Well I managed to turn losses into profits last week, with a couple of in-running bets after round 3; Andy Sullivan without Schwartzel at 9/1 and Patrick Reed at 7/1.
However for my running profit/loss balance I am going to stick to just recording my pre-event picks.
I text my Abhu Dhabi picks to Neil last night and he replied 'Lol old habits....', which is exactly what I've been aiming to avoid, but having slept on it I'm still happy with my logic and reasons and anyway Neil can be a bit of a ****
Abu Dhabi
I expect another big week from Danny Willett, but at 28/1 there's no great value there, though with my R2D investment I'll still be looking out for him.
Clearly market leaders, Mcllroy, Kaymer, Stenson and Rose are going to be tough to beat, but recent results here have seen big priced winners, so there is hope.
First two picks are not particularly regulars for me:
Thorbjorn Olesen - 3 points ew 40/1 - Back in December, my mind was made up to back Olesen starting with the Desert Swing.
He won in Australia at the end of October, he finished 6th in the WGC in November and a not too shabby 12th in Dubai at the end of November.
He's a proven 'Desert Specialist' with course form here, a big week is expected.
Brendan Grace - 2 points ew 45/1 - After playing poorly for much of 2014, his game results picked up towards the end of the season. He then went a massive step further by winning the second event of the 20114/15 season.
A 15th place finish in South Africa last week was not to shabby for his first outing in 2015 and he has a 5th place finish in the record books here to add to the feel good factor.
Now for 2 old habits......
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 1.5 points ew 50/1 - The good points are that Rafa is absolutely a 'Desert Specialist' and he is on record as saying he's really comfortable on these courses. He's won in Dubai and he has good course form here.
On past research I recall that Cabrera-Bello and Jamie Donaldosn seem to play well on similar courses and events, 2012 winner in Abu Dhabi was Jamie Donaldon.
Cabrera-Bello finished off last season with a 9th place finish in Dubai, which after leading or being top 5 for most (69 holes) of the tournament, was probably the worst he could have finished, the positive is a top 10 finish is another good result in the desert, the downside is the 'blowup' was another tournament where Rafa showed a flaw in the mental side of his game.
Matthew Baldwin - 1 point ew 300/1 - yes the 300/1 drew me him, but I'd argue there's enough to suggest he is not without chance this week.
Last year Baldwin lead (tied with Cabrera-Bello) this event after day 1, before finishing a not too bad 19th. He's a player on 'the up' and that should translate to better game and more experience than last year.
Last but not least, golfers have their own social circles on tour, two of the players Matthew Baldwin is familiar with are last weeks winner Andy Sullivan and R2D leader Danny Willett, seeing the players you connect with succeed, can bring positives to the mental side of the game, the if he can do it, so I can I mentality.
European Tour Starting Balance = -4 points Abhu Dhabi Investment = 15 points Balance carried Forward = -19 points
Mark Leishman - 2points ew 40/1, has very good course form and has been threatening a second win on tour for a while now.
I don't think I've ever backed him before and I see Flash is also on this week, so now would be the time to get the second win.
Brendon Todd - 2 points ew 35/1, has decent form here, seems to play his best in these type of events.
Whenever I saw him last year, he looked impressive, I fancy it won't be long before he wins again, conditions should suit.
Kevin Na - 1.5 points ew 50/1, can be difficult to catch at the right time, seems to flit randomly in no particular order or sense, between golfing wilderness, top class golf and golfing mediocrity.
He does seem to have some type of consistency going here though, with three top 10's in recent years, 50/1could look a steel come Sunday.
Matt Jones - 1 point ew 150/1, a player that I know both JD and myself have shown a lot of faith in.
After finally getting his breakthrough win in April last year, he did next to nothing of note on the golf course for the rest of the year. His tied 11th last week was hopefully a significant sign of a return to form.
During his rookie and maiden years, this was a course where Matt Jones would often turn in one of his best performances of the season, so he obviously feels comfortable here.
PGA Tour Starting Balance = -4 points Sony Open Investment = 13 points Balance carried Forward = -17 points
So I'm running a book on Darty's *****, anyone fancy a wager? Wan@er 1/1 to@@er 3/1 dic@ 5/1 ace tipster 100/1
As for me, I've got more about me than picking the same golfer week in, week out. So my additions to Dubuisson @ 40/1 are George Coatzee @ 60/1 and Bernt Weisberger @ 80/1 all ew....
