The Irish Open is back at the K Club & while we have some course form, it is a bit dated. Rory McIlroy is the 4/1 Favourite with other names including Willett, Lowry, Knox, Luiten, McDowell & Westwood.
I can find reasons for not backing any of the above - McIlroy just isn't a worthy 4/1 favourite, Willett seems under cooked, Lowry is poor value at 18/1, Knox doesn't justify 28/1, Luiten has form but is probably too short, McDowell & Westwood need to step up to win. All which leaves me looking for longer shots.
My gut feeling is that the course will favour GIR players but not 100% on this so being flexible.
Rafael Cabrera Bello 35/1
I think length could be a great advantage here & RCB has been pretty consistent this season. He had a bad week last week at Sawgrass but before that had seven Top 20 finishes out of eight, four of them Top Five finishes. He is much improved around the green & he will be winning soon.
Thorbjorn Olesen 55/1
Olesen is a bit inconsistent but if he can put four decent rounds together then he should go close at a decent price. He often performs well in poor conditions and the forecast is that there may be wind & rain.
Andrew Johnston 80/1
Won the Spanish Open last month where he topped the stats for GIR & Driving Accuracy, qualities that will see him right up there. Far better form than most of the favourites here and great value.
I quite like Luiten 33/1, Wiesberger 40/1, Rock 100/1, Lorenzo-Vera 300/1,
Plenty of course form here on a course which favours the bombers, particularly those who can hit the ball in windy conditions.
Speith is the favourite at 8/1, followed by Dustin Johnson, Kuchar & Garcia. Hard to go with Speith at that price although he will surely get back to his best sooner rather than later. Dustin is well suited by this course but I cannot go with 8/1 about a player with one win in three years. Kuchar & Garcia are players that I avoid so we can look at better priced players to take on the favourites.
Charley Hoffman 28/1
Won the Texas Open last month which shows a liking for playing in this area and also that he is in form. He was second here last year so clearly likes the course. Looks great value at the price.
Marc Leishman 33/1
A big hitter who should be suited by this course where he has two top three finishes. If he can put four decent rounds together, he could go close.
Danny Lee 60/1
Lee has home course advantage as he is based at this course. Looked to be finding his form with a tied 9th finish at the Wells Fargo earlier this month so everything could just fall in line for him at a decent price.
Going for Scott Piercy at 50/1 for FRL. He has shot a first round 66 three times here.
Willett not as impresssive in Round Two so I laid off for my original stake at 2.58 so am freerolling the profit already made. Still think he is the most likely winner but less confident.
In an attempt to inject a differnt angle to this golf betting lark and hopefully bring a little added interest to these pages.
I've decided to set myself a challenge, but my all means, lurkers and Ice Tiger, please feel free to follow or join in.
Based on my soft spot for backing a players at big odds.
The objective is to back 5 players in an event at no lower than 80/1.
I will still have my main picks for an event, but I am going to focus a little more on the 'rags' in the field, as I believe that most weeks in a field of 156 players, there can be up to 140 players who have the ability to win.
I will keep a running tally on both tours, staking £1ew on five 80/1 shots or bigger.
So £10 invested in each invent, means we are looking for a minimum of an 80/1 place return every two weeks, which is actually far from easy.
I'll keep it going until I hit a £100 loss on each tour, or should I say IF I hit a £100 loss.
Of course I'm hoping to actually make a bit of money, but first objectives are a bit of fun and a run for my money.
European Tour Long Shot Challenge
Week 1 - BMW PGA Championship
I genuinely belive this is one of those tournaments where literlaly 140 of the 156 players could win.
At least we get a small helping hand from the bookies this win, with 6 places paid.
Peter Hanson - 80/1 - First off, we have Peter Hanson. After a long spell out injured, he has put together a very decent run of tournaments since September last year, highlight being a 6th place finish in the China Open at the beginning of May.
He messed that up last week with a first missed cut in 2016, but he was in the wrong side of the draw, so I'm not going to worry about to much about that.
