Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Penny Mordaunt is a shoe in for the job. I feel for those people on Universal Credit if she gets the job, same old Tory sh.. the rich get richer the poor get poorer.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Steve Baker is a kn0b. Although Penny Mordaunt is now odds on. Sunak and Truss are drifting. The other 3 havent a chance if the odds are anything to go by.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
Nice to see democracy in action 🙄
Maybe Mordaunt and Truss could ‘join forces’ , campaign as Females in Fighting Action , the acronym is quite apt.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
I dont think they do either. Boris made a comment in PMQs which inferred it could be decided by next Monday, and this was his last PMQs. They are interesting times. Although this is a very long winded process. What would be wrong with all the candidates standing for one vote, and the top two being referred to the members? And if they really want to prevent the members from playing a part, why not be above board and change the rules. It will be interesting to see where we are after todays vote.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
Lord Frost has ‘grave reservations’ about Penny Mordaunt as PM and says she was moved off Brexit talks
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
I dont think they do either. Boris made a comment in PMQs which inferred it could be decided by next Monday, and this was his last PMQs. They are interesting times. Although this is a very long winded process. What would be wrong with all the candidates standing for one vote, and the top two being referred to the members? And if they really want to prevent the members from playing a part, why not be above board and change the rules. It will be interesting to see where we are after todays vote.
Because then all the MPs would not be able to secure places in the Cabinet in return for votes
Also, you would be more likely to be left with 2 more extreme Candidates that way.
The Tories have a pathetically low membership as it is. I recall that, at 1 point recently, Membership was less than not only Labour, but the SNP. Can't be seen to be taking away their power. While denying them it by the back door, naturally
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
Lord Frost has ‘grave reservations’ about Penny Mordaunt as PM and says she was moved off Brexit talks
And, unsurprisingly, the Right begin briefing against Mordaunt, as well as Sunak.
The hapless waste of flesh that is Lord Frost? Please.
And dressing up Truss as a former "Reluctant Remainer"? Pah. It's like being a little bit Pregnant. You either are, or are not. Switch sides by all means. Just don't lie about it.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
Lord Frost has ‘grave reservations’ about Penny Mordaunt as PM and says she was moved off Brexit talks
And, unsurprisingly, the Right begin briefing against Mordaunt, as well as Sunak.
The hapless waste of flesh that is Lord Frost? Please.
And dressing up Truss as a former "Reluctant Remainer"? Pah. It's like being a little bit Pregnant. You either are, or are not. Switch sides by all means. Just don't lie about it.
He is streets ahead of Steve Baker in the being a kn0b stakes.
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
I dont think they do either. Boris made a comment in PMQs which inferred it could be decided by next Monday, and this was his last PMQs. They are interesting times. Although this is a very long winded process. What would be wrong with all the candidates standing for one vote, and the top two being referred to the members? And if they really want to prevent the members from playing a part, why not be above board and change the rules. It will be interesting to see where we are after todays vote.
Because then all the MPs would not be able to secure places in the Cabinet in return for votes
Also, you would be more likely to be left with 2 more extreme Candidates that way.
The Tories have a pathetically low membership as it is. I recall that, at 1 point recently, Membership was less than not only Labour, but the SNP. Can't be seen to be taking away their power. While denying them it by the back door, naturally
Steve Baker has been predicting that Rishi Sunak loses to every other candidate, as far as Tory members are concerned, and will definitely not be our next PM.
Disagree with this.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
The polling was, Mordaunt 27% Badenoch 15% Truss and Sunak 13%
Polling as to who is most liked out of 6/8 is not the same as most liked out of 2.
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Polls pretend to be a science. Whereas they are merely a snapshot. And an inaccurate one, at that. Because the poll size is tiny-less than 900 out of between 100,000 and 200,000 voters. And contain what people want to tell you they are voting for. As opposed to their actual vote.
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
I would agree that the poll included a very small number of Tory members. Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two. He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today. This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt. The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt? Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes. No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
I agree with all of that.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
I dont think they do either. Boris made a comment in PMQs which inferred it could be decided by next Monday, and this was his last PMQs. They are interesting times. Although this is a very long winded process. What would be wrong with all the candidates standing for one vote, and the top two being referred to the members? And if they really want to prevent the members from playing a part, why not be above board and change the rules. It will be interesting to see where we are after todays vote.
Because then all the MPs would not be able to secure places in the Cabinet in return for votes
Also, you would be more likely to be left with 2 more extreme Candidates that way.
The Tories have a pathetically low membership as it is. I recall that, at 1 point recently, Membership was less than not only Labour, but the SNP. Can't be seen to be taking away their power. While denying them it by the back door, naturally
What do you think now then?
Next vote will be very important.
Not because of who will finish last-in all probability, that will be Tugendhat.
