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Get in the Hole! 2017 Season!

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  • FlashFlushFlashFlush Member Posts: 4,494
    edited April 2015
    Hopefully I can turn this golfing lull around and get a winner this week. Dropped in the FR2D from 25th to outside the top 1000 now! So the dream is quickly vanishing.

    China

    Bubba Watson - 6/1 - Not exactly an out-there pick, but from what i can see the fairways are wide and generous with quite short rough, so bombers can take advantage of that. There is plenty of water on the back 9, but doesn't sound like it's overly intimidating. Bubba, considering his length actually hit's it fairly accurately which surprises a lot of people.

    Morten Orum Madsen - 33/1 - Had some decent top 20 results this season, and was T19 here lats year in between plenty of missed CUTS, so he must feel comfortable here.

    Chris Wood - 66/1 - Lots of hype around Chris in his last event saying he was back from injury and looking like his old self again. I think 66/1 is very long if this is true.

    Alvaro Quiros - 66/1 - Best finish this season is 20th (twice). But if I'm right about this being a bombers course, he can deffo do well. He finished 3rd here last year.

    RBC Heritage

    Zach Johnson - 16/1 - Only had 1 good result here but this should set up perfectly for him. Looked good at the Masters, so every chance here.

    Russell Henley - 40/1 - Having a good year. MC lat year, but 6th the year before that. 

    Brandt Snedeker - 28/1 - 4 top 10's in 12 starts, one of which was a win at Pebble Beach. Should be a course that sets up for him. Won back in 2011



    50p e/w doubles on all but £5 win only double on Bubba and Zach!!
  • TheDartTheDart Member Posts: 1,581
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!):
    Hopefully I can turn this golfing lull around and get a winner this week. Dropped in the FR2D from 25th to outside the top 1000 now! So the dream is quickly vanishing. China Bubba Watson - 6/1 - Not exactly an out-there pick, but from what i can see the fairways are wide and generous with quite short rough, so bombers can take advantage of that. There is plenty of water on the back 9, but doesn't sound like it's overly intimidating. Bubba, considering his length actually hit's it fairly accurately which surprises a lot of people. Morten Orum Madsen - 33/1 - Had some decent top 20 results this season, and was T19 here lats year in between plenty of missed CUTS, so he must feel comfortable here. Chris Wood - 66/1 - Lots of hype around Chris in his last event saying he was back from injury and looking like his old self again. I think 66/1 is very long if this is true. Alvaro Quiros - 66/1 - Best finish this season is 20th (twice). But if I'm right about this being a bombers course, he can deffo do well. He finished 3rd here last year. RBC Heritage Zach Johnson - 16/1 - Only had 1 good result here but this should set up perfectly for him. Looked good at the Masters, so every chance here. Russell Henley - 40/1 - Having a good year. MC lat year, but 6th the year before that.  Brandt Snedeker - 28/1 - 4 top 10's in 12 starts, one of which was a win at Pebble Beach. Should be a course that sets up for him. Won back in 2011 50p e/w doubles on all but £5 win only double on Bubba and Zach!!
    Posted by FlashFlush
    Hey flash, don't know if you have realized that the Shenzen International event is being played on the same course as last years Volvo China Open, where last year you wrote...

    Volvo China -  Looks like a mixed course but with quite a few long par 4's, so considering there is no course history I've gone with the bombers with a big hitting outsider...

    Nicholas Colsaerts - 20/1

    Alvaro Quiros - 50/1

    Alexander Levy - 125/1


    that ended up with a 125/1 winner and a 50/1 third for you, so I'd say you are right to go with the bombers theory ;)


  • TheDartTheDart Member Posts: 1,581
    edited April 2015
    Shenzen International

    Tried to keep it simple this week and gone with first impressions as opposed to 30 player short list that gets whittled down after a few hours research analysis:

    Thomas Pieters - 66/1, On recognizing last years Volvo China Open was held on this course, I remembered Flash's theory of this being a bombers course and how he came up with a 125/1 winner in Alexander Levy.