He has some steady if not spectacular form around here, but after starting 2015 with 3 missed cuts he came to this event and finished 27th, which shows he can play well around here even when he's not on top of his game.
Pablo Larrazabal - 125/1 - you'd be hard pushed to find a 125/1 shot with more confidence than Pablo Larzabal.
Consistency and possibly too much agression can be his downfall, but he's proved when he has everything under control he can win on some of the toughest courses on tour.
Played here 7 times, with 3 missed cuts and 2 top 12's, so come Friday evening we should know where we stand.
Thomas Aiken - 100/1 - Playing the majority of his golf on the PGA Tour this year, where his best finish has been a tied 15th.
He actually leads the PGA Tour on Driving and is ranked 8th for GIR, giving him a combined ranking of 4th for ball striking, which is very impressive.
On the other hand a ranking of 200th for putting average is diabolical and if there was any doubt, tells Thomas and everybody else what is holding him back.
He's always been a tee to green player and a streaky putter, which when working has helped him to three wins on tour.
Finished 7th here in 2014, so back on his 'home' tour and familiar greens where he has putted well before, Thomas Aiken could just find his comfort zone once again.
Sebastien Gros - 125/1, debut appearance at this event, but as An proved last year, it's not impossible to win first time around here.
Rookie season on tour and looks to be finding his feet, tied 10th last week despite a quadrule bogey. Potentially has the game tee to green that should suit Wentworth.
Felipe Aguilar - 150/1, finished 11th here last year, also has a 13th and 16th place finish, so when on his game he obviously enjoys Wentworth.
So thats three top 16 finished, he's played the event on 5 other occassions and missed the cut every time, so when not on his game, like most players he won't survive.
Finshed second at the beginning of May and has some good results in big events, not a bad profile for a 150/1 shot.
A relatively weak field for this prestigeous event with Willett the only Top Twenty player here. Cannot go with him after last week but going for a couple of players that have gone close recently.
Shane Lowry 16/1
Been a fan of Lowry for a while but he has lost form for a while but there have been recent signs that he is back to his best and he does tend to do well when the summer hits. Three top six finishes here in the past five seasons.
Russell Knox 18/1
Knox has been up there for some time & seems to be hitting form now & is targeting a Ryder Cup place. He was 2nd last week at the Irish Open & was only pipped by a rampant McIlroy. Should be close.
Rafael Cabrera Bello 25/1
Much more consistent now with recent finishes of 2nd - 2nd - 36th - 11th - 3rd - 17th - 16th - 8th. Feel a win is very close & it could be this week.
Peter Hanson 80/1
Starting to hit forn, leading up to a 6th in China four weeks ago. Ignore last week - half the field were ruled out by the draw. Should be ideally suited by the course here.
Francesco Molinari has an excellent record here but doubt he will win it so am going for the 2/1 for a top Ten finish.
Martin Kaymer - 25/1, low round of the week last Sunday to finish tied 5th, brought a payback for a place at 50/1, he won the 'bad side' of the draw and would have surely pushed Rory all the way if he had played in the same favorable conditions.
Starting to play very well and some decent form here, without ever really challenging for the win. This could be his week.
Rafa Cabrera Bello - 33/1, I like to watch Rafa, but I dont like backing him as he has proved many times he is not a man too be trusted when the going gets tough.
That said, what doesnt kill you, makes you stronger and Rafa has shown signs this year that he is manning up a bit, but even after playing so well all year, he still hasn't been able to win.
This course will play to his strengths and he has proven he can shoot low around here, so one more last chacne for Rafa and I.
Thorbjorn Olesen - 55/1, current form and stats say he comes here ready to go close. Past course form says he has no chance, in 7 attempts he's only made the cut once and has never broken 70.
For sure Olesen went into the event out of sorts, for some of those missed cuts, but if he doesn't make the cut this week, he will go on the 'never back him at Wentworth' list.
Chris Wood - 66/1, the opposite profile to Olesen in that his course form is pretty good, but he arrived at the event saying he hadn't played well enough to compete last week and had plenty to work on.