So I'm running a book on Darty's *****, anyone fancy a wager? Wan@er 1/1 to@@er 3/1 dic@ 5/1 ace tipster 100/1 As for me, I've got more about me than picking the same golfer week in, week out. So my additions to Dubuisson @ 40/1 are George Coatzee @ 60/1 and Bernt Weisberger @ 80/1 all ew.... Posted by joesman1
I'm not one for tipping favorites, but in that field I'd suggest focusing on those at the head of the market
Yes I don't think anyone could have predicted Kaymer's collapse today, he was priced up at 1/500 in running at one stage.
The old age adage of only bet what you can afford to lose would have been most appropriate today, because I'd have put the house on Kaymer cruising to victory.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi): [QUOTE]Yes I don't think anyone could have predicted Kaymer's collapse today, he was priced up at 1/500 in running at one stage. The old age adage of only bet what you can afford to lose would have been most appropriate today, because I'd have put the house on Kaymer cruising to victory. Posted by TheDart
I think in golf especially the swings in prices on the markets can be huge. Somone was 1/200 only last week or week before only to lose. Perhaps its the pressure to close out a tournament. It gets to them and they tighten up.
Don,t really know much about this guy but he looked a good price on oddchecker compared with other sites and wanted a bit of interest as i,ve not had a bet yet on this tournament
In the Open and US Open I had 66/1. In the Masters and USPGA I had 80/1. I think he is available at 100/1 for the US Open on Bet Victor though if you have an account with them. Didn't see the big odds difference until it was too late.
I like Victor myself and since I'm going to be looking out for him anyway with you guys supporting him, I've also joined the SkyPoker Victor Dubuisson fan club and backed Victor at 66/1 for The Open.
Complete blank last week with my selections, but after a bit of post event analysis, it's clear it wasn't my fault.
I picked the right players, its not my fault they all simply failed to perform!
I think there is a case to back Olesen, Grace and Carbrera-Bello again, but shorter prices for all 3 and some specific Qatar Open research, means I reluctantly drop the disgraced three players.
If George Coetzee and Thomas Aiken could team up as a better ball this week, they would surely romp home, George Coetzee has lead the putting stats for the last 2 years and was ranked 5th in putting 3 years ago.
Meanwhile Thomas Aiken has performed well despite some very poor putting stats.
Looking at the stats from past Qatar Open's its clear that some players really struggle on these greens whilst others excel, strangely Garcia and Westwood consistently rank high on the putting stats here though both are not known for their putting ability,
Last years runner up Miko Illonen has confirmed the importance of being able to putt here by saying...
"You have to learn the greens though as they have more grain than last week, as they are a little grassier, so getting to grips with those is the key to playing well."
Of course you can't get too hung up on the cold stats, as some humans have a habit of learning, so for example if Thomas Aiken suddenly finds a way to putt on these greens he should be very difficult to beat.
The other significant point that sticks out for me is that past winners and players who do well are links type players, players who do well in The Open, players who can play in the wind.
Past champions include, Paul Lawrie, Sergio, Ernie Els, Stenson, Scott, Andrew Coltart, Quiros and Chris Wood.
So taking all of the above into account and come up with a short list of around 20 players, the 4 +1, I am going with are:
Mikko Illonen - 1 point ew 50/1, last years runner up, ticks a lot of the right boxes.
Romain Wattell - 1 point ew 70/1, an improving record here, in finishing position and putting stats, was playing exceptionally well at the end of last season. A win from Gary Stal last week should give added inspiration.
Steve Webster - 1 point ew 80/1, 5th last year, 4th the year before, 12th in Abu Dhabi last week, no excuses not to do well this week.
Thomas Aitken - 1point ew, 100/1, two top 10's in The Open, he's managed a 5th and a 6th here in recent years despite performing poorly on the greens. Just in case he works out how to putt this week, I felt the 100/1 was just too big to ignore.
Matthew Baldwin - 2 points ew 300/1, my +1, to the 4 picks I was going to limit myself to and this week Matthew Baldwin is actually my main bet.