    Based on that I could have backed Levy this time round or big hitting Bubba, I dithered over Quiros and Colsaerts but instead have gone for big hitting Thomas Pieters, who has looked close to a first win for a few months now and should definitely be suited to this course.

    Tommy Fleetwood - 28/1, second to Levy at this course last year and came up on my radar as looking to be approaching top form again.

    Emiliano Grillo - 28/1, played extremely well tee to green last year (first for driving distance, 2nd for GIR), but putted very poorly (56th of 57 players whose putting stats were recorded over the weekend).

    His putting stats are massively improved this year and of course he lost in a playoff on the PGA Tour last month.

    Grillo gets my full support as my main bet this week.
  • TheDartTheDart Member Posts: 1,581
    edited April 2015
    RBC Heritage

    Taken the advice of a certain winning punter here and again gone with my first impressions and not over analyzed it:


    Russell Henley - 40/1, gave me a nice return at 125/1 2 weeks ago, had his best Masters last week, 6th here 2 years ago.

    I see Flash is also on and I believe that certain winning punter is also on Henley this week, so what could go wrong!

    Kevin Streelman - 66/1, noted he had a very good Masters and has at least one decent top 10 on this course. Current form and course form boxes satisfactorily ticked.

    Johnson Wagner - 150/1, loved his attitude 2 weeks ago when just losing out to JB Holmes in a play off. No idea if he has any course form, but if he can carry forward some of the momentum from two weeks ago, he's proved he won't buckle under pressure if he gets near the leaderboard.
  • joesman1joesman1 Member Posts: 2,053
    edited April 2015
    Had a spot of bother getting my bets on this week... #smartarsebookiebasher. Anyways eventually got there as far as PGA is concerned. Main fancy this week is Bill Haas ew @ 30/1, followed by Zach Johnson ew @ 20/1 and 18/1, and finally Russell Henley ew @ 40/1 and 35/1. Hoping it's a bridge too far for Spieth, and he suffers a burn out. If he doesn't, he could/prob win again. 

    European picks to follow:-

    Main fancy Fattybarnrat ew @ 40/1, followed by Grillo ew @ 28/1, and finally Pieters ew @ 66/1 - bombers are us!!!
  • joesman1joesman1 Member Posts: 2,053
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!):
    Well done Neil on the Masters result. Triple dip sandwiches must be the way forward. Also great to have the 1st one up in a season long Lucky 15.Good Luck with Victor,DJ and Walker.
    Posted by Any2Suited
    Thank you Any2
  • joesman1joesman1 Member Posts: 2,053
    edited April 2015
    So Mssrs Zachary, Henley, Grillo, and Pieters have the weight of the community on their shoulders. I see many disappointend punters come Sunday night, and shares in the bookmaking industry on the rise. 
  • TheDartTheDart Member Posts: 1,581
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!):
    So Mssrs Zachary, Henley, Grillo, and Pieters have the weight of the community on their shoulders. I see many disappointend punters come Sunday night, and shares in the bookmaking industry on the rise. 
    Posted by joesman1
    Well you wondering how long your run good could last. You may well have got your answer on this thread :)

    Then again if Bill Haas and Aphibarnrat win this week I will be trying to self exclude myself from this forum!


  • FlashFlushFlashFlush Member Posts: 4,494
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!):
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!) : Hey flash, don't know if you have realized that the Shenzen International event is being played on the same course as last years Volvo China Open, where last year you wrote... Volvo China -  Looks like a mixed course but with quite a few long par 4's, so considering there is no course history I've gone with the bombers with a big hitting outsider... Nicholas Colsaerts - 20/1 Alvaro Quiros - 50/1 Alexander Levy - 125/1 that ended up with a 125/1 winner and a 50/1 third for you, so I'd say you are right to go with the bombers theory ;)
    Posted by TheDart
    Ha ha. As soon as I saw Levy won it last year, I remembered that I had the winner. Yes, I did realise it was the same course, but didn't realise I had Quiros last year as well. Bit more of the same this year then please. :)
  • joesman1joesman1 Member Posts: 2,053
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!):
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!) : Well you wondering how long your run good could last. You may well have got your answer on this thread :) Then again if Bill Haas and Aphibarnrat win this week I will be trying to self exclude myself from this forum!
    Posted by TheDart
    I've obv just done an ew double... 30/1 @ 28/1.... Good luck the forum lol.....
  • TheDartTheDart Member Posts: 1,581
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!):
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (THE MASTERS!) : Well you wondering how long your run good could last. You may well have got your answer on this thread :) Then again if Bill Haas and Aphibarnrat win this week I will be trying to self exclude myself from this forum!
    Posted by TheDart
    I would just like to point out the importance and meaning of the word 'and' in the above statement :)

