Because I have to play more satellites to try to get in to Bigger Tourneys, I think I have quite a good record, and understand some, but defo not all of what I should do.
Any advice is really helpful ......and hopefully other low stakes players appreciate it too.
Keep advice coming please
..... I'm sure I'll be posting more hands on here
Sorry I just seen the post, god advice from Graham, and I fold both times in this situation . Have you read any of Dara's books ? All worth getting , GL.
Cheers George.
I haven't read any of Dara's books ..... but hoping Father Xmas might be bringing one
Because I enjoy taking on things that are outside my comfort zone.
I love it where it's not safe, where it's edgey and a little bit scary. That's why in the past I liked to hang off mountains, race motorbikes, work doors, compete in martial arts and have a what don't kill me makes me stronger outlook.
The broken bones, battered body, bruised limbs and constant adrenalin surges. The frequent "Wow that was close" moments and the realisation that you only really live when you put it all on the line is what motivated me, and to some extent still does
I can't help it, that's how I'm wired.
I had no idea a £1 HU sng held such dangers... i didnt realise what a bad **** mo f***** i was!
Calm down big lad, I was simply analogising how I enjoy being outside my own comfort zone.
Certainly playing against a PLO8 specialist does that. although my 0 - 7 current scoreline would seem to suggest that trying to play optimally is indeed a bad idea.
So in the next stanza I am just going to blast with any pretty hands and see if I can't set you off on a rant.
Or alternatively, you can suggest a 1.30pm time for the Monday and simply not turn up.... or on the Tuesday either......
Had my new skull motif headband on and everything....
Because I enjoy taking on things that are outside my comfort zone.
I love it where it's not safe, where it's edgey and a little bit scary. That's why in the past I liked to hang off mountains, race motorbikes, work doors, compete in martial arts and have a what don't kill me makes me stronger outlook.
The broken bones, battered body, bruised limbs and constant adrenalin surges. The frequent "Wow that was close" moments and the realisation that you only really live when you put it all on the line is what motivated me, and to some extent still does
I can't help it, that's how I'm wired.
I had no idea a £1 HU sng held such dangers... i didnt realise what a bad **** mo f***** i was!
Calm down big lad, I was simply analogising how I enjoy being outside my own comfort zone.
Certainly playing against a PLO8 specialist does that. although my 0 - 7 current scoreline would seem to suggest that trying to play optimally is indeed a bad idea.
So in the next stanza I am just going to blast with any pretty hands and see if I can't set you off on a rant.
Or alternatively, you can suggest a 1.30pm time for the Monday and simply not turn up.... or on the Tuesday either......
Had my new skull motif headband on and everything....
Sorry, yesterday the wife had a hospital appointment and today I couldn't be bothered tbh. Tomorrow I'm having a Doplar scan 13.00 until 15.30 so maybe Thursday.
I'm enjoying your Forum contributions, keep it up, & if you think I may be able to assist with anything, don't be afraid to drop me a PM.
With sample sizes like that (11, 22 & 27), you will get wild swings in the outcomes & the results are meaningless. Personally speaking, I think 10,000 hands should be the very minimum criteria. Anything less & we won't get accurate results.
Here's an example of how expected standard deviations become more accurate with bigger sample sizes. In the case below it's "win rate" but exactly the same logic applies to variance in all it's weird & wonderful forms, including card distribution &, to take a perfect example, coin tosses. Even with only two outcomes, you'd be surprised at the variance in coin tosses with small sample sizes.
The bigger the sample, the smaller the deviation. I suspect that applies to all statistics.
Here's another example of the extraordinary fickleness of variance.
The Sky Poker Final Table Jackpot takes quite a bit of winning.
Broadly speaking, the Main get ~180 entries, the Mini ~270, & to win a share of the Jackpot a player has to finish in the top six of both, on the same night.
The FTJ "runs" 365 nights per year. Pure guess on my part, but a FTJ payout probably takes place 12 to 15 times per year. (May be slightly more, but I don't keep records).
@TheWaddy ive had 22 all ins tonight with a higher ace than my opponent only won 8/22
other day it was 11/27
i am a 65%+ favourite why is it doing this to me lol, i still believe its not rigged but wtf is going on this week...
oh and for contrast i have only won 2/11 when im not favourite.
This is exactly what my experience has been over the 12 or so years since black friday. The moderator suggests it will even out over time, as odds dictate. Mine hasnt, hope yours does.
@TheWaddy ive had 22 all ins tonight with a higher ace than my opponent only won 8/22
other day it was 11/27
i am a 65%+ favourite why is it doing this to me lol, i still believe its not rigged but wtf is going on this week...
oh and for contrast i have only won 2/11 when im not favourite.