Fine lines between A and B game for these golfers, if the homework on the range went well, he will look very good value.
Four players for me that I've backed recently and have the right credentials to win here:
Kevin Chappell - 28/1, knocking on the door most weeks, must go close.
Chris Kik - 33/1, defending champion and playing well again.
Colt Knost - 40/1, Texan who ist possibly playing the best golf of his life on tour, certainly looks to have found a high level of consistency and confidence.
Ryan Palmer - 45/1, another Texan who can be frustratingly hit and miss in these events, he's due a win in Texas, last chance this week.
Patton Kizzire - 80/1, having a very good rookie season on tour, plays well most weeks and has gone close to the win a couple of times, another good showing is expected.
Roberto Castro - 100/1, lost a play off earlier this month, playing well and profile should match this course.
Jonas Blixt - 100/1, shown some promising signs that his game is coming together, if he gets into contention he is strong enough to win.
Sean O'Hair - 125/1, four time winner on tour, last win was in 2011, lost his way for a couple of years, but is defintely back and close to getting into contention for that long awaited 5th win. He can handle the wind, this course and conditions will suit.
Steve Marino - 150/1, yet to win on tour,but the last 2-3 years he was either strugglig with injuries or out altogether.
Lost in a play off a couple of months ago and lost a playoff here back in 2009.
A solid wind player, who's chances this week are better than your average 150/1 shot.
We are at the Colonial Club where it is all about the fairways & greens. Seven of the last eight winners have finished in the Top Ten for Scrambling & GIR so these are the qualities that we are looking for rather than Driving Distance or Driving Accuracy.
Garcia in 2001 was the last player under 30 to win this title so looking at experienced players is certainly a good plan here.
Top of the market is Jordan Speith at 6/1 followed by Scott, Kuchar & Zach Johnson. There are question marks against all of these so we are looking for an experienced player at long odds.
Danny Lee 40/1
This is Lee's type of course where he can play fairway to green. Feel he is playing well but needs to convert good play into shots gained & it could be this week. 10th last year; I am expecting better this year.
Emiliano Grillo 100/1
Doesn't meet my age criteria but I see great things for Grillo. He is a bit hit & miss and I am hoping for a hit here.
Sean O'Hair 125/1
Looking back to his best and on a course that should suit, great odds for a reasonable contender.
Fabian Gomez 150/1
Two wins in his last 23 events makes these odds too attractive to ignore. This course should suit him down to the ground and was 9th at the Well Fargo this month.
Troy Merritt 300/1
Got his first tour win last season but has kept largely under the radar. Needs to be more consistent but a punt worth taking at the price.
Think backing Kuchar for a Top Ten finish should be profitable at 11/8 as he appears to be playing his best but I just don't have the confidence that he can win.
It's the Nordea Masters in Stockholm on a course which favours the big drivers. Lesser drivers cannot be ruled out but driving length followed by driving accuracy are top of my list this week.
Henrik Stenson is the favourite followed by Westwood & Noren. As regulars know, I never back Stenson so having him as the 6/1 favourite provides me with greater value for the players I fancy (unless he goes & wins it). Alex Noren is a player I like but I don't think he is quite a 16/1 shot. A would not be surprised to see him go very close here. Westwood is in good form & this is a course where he has done well before so shouldn't be ruled out.
Thomas Pieters 22/1
A big hitter and a favourite of mine. On a course with five par five holes, he could do a lot of damage. Hit an albatross today in practice.
Rikard Karlberg 28/1
Coming back to form with an impressive second at Wentworth last week. Loves this sort of course and was 4th here in 2013.
Peter Hanson 35/1
Getting back to his best and now playing a course that is ideal for him. Gave us a good run for three rounds last week & I expect him to go even closer this week.
Scott Hend 40/1
Won for us in Thailand in April and back on a course where he can open up his shoulders. Looked good for three rounds at Wentworth on a less suitable course but should give us a good run for our money here.
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