Been away for a few days so not had a chance to comment on any recent hands. Interesting chart regarding 3b/call/fold % vs various positions at the table. Obviously the more players left to act, the higher chance someone has a hand which is why it starts off as a high 3b of 40% but then decreases down till 27% in UTG+3 before increasing again in the HJ where typically people start stealing wider.
However, 40% still seems high even despite the increased probability of a good hand waking up behind you because an UTG range should be very strong IMO. I play 9 handed very rarely but I imagine my opening range from UTG would be around 9% of hands. (66+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs+, 87s+) However, I think many people (and you yourself said you admitted to opening quite wide even UTG) open too wide from these positions and as a result people using a HUD will pick up on this and will 3b you wider for value. (eg. As an example - AK or even a hand like AJs or AQs probably shouldn't be a 3b against someone opening 9% but is going to be a 3b against someone opening as wide as 20%) - and because there is a pretty high chance of someone having these hands, this is why UTG ends up being 3b so wide.
Going back briefly to the 55 hand: With a weaker player in the blinds then calling would be the best play IMO (especially with BTN being tight) but with Ryan being in the blinds I agree that calling isn't a great option and I think 3b is OK although I would rather maybe a suited connector that plays better post-flop. I think 3b all our small pairs is going to be too much but maybe just 3b 66-44 is OK.
Onto the most recent hand: do you always iso this large in the BB and would you do so with KK? We have position on the SB and we never raise the BTN to 3.3x - and we still have to get through 2 players there. Personally, I think it's OK (as I said before) to occasionally mix it up with a different raise size and make it a big raise with any pure bluffs like this hand as well as some value hands but if it's your stile to keep the same sizing then I would just make it 2.2-2.5x with my entire range.
I like the hand you chose for this play too. Suited stuff has plenty of value IP and HU when you keep the SPR high so I wouldn't raise with 95s but our hand is also not quite complete garbage and has some playability being able to flop gutshots/hit straights. I wouldn't iso raise with 93o for instance.
Of course if you know for certain he's limping wide and will fold to a raise then we can exploitatively raise complete garbage like 93o but generally most people's SB limping range isn't too wide these days.
Been away for a few days so not had a chance to comment on any recent hands. Interesting chart regarding 3b/call/fold % vs various positions at the table. Obviously the more players left to act, the higher chance someone has a hand which is why it starts off as a high 3b of 40% but then decreases down till 27% in UTG+3 before increasing again in the HJ where typically people start stealing wider. However, 40% still seems high even despite the increased probability of a good hand waking up behind you because an UTG range should be very strong IMO. I play 9 handed very rarely but I imagine my opening range from UTG would be around 9% of hands. (66+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs+, 87s+) However, I think many people (and you yourself said you admitted to opening quite wide even UTG) open too wide from these positions and as a result people using a HUD will pick up on this and will 3b you wider for value. (eg. As an example - AK or even a hand like AJs or AQs probably shouldn't be a 3b against someone opening 9% but is going to be a 3b against someone opening as wide as 20%) - and because there is a pretty high chance of someone having these hands, this is why UTG ends up being 3b so wide. Going back briefly to the 55 hand: With a weaker player in the blinds then calling would be the best play IMO (especially with BTN being tight) but with Ryan being in the blinds I agree that calling isn't a great option and I think 3b is OK although I would rather maybe a suited connector that plays better post-flop. I think 3b all our small pairs is going to be too much but maybe just 3b 66-44 is OK. Onto the most recent hand: do you always iso this large in the BB and would you do so with KK? We have position on the SB and we never raise the BTN to 3.3x - and we still have to get through 2 players there. Personally, I think it's OK (as I said before) to occasionally mix it up with a different raise size and make it a big raise with any pure bluffs like this hand as well as some value hands but if it's your stile to keep the same sizing then I would just make it 2.2-2.5x with my entire range. I like the hand you chose for this play too. Suited stuff has plenty of value IP and HU when you keep the SPR high so I wouldn't raise with 95s but our hand is also not quite complete garbage and has some playability being able to flop gutshots/hit straights. I wouldn't iso raise with 93o for instance. Of course if you know for certain he's limping wide and will fold to a raise then we can exploitatively raise complete garbage like 93o but generally most people's SB limping range isn't too wide these days. Posted by F_Ivanovic
Thanks again for this Ivan.
