We have four clear favourites ahead of the rest of the field - Day 9/1, D Johnson 9/1, McIlroy 10/1 & Speith 12/1. I have a long term bet on Day at 18/1 and prefer to have more shots at longer prices. For what it is worth, I think Dustin is the best bet of these four as he is very much in form whilst having all the attributes to master the course. Day hasn't found his usual consistency and McIlroy & Speith would need to be close to 20/1 to interest me here. Can go with one as a main bet with a few back up bets. If so, it has to be Dustin.
Here are my thoughts on the leading contenders in a few words:
Day - quality but not at best
Dustin - form horse, worthy favourite, has major in bag
McIlroy - inconsistent
Speith - lost his mojo
Scott 25/1 - possible but doesn't jump out at me
Garcia 28/1 - right profile but usually the bridesmaid
Stenson 33/1 - often thereabouts but rarely there
Grace 33/1 - meets the profile, possible winner
Fowler 33/1 - one day but probably not this year
Rose 35/1 - not in best form but meets the profile
Mickelson 45/1 - maybe one major left in him
Westwood 50/1 - meets the profile, could be his time
Here are my dozen to beat the other 140 and even then we might not even pick up a place on a course where one bad shot can cost you your chances.
Dustin Johnson 9/1
Dustin is the form player in the world right now & has got the monkey of not having won a major off his back. He has the power to blow everyone away and is looking better around the greens as well.
Brandon Grace 33/1
Grace meets the profile here. He is the right age, he is in form, he has a win this season & 20th last year. He has been in contention in several majors and this could be his week.
Justin Rose 40/1
Not in the best of form but is the right age. A tenth placed finish at the Masters shows that he can lift his game for the big event.
Lee Westwood 50/1
Meets all the criteria. The right age, in form, finished in top 15 in five of his last six events. Could just do a Darren Clarke.
Louis Oosthuizen 55/1
The right age, two top 25 finishes in this year's majors, an Open win plus a win this season. Could be close.
Graeme McDowell 100/1
18th at the US Open & on a course that should suit him. Tenth last week.
Brandt Snedeker 100/1
Tenth in the Masters, has a win this season (in windy conditions) & is the right age to claim a major.
Jim Furyk 100/1
This is the sort of course where Furyk can compete with the big hitters by staying clear of trouble. Second at the US Open.
Alex Noren 100/1
Been following him this season & he is in top form with two wins in the last month including the Scottish Open. Likes the conditions.
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1
Starting to mix it with the big guys. 17th at the Masters. Five top ten finishes this year. Value at the price.
Ernie Els 150/1
Past his best now but still can pull it out for a major. Loves the conditions. One last hurrah?
William McGirt 300/1
A long shot but has the ability to put four rounds together when he needs it. The next Todd Hamilton?
Despite this many selections, we might miss altogether as the following all have their chances: Scott, Kaymer, Willett, Kuchar, Schwartzel, Matsuyama, Leishman, Piercy, Harrington, Rahm, Olesen, Haas, Knost, Shinkwin and we still might have missed the winner.
After reading a few articles it seems long and accurate hitters will have the best chance therefore took 10/1 on DJ a couple of punts on Stenson 33/1 and Bubba 66/1 and then a big outsider of Finau at 400/1 all ew Posted by jordz16
GL tomorrow.
With you on Stenson and would like to see him win, if Mickelson wins though I will pick up a bit more profit.
Also rooting for Stricker and Reed to have a good final day and make top 7 for a little extra.
Could be a shock result here, wedged between two majors so while Snedeker & Furyk are the stand out candidates for me, I have gone for a few longer shots.
Canadian Open Could be a shock result here, wedged between two majors so while Snedeker & Furyk are the stand out candidates for me, I have gone for a few longer shots. Emiliano Grillo 33/1 Tony Finau 45/1 Jon Rahm 66/1 Bryce Molder 100/1 Rob Oppenheim 500/1 Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Nice 66/1 second place on Rahm although one shot less & it would have been a playoff for the title.
from what I can make out driving accuracy and recent form are very important so the 3 I have gone for are...
Garcia 33/1ew
Dufner 125/1ew
Johnston 250/1ew
also wanted to back JB Holmes when i saw him at 90/1 but when i got round to putting my bets on he was 70/1 so i gave it a miss which will no doubt means hes guaranteed to place now.
Gone for D Johnson @8/1 as the standout "big 4" player for this one
I haven't gone for Mickelson this time, hard to know how he will react though he clearly has great form and also course form.
I am determined to retain some profit from the Open but wanted to keep the interest going for the last major. Therefore I have made a withdrawal and with 7 places paid I have spread the bets around, 11 bets in total, quite small £31 cash and 2x £5 free bets used.
gone for garcia and dubussion wifes going for miccelson and speith i think the frenchman has a bit of game and he is 300 to 1 worth thirty bob each way
Tricky final major of the season so let's try & narrow it down a bit.
The favourites are D Johnson 10/1, McIlroy 10/1, Day 10/1, Stenson 16/1, Speith 16/1, Mickelson 25/1, Garcia 33/1, Scott 35/1, Rose 35/1, Fowler 40/1 & Watson 40/1.
All the above are possibles but I think we rule out McIlroy, Speith & Mickelson on price and Day, Scott, Rose & Fowler on form.
Previous winners of this event tend to have good previous form in this event with 7 of the last 10 winners having previously finished in the top ten. All of the last ten winners were aged between 23 & 37. Eight of the last ten winners were ranked in the top 25. Six of the last ten winners were ranked in the top five. Nine of the previous ten winners had already won on tour that season. Nine of the last ten winners had a top ten finish in one of their two last starts. Five of last ten winners had a win in one of their previos two starts. Seven of last ten winners had a top ten finish in a major already that season.
Here are my selections:
Dustin Johnson 10/1
Henrik Stenson 16/1
Sergio Garcia 33/1
Lee Westwood 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Gary Woodland 150/1
Keegan Bradley 160/1
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1
I think that gives us a good portfolio against the rest of the field. McIlroy could bust the field and Mickelson could have a final hoorah on a course he likes but Dustin holds more tour wins than any other players over the last five years with a winning score of less than -10 (which will most likely happen here), Stenson will win if he plays like he did at Troon, Garcia is the master of consistency & sure to be close. My other picks are good value for their chances.
There are others that could be picked for value: JB Hlomes 70/1, Danny Willett 90/1, Rafael Cabrera Bello 150/1 & Andrew Johnston 300/1.
This will be a tough course. Hitting the fairways is so important so while distance is important, accuracy is more important. Should be an enjoyable four days and hopefully with a winner or at least a couple of places.
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