You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
Next Conservative leader
There are currently 11 candidates who bookies see as genuine possibles-all at odds of 20/1 or less (oddschecker).
They are (in rough betting order):-
Sunak, Mordaunt, Wallace, Javid, Truss, Hunt, Raab, Zahawi, Tugendhat, Baker & Gove. Also cannot discount a total outsider confounding the odds-like Major, or Corbyn, did. So-Braverman, Priti, Badenoch, etc.
We all know that those 11's odds will fluctuate wildly.
How many of those 11 are likely?
For me (and I may well be wrong), Hunt is not far enough to the Right, Gove would be too divisive, and Tugendhat/Baker make more sense as the next-but-one than right now.
Still leaves 7. All of which have things against them. From plotting to oust Boris (Sunak/Javid), to being so bland I struggle to remember who they are (Mordaunt, Wallace). Then there is the thorny question of, if Tory Members (as opposed to MPs) get to choose between 2, my money is on the, er, person more in accord with the Membership of the Tory Party (overwhelmingly White Pensioners).
I'm not saying he will make the final 2. Far from it. But-if he does-my money is on Raab.
They are (in rough betting order):-
Sunak, Mordaunt, Wallace, Javid, Truss, Hunt, Raab, Zahawi, Tugendhat, Baker & Gove. Also cannot discount a total outsider confounding the odds-like Major, or Corbyn, did. So-Braverman, Priti, Badenoch, etc.
We all know that those 11's odds will fluctuate wildly.
How many of those 11 are likely?
For me (and I may well be wrong), Hunt is not far enough to the Right, Gove would be too divisive, and Tugendhat/Baker make more sense as the next-but-one than right now.
Still leaves 7. All of which have things against them. From plotting to oust Boris (Sunak/Javid), to being so bland I struggle to remember who they are (Mordaunt, Wallace). Then there is the thorny question of, if Tory Members (as opposed to MPs) get to choose between 2, my money is on the, er, person more in accord with the Membership of the Tory Party (overwhelmingly White Pensioners).
I'm not saying he will make the final 2. Far from it. But-if he does-my money is on Raab.
Comments
I just wrote on another thread that in a YouGov poll this morning Ben Wallace got 48%, and Liz Truss got 29% of Tory members.
Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak, and Jeremy Hunt were well behind.
What he does not have is any Ministerial experience whatsoever. Which is why he is far more likely to be promoted to a Senior position, but not PM
I cant stand Liz Truss.
Although she has been in the first two in the betting for ages.
As far as I can see Ben Wallaces popularity is based on him talking tough about the Russians fairly recently.
I dont really have a clue about who is popular amongst the MPs.
It would be nice to think that most of the Cabinet have no credibility left, as a result of their lying to prop Boris up.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
In my opinion, which might not be up to much, whoever takes over has an uphill battle.
Your own party has appears to have so many factions, from stuffy old men, who undoubtedly are in power and don’t want to give that up. Bought and paid for by certain figures, businesses and groups. A large group of MP’s who were voted in last time , on a promise of “ levelling up” on wafer thin majorities, who will be selling themselves to anyone who can get them a second term. A few big names who have served as front bench ministers, many of whom have scored fantastic own goals during that time, do these people seriously not have public relations advisors?
I think the country needs leadership, change, not just for change sake, but honest , straight talking , forward thinking all inclusive leadership.
If the country has to take some medicine, tell us, explain why, don’t dither, put the plans in place and get on with it. Not sure if the “big recognisable “ names are capable of that type of leadership, maybe one of the names not known, steps forward and does what this country desperately needs...... Leads.
Politics needs to change, proportional representation? Turkeys voting for Christmas there I’m afraid, but , when the alternative is what’s sat across the aisle, I wince. The hung parliament, when the conservatives had to listen to the Lib Dem’s, had to compromise, seemed to have possibilities, but no.
So many things need to be done, for the good of all not just the few, how this can be achieved needs brains bigger and better than mine.
Vacancy
RIGHT (wing) (dis) HONOURABLE (no) GENTLEMAN
Applications with CV by tomorrow.
It is far from clear that Boris will be allowed to continue as temporary PM. Raab must, therefore, be both willing and able to step into the breach.
I sincerely hope he gets a Senior Position in due course. More honest than many in that Party.
Please, priti please, don't let it be Braverman or Truss.
What type of "emergency" would be needed (created) to have a situation where it would be unwise to change the PM?
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/replace-boris-johnson-runners-riders-120321392.html
Calling for BJ to go now and that the 1922 rules are changed to omit rank & file members from the voting process.
How very democratic.
Will someone do a seance to see what Maggie thinks.
That article says 11, but discounts 6 of them (at least at this stage. Says:-
1. Wallace/Sunak/Nordaunt
4. Javid/Truss.
Rest miles back. We shall see.
Want to ensure Boris is speedily removed. Can see the advantages for the Party. Just not the Country. That said, do we want the future of the Country, and the next PM, decided by the Conservative Party Membership?
71% Male. Overwhelmingly White. Average age 72.
79 years old
White
Pronoun unknown