He missed the cut last week, but was extremely upbeat, declared tee to green his game remains in as good a shape as its ever been, struggled on the greens, but finished by saying he was very excited about something he'd work out about his putting over the closing holes of his second round.
He was 11 under here after 2 rounds last year and his putting stats for Qatar are on a strong upward trend.
If he was 33/1 I would still rate his chances but might look for value elsewhere, at 300/1 only a madman would ignore this opportunity!
European Tour Starting Balance = -19 points Qatar Investment = 12 points Balance Carried Forward = -31 points
I like Victor myself and since I'm going to be looking out for him anyway with you guys supporting him, I've also joined the SkyPoker Victor Dubuisson fan club and backed Victor at 66/1 for The Open. Posted by TheDart
Anyone want to purchase my Victor bets?? Selling at 1/2 price
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi) : Anyone want to purchase my Victor bets?? Selling at 1/2 price Posted by joesman1
With three different courses being played for the first 3 rounds, its difficult to get a fix on course form, though there are players with multiple good results here.
It seems some of the shortest and longest hitters have won this event, so again not easy to find the right player profile.
This event does produce the lowest scoring on the year, so it would suggest that getting to the green is easier than most weeks so players who can make more putts than most might have a slight advantage.
Harris English - 2points ew 30/1, noteworthy 3rd place finish last week on his first outing of 2105. Decent record here and can make putts from anywhere when the putter is hot.
Russell Knox -2 points ew 60/1, seeing him up on the leaderboards last week on a course where he had failed to make the cut in 3 previous attempts, put Knox on my radar.
Thirteenth here last year and shot a 59 on the web.com tour in 2013, which certainly demonstrates he has the ability to make the required bucket load of birdies.
Brendon Todd - 1.5 points ew 40/1, third time I've backed him on the bounce, so it's a last chance which needs to convert to third time lucky!
Steady if not spectacular results in Hawaii, so you would hope he has something to build on. He can also build on the memory's of the tied 6th in this event last year.
Ryo Ishikawa - 1 point ew 125/1, still only 23 years of age, he promised great things and still has time on his side.
Wayward driving has held him back at times, but he still managed his best year on tour last season.
The forgiving course setups should suit him here and I could see this being the type of event where Ishikawa takes back a bit of the limelight that Matsuyama stole from young Ryo.
PGA TOUR STARTING BALANCE = -17 Points Humana Challenge Investment = -13 Points Balance Carried Forwards = -30 Points
I fancy my chances this week. Think I've backed short enough prices for them to expect to be in contention. Bit worrying seeing Darty saying he had given up on Grace this week, when this is the week I've added him to my list...
I fancy my chances this week. Think I've backed short enough prices for them to expect to be in contention. Bit worrying seeing Darty saying he had given up on Grace this week, when this is the week I've added him to my list... Qatar Brandon Grace - 25/1 Tyrell Hatton - 50/1 Thomas Pieters - 50/1 Humana Ryan Palmer - 25/1 Charley Hoffman - 50/1 Posted by FlashFlush
I can only presume Neil has not seen this, or I can assure you he would have been straight in to have another dig at me and to tell you that the fact that I've given up on Grace is a good thing.
I've not given up on him as such, I reluctantly passed over him, in search of better ew value elsewhere, which is the very thing I set out not to do this year (ignore the obvious chances of those you fancy irrespective of their price).
I should have backed Olesen and Grace, I fancy them both, but swerved them for bigger priced players.
Actually Flash I like all your picks this week, hope your confidence is rewarded (a little bit).
Comments
However for my running profit/loss balance I am going to stick to just recording my pre-event picks.
I text my Abhu Dhabi picks to Neil last night and he replied 'Lol old habits....', which is exactly what I've been aiming to avoid, but having slept on it I'm still happy with my logic and reasons and anyway Neil can be a bit of a ****
Abu Dhabi
I expect another big week from Danny Willett, but at 28/1 there's no great value there, though with my R2D investment I'll still be looking out for him.
Clearly market leaders, Mcllroy, Kaymer, Stenson and Rose are going to be tough to beat, but recent results here have seen big priced winners, so there is hope.
