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StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HAND 59: DEJA VU. DO YOU CALL AN ALL IN WITH POCKET JACKS HERE?

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  • CraigSG1CraigSG1 Member Posts: 1,832
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED : That's the beauty of poker-there is often no "right" way to play. I am not worried about a 4-bet bluff-I'm worried about any bet when I am likely to have a 2-outer out of position v a tight player whose range is probably better than 5 5 and someone as skilled as Mr Spittles. Looks spewy to me
    Posted by Essexphil
    I understand what you are saying, I'm just talking in general. i would probably just fold here v a tight player. 
  • Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited June 2016
    I think we can assume that while tight, there are still more 2 high card combos in the button opener's range than pairs?

    In which case we could well be ahead already, and if Graham "feels" he would fold to a c-bet, it sounds like they have appeared to be a fit/fold player on the flop. 

    Against a tight and perceived weaker player than me, I would be raising 55 here most of the time. 
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED : That's the beauty of poker-there is often no "right" way to play. I am not worried about a 4-bet bluff-I'm worried about any bet when I am likely to have a 2-outer out of position v a tight player whose range is probably better than 5 5 and someone as skilled as Mr Spittles. Looks spewy to me
    Posted by Essexphil


    Thanks for the feedback Phil.

    I think 90% of the time Ryan folds here, when faced with a raise and a re-raise. In fact I would expect them both to fold > 70% of the time.

    There is actually an argument to make this play with any two in this spot, however, of course if you do that all the time, then it would be noticed.

    However 55 is significantly ahead of the range of a button raise imo, even if the player is tight.

    Cheers,

    G


  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    I think we can assume that while tight, there are still more 2 high card combos in the button opener's range than pairs? In which case we could well be ahead already, and if Graham "feels" he would fold to a c-bet, it sounds like they have appeared to be a fit/fold player on the flop.  Against a tight and perceived weaker player than me, I would be raising 55 here most of the time. 
    Posted by Phantom66


    Cheers for this Phantom.

    I think there is a report to get this information in HM2, but I can't find it atm.

    ie, how many times when I open raise on the button is it a pocket pair.

    However, regarding our opponent, I would say he has a pocket pair 20% of the time and if he is raising with all pockets, that would mean 14% of the time he has an over-pair. So I'd say we are ahead of the button 86% of the time.

    However, the really important stat is how often does he fold to a 3bet when he raises from the button/cutoff. Clearly when you play live, or on Sky, there is no software for this (fortunately), but these are the things one should be paying attention to.

    I can't remember now what his "fold to 3bet" stats were, but I was probably quite confident that he would fold.

    I have just found a horrifying stat on HM2 for my Stars account. That stat is that I lose more chips when on the button, than any other table position. This is horrendous, as it should always be the BB then the SB that are the biggest "natural losses".

    I think my stats for this are so poor, as one of the blinds often 3bets and I fold. Note to self, "TIGHTEN UP MY BUTTON RAISES" (at least on Stars anyway)

    I suspect I am not the only one guilty of this, but the extent is staggering. Glad I have spotted that leak, so thanks for bringing this up Phantom.

    FYI. My button raises get 3bet much more on Stars than  Sky, this is for two reasons:

    1: it's 9 max
    2: The standard Stars player is more aggressive in the blinds, than his Sky counterpart.

    Cheers,

    G


  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED : I understand what you are saying, I'm just talking in general. i would probably just fold here v a tight player. 
    Posted by CraigSG1


    Thanks for the feedback Craig.

    I would agree with you if it was an early table position raise, where it is probably a fold or call depending on stack sizes, however against a button raise 55 is so often ahead of even a tight player, that a fold would be too passive imo.

    Cheers,

    G
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,879
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED : My button raises get 3bet much more on Stars than  Sky, this is for two reasons: 1: it's 9 max 2: The standard Stars player is more aggressive in the blinds, than his Sky counterpart. Cheers, G
    Posted by StayOrGo
    and 3. There are antes on Stars, so more in the pot
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    UKPC2016 THIRTIETH TO THIRTY_FIFTH  HANDS:
    =================================

    Blinds 1000/2000 Antie 300

    Chip Count: 140K

    Once again detail on these hands is sadly lacking, however I increased my chip stack to 195k by 3betting pre in a couple of spots and open raises that got through. Four of these hands never got as far as the flop and two went to the flop, where I successfully C-bet.

    Anyhow my chip stack is now 195K

    Cheers,

    G
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED : and 3. There are antes on Stars, so more in the pot
    Posted by Essexphil


    Very True and probably the most significant point.

    Cheers Phil.
  • stokefcstokefc Member Posts: 7,878
    edited June 2016
    the 55 hand. is calling a leak and should 3-betting be the norm if you want to better yourself at the game,curious
    agression is key i suppose
  • markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited June 2016
    I agree that the 55 hand is down to styles and there is more than one way to play it. In this exact situation I would never be folding to the initial BTN open. I would mostly be calling and hoping/expecting the BB to come along too due to the pot odds they are getting which enhances the implied odds. Obviously there is an added benefit that if there is a 3bet from the BB (depending on the sizing) there may also be decent implied odds to set mine. I would also be treating this as more than a set mining exercise versus a 'tight button' and looking to get tricky post flop if possible.