This is exactly what my experience has been over the 12 or so years since black friday. The moderator suggests it will even out over time, as odds dictate. Mine hasnt, hope yours does.
Sorry i have no pictures to put up of blokes wearing shorts to play golf..... You may find the poker talk dull but your on the wrong site... try gimpgolfshortsfetish.com.......
Yup, it's brutal when it happens, but you could just as easily be A-Q man.
When our Aces get bust, telling our mates & others is a sort of psychological comfort blanket & we all want to do it. But when we are the A-Q, our mind forgets how lucky we got.
The ways our minds work with these things is utterly fascinating & very complex.
Long losing runs in these situations where your a big fave, but no long winning runs.... winning runs will be just as good as odds dictate and nothing more....
This is the problem... odds say that if there are going to be long runs, then there should be a lot more long winning runs than losing ones, but it never works out that way!
Personally i was able to tell my opponents during a break in a tourney tonight, of what would happen shortly after the break... that an opponent 'booker' would go all in preflop with rags and scoop the whole pot at hi lo and knock me out....
As he had been all in several times with poor holdings and it just wasnt allowing him to giveaway... the odds were just not possible for him to be surviving.
So we know in these circumstances that being a low stack, i would be facing that very hand against him soon and what the outcome was going to be.
Which was precisely what happened first hand after the break, a non hi lo holding that flopped the nuts and even improved further..... i even typed 'may as well get the outdraw over with' before putting my chips in. Booker had already agreed in the break that this would happen as he felt he knew the score too.
Its disappointing players know in advance whats going to happen.
Comments
I haven't read any of Dara's books ..... but hoping Father Xmas might be bringing one
Had my new skull motif headband on and everything....
other day it was 11/27
i am a 65%+ favourite why is it doing this to me lol, i still believe its not rigged but wtf is going on this week...
oh and for contrast i have only won 2/11 when im not favourite.
Hi Spikey
I'm enjoying your Forum contributions, keep it up, & if you think I may be able to assist with anything, don't be afraid to drop me a PM.
With sample sizes like that (11, 22 & 27), you will get wild swings in the outcomes & the results are meaningless. Personally speaking, I think 10,000 hands should be the very minimum criteria. Anything less & we won't get accurate results.
Here's an example of how expected standard deviations become more accurate with bigger sample sizes. In the case below it's "win rate" but exactly the same logic applies to variance in all it's weird & wonderful forms, including card distribution &, to take a perfect example, coin tosses. Even with only two outcomes, you'd be surprised at the variance in coin tosses with small sample sizes.
The bigger the sample, the smaller the deviation. I suspect that applies to all statistics.
10,000 hands: +/- 10 BB/100
50,000 hands: +/- 4.47 BB/100
100,000 hands: +/- 3.16 BB/100
1,000,000 hands: +/- 1 BB/100
Source - https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
Hope that helps.
Here's another example of the extraordinary fickleness of variance.
The Sky Poker Final Table Jackpot takes quite a bit of winning.
Broadly speaking, the Main get ~180 entries, the Mini ~270, & to win a share of the Jackpot a player has to finish in the top six of both, on the same night.
The FTJ "runs" 365 nights per year. Pure guess on my part, but a FTJ payout probably takes place 12 to 15 times per year. (May be slightly more, but I don't keep records).
This week it's happened 3 times in 4 nights.
Never underestimate the power of variance.
Proper character testing game at times, isn't it? It's wonderful when we have a bit of run-good though. Hope your luck soon changes buddy
@Spike4000
Yup, it's brutal when it happens, but you could just as easily be A-Q man.
When our Aces get bust, telling our mates & others is a sort of psychological comfort blanket & we all want to do it. But when we are the A-Q, our mind forgets how lucky we got.
The ways our minds work with these things is utterly fascinating & very complex.
This is the problem... odds say that if there are going to be long runs, then there should be a lot more long winning runs than losing ones, but it never works out that way!
As he had been all in several times with poor holdings and it just wasnt allowing him to giveaway... the odds were just not possible for him to be surviving.
So we know in these circumstances that being a low stack, i would be facing that very hand against him soon and
what the outcome was going to be.
Which was precisely what happened first hand after the break, a non hi lo holding that flopped the nuts and even improved further..... i even typed 'may as well get the outdraw over with' before putting my chips in. Booker had already agreed in the break that this would happen as he felt he knew the score too.
Its disappointing players know in advance whats going to happen.
Hi mate
Can you put the WTF Hands on the WTF Thread with @misterpj please
..... I was hoping this thread would be more of a help for us rec's, with input from the best players on the site, on the hands posted
Cheers
Can you start your own threads with your MOANING hands please, so that those who want to ignore them, can
...... this thread was hopefully meant to be constructive and helpful for us rec's
Thank you in anticipation