The Big Three of Day, Speith & McIlroy are all here and all coming off wins in their last event. Day is the favourite at 13/2 with Speith & McIlroy close behind on 7/1. There are plenty more big names as well with Matsuyama, Dustin, Kuchar, Fowler & Bubba all here.
My view is that driving accuracy and GIR are the two most important statistics to follow here. Former winners tend to do relatively well as do players who have gone close before.
I cannot see any value in the the big three here so am looking for players that can beat them. I see Fowler & Matsuyama as having decent chances at the prices but am prepared to look at longer priced options on players who I expect to be winning shortly.
Justin Thomas 50/1
Got his first tour win back in January but his form drifted for a while. Looks to be back on it again with an impressive third at the Players Championship behind Day. Should be well suited by the course.
Kevin Chappell 55/1
Three second places already this season (twice behind Day)suggest that a win could be just round the corner. He was also second here in 2013 so if he can match course form with current form.......
Jason Dufner 66/1
Dufner meets the criteria I have set but his hit or miss putting means that we need this sort of price to be with him. An impressive 6th last week suggests that he might be finding his putts.
A weak field for Austria's premier golf event with Weisberger, Luiten & Wood the three stand out players (all previous winners here), all at single figure prices to win here. We can pick our favourite of these three or look for longer priced players to take them on.
We have decent course form for the Diamond Country Club course and I think that GIR, Scrambling & Putting will be the key statistics to look for here.
I am going for one of the favourites then a few players who have the ability to leap out of the pack once or twice per season to pull off that big result.
Bernd Wiesberger 15/2
A shorter price than I would like for a player who can be inconsistent and out of things pretty quickly but I prefer his chances to Luiten (who has gone off the boil) and Wood who is defending & looking for back to back wins. It is his home tournament and hopefully he will hold it together better than last season when he was dead after the first round. He has three top five finishes (including a win) in the last five years here. Scrambling is important here & he topped the Scrambling stats at Wentworth - a continuation here will see him very close, if his putting is on song.
Lee Slaterry 40/1
In a field of this strength, 40/1 is more than fair. Slattery doesn't come to the party every week but if he comes this week then he could win it. He has two Top Ten finishes here so likes the course and is right up there in GIR stats, which should be vital here.
David Horsey 80/1
Horsey is one of those players that disappears for most of the season but once or twice jumps out there to grab a win or a place in a weaker field. He has been on my radar quite a bit recently but the either field has been too strong or the price too short. This week, the price is long enough & the field weak enough. He probably will miss the cut but his chances of a win are a fair bit better than 80/1.
Marc Warren 80/1
Another player that you wouldn't put your mortgage on but has hit some impressive rounds recently, sadly interspersed with some poor ones. Cut out the poor rounds & Warren could be close here.
There are a few other players that I will be watching - Dunne, Burmester, Broberg, Jensen, Lorenzo Vera & Van Der Walt.
An average standard field for this event at the tough Southwind course in Memphis. Not the easiest event to find the winner with quite a few long priced winners & quite a few first time winners.
Firstly, it is the week before a major so cannot be certain which of the bigger name players will be giving it 100%. Certainly some bigger names appear to prefer a weekend off. Secondly, this is course that gives the shorter hitters a greater chance. GIR, Scrambling & Putting are all worth more than Driving Distance here so it means that more players have a chance. Thirdly, it has bermuda grass and a different range of players do well on bermuda. Fourthly, a lot of players do well on their debut here. Fifthly, a lot of previous winners got there debut PGA win here.
I like matching up courses and Southwind matches with the OHL Classic, the Sony Open, the Puerto Rico Open & the RSM Classic. I have looked at players who have done well at these venues as well as they should also do well her.
Dustin, Koepka & Mickelson lead the market but I feel we need to be looking at bigger priced options for an event where a three figure priced winner is becoming normal.
Harris English 25/1
Winner here in 2013 and back to his best, only beaten by Speith last time out. Looks the most likely winner but likely winners have a habit of failing here.
Graeme McDowell 60/1
Won the OHL Classic this season and players that win there often perform well here. It is McDowell's sort of course but lack of course form gives us a good price here.
Matt Jones 80/1
Finished third here last year so clearly likes the course. Hitting form again with a very good eighth place last week. Could give us a good run at a good price.
Fabian Gomez 125/1
Only nine players have won tournaments more than once on bermuda grass since 2008 and Gomez is one of them. One of those was his shock win here a year ago. Another win wouldn't be such a shock.
Ben Crane 125/1
A winner here two years ago & another with two wins on bermuda grass. Seems to hit form out of the blue so why not on a course that he loves.
Rob Oppenheim 500/1
Seeing as this event specialises in winners at this price, I decided to include one. Oppenheim has right kind of game for this course with his strengths around the green. He is showing some consistency so why not?
This could be the trickiest tournament to predict the outcome of all season. The US Open is notoriously difficult to predict but at Oakmont, it is doubly difficult because there will be double, triple & quadruple bogeys that will end many a top player's tournament.
Jason Day is a pretty solid 13/2 favourite with McIlroy 15/2, Speith 10/1 & Dustin Johnson 16/1. Everyone is here and we need to whittle the field down to a few good value bets.
There is no one area to focus in on here because it will take a combination of driving accuracy, driving distanace, GIR, scrambling, putting & mental fortitude to get close here.
Oakmont has staged this event eight times with the winning score last time (2007) being five over par with ten over par giving a top six finish. Oakmont has brutal rough and fast greens, a combination to test the best and most will fail.
If we look at previous winners, we see quite a few top players & multiple major winners (Speith, Kaymer, Rose, McIlroy, McDowell, Woods, Cabrera) so it takes a quality player but quite often these players were on their way up whe they won this event. More specifically, we should look at US Opens at Oakmont. Every Oakmont US Open winner in the last hundred years has gone on to be a multiple major winner.