    Fully appreciate that with your style you personally prefer to 3bet here, personally I would flat though with these stack sizes. If BTN opener was short then it is a different proposition.
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    the 55 hand. is calling a leak and should 3-betting be the norm if you want to better yourself at the game,curious agression is key i suppose
    Posted by stokefc


    Hi Stoke.

    I feel this to be true, as I said before, I would nearly always 3bet here.

    However there are several good players that advocate calling, but for me it is a 3bet 90% of the time.

    It is style dependant to a degree, however, personally I would strongly advise 3betting here, most of the time.

    I think you take it down there and then 70% of the time (provided your 3bet is big enough), which is almost enough reason in itself. In my opinion of course.

    Cheers,

    G
  • stokefcstokefc Member Posts: 7,878
    edited June 2016
    thank you Graham i appreciate your thoughts throughout your thread its fantastic for people like me
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,720
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED : Cheers for this Phantom. I think there is a report to get this information in HM2, but I can't find it atm. ie, how many times when I open raise on the button is it a pocket pair. However, regarding our opponent, I would say he has a pocket pair 20% of the time and if he is raising with all pockets, that would mean 14% of the time he has an over-pair. So I'd say we are ahead of the button 86% of the time. However, the really important stat is how often does he fold to a 3bet when he raises from the button/cutoff. Clearly when you play live, or on Sky, there is no software for this (fortunately), but these are the things one should be paying attention to. I can't remember now what his "fold to 3bet" stats were, but I was probably quite confident that he would fold. I have just found a horrifying stat on HM2 for my Stars account. That stat is that I lose more chips when on the button, than any other table position. This is horrendous, as it should always be the BB then the SB that are the biggest "natural losses". I think my stats for this are so poor, as one of the blinds often 3bets and I fold. Note to self, "TIGHTEN UP MY BUTTON RAISES" (at least on Stars anyway) I suspect I am not the only one guilty of this, but the extent is staggering. Glad I have spotted that leak, so thanks for bringing this up Phantom. FYI. My button raises get 3bet much more on Stars than  Sky, this is for two reasons: 1: it's 9 max 2: The standard Stars player is more aggressive in the blinds, than his Sky counterpart. Cheers, G
    Posted by StayOrGo
    Tighten button raises, or open your 4-bet bluff or calling range vs 3-bet jams ;)

    Guess you'd need to find out if there's a difference in how deep you are to work out what to adjust.

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED : Tighten button raises, or open your 4-bet bluff or calling range vs 3-bet jams ;) Guess you'd need to find out if there's a difference in how deep you are to work out what to adjust.
    Posted by bbMike


    Good point Mike, probably both tbh.

    Open raise less and 4bet/call more.

    I probably also need to 3bet less on the button v earlier opens. 

    Might be worth experimenting :=)

    Cheers,

    G
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    thank you Graham i appreciate your thoughts throughout your thread its fantastic for people like me
    Posted by stokefc


    You are welcome Stoke. Glad you are finding it useful :=)
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    Following on from these discussions.

    I did conduct some of my own research a few years back (On Stars) which may be useful along the theme of the discussions we've been having.

    I manually recorded what happened when someone raised from the various positions. (ie. did they get 3bet, called or did everyone fold)

    I only did this when it was fairly deep into an MTT but not close to the bubble. (So I got a balanced results unaffected too much by ICM or stack sizes).

    There is a total sample size of just over 500 hands, so not enough to be accurate, but a reasonable guide.

    My results are as follows:      (Cut and Paste from a word doc I created)

    THE CHART BELOW STATES THE LARGEST ACTION THAT TAKES PLACE: FOR EXAMPLE IF AN UNDER THE GUN RAISE IS MADE AND THIS IS CALLED BY SAY THE BUTTON AND RE-RAISED BY ONE OF THE BLINDS, ONLY THE RE-RAISE ACTION IS RECORDED. ALL HANDS ARE FROM NINE PLAYER TABLES FOR MTT'S BETWEEN a $55 BUY IN and a $215 BUY IN.

    INITIAL RAISE POSITION (NUM OF SAMPLE HANDS) TIMES 3BET TIMES CALLED TIMES ALL FOLDED UNDER THE GUN (100) 40% 32% 28% UTG+1 (73) 38% 33% 29% UTG+2 (85) 35% 38% 27% UTG+3 (71) 27% 30% 43% HI-JACK (67) 42%* 36% 22%* CUTOFF (59) 39%* 39% 22%* BUTTON (58) 43%* 35% 22%* SMALL BLIND (26) 42%* 23%  35%*
    To assist with understanding the above if we take the UTG+1 position.

    The chart above shows that of 73 occurrences when someone raised from UTG+1, they were 3bet 38% percent of the time, called 33% of the time and it folded round 29% of the time.