Generally when anyone limps it affects the standard raise size (or should imo). My thoughts were, that he wanted to see a cheap flop, and that if I made it 10K, then he would likely fold. (I probably just make it 8K with KK)
I do take your point about people not limping too wide on the SB these days, although I do feel that this play gets folds pre flop often enough to justify it.
If you then add to that the number of times you are called and take it down with a C-bet, I think it is a viable play.
Of course a good player (that limps in the SB), will balance his range with limp-folds, limp-calls and limp-raises. So one does need to be cautious.
Being a new table, it would also give me some info on him and (provided I won the hand), it would show the table that I am not a soft BB.
Blinds 1,500/3,000 Antie 500 (Last level of the day)
Chip Count: 210K
Starting Hand: AdKh
PRE-FLOP
I raise to 7K, UTG+1, and get called by the CUTOFF, BUTTON and BB.
FLOP
2c,4h,6c
BB checks, I check, Cutoff checks, Button checks TURN 2s BB checks, I bet 14K (into a pot of 33K), everyone folds. My Thoughts: PRE_FLOP Standard. FLOP AND TURN The details on the recording were quite good for this hand, so I will transcribe word for word from my recording below: "It comes a deuce,6,4 flop, two clubs and I don't really like it, as someone has to have a pocket pair or flush draw or a hand that's connected with the board. So I just check, and it checks all around and then there's another deuce. Still not keen, but I feel obliged to lead out here, so I bet 14k, and fortunately they all folded. Tricky spot, definitely think the check on the flop was right, but the lead out, paid off this time, but not sure over-all whether it was a +ev move. It checked around so quick, and it was that, that probably gave me the sense that I could get them all to fold. And obviously the deuce is a good turn card as it's not likely to have improved anybody's hand." CHIP COUNT: 235K (AVERAGE 160K) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next hand tomorrow, which is the very last hand of DAY1A, and once again involves Neil Channing. As always, feel free to post thoughts/questions. Cheers, G
We're you not tempted to make a small c bet on the flop to see if anyone played back rather than let everyone have e free card Posted by weecheez1
Hi weecheez
No not tempted to C-bet the flop at all.
My stats on HM2 show that a C-bet got through on a low two tone flop against 3 opponents 25.9% of the time, which is actually higher than I would expect.
But even 25.9% isn't high enough imo, toC-bet the flop.
What one has to realise is the fact that there are three other opponents.
This makes a massive difference to the likelihood of a C-bet being "successful"
Also, some players will stubbornly call a small bet with weak draws and overcards.
In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: 36TH HAND IS REVEALED : Thanks again for this Ivan. Generally when anyone limps it affects the standard raise size (or should imo). My thoughts were, that he wanted to see a cheap flop, and that if I made it 10K, then he would likely fold. (I probably just make it 8K with KK) I Posted by StayOrGo
This isn't a criticizm but I find it curious that you are making it smaller with KK. You said in an earlier post that you make the same raise size pre regardless of your hand so as to not give anything away and I argued the case that it's possible to mix in different sizings as an exploitative adjustment against unknown opponents. Yet here you are doing as I suggested and are using a different sizing hoping to extract a fold?
Overall with our range in this spot we are fairly happy if villain calls a raise pre. We have a stronger raise IP and we're going to take down the pot quite often with a c-bet. So whilst a limp does affect the standard size slightly, it shouldn't affect it that much here - I just think it's almost always better as a default to make it around 2.5x more. Again, not to say I disagree with your raise size - it can be fine to do in this instance IMO but it wouldn't be my standard.
