Hi Folks, Regarding picks for the Masters, have a look at this link. I use this guys stat info for identifying weakness and strength, in my own playing and coaching. he collates stats from every US tour event, you can also buy his yearly synopsis for a few dollars. It also has some info on likely winners at different tour venues. Over the years he has had great success picking 'horses for courses' see what you think http://www.golfwrx.com/294081/the-21-golfers-who-can-actually-win-the-masters/ Neil Posted by HENDRIK62
No offence Mr HENDRIK62, but I've read such tripe lol... I quote:-
"Unfortunately, I have to eliminate five international players because I do not have enough statistical information on their playing performance in the past four months. Last year, I eliminated five international players that I had insufficient data on as well. Only one of them made a minor run at winning — Thomas Bjorn, who finished T8.
The four players include:
Thomas Bjorn (300/1)
Darren Clarke (1000/1)
Stephen Gallacher (300/1)
Braden Grace (200/1)
Mikko Ilonen (500/1)
It's his job to gather this information. Grace has won TWICE ffs lol.... Ilonen is the current world matchplay champion.
His next fab quote:-
Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:
Jim Furyk (70/1)
Zach Johnson (60/1)
Really???
After some more utter tripe he comes out with his best one:-
Of those 22 players, here are my top-10 picks to win the Masters:
Rory McIlroy (8/1)
Jordan Spieth (8/1)
Bubba Watson (10/1)
Jason Day (12/1)
Dustin Johnson (12/1)
Adam Scott (20/1)
Jimmy Walker (18/1)
J.B. Holmes (35/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (60/1)
Paul Casey (70/1)
Good luck picking all the above and somehow make a profit.
Seriously, there's a few who post on here who would put that fella to shame.
Obv now I've put this post up, he WILL bag the winner, and SOMEHOW show a profit.
I only posted this as I thought it might help, however let me take a few points.
Z johnston won before the course was lengthened changing all the landing areas.
He only uses his stat metrics not performance or wins, hence the Euro and Asia based players are not included.
His elimination or inclusion of players is purely based on his stats not prices or gut feelings.
Just thought some of you savvy gents could look for some of the players outwith the short priced favourites that may fit the criteria required to win at Augusta
Like anything stats based, it is dependant on which metrics are measured, but these have certainly proven very useful over the years.
Mmmm, I only posted this as I thought it might help, however let me take a few points. Z johnston won before the course was lengthened changing all the landing areas. He only uses his stat metrics not performance or wins, hence the Euro and Asia based players are not included. His elimination or inclusion of players is purely based on his stats not prices or gut feelings. Just thought some of you savvy gents could look for some of the players outwith the short priced favourites that may fit the criteria required to win at Augusta Like anything stats based, it is dependant on which metrics are measured, but these have certainly proven very useful over the years. Anyway, wish you all well, enjoy the Tourney. Neil Posted by HENDRIK62
My post wasn't aimed at u mate. Just my bored at the time/witty/sarcy side showing through when nothing better to do. But it was funny that he'd narrowed it down to 10-12 picks, and picked all the favs.
Love the Masters. My favourite Major (& most profitable)
Been betting on this event for 18 years and got the winner 12 times plus a multitude of place winners including 6 of the last 8 winners including Cabrera at 100/1 and other big prices on Singh, Weir, Johnson, Immelman & Schwartzel.
I have gone for Dustin Johnson & Adam Scott (both backed ante post each way) as my main bets this year with a small bet on Cabrera at 125/1, again e/w.
Also like 100/1 (e/w) on Couples to be first round leader. He has a habit of a good first round score although the draw might be a bit against him this year. Think he could be value to win his 3ball against Grace (usually slow first round player) & Jaidee at 15/8.
Fowler isn't on form but always does well in Majors and can be backed at 9/1 for a Top Five finish or 9/2 for a Top Ten finish. Both seem to be value.
Pretty much, the odds are correct and I would probably trade all my bets to see Rory win.
Well so much for my no more bets on the Masters! A very quiet week at work and a winning football accumulator on Tuesday put an end to that.. My full list of bets..
Outright e/w bets:
Jimmy Walker - 22/1 - Under rated and has won 20% of starts this season and also 2nd in a play off.
Tiger Woods - 45/1 (According to a lot of reports this week he will win by about 50 shots)
Victor Dubuisson 80/1 - Neil's fault
Jason Dufner - 150/1 - Single life may spur him on, very much an outside pick.
Top Debutant:
Brooks Koepka - 4/1 - Already won on the PGA tour and I feel has a big advantage over the rest in this market.
Top Nationality accumulator:
Top WelshmanJamie Donaldson @ 1/25
Top ScottishStephen Gallacher @ 1/7
Top ScandinavianHenrik Stenson @ 4/9
Top KoreanSang-Moon Bae @ 4/7
Top GermanMartin Kaymer @ 2/5
Top AsianHideki Matsuyama @ 8/11
Doubles with the Grand National (Purely gambling now lol)
Still couldn't commit to just one of the leading fancies, instead backed my own strongly fancied rags in the without Rory, Spieth, Bubba and Day market.