    The most poignant information provided by this imo is:

    1) UTG+3 seems by far the best "steal" position.
    2) Button raises got 3bet 43% of the time from 58 occurrences.
    3) The Hi-Jack, Cutoff and Small Blind were also 3bet VERY often, which shows you just how LITTLE respect LATE table position raises get on STARS, and how they are 3bet by a very wide range.
    4) They are very aggressive on Stars

    Admittedly, this is not enough of a sample size (particularly for the Small Blind, as it rarely folds round to the SB), but I somehow get a feeling these guys might be 3betting with 55 (and a lot worse), in the blinds against a button raise.

    What we have to remember is that the UKPC was nine handed, with anties, and perhaps more aggressive players in general than we are used to on Sky.

    Hope this is of use. Might prompt some interesting discussions anyway. :=)

    Cheers,

    G



     
     
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    UKPC2016 THIRTY_SIXTH  HAND:
    ======================

    Blinds 1,500/3,000 Antie 500 (Last level of the day)

    Chip Count: 192K

    They broke our table a few minutes earlier, so most of the players were new to me, however Neil Channing got moved to the same table. He now sits 3 to my left, so he has position on me this time.

    Starting Hand: 9d5s

    PRE-FLOP

    It folds to the SB who limps, and I raise to 10K on the BB, SB calls.

    FLOP

    Kc,4c,2c

    SB checks, I bet 12k (into a pot of 24k), SB folds.
    My Thoughts:
    PRE_FLOP
    It looked to me that the SB just wanted to see a cheap flop, so I raised to 10K despite only have 95o, as I was quite confident that he would fold. However, he didn't, he called. Opps.
    FLOP
    The SB checked and I felt duty bound to C-bet. I figured if he didn't have either a King, or a medium/high club, it would be hard for him to call.
    He tanked for a while then folded. Perhaps he had a passively played hand like 55 or 66 or a medium club. I was quite relieved when he folded as I would have given up on the turn.
    It could have gone horribly wrong, but I got away with one here. On the whole I still think the play is OK, but definately risky as I didn't know my opponent at all, having just moved to the table.
    On the other hand, it did send out a message that I would defend/raise on my BB, which wouldn't do my image any harm.
    CHIP COUNT: 206K (AVERAGE 120K)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Feel free to post thoughts/questions.
    Cheers,
    G

  • weecheez1weecheez1 Member Posts: 1,686
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HANDS 24 TO 28 NOT REVEALED. 29TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    UKPC2016 THIRTY_SIXTH  HAND: ====================== Blinds 1,500/3,000 Antie 500 (Last level of the day) Chip Count: 192K They broke our table a few minutes earlier, so most of the players were new to me, however Neil Channing got moved to the same table. He now sits 3 to my left, so he has position on me this time. Starting Hand: 9d5s PRE-FLOP It folds to the SB who limps, and I raise to 10K on the BB, SB calls. FLOP Kc,4c,2c SB checks, I bet 12k (into a pot of 24k), SB folds. My Thoughts: PRE_FLOP It looked to me that the SB just wanted to see a cheap flop, so I raised to 10K despite only have 95o, as I was quite confident that he would fold. However, he didn't, he called. Opps. FLOP The SB checked and I felt duty bound to C-bet. I figured if he didn't have either a King, or a medium/high club, it would be hard for him to call. He tanked for a while then folded. Perhaps he had a passively played hand like 55 or 66 or a medium club. I was quite relieved when he folded as I would have given up on the turn. It could have gone horribly wrong, but I got away with one here. On the whole I still think the play is OK, but definately risky as I didn't know my opponent at all, having just moved to the table. On the other hand, it did send out a message that I would defend/raise on my BB, which wouldn't do my image any harm. CHIP COUNT: 206K (AVERAGE 120K) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to post thoughts/questions. Cheers, G
    Posted by StayOrGo
    Liking the thinking sometimes I think image is just as important as good cards keep up the good work
  • The_eggsThe_eggs Member Posts: 57
    edited June 2016
    Thank you very much for this contribution to the forum, it's been very informative and has helped my thought process in hands no end. Also to everyone else who has commented particularly F_ivanovic who's understanding runs deep and is someone I tend to follow on 2+2 as his responses are usually superb. I first played poker in OCT last year and have become more than obsessed. I have won a few tournaments on Sky and a few live and feel I have come along way in a short amount of time, but it is all because of people being generous with there knowledge of the game. Thanks again. The_eggs
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,187
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: 36TH HAND IS REVEALED:
    Thank you very much for this contribution to the forum, it's been very informative and has helped my thought process in hands no end. Also to everyone else who has commented particularly F_ivanovic who's understanding runs deep and is someone I tend to follow on 2+2 as his responses are usually superb. I first played poker in OCT last year and have become more than obsessed. I have won a few tournaments on Sky and a few live and feel I have come along way in a short amount of time, but it is all because of people being generous with there knowledge of the game. Thanks again. The_eggs
    Posted by The_eggs


    Thanks for this Eggs. Much appreciated.

    I agree with you regarding F_ivanovic and many of the others contributions. They have really helped to provide a detailed multi-perspective view.

    Cheers,

    G

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