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Next Conservative leader

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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.

    Disagree with this.

    Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
    The polling was,
    Mordaunt 27%
    Badenoch 15%
    Truss and Sunak 13%
    Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.

    Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.

    That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
    Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.

    2 points come to mind in relation to this:-

    1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?

    2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM

    PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?

    So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
    I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members.
    Although the bookies are rarely wrong.

    I cant really see how this plays out.

    It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two.
    He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.

    It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.

    Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?

    Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today.
    This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt.
    The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.

    Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.

    Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.

    Where does that leave Mordaunt?
    Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes.
    No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
    I agree with all of that.

    But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.

    So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.

    Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.

    Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.

    Interesting times.
    I dont think they do either.
    Boris made a comment in PMQs which inferred it could be decided by next Monday, and this was his last PMQs.
    They are interesting times.
    Although this is a very long winded process.
    What would be wrong with all the candidates standing for one vote, and the top two being referred to the members?
    And if they really want to prevent the members from playing a part, why not be above board and change the rules.
    It will be interesting to see where we are after todays vote.
    Because then all the MPs would not be able to secure places in the Cabinet in return for votes ;)

    Also, you would be more likely to be left with 2 more extreme Candidates that way.

    The Tories have a pathetically low membership as it is. I recall that, at 1 point recently, Membership was less than not only Labour, but the SNP. Can't be seen to be taking away their power. While denying them it by the back door, naturally
    What do you think now then?
    Next vote will be very important.

    Not because of who will finish last-in all probability, that will be Tugendhat.

    The most important factor will be where Braverman's votes end up. Politically, she is closer to Badenoch, and then Truss. Will votes start to swing Badenoch's way? If not, then her campaign will be over.

    I believe Truss is incompetent. But better her than the rather hateful creature that is Badenoch. That said, think it more likely that a higher percentage of votes would go Badenoch-Truss, than the other way round.

    The other interesting thing will be whether the gap at the top narrows. Because the next vote may well start to show how tactical voting may play out.
    One thing you can guarantee is there will be plenty of plotting, scheming, arm twisting, and probably a bit of skulduggery going on over the weekend.
    Tugendhat will be next out.
    It will be interesting on Monday, if he pulls out before the vote.
    He lost supporters between the first two votes, and may now be at his peak value to another team.
    His votes would take Sunak over the line to reach the final two, or take Mordaunt to within a whisker.
    I am certain that both of them will be prepared to offer him a big job in return for his support.
    Doing this could also lead to the elimination of Truss.
    This could occur if Badenoch could inherit all the Braverman votes, or if the top two lent some votes to Badenoch, or a bit of both.
    There is no doubt that the top two would rather see Badenoch than Truss in the final three.
    If Truss gets the Braverman votes, I am certain that her team will be putting Badenoch under pressure to pull out before Mondays vote, in return for a big job.
    If she did, this would change everything.
    So its all still up for grabs, and Monday will be interesting, as the Tories are very slippery.
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    Bean81Bean81 Member Posts: 525
    I know a handful of people that have first-hand experience in working with Penny Mordaunt. Idiot and arrogant are the words that are consistently used.
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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    edited July 2022
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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    Bean81 said:

    I know a handful of people that have first-hand experience in working with Penny Mordaunt. Idiot and arrogant are the words that are consistently used.

    Bean81 said:

    I know a handful of people that have first-hand experience in working with Penny Mordaunt. Idiot and arrogant are the words that are consistently used.

    Just a normal Tory then.
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    EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,078
    edited July 2022
    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.
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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    Essexphil said:

    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.

    Short of some sort of miraculous performance in the TV debates, Tugendhat gets eliminated, followed by Badenoch.
    The real chance to sabotage Truss will be before Badenoch gets knocked out.

    If the last 3 are Mordaunt, Sunak, and Truss, it looks like it will be extremely close.

    The only saving grace if Truss won, is that this would probably represent Labours best chance of beating them at the next general election.
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    EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,078
    edited July 2022
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.

    Short of some sort of miraculous performance in the TV debates, Tugendhat gets eliminated, followed by Badenoch.
    The real chance to sabotage Truss will be before Badenoch gets knocked out.

    If the last 3 are Mordaunt, Sunak, and Truss, it looks like it will be extremely close.

    The only saving grace if Truss won, is that this would probably represent Labours best chance of beating them at the next general election.
    True.

    Although part of me thinks the next election might be a good one to lose. There are massive problems around the corner.

    We have record debt. Record NHS waiting lists. Highest inflation for nearly 40 years. Biggest industrial unrest for nearly 40 years. And, worse, the sort of inflation that hurts the poor the most-like food and utilities.

    Some of that is the Tories fault. And some is not. But politicians find it much easier to blame the Opposition, or an Individual within their own Party, than the truth.
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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    Essexphil said:

    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.

    Truss now second favourite, Sunak drifting.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
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    EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,078
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.

    Truss now second favourite, Sunak drifting.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
    If it ends up being Sunak v Truss, it will be interesting to see what the Tory Faithful will do.

    It would then be abundantly clear that MPs had manipulated things to deny the Members being given their preferred choice.

