/1, In a field of Watson, Speith, Kuchar, Fowler, Woods, Mickleson, Reed and Haas, Gary Woodland feels like a bit of a 'dark horse' this week and I really like his chances.
His first outing of 2015 was 2 weeks ago at The Sony Open, an event where he was yet to make the cut, this time round he finished 3rd. Though it was 10 shots behind winner Jimmy Walker, that result was eye catching from Woodland.
In 2011 he finished 5th here, shooting 4 rounds in the 60's. Two time winner on tour, wins coming in 2011 and 2013, timing is right for a win in 2015.
Nick Watney, 1 point ew 70/1, former world top 10 player, struggled for much of the last 12-18 months, in fact I believe last year was his worst year on tour.
He took a longer than usual winter break (10 weeks) and returned last week with a 14th place finish, which was his best result for some time, most encouraging was his second round where he took just 20 putts, as its the putting and short game rather than tee to green that deteriorated last season.
He has course form here, so if he can build on last weeks first outing and return to form, Nick Watney could make the 70/1 on offer look like a gift.
PGA TOUR STARTING BALANCE = -30 Points Humana Challenge Investment = -8 Points Balance Carried Forwards = -38 Points
Bit boring having all my eggs in Rory's basket. So I've backed Grillo ew in the without market @ 42/1 with Betvictor. Also done a straight win double Rory 3/1 (now) and Blubba (he owes me for throwing this event away last year) 16/1 = 68/1
Gl all
Edit:- Maybe throwing more money away. But can't resist the 14/1 on Rory going wire to wire. Key stat:- He's led after round 1 here in 4 out of his last 5 starts. Tomoz he gets the early start on the easier back nine. I'm hoping to see him 3 under as he wanders up the Par 5 18th, as the live action starts.
Right to this week. Now I could (like some of you have no doubt have done already) spend hours looking for an edge/angle to get those pesky bookies beat. A good priced outsider in form, maybe betting without Rory, or even Rory and Stenson. But I'm not. Let's face it, if Rory had had his putting boots on the other week, we wouldn't have been amazed by Kaymers collapse. Instead we'd have been eulogising over another Rory masterclass. He plays this course better, he'll have spent hours on his putting, as his long and short game couldn't possibly be improved. But we're been asked to take 4/1, and is that value u ask?? Well ok here are the facts. In two months time at Augusta, at a course he's YET to win at, in a field that will contain Rose, Scott, multiple champions Bubba, Phil and Tiger. Not forgetting Spieth, Reed, and all the other up and coming Yanks, he's a MASSIVE 9/2!!!! - I think that says it all. 4/1 to win is very much VALUE. One bet this week, Rory to win 4/1, and 1/2 size bet again on Rory ew 4/1 - just in case someone has a stellar week, so I'll get 2/3's of my total stake back. Darty, I'll see u at the payout desk Sunday afternoon. Posted by joesman1
Im looking hard, is that u I see in the distance??
Comments
Nice work Flash, I'm in the top 6,000, so trailing a little, but it's early days, sighhhh
I was also confident of my picks last week and this seemed to be enforced by the two online tipsters I check out (Sportinglife and GolfBetting System), who between the two of them put up all 4 of my picks in europe, priced between 50/1 and 100/1 and one of my 40/1 picks in the USA.
I exclude Matthew Baldwin from that list as at 300/1 he was never going to get any attention, though for much of the tournament he was actually threatening to generate a profit for me.
I always like to go with my own fancies, before reading the pro's picks, but I have to say that I seem to have developed an uncanny loss making knack of coming up with the same picks as the pro's.
Perhaps I've built up a memory bank and ability to read the form like most people, but am focusing too much on the hard facts.
It's hard not to see Rory winning this week, I'd even talked it through with Neil and was going to come over to the dark side and lump on the favorite, but I've already missed the best price and at 7/2 I'm not sure I can pull the trigger.
You see I was bang on the money there wasn't I?
I guess some credit should also go to Spanky for the picks
Who are you on this week Spanky?
Dubai Classic
I can't argue with Neil and his opinion of Rory this week, in fact I agree with him, but just like my teenage son, who doesn't always listen to my good advice, I've gone and done my own thing.
There's still time for me to add Rory, but for now I've kept it simple and just gone for 3 players who I picked out during the Qatar Masters;
Byeung Hun An, 1 point ew 80/1: Three of the last 4 tournaments he has played have been in this region, he finished 4th in Dubai at the Challenge Tour finale, 12th in Abu Dhabi and 5th last week in Qatar.
Looked very impressive last week and from what I saw if a few more putts had dropped instead of a host of near misses, he would have won.
A bit more luck on the greens this week and he might just get that first win on tour.
Gregory Bourdy, 1 point ew 125/1: played some high quality golf last week in finishing 5th, yet surprisingly for putts per GIR was ranked a lowly 64th of 74 players.
Bourdy was ranked 29th on tour for putting last year and I've always thought of him as a player you can trust with a putter in his hand.
Going with the theory that some players struggle to adapt to the greens at Qatar, going with the fact that tee to green last week he was top 4 and top 6, going with the theory he has played the Desert Swing well and is a 4 time winner on tour who is due his next win.
Benjamin Hebert 1 point ew 150/1: I highlighted him as a player to look out for this year and after last weeks 10th place finish to follow up his win at the Challenge Tour finale in Dubai its clear he enjoys the conditions of the desert Swing.
I was going to say he looks great value for this week and maybe he is, but if he doesn't finish top 5, then I'll admit Rory was better value.
European Tour Starting Balance = -31 points
Qatar Investment = 6 points
Balance Carried Forward = -37 points
Tournament Outright
Hideki Matsuyama, 1.5points ew 33/1, He had a great chance to win this event last year, but I remember thinking at the time, that the realization that the win was on got to him a little over the closing holes.
A few months later he did get his first win and has continued to prove himself to be a top class player, if he gets into contention again this Sunday, the added experience should help see him over the line.
Gary Woodland, 1.5 points ew 33/1, In a field of Watson, Speith, Kuchar, Fowler, Woods, Mickleson, Reed and Haas, Gary Woodland feels like a bit of a 'dark horse' this week and I really like his chances.
His first outing of 2015 was 2 weeks ago at The Sony Open, an event where he was yet to make the cut, this time round he finished 3rd. Though it was 10 shots behind winner Jimmy Walker, that result was eye catching from Woodland.
In 2011 he finished 5th here, shooting 4 rounds in the 60's. Two time winner on tour, wins coming in 2011 and 2013, timing is right for a win in 2015.
Nick Watney, 1 point ew 70/1, former world top 10 player, struggled for much of the last 12-18 months, in fact I believe last year was his worst year on tour.
He took a longer than usual winter break (10 weeks) and returned last week with a 14th place finish, which was his best result for some time, most encouraging was his second round where he took just 20 putts, as its the putting and short game rather than tee to green that deteriorated last season.
He has course form here, so if he can build on last weeks first outing and return to form, Nick Watney could make the 70/1 on offer look like a gift.
PGA TOUR STARTING BALANCE = -30 Points
Humana Challenge Investment = -8 Points
Balance Carried Forwards = -38 Points
Belated picks for the Desert Classic....
Grace...normally plays well in spells (how wrong can I be) 25/1
Willett..top 50 in World now, time to perform in some big name events 40/1
Rock..too good to stay in doldrums forever, has gone well on this course before 150/1
Got em on before the off, wish I hadn't made it in Graces case......
Good luck everybody