@weecheez1: On top of what StayOrGo has said, we have to always think about why we are c-betting and how often. Sure, there is some protection value in getting potentially up to 6 random over-cards to fold. However, if we are c-betting here then we are c-betting with every hand in our range which generally isn't a good thing to be doing. It can be fine in a vacuum and given the board texture it probably gets through enough of the time to be +ev if we make a small(ish) bet - eg. a bet of around 35% pot has to work 26% of the time - and based on StayOrGo's statistics I think given board texture they will be higher than that on this board.
That said, it can't hurt to see a free card either. We can sometimes win with a delayed c-bet and other times spike an A or K - and occasionally we will get to see a river w/o putting in any extra money and might win there.
If we had AK with a back door flush draw here I think I would be c-betting 100%. The ability to turn a flush draw and barrel as a bluff makes it a much more worthwhile flop c-bet.
I raise to 8K, in the CUTOFF, BUTTON CALLS, SB folds, BB (Neil Channing) re-raises to 18K, I fold, BUTTON shoves, Neil calls.
Showdown
Neil has: KK
Button has: AQ
The river is an Ace and Neil is unfortunately eliminated from Day1A. My Thoughts: PRE_FLOP Neil deliberated for some time and then re-raised to 18K. This looked super strong to me as it was the very last hand of the day, and he certainly wasn't going to be folding his remaining 32K. So my thinking was, why just a small re-raise and not an all in? If he had of shoved I would have shoved too ,as he could do that with way worse than AQ to try and double up or bust on the last hand, so he could re-enter the following day. But as it stood this re-raise to 18k looked suspicious to me, so I folded. The button did decide to go all in, and Neil called. The button had the same hand as me, AQ, however he rivered one of the remaining two Aces, to knock Neil out. Neil, as you would expect, took it like the gentleman that he is, and he later qualified for day2 on day1c I believe. END OF DAY1A: CHIP COUNT: 227K (AVERAGE 180K) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm going to give myself a week off. It may also allow some people time to catch up, as I know a lot of people have got part way through it. I hope you have found this useful and feel free to keep the posts coming during the coming week. On day two, I get into a lot of tricky spots and marginal situations, so it will be interesting to see everyone's thoughts. I will carry on with Day2 in the beginning of July. Thanks to all those who have contributed to this thread so far. Cheers, Graham.
In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: 36TH HAND IS REVEALED : This isn't a criticizm but I find it curious that you are making it smaller with KK. You said in an earlier post that you make the same raise size pre regardless of your hand so as to not give anything away and I argued the case that it's possible to mix in different sizings as an exploitative adjustment against unknown opponents. Yet here you are doing as I suggested and are using a different sizing hoping to extract a fold? Overall with our range in this spot we are fairly happy if villain calls a raise pre. We have a stronger raise IP and we're going to take down the pot quite often with a c-bet. So whilst a limp does affect the standard size slightly, it shouldn't affect it that much here - I just think it's almost always better as a default to make it around 2.5x more. Again, not to say I disagree with your raise size - it can be fine to do in this instance IMO but it wouldn't be my standard. @weecheez1: On top of what StayOrGo has said, we have to always think about why we are c-betting and how often. Sure, there is some protection value in getting potentially up to 6 random over-cards to fold. However, if we are c-betting here then we are c-betting with every hand in our range which generally isn't a good thing to be doing. It can be fine in a vacuum and given the board texture it probably gets through enough of the time to be +ev if we make a small(ish) bet - eg. a bet of around 35% pot has to work 26% of the time - and based on StayOrGo's statistics I think given board texture they will be higher than that on this board. That said, it can't hurt to see a free card either. We can sometimes win with a delayed c-bet and other times spike an A or K - and occasionally we will get to see a river w/o putting in any extra money and might win there. If we had AK with a back door flush draw here I think I would be c-betting 100%. The ability to turn a flush draw and barrel as a bluff makes it a much more worthwhile flop c-bet. Posted by F_Ivanovic
Hi Ivan, thx for this, regarding your above point highlighted in blue. I think there is always an exception to any rule, and whilst in general I don't vary my open raise sizes, based on my hand strength (particularly for early table position opens)
However, blind on blind is slightly different imo. Here I am thinking more about what HE HAS and NOT WHATI HAVE, and I simply believe a bigger bet gets more folds. It may sound overly simplistic, however my experience in these spots has shown that, in general, a bigger bet gets more folds, in these blind on blind spots.