    I'm not saying Sunak would win. I am saying his odds of winning would be considerably better than his current odds.
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    tomgooduntomgoodun Member Posts: 3,727
    I wish the ordinary bloke/woman voters could see this thread and realise what absolute shysters the Tory party are.
    When it comes to the election it seems the majority of the electorate suffer from a form of amnesia.
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    rabdenirorabdeniro Member Posts: 4,229
    They're all bunch of back stabbing besterds, ye wouldnae trust any of them wae a shillin.
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    EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,078
    tomgoodun said:

    I wish the ordinary bloke/woman voters could see this thread and realise what absolute shysters the Tory party are.
    When it comes to the election it seems the majority of the electorate suffer from a form of amnesia.

    Completely.

    Examples:-

    1. Suella Braverman. Pretends to be loyal to Boris. When sees an opening, not content to backstab like others. Front stabber-stays in the Cabinet while attacking him. When fails, does she recommend supporting Badenoch, who has very similar policies? Of course not-she is a likely future rival, so what is best for Braverman are not Braverman policies.

    2. Lord Frost. Feels perfectly able to pitch in-although I am enthralled at the thought that anyone could possibly have achieved less in relation to Brexit than that idle waster. Is he an MP? No. Has he ever been an MP? No. Does he have a vote? No. John Major interfering is bad enough, without this idiot.

    3. A Party wishes to "rebuild Trust" in the electorate. That would be the Party that asked the electorate to vote for Johnson in 2019, only to foist someone else on us without a General Election. That in 2017, asked us to vote for May. And then, without a General Election, gave us Johnson. That in 2015, asked us to vote for Cameron. And then, without a General Election, (or even a Party election) gave us May. Not exactly inspiring Trust, is it?
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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    Essexphil said:

    tomgoodun said:

    I wish the ordinary bloke/woman voters could see this thread and realise what absolute shysters the Tory party are.
    When it comes to the election it seems the majority of the electorate suffer from a form of amnesia.

    Completely.

    Examples:-

    1. Suella Braverman. Pretends to be loyal to Boris. When sees an opening, not content to backstab like others. Front stabber-stays in the Cabinet while attacking him. When fails, does she recommend supporting Badenoch, who has very similar policies? Of course not-she is a likely future rival, so what is best for Braverman are not Braverman policies.

    2. Lord Frost. Feels perfectly able to pitch in-although I am enthralled at the thought that anyone could possibly have achieved less in relation to Brexit than that idle waster. Is he an MP? No. Has he ever been an MP? No. Does he have a vote? No. John Major interfering is bad enough, without this idiot.

    3. A Party wishes to "rebuild Trust" in the electorate. That would be the Party that asked the electorate to vote for Johnson in 2019, only to foist someone else on us without a General Election. That in 2017, asked us to vote for May. And then, without a General Election, gave us Johnson. That in 2015, asked us to vote for Cameron. And then, without a General Election, (or even a Party election) gave us May. Not exactly inspiring Trust, is it?
    I have just been watching a bit of the leadership debate on Sky.
    Completely uninspiring.
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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    Essexphil said:

    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.

    Revealed: The WhatsApp messages that show Tory Brexiteers at war over call to back Liz Truss


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/revealed-the-whatsapp-messages-that-show-tory-brexiteers-at-war-over-call-to-back-liz-truss/ar-AAZCpSX?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=07e397eda73542ec82f5e474632c4d8b
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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    Tom Tugendhat clear winner of first Tory leadership debate, snap poll finds


    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/tom-tugendhat-clear-winner-first-203059814.html
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    misterpjmisterpj Member Posts: 3,204
    aware its Mrs Elizabeth Truss!

    thought the headline Wooden Truss was referring to, well you know

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    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,423
    Essexphil said:

    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.

    How can a candidate that wont admit that Boris was a liar, get elected to be our next PM?

    Tory MPs squirm as they are asked whether Boris Johnson is 'an honest man' in first TV debate



    But the debate's opening questions were dominated by the shadow of Mr Johnson's time in office, with Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Rishi Sunak and Mr Tugendhat asked if he is an honest man.

    Mr Tugendhat, a long-term critic of the PM, then received a round of applause from the studio audience when he was the only candidate to simply reply 'no'.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tory-mps-squirm-as-they-are-asked-whether-boris-johnson-is-an-honest-man-in-first-tv-debate/ar-AAZCIMG?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=07732313e874440fb0ce87e001704679
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    EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,078
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.

    How can a candidate that wont admit that Boris was a liar, get elected to be our next PM?

    Tory MPs squirm as they are asked whether Boris Johnson is 'an honest man' in first TV debate



    But the debate's opening questions were dominated by the shadow of Mr Johnson's time in office, with Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Rishi Sunak and Mr Tugendhat asked if he is an honest man.

    Mr Tugendhat, a long-term critic of the PM, then received a round of applause from the studio audience when he was the only candidate to simply reply 'no'.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tory-mps-squirm-as-they-are-asked-whether-boris-johnson-is-an-honest-man-in-first-tv-debate/ar-AAZCIMG?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=07732313e874440fb0ce87e001704679
    To be fair, this was a far easier question for Mr Tugendhat to answer.

    If any of the other Candidates had never been a Minister under Boris, they would have found the question easy, too.

    It is the follow-up questions that cause the others problems, namely "when did you realise this" and "why did you continue in his Government afterwards"

    It's not a bad thing being disliked by Boris. But it has left him short of hands-on experience.
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 161,076
    edited July 2022
    Current odds to be next Conservative Leader.

    Prices vary, but I've used Betfair Exchange as these best represent the true odds.


    Mordaunt Evens

    Sunak 21/10

    Truss 26/5

    Badenoch 28/1

    Tugendhat 44/1

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