The most important factor will be where Braverman's votes end up. Politically, she is closer to Badenoch, and then Truss. Will votes start to swing Badenoch's way? If not, then her campaign will be over.
I believe Truss is incompetent. But better her than the rather hateful creature that is Badenoch. That said, think it more likely that a higher percentage of votes would go Badenoch-Truss, than the other way round.
The other interesting thing will be whether the gap at the top narrows. Because the next vote may well start to show how tactical voting may play out.
Comments
I feel for those people on Universal Credit if she gets the job, same old Tory sh.. the rich get richer the poor get poorer.
Think he loses to Mordaunt, close between him and Truss, and he beats the other 3.
Mordaunt 27%
Badenoch 15%
Truss and Sunak 13%
Badenoch and Braverman are Marmite characters. They would score far higher as favourite of 8 than favourite of 2.
That and Steve Baker is the man who put "genital" in "congenital idiot"
Although Penny Mordaunt is now odds on.
Sunak and Truss are drifting.
The other 3 havent a chance if the odds are anything to go by.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-07-13/penny-mordaunt-will-succeed-boris-johnson-exclusive-leadership-poll-suggests
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
2 points come to mind in relation to this:-
1. How can the people entitled to vote be variously stated as somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 voters? Are the Tories seriously claiming they don't know how many people pay to belong? Heard anything about exactly when must be a Member to be able to vote?
2. The path for the Right of the Party is clear. 2 of Truss/Badenoch/Braverman need to unite behind the other 1, and hope their supporters provide a united front. Because then, it is entirely possible that Mordaunt does not make the Final 2. Because that is currently the likeliest way she does not become PM
PS-45-42 is an effective tie? Really?
So "effective tie" is the same as "within margin of error". Nonsense.
Although the bookies are rarely wrong.
I cant really see how this plays out.
It is quite easy to see where Sunaks additional votes would come from, in order for him to hit the required number to make the last two.
He will surely pick up some of the Hunt, Zahawi, and Tugendhat supporters.
It is also clear where the votes would come from to allow Truss/Badenoch to reach the final two.
Where do Penny Mordaunts votes come from?
Braverman, and Tugendhat may well bite the dust today.
This will be a pity as Tugendhat appears to be everything that Boris isnt.
The Braverman votes will go to Truss and or Badenoch.
Wouldnt the elimination of Badenoch in the next round make Truss nailed on for the final two.
Sunak could get enough votes today to make the final two, if not, surely by the next round.
Where does that leave Mordaunt?
Can she get more than fifty out of the 80 Hunt, Tugendhat, and Zahawi votes.
No point being the darling of the members if you dont make the last two.
But it is important to remember that these are politicians. You know, people who can crawl under a sleeping snake without waking it.
So-for example-suppose Rishi's supporters accept they will lose any run-off. Their natural ally would be Mordaunt, rather than Truss. Tactical voting may well mean that Sunak's fans transfer to Mordaunt.
Then there is the possibility of a deal at the last 3. Say Mordaunt as PM, Sunak and Truss to have their pick of the other jobs, Mordaunt portrayed as the unity candidate, blah, blah.
Because I don't think the Tories want their Members deciding.
Interesting times.
Maybe Mordaunt and Truss could ‘join forces’ , campaign as Females in Fighting Action , the acronym is quite apt.
Boris made a comment in PMQs which inferred it could be decided by next Monday, and this was his last PMQs.
They are interesting times.
Although this is a very long winded process.
What would be wrong with all the candidates standing for one vote, and the top two being referred to the members?
And if they really want to prevent the members from playing a part, why not be above board and change the rules.
It will be interesting to see where we are after todays vote.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/lord-frost-has-grave-reservations-about-penny-mordaunt-as-pm-and-says-she-was-moved-off-brexit-talks/ar-AAZy5hz?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e87dd555c802466fbed9782349da7966
Also, you would be more likely to be left with 2 more extreme Candidates that way.
The Tories have a pathetically low membership as it is. I recall that, at 1 point recently, Membership was less than not only Labour, but the SNP. Can't be seen to be taking away their power. While denying them it by the back door, naturally
The hapless waste of flesh that is Lord Frost? Please.
And dressing up Truss as a former "Reluctant Remainer"? Pah. It's like being a little bit Pregnant. You either are, or are not. Switch sides by all means. Just don't lie about it.
Not because of who will finish last-in all probability, that will be Tugendhat.
The most important factor will be where Braverman's votes end up. Politically, she is closer to Badenoch, and then Truss. Will votes start to swing Badenoch's way? If not, then her campaign will be over.
I believe Truss is incompetent. But better her than the rather hateful creature that is Badenoch. That said, think it more likely that a higher percentage of votes would go Badenoch-Truss, than the other way round.
The other interesting thing will be whether the gap at the top narrows. Because the next vote may well start to show how tactical voting may play out.