First two picks are not particularly regulars for me:
Thorbjorn Olesen - 3 points ew 40/1 - Back in December, my mind was made up to back Olesen starting with the Desert Swing.
He won in Australia at the end of October, he finished 6th in the WGC in November and a not too shabby 12th in Dubai at the end of November.
He's a proven 'Desert Specialist' with course form here, a big week is expected.
Brendan Grace - 2 points ew 45/1 - After playing poorly for much of 2014, his game results picked up towards the end of the season. He then went a massive step further by winning the second event of the 20114/15 season.
A 15th place finish in South Africa last week was not to shabby for his first outing in 2015 and he has a 5th place finish in the record books here to add to the feel good factor.
Now for 2 old habits......
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 1.5 points ew 50/1 - The good points are that Rafa is absolutely a 'Desert Specialist' and he is on record as saying he's really comfortable on these courses. He's won in Dubai and he has good course form here.
On past research I recall that Cabrera-Bello and Jamie Donaldosn seem to play well on similar courses and events, 2012 winner in Abu Dhabi was Jamie Donaldon.
Cabrera-Bello finished off last season with a 9th place finish in Dubai, which after leading or being top 5 for most (69 holes) of the tournament, was probably the worst he could have finished, the positive is a top 10 finish is another good result in the desert, the downside is the 'blowup' was another tournament where Rafa showed a flaw in the mental side of his game.
Matthew Baldwin - 1 point ew 300/1 - yes the 300/1 drew me him, but I'd argue there's enough to suggest he is not without chance this week.
Last year Baldwin lead (tied with Cabrera-Bello) this event after day 1, before finishing a not too bad 19th. He's a player on 'the up' and that should translate to better game and more experience than last year.
Last but not least, golfers have their own social circles on tour, two of the players Matthew Baldwin is familiar with are last weeks winner Andy Sullivan and R2D leader Danny Willett, seeing the players you connect with succeed, can bring positives to the mental side of the game, the if he can do it, so I can I mentality.
European Tour Starting Balance = -4 points
Abhu Dhabi Investment = 15 points
Balance carried Forward = -19 points
Sony Open
Mark Leishman - 2points ew 40/1, has very good course form and has been threatening a second win on tour for a while now.
I don't think I've ever backed him before and I see Flash is also on this week, so now would be the time to get the second win.
Brendon Todd - 2 points ew 35/1, has decent form here, seems to play his best in these type of events.
Whenever I saw him last year, he looked impressive, I fancy it won't be long before he wins again, conditions should suit.
Kevin Na - 1.5 points ew 50/1, can be difficult to catch at the right time, seems to flit randomly in no particular order or sense, between golfing wilderness, top class golf and golfing mediocrity.
He does seem to have some type of consistency going here though, with three top 10's in recent years, 50/1could look a steel come Sunday.
Matt Jones - 1 point ew 150/1, a player that I know both JD and myself have shown a lot of faith in.
After finally getting his breakthrough win in April last year, he did next to nothing of note on the golf course for the rest of the year. His tied 11th last week was hopefully a significant sign of a return to form.
During his rookie and maiden years, this was a course where Matt Jones would often turn in one of his best performances of the season, so he obviously feels comfortable here.
PGA Tour Starting Balance = -4 points
Sony Open Investment = 13 points
Balance carried Forward = -17 points
Yes I don't think anyone could have predicted Kaymer's collapse today, he was priced up at 1/500 in running at one stage.
The old age adage of only bet what you can afford to lose would have been most appropriate today, because I'd have put the house on Kaymer cruising to victory.
[QUOTE]Yes I don't think anyone could have predicted Kaymer's collapse today, he was priced up at 1/500 in running at one stage. The old age adage of only bet what you can afford to lose would have been most appropriate today, because I'd have put the house on Kaymer cruising to victory.
Posted by TheDart
To Win
To Win
508
Complete blank last week with my selections, but after a bit of post event analysis, it's clear it wasn't my fault.
I picked the right players, its not my fault they all simply failed to perform!
I think there is a case to back Olesen, Grace and Carbrera-Bello again, but shorter prices for all 3 and some specific Qatar Open research, means I reluctantly drop the disgraced three players.
If George Coetzee and Thomas Aiken could team up as a better ball this week, they would surely romp home, George Coetzee has lead the putting stats for the last 2 years and was ranked 5th in putting 3 years ago.