In 2007, Cabrera was the winner but behind him was a real mixture of other bombers (Woods, Bubba) mixed with canny short game players (Furyk, Toms) so while good distance gives an advantage, it appears to be a fairly even contest for all styles of golf.
I think GIR & Putting are the most important stats here and that it will take top putting to be in contention. Good driving will be an advantage but so will scrambling.
I really cannot bet at single figure price on an event like this. I accept that Jason Day is the most likely winner because he has the best all round figures and has the mental fortitude to hang in there when things are going badly. Likewise, I will be leaving Speith & McIlroy alone as well. Dustin Johnson has his merits but not at this price for me.
I am starting at around 33/1 and looking for players that have the ability but I am also looking for a streak of toughness to get there when all looks lost.
Danny Willett 45/1
Willett won the Masters and is still 45/1 for a repeat here which I consider to be more than fair. I don't think everyone has caught on to how good Willett really is yet and I think this course could be right up his street because Willett can keep churning out the pars whilst other blow their chances & who knows, this contest could well go to the one who keeps going the longest.
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Koepka fits the bill for me as another major winner in waiting. He has threatened a few times but I think he can step it up now. Second placed finishes at the Byron Nelson & St Jude Classic show that his form is right up there as well as top five finishes in this event in the last two years. If he has the belief then this could be his break through week.
Brandt Snedeker 70/1
Snedeker is another who shows his best in the trickiest of circumstances. His win at the Farmers Insurance a couple of months back was in the most testing of conditions where he kept dropped shots to a minimum and watched everyone fall away around him. It could be the same this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick 80/1
Not sure that he is quite ready to win a major yet but he is durable as he showed with a top ten finish at the Masters and is in form as he showed winning the Nordea Masters last time out. Another blunt Yorkshireman who could be there or thereabouts on Sunday.
Rafa Cabrera Bello 175/1
RCB has been our friend this season & owes us nothing but he is another who could step it up to the next level. He has been weak around the greens but improvements there have put him in contention several times this season and if he can hold it together mentally then he could be a big priced winner.
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1
A top ten finish at Augusta suggests that he can perform in majors & in tough conditions. Not consistent enough but he has odd weeks where he holds it all together & at 200/1, I am happy to punt this is one of those weeks.
Andrew Johnston 300/1
This would be a shock result but Johnston has put a few solid performances together recently and his recent win at Valderama is a good guide as the qualities to win there are similar to Oakmont. Decent value at 300/1.
Angel Cabrera 500/1
Call me a sentimental old fool but I have been on Cabrera for all his major wins so am going again here. Everyone says he is past it but the said that in 2007 and that was just the start of it for Cabrera. His general results are average to poor but in the biggest events & on the toughest courses, he sometimes pulls one out of the bag. At 500/1, Let me be sentimental.
A few others that I am looking for big performances include Leishman 90/1, Horschel 80/1, McDowell 150/1, Goosen 150/1, Lingmerth 175/1, Toms 400/1, Hoge 400/1, Ofilvy 500/1 & Oppenheim 1000/1.
Garcia, Willett & Stenson lead the market at 9/1 but I prefer to look for longer prices on the week after a major. A bit short on time this week but going each way for the following:
BMW International Open Garcia, Willett & Stenson lead the market at 9/1 but I prefer to look for longer prices on the week after a major. A bit short on time this week but going each way for the following: Scott Hend 50/1 Jeunghun Waing 66/1 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80/1 Matt Southgate 250/1 Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
80/1 place on Aphibarnrat keeps betting fund topped up.
French Open A decent field with McIlroy the 9/2 favourite with Kaymer, Willett, Westwood, McDowell & Fitzpatrick all 25/1 or less. My picks: Francesco Molinari 25/1 Bernd Wiesberger 30/1 Rafael Cabrera Bello 33/1 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 200/1 Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Molinari finished SECOND at 25/1 & Cabrera Bello finished FOURTH at 33/1 to give us two nice winning place bets.
WGC Bridgestone The market leaders here are Day, Speith, Dustin Johnson, Koepka, Watson, Rose, Scott & Grace. My picks: Jim Furyk 30/1 Bill Haas 66/1 Scott Piercy 90/1 Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Piercey finished SECOND by a shot at 90/1 to give us another winning place bet.
It's The Open. Can we find the 2016 winner? What does it take to win this year?
The Open is back at Troon for the first time in 12 years and history shows us that every winner here since 1950 has been American - Palmer, Weiskopf, Watson, Calcavecchia, Leonard & Hamilton. I think the rest of the world has caught up the Americans since then so I don't feel this is that relevant a statistic apart from showing that Americans can handle links courses.
The course is set out with nine holes going one way then the other nine returning us to the clubhouse so the wind can have a big effect particularly if it changes mid round. Traditionally the opening nine is the easier here with the prevailing wind with the toughest holes coming after the turn. The only clue from the weather forecasts is that it may be particularly tricky late on on Friday.
There have been claims that golf has become a young man's game in the last few years but the recent Open winners suggest otherwise. The last ten winners have been Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington (twice), Stewart Cink, Louis Oosthuizen, Darren Clarke, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy & Zach Johnson which actually suggests that older golfers do relatively well in this event.
A more interesting fact about the previous Troon Open winners is that they had all won a tournament that season before the Open, suggesting that form is important.
A high %ge of recent Open winners have gone close previously so experience of being in contention could be important.
Have not been following the golf for what seems like ages. So just picked 3 players for interest. Will probably add some in-play bets when my 3 are out of contention.
Have spent £29.22 over the 3 players and placed win only bets. I'll be in profit by £1000 if any of the 3 win....
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