Russell Henley - 75/1 ew first 5 Branden Grace - 80/1 ew first 5
Added
Brandt Snedeker - 55/1 ew first 6 Gary Woodland - 125/1 ew first 5
and some bloke called Tiger Woods at 45/1 ew first 5
and since I'm sadly unlikely to get to see the last 3 days play, today is my cup final and FRL bets are on:
All ew first 5 Tiger Woods - 35/1 Brandt Snedeker - 40/1 JB Homes - 50/1 Gary Woodland - 66/1 Bill Haas - 70/1 Branden Grace - 125/1 Russell Henley - 130/1
Ok so was just discussing golf bets with a few ppl in work as someone brought up the 3pm coffees. I was saying I think I should have backed stenson. I take the lid of my coffee and there in the froth is a clear "S" lol
Ok so was just discussing golf bets with a few ppl in work as someone brought up the 3pm coffees. I was saying I think I should have backed stenson. I take the lid of my coffee and there in the froth is a clear "S" lol End result - fiver on stenson. Who needs research Posted by jdsallstar
Hahaha I think that beats my bet I did because of a dream a few months back
Just to add one more pick and make them all public. After Charley Hoffman's fast start I backed him while Sky still had him at 100/1. Others were down to 50's and 60's.
Just to add one more pick and make them all public. After Charley Hoffman' s fast start I backed him while Sky still had him at 100/1 . Others were down to 50's and 60's. Posted by FlashFlush
Nice spot. I remember having £2 on darren Clarke on 365 at 150/1 for the Open. As i put the bet on he putted a long put for birdie so i put got another £2 on str8 away before the price changed. Probably by biggest ever priced win. It just shows though if your on the ball esp. in golf you can often get good prices if your quick enough and have money in many different accounts
With Jordan Speith now best priced at 2/1 it gives more value for the rest of the field . His driving still looks a bit suspect although he seems to be getting away with it at the moment
Well i would have taken that 1st round leader result before the start!
2x 125/1 places with C.Hoffman and E.Els .I don't know where Ernie pulled that round from on current form but obviously the majors must make a difference.
Well i would have taken that 1st round leader result before the start! 2x 125/1 places with C.Hoffman and E.Els .I don't know where Ernie pulled that round from on current form but obviously the majors must make a difference. Posted by Any2Suited
And I'm thinking wtf!!! All my eggs in the 72 hole market. Well done
I,ve already put to many bets on but for next year i.ll just stick to players who have the most experience rounf this course.
It was interseting watching Jack Nicklaus commentating yesterday. He called just about every put - which way it broke - and explained how the brks were so misleading. Experience is huge round Augusta and is showing with the likes of Els and Cuoples in recent years and probaly the best putter on the PGA tour atm with Jordan Speith
Just hope the weather gets a bit harder for the later starters tommrow as by the way its goin it could be all over before Sunday with Speith now at -9
EDIt - With Speith at -11 he should get the worse conditions tommorow so laid him off for £30 as he,s now odds on
Well done all who made any kind of return, especially Neil as I'm sure you had a few shiny pennies built up on Jordan!
Thanks to The Package being a NR in the national, my doubled with him actually paid out as singles, so I did get a few quid back on Jordan and Rory (Only enough to cover that initial bet though).
Thanks Charles. Yep was the best ever return for me, but tbf, I'd being banging the drums about his play/form since November last year. I must admit, I was a bit worried when he returned from his winter break, but he then explained he'd not touched a club in 6 weeks, resulting in his slow start, seems a master stroke now.
The Lucky 15 now has a fab start, and in the days leading up to the U S Open my adrenalin is sure to kick in. Though I'm very aware I've had a stupidly good start to the year on the PGA front. I think its now 5 wins, a Stenson meltdown, a DJ play off loss, and a Henley 66/1 and Bradley (part place) 40/1 place in the last 8 weeks. So the chances of the run good continuing through to June and beyond are next to minimal. But hey ho, we can all dream.
Well done Neil on the Masters result. Triple dip sandwiches must be the way forward. Also great to have the 1st one up in a season long Lucky 15.Good Luck with Victor,DJ and Walker.
Comments
"Unfortunately, I have to eliminate five international players because I do not have enough statistical information on their playing performance in the past four months. Last year, I eliminated five international players that I had insufficient data on as well. Only one of them made a minor run at winning — Thomas Bjorn, who finished T8.
The four players include:
His next fab quote:-
Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:
Of those 22 players, here are my top-10 picks to win the Masters:
Still couldn't commit to just one of the leading fancies, instead backed my own strongly fancied rags in the without Rory, Spieth, Bubba and Day market.
Russell Henley - 75/1 ew first 5
Branden Grace - 80/1 ew first 5
Added
Brandt Snedeker - 55/1 ew first 6
Gary Woodland - 125/1 ew first 5
and some bloke called Tiger Woods at 45/1 ew first 5
and since I'm sadly unlikely to get to see the last 3 days play, today is my cup final and FRL bets are on:
All ew first 5
Tiger Woods - 35/1
Brandt Snedeker - 40/1
JB Homes - 50/1
Gary Woodland - 66/1
Bill Haas - 70/1
Branden Grace - 125/1
Russell Henley - 130/1