Meanwhile Thomas Aiken has performed well despite some very poor putting stats.
Looking at the stats from past Qatar Open's its clear that some players really struggle on these greens whilst others excel, strangely Garcia and Westwood consistently rank high on the putting stats here though both are not known for their putting ability,
Last years runner up Miko Illonen has confirmed the importance of being able to putt here by saying...
Of course you can't get too hung up on the cold stats, as some humans have a habit of learning, so for example if Thomas Aiken suddenly finds a way to putt on these greens he should be very difficult to beat.
The other significant point that sticks out for me is that past winners and players who do well are links type players, players who do well in The Open, players who can play in the wind.
Past champions include, Paul Lawrie, Sergio, Ernie Els, Stenson, Scott, Andrew Coltart, Quiros and Chris Wood.
So taking all of the above into account and come up with a short list of around 20 players, the 4 +1, I am going with are:
Mikko Illonen - 1 point ew 50/1, last years runner up, ticks a lot of the right boxes.
Romain Wattell - 1 point ew 70/1, an improving record here, in finishing position and putting stats, was playing exceptionally well at the end of last season. A win from Gary Stal last week should give added inspiration.
Steve Webster - 1 point ew 80/1, 5th last year, 4th the year before, 12th in Abu Dhabi last week, no excuses not to do well this week.
Thomas Aitken - 1point ew, 100/1, two top 10's in The Open, he's managed a 5th and a 6th here in recent years despite performing poorly on the greens. Just in case he works out how to putt this week, I felt the 100/1 was just too big to ignore.
Matthew Baldwin - 2 points ew 300/1, my +1, to the 4 picks I was going to limit myself to and this week Matthew Baldwin is actually my main bet.
He missed the cut last week, but was extremely upbeat, declared tee to green his game remains in as good a shape as its ever been, struggled on the greens, but finished by saying he was very excited about something he'd work out about his putting over the closing holes of his second round.
He was 11 under here after 2 rounds last year and his putting stats for Qatar are on a strong upward trend.
If he was 33/1 I would still rate his chances but might look for value elsewhere, at 300/1 only a madman would ignore this opportunity!
European Tour Starting Balance = -19 points
Qatar Investment = 12 points
Balance Carried Forward = -31 points
With three different courses being played for the first 3 rounds, its difficult to get a fix on course form, though there are players with multiple good results here.
It seems some of the shortest and longest hitters have won this event, so again not easy to find the right player profile.
This event does produce the lowest scoring on the year, so it would suggest that getting to the green is easier than most weeks so players who can make more putts than most might have a slight advantage.
Harris English - 2points ew 30/1, noteworthy 3rd place finish last week on his first outing of 2105. Decent record here and can make putts from anywhere when the putter is hot.
Russell Knox - 2 points ew 60/1, seeing him up on the leaderboards last week on a course where he had failed to make the cut in 3 previous attempts, put Knox on my radar.
Thirteenth here last year and shot a 59 on the web.com tour in 2013, which certainly demonstrates he has the ability to make the required bucket load of birdies.
Brendon Todd - 1.5 points ew 40/1, third time I've backed him on the bounce, so it's a last chance which needs to convert to third time lucky!
Steady if not spectacular results in Hawaii, so you would hope he has something to build on. He can also build on the memory's of the tied 6th in this event last year.
Ryo Ishikawa - 1 point ew 125/1, still only 23 years of age, he promised great things and still has time on his side.
Wayward driving has held him back at times, but he still managed his best year on tour last season.
The forgiving course setups should suit him here and I could see this being the type of event where Ishikawa takes back a bit of the limelight that Matsuyama stole from young Ryo.
PGA TOUR STARTING BALANCE = -17 Points
Humana Challenge Investment = -13 Points
Balance Carried Forwards = -30 Points
I've not given up on him as such, I reluctantly passed over him, in search of better ew value elsewhere, which is the very thing I set out not to do this year (ignore the obvious chances of those you fancy irrespective of their price).
I should have backed Olesen and Grace, I fancy them both, but swerved them for bigger priced players.
Actually Flash I like all your picks this week, hope your confidence is rewarded (a little bit).