As I said before, if I've got KK or AA, I don't want him to fold, so I make it slightly less (8k ish). I also believe that these spots don't come up often enough or get to showdown enough, for even the most discerning of opponent to be able to gauge a pattern. (unless you are a well known pro, or write a thread about it lol)
However often pro's use other people's knowledge of them, to their advantage, and mix up the play. (The old, he thinks, I think he thinks I'll do this meta game stuff)
Not that it's the purpose of this thread, but suppose it was you who limped in the SB Ivan. I would clearly know that (because of this thread) you'd think a raise to 10k was weaker than a raise to 8k, so I may do the opposite. Just a thought to consider, and if you think I'll do the opposite, I may not, and it goes on. The wonders of Meta game poker:=)
As I said previously, I was expecting him to fold pre flop, so it didn't really go to plan, however I was fortunate enough to get a flop that was conducive to facilitating a successful C-bet.
Maybe I should have just checked the option, however having made the decision to raise, I am happy with the sizing.
no thank you for posting its one of the best threads i,ve ever read,its gold i repeat gold thanks to Wes too for a young lad his analysis is exceptional well done Posted by stokefc
Cheers for this Stoke, and I concur with your comments regarding Wes's input.
It is always useful to have one's opinions challenged in a constructive way.
The ensuing discussions are not only useful to me, but also to other people that have taken the time to read this thread.
The feedback and respectful/constructive challenging of views has been great, making it far better, and more useful, than a monologue would have been.
Also people like yourself Stoke, that have supported the thread with kind comments, provide us with the motivation to continue with the project.
As with anything like this, there is quite a lot of effort involved, and the information provided is only useful, if there is a receptive, open-minded audience to receive it.
So thanks to everyone for contributing in your unique way.
Shortly after Day1A ended, I bumped into Neil at the DTD foyer. One could easily excuse him if he was somewhat down cast due to his abrupt exit on the final card of the final hand. However he was still his normal jolly self. I offered him a lift back to his hotel in Nottingham City Centre and after about 8 laps of the various one way systems we eventually found the place. Had a nice chat during the various circuits and fortunately for him, his poker is a lot better than his navigational skills. We eventually stopped somewhere "random" feeling totally lost, and I hear Neil say, "Oh, there it is!" As far as getting completely lost goes, this one was quite fun. Are we ready to start day2 or do people need catch up time? Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
I'm sure I'm not alone in waiting with baited breath for the next hand to be revealed. I know it is a lot of work for you to put them up but I have both been enjoying your journey and learning a lot from your and other posters comments on them.
Your last hand is a classic example of my biggest leak. My gut would tell me that I'm behind but I would probably call it off anyway. I really need to learn that discipline and seeing your hands really helps.
Hi Graham, I'm sure I'm not alone in waiting with baited breath for the next hand to be revealed. I know it is a lot of work for you to put them up but I have both been enjoying your journey and learning a lot from your and other posters comments on them. Your last hand is a classic example of my biggest leak. My gut would tell me that I'm behind but I would probably call it off anyway. I really need to learn that discipline and seeing your hands really helps. I hope you can continue the thread. All the very best, Donald Posted by thisltedu
Hi Donald, thanks for this.
Yes I was giving myself a break for a bit, as there were lots of other things going on. WSOP coverage etc.
I thought that people may not have time to read too much of this thread. Or indeed, may be getting a bit bored with it by now.