    Mind you I wouldn't bet against a 59 from Bill Haas this afternoon.

    Seems like I've said this before.....

    Well done on another great pick and win Neil.

    Actually that might be your biggest priced winner this year, so it just gets better!




  • FlashFlushFlashFlush Member Posts: 4,494
    edited April 2015
    Great work AGAIN!

    I was going to leave the golf betting for a few weeks as I've been nowhere with my picks and it just so happens it coincides with me sunning myself in Cyprus for 10 days from Friday morning, so comes at the perfect time. I'll keep an eye on the scores while I'm out there and hopefully come back with some better picks!
  • joesman1joesman1 Member Posts: 2,053
    edited April 2015
    Sorry forum, but couldn't quite consign Mr Dart to the trash bin. I obv' spent too long studying the Euro Tour after not having a winner on that tour (Spieth apart, oh and DJ in the WGC too) since Sullivan in February, and took my eye off the PGA Tour, #mustdobetter lol. Seriously though, I'm over the moon to follow my best ever return last week, with my 2nd best ever return this week. And tbh I'm just as happy for a few mates outside this forum that have been following me the past few weeks. And no, those peskie bookies won't be getting it back, I've put plans in place to stop that happening. Neil 
  • joesman1joesman1 Member Posts: 2,053
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (RBC Heritage + Shenxhen International):
    Great work AGAIN! I was going to leave the golf betting for a few weeks as I've been nowhere with my picks and it just so happens it coincides with me sunning myself in Cyprus for 10 days from Friday morning, so comes at the perfect time. I'll keep an eye on the scores while I'm out there and hopefully come back with some better picks!
    Posted by FlashFlush
    Enjoy Charles
  • TheDartTheDart Member Posts: 1,581
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (RBC Heritage + Shenxhen International):
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (RBC Heritage + Shenxhen International) : Enjoy Charles
    Posted by joesman1
    +1

    Have a good holiday Charles.

    I'll try and keep Neil focused on picking the winners, whilst you are away.
  • TheDartTheDart Member Posts: 1,581
    edited April 2015
    Volvo China Open

    Course form from the Asian Open between 2004-2008, might not the best way of looking for players who have performed well here before, the one former winner in the field this week is Raphael Jacquelin and he remains an untouched 100/1 shot.

    Past course records do seem to suggest that unlike last week there doesn't appear to be any advantage for the bombers this week. On the other hand a player who can hit GIR more often than most does look to be important. 

    Tommy Fleetwood - 20/1, I was on him last week and he finished one shot off the playoff, I'd decided I was backing him this week no matter what. On putting a vaule on high GIR this week, I checked the GIR stats for last week, last week the player that hit more greens in regulation than any one else...............Tommt Fleetwood. Say no more 20/1 ew.

    Tom Lewis - 66/1, good tied 4th last week, another player hitting greens for fun at the moment. Probably won too early in his career, but is certainly going to win many more tournaments and looks like his game is ready for the second win.

    Matteo Mannaserro - 150/1, in the good old days when I was good at picking big priced winners (and Neil only won once a month), I'd be getting very excited about Matteo Maneserro this week, instead I'm quietly optimistic.

    Completely lost his game,  partly on purpose as I believe he decided to make some changes to his swing / technique.

    Last week's tied 29th was his best finish since last years Open, possibly more significantly, he was tied 4th for GIR for the week on a course that shouldn't have really suited him as he remains one of the shorter hitters in the game.

    This course should suit Manaserro and if he is back in control of his game, 150/1 is way too big for a 4 time winner on tour.