So it is nice to here that it is still of interest to some, and. as such, I will continue on to day2.
Cheers for the feedback. I will post the first hand of Day2 later today.
OK, WE ARE UP AND AWAY. HERE WE GO FOR DAY2. Fairly standard hand to start us off.
UKPC2016 THIRTY_NINTH HAND: (FIRST HAND PLAYED ON DAY2)
============================================
Blinds 2,000/4,000 Antie 500
MY CHIP COUNT: 227K
Starting Hand: 5c5s
PRE-FLOP
I raise to 9.5K, in the CUTOFF, and get called by the BB.
FLOP: 4s,6h,Qs
BB checks, I bet 12k (into a pot of 25k), BB calls.
TURN: Tc
BB checks, I check RIVER: Qc BB checks, I check
Showdown
BB shows: Q9 and wins with trip Queens.
My Thoughts: PRE_FLOP This is a fairly standard open for me with pocket 5's in the Cutoff. FLOP: 4s,6h,Qs Not the worst flop for pocket 5's, although clearly the big blind can have Qx hands in his range. So I lead out to protect my hand if I'm good and take it down ideally. I think my opponent folds at least 50% of the time here, making it the correct play imo, however in this case he calls. TURN: Tc My opponent checks again and I check behind. I can't see a benefit in betting here. My hand has showdown value if against a flush draw and it is also pretty likely that I am behind. If he does have a queen, I can't see him folding. RIVER: Qc My opponent again checks (presumably to induce a bluff.) I decide to check behind, as I would expect most hands that beat me to call, and I could still be good against a missed flush draw. CHIP COUNT AFTR HAND: 205K -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to add comments. Cheers, Graham.
Many thanks for starting this up again. I agree with your play but what would you have done if he had bet the river? He could have been floating the flop or have a missed flush and he may have sensed your weakness and gone for a bluff. What would lead you to calling or folding?
Hi Graham, Many thanks for starting this up again. I agree with your play but what would you have done if he had bet the river? He could have been floating the flop or have a missed flush and he may have sensed your weakness and gone for a bluff. What would lead you to calling or folding? Posted by thisltedu
It's difficult to say for sure Donald, but with there being two Queen's and also now a Ten on the board, I think, if he were to bet the river, his range is weighted more towards value bets than bluffs, so I am fairly sure that I would have folded to a river bet.
The boards smacks his range for a defend of the BB and having already shown resistance on the flop, it is literally only a missed flush draw that I am beating, and even some of those flush draws would be Tx hands or 6x hands that beat me.
I can't recall the actual hand, I only have the information on my voice recording, but there is nothing on there to suggest that I would have called a river bet. It is possible that he could float the flop with air, although, from my experience this tends to happen more when they are an aggressive player and are in position.
Comments
However, 40% still seems high even despite the increased probability of a good hand waking up behind you because an UTG range should be very strong IMO. I play 9 handed very rarely but I imagine my opening range from UTG would be around 9% of hands. (66+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs+, 87s+) However, I think many people (and you yourself said you admitted to opening quite wide even UTG) open too wide from these positions and as a result people using a HUD will pick up on this and will 3b you wider for value. (eg. As an example - AK or even a hand like AJs or AQs probably shouldn't be a 3b against someone opening 9% but is going to be a 3b against someone opening as wide as 20%) - and because there is a pretty high chance of someone having these hands, this is why UTG ends up being 3b so wide.
Onto the most recent hand: do you always iso this large in the BB and would you do so with KK? We have position on the SB and we never raise the BTN to 3.3x - and we still have to get through 2 players there. Personally, I think it's OK (as I said before) to occasionally mix it up with a different raise size and make it a big raise with any pure bluffs like this hand as well as some value hands but if it's your stile to keep the same sizing then I would just make it 2.2-2.5x with my entire range.
I like the hand you chose for this play too. Suited stuff has plenty of value IP and HU when you keep the SPR high so I wouldn't raise with 95s but our hand is also not quite complete garbage and has some playability being able to flop gutshots/hit straights. I wouldn't iso raise with 93o for instance.
Of course if you know for certain he's limping wide and will fold to a raise then we can exploitatively raise complete garbage like 93o but generally most people's SB limping range isn't too wide these days.
Blinds 1,500/3,000 Antie 500 (Last level of the day)
BB checks, I check, Cutoff checks, Button checks
TURN
2s
BB checks, I bet 14K (into a pot of 33K), everyone folds.
My Thoughts:
PRE_FLOP
Standard.
FLOP AND TURN
The details on the recording were quite good for this hand, so I will transcribe word for word from my recording below:
"It comes a deuce,6,4 flop, two clubs and I don't really like it, as someone has to have a pocket pair or flush draw or a hand that's connected with the board. So I just check, and it checks all around and then there's another deuce. Still not keen, but I feel obliged to lead out here, so I bet 14k, and fortunately they all folded. Tricky spot, definitely think the check on the flop was right, but the lead out, paid off this time, but not sure over-all whether it was a +ev move. It checked around so quick, and it was that, that probably gave me the sense that I could get them all to fold. And obviously the deuce is a good turn card as it's not likely to have improved anybody's hand."
CHIP COUNT: 235K (AVERAGE 160K)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Next hand tomorrow, which is the very last hand of DAY1A, and once again involves Neil Channing.
As always, feel free to post thoughts/questions.
Cheers,
G
If we had AK with a back door flush draw here I think I would be c-betting 100%. The ability to turn a flush draw and barrel as a bluff makes it a much more worthwhile flop c-bet.
Blinds 1,500/3,000 Antie 500
The river is an Ace and Neil is unfortunately eliminated from Day1A.
My Thoughts:
PRE_FLOP
Neil deliberated for some time and then re-raised to 18K. This looked super strong to me as it was the very last hand of the day, and he certainly wasn't going to be folding his remaining 32K. So my thinking was, why just a small re-raise and not an all in?
If he had of shoved I would have shoved too ,as he could do that with way worse than AQ to try and double up or bust on the last hand, so he could re-enter the following day. But as it stood this re-raise to 18k looked suspicious to me, so I folded.
The button did decide to go all in, and Neil called. The button had the same hand as me, AQ, however he rivered one of the remaining two Aces, to knock Neil out.
Neil, as you would expect, took it like the gentleman that he is, and he later qualified for day2 on day1c I believe.
END OF DAY1A: CHIP COUNT: 227K (AVERAGE 180K)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm going to give myself a week off. It may also allow some people time to catch up, as I know a lot of people have got part way through it.
I hope you have found this useful and feel free to keep the posts coming during the coming week.
On day two, I get into a lot of tricky spots and marginal situations, so it will be interesting to see everyone's thoughts.
I will carry on with Day2 in the beginning of July.
Thanks to all those who have contributed to this thread so far.
Cheers,
Graham.
Blinds 2,000/4,000 Antie 500
BB checks, I check
RIVER: Qc
BB checks, I check
My Thoughts:
PRE_FLOP
This is a fairly standard open for me with pocket 5's in the Cutoff.
FLOP: 4s,6h,Qs
Not the worst flop for pocket 5's, although clearly the big blind can have Qx hands in his range. So I lead out to protect my hand if I'm good and take it down ideally. I think my opponent folds at least 50% of the time here, making it the correct play imo, however in this case he calls.
TURN: Tc
My opponent checks again and I check behind.
I can't see a benefit in betting here. My hand has showdown value if against a flush draw and it is also pretty likely that I am behind. If he does have a queen, I can't see him folding.
RIVER: Qc
My opponent again checks (presumably to induce a bluff.)
I decide to check behind, as I would expect most hands that beat me to call, and I could still be good against a missed flush draw.
CHIP COUNT AFTR HAND: 205K
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feel free to add comments.
Cheers,
Graham.