     
  • TheDartTheDart Member Posts: 1,581
    edited April 2015
    Zurich Classic

    I can't really find any particular area to focus on in this event, plenty of first time winners in recent years, suggests course form might not be that significant, then again I don't think the fields have been blessed with many of the top players.

    This year sees the likes of DJ, Rose, Day and Fowler tee it up, so from a betting perspective I think that just makes it more difficult.


    Morgan Hoffman - 50/1, seems to be playing well and getting on leaderboards most weeks, he could easily add to the recent trend of first time winners here.

    Justin Thomas - 50/1, a highly promising player who is in danger of becoming more famous for being Jordan Spieths mate, rather than a top talent in his own right.

    Hopefully for mine and Justin Thomas's sake he can win this week and be referred to as the Zurich Classic champion.

    Lucas Glover - 150/1, surprised myself that Lucas Glover made it to the 'confirm bet' button, this was not the plan on Monday morning.

    He has started to show flashes of form in recent weeks and he's up amongst recent winners for a number of key stats.

    Also has good course form, even when he's come to the event in the middle of a slump. Looks good value at 150/1.
  • FlashFlushFlashFlush Member Posts: 4,494
    edited April 2015
    I've noticed Mannaserro creeping back inside the cut line recently as well and I noticed his big price. I was under the impression looking at the course card it might be a bit long for him, but you've looked into it a lot more than I have. May have a little flutter after all, 1 on each tour for interests sake. I'll see what the birthday boy has to offer up before stealing your tips :)
  • joesman1joesman1 Member Posts: 2,053
    edited April 2015
    Here goes.... Made my decisions and got my bets on early this week, just been busy all day ferrying around my very newly born step grand-daughter. Yep, it's now official, I'm an auld ba@tard!!!

    In Europe its Mr Fleetwood the main bet ew @ 20/1. Levy ew @ 28/1. Finally I got the early 50/1 about Howell, again ew.

    Over the pond, my main bet is Rose ew and win only @ 10/1. Justin Thomas ew @ 40/1. Overton ew @ 100/1, and top 10 19/2. Streb ew @ 100/1 and 90/1. Finally Mcgirt ew @ 150/1. 

    One last bet was an ew double on Fleetwood and Rose.

    Gl everyone. 
  • joesman1joesman1 Member Posts: 2,053
    edited April 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (RBC Heritage + Shenxhen International):
    Volvo China Open Course form from the Asian Open between 2004-2008, might not the best way of looking for players who have performed well here before, the one former winner in the field this week is Raphael Jacquelin and he remains an untouched 100/1 shot. Past course records do seem to suggest that unlike last week there doesn't appear to be any advantage for the bombers this week. On the other hand a player who can hit GIR more often than most does look to be important.  Tommy Fleetwood - 20/1, I was on him last week and he finished one shot off the playoff, I'd decided I was backing him this week no matter what. On putting a vaule on high GIR this week, I checked the GIR stats for last week, last week the player that hit more greens in regulation than any one else...............Tommt Fleetwood. Say no more 20/1 ew. Tom Lewis - 66/1, good tied 4th last week, another player hitting greens for fun at the moment. Probably won too early in his career, but is certainly going to win many more tournaments and looks like his game is ready for the second win. Matteo Mannaserro - 150/1, in the good old days when I was good at picking big priced winners (and Neil only won once a month), I'd be getting very excited about Matteo Maneserro this week, instead I'm quietly optimistic. Completely lost his game,  partly on purpose as I believe he decided to make some changes to his swing / technique. Last week's tied 29th was his best finish since last years Open, possibly more significantly, he was tied 4th for GIR for the week on a course that shouldn't have really suited him as he remains one of the shorter hitters in the game. This course should suit Manaserro and if he is back in control of his game, 150/1 is way too big for a 4 time winner on tour.  
    Posted by TheDart
    I'm sad to report that Mr Tom Lewis is the headline tip/bet in The Racing Post in Europe this week. I can't remember the last time he had consecutive winning tips. 

    Btw his headline tip/bet over the pond is...... Justin Rose... Sigh!!!!


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