Yay pats back . What u been up to mate? Posted by thomas87
Hey man, hope your good. I've been seriously preoccupied with a bunch of things this month. One less reg in the games for you :P Have you been playing at all?
Second day back on the grind after my prolonged absence. Great results thus far, so nothing really to complain about. Trying to bump the volume up as I'm going to London for the weekend to watch the OLYMPICS! After that, it'll be a flat out grind until I leave for America on the 15th-27th. Me and my dad are seeing my half-brother in North Carolina. No prority club this month. Next month, I really would like to give it a go!
Sharkscope missed out a few games, so no idea of the exact number played. But 60+ games, +£57.00
What events you seeing at the Olympics Pat? You going to hit Fox Poker Club or the Empire whilst your down? Posted by BUFC
Actually a pretty cool brag, somehow luckboxed 100 meter final tickets. No word of a lie. So it'll be pretty cool. I usually play at the Empire, but I'm not sure if I can afford it after the amount I've spent in the past week. Bills, roulette, 2 buy-ins for grand prix lol. Have you been to both, and if so which do you prefer?
You've mentioned as few times that you don't think a roi above 8 is realistic long term. Why? and what do you class as long term? I agree standard isn't that much better as you move up a couple of levels Still players limp folding every hand and raise folding from 6 bigs I'm gradually moving up again myself. When i started on here i was mainly playing 10s but found a bit of a comfort zone at 5s Interestingly for me my roi at 3s is pretty rubbish, about 4, but is higher at the next 2 levels. Trying to work it out i think it's probably due to having to win at showdown far more at the 3's. Good luck with moving up, just use sensible game selection. Also stay away from me!! I seem to lose every game when at same table as you! Posted by Jac35
I believe that on THIS SITE a winrate of 8% is a maximum for 99.99% of players over a sample size of 1000-1500 games. I base this on a number of different factors:
Rake - On Skypoker, we're charged a flat rate of 10% for all the DYMs we play. As the majority know, if we were to play 10 games, win 5 and lose 5, we would actually lose money. That means, that to make any profit whatsoever (pre-rakeback), your winrate must be 10.01%+. So, your very respectable winrate of 5%, is actually 15%. 1% is 11% etc (but we ignore this).
Flips - Over time 'flips' are inevitable in DYMs. For example, QQ vs AK, 22 vs AJss etc. As a rule of thumb, ignoring many factors, players with equal stack sizes should avoid flips. If you had QQ, and was guarenteed to be against AK suited and the winner of the hand cashes, you're only a 3.5% favourite in the hand. Therefore, over time you would lose money because of the rake. Many players are delusional when it comes to hand percentages. For example, ignoring other factors, 98 suited is a favourite over 22. Flips over time, negatively effect your winrate. I avoid as many flips as I can, which I believe increases my winrate.
Sadly flips are inevitable, for example during 200/400 blinds, your in the bb with A7 and your active villian on the sb shoves. Your stack sizes are equal at 1200, and there are no other players on low chips. You snap with A7 and your opponent has 89 suited - Your just a 53% favourite in the hand. That means 53/100 you win the hand. Taking into consideration rake, that means your ROI is -3.63% over time.
Lineup - If you asked a very respected SNG regular (on a well known site with winnings of $50,000+) of the maximum achievable winrate in DYMs of $9-$17 stakes. The player would answer 4-5% as the absolute maximum. However, I believe that we're blessed on this site. Ultimately we want as many bad players in our games as possible as they increase our winrate. On well known sites, there is often 4 regulars and 2 fish per table, making for very competative games. On Skypoker, at the lower stake DYM tables (£5.50/£11) - there are often 2 'regulars' and 4 very average players. Due to this, I believe a higher winrate is achievable.
Number of tables - Players winrates diminish as the number of tables they play increases. I myself play up to 14 tables, and would say that at my peak, this negatively influences my winrate. If I were to 2 table (which I respect is peak for some people), my expected winrate may be substantially higher than it currently is, but my hourly would decrease. Ultimately as 'grinders', we want to maximise our hourly winrate, whilst keeping our sanity.
As a conclusion, I would say a semi-accurate sample size is 3,000 games, ideally however 5,000 games+ before you know your true winrate, 25k+ games. The higher your expected ROI, the lower the variance, because your pushing edges others aren't, getting away from losing hands others aren't etc etc. There are numerous players that have a 25,000 game sample size with a 4-5% average ROI, that face 3k+ game break even stretches! Variance is such a massively underestimated variable in poker. So yeah, someone multi-tabling 6+ tables 8%, unless your in the top 0.05% imo. A very good player, with 1-4 tables running and heavily concentrating on them - maybe 10-11%.
(I just looked at your winrate Jac, and it's very nice. How many tables do you play if you don't mind me asking?)
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Today, I started off by playing an early afternoon DYM session that went well. Unfortunately between ending that session and this evening, I played £30NL heads up and lost £45 (sigh). Lost against a fish obviously. If I lost the same vs a solid reg I wouldn't care. Luckily I won the 7:20pm £4.40 Heads-up Bounty for £42, which erased the Heads-up deficit.
Evening DYM sessions were nice. Still running a little over my EV (expected value). Which basically means, that I think I'm winning more 1010 vs AK than I'm losing, dodging more flush draws with sets etc.
According to Sharkscope (Fairly sure it's accurate) - 55 SNGs played, £6 Average stake, Average ROI 9.1% +£37
Nice one. No haven't played either but have been in both. Empire certainly looks a better quality. Went down Chinatown yesterday and it was just so rammed with people stood around taking photos you could barely walk down the pavement!
Nice one. No haven't played either but have been in both. Empire certainly looks a better quality. Went down Chinatown yesterday and it was just so rammed with people stood around taking photos you could barely walk down the pavement! Posted by BUFC
Ahh I've just played Pokers at the Empire, love the place. I hate the casino there though! You have no idea how much I want to post a meme about cameras and chinatown, but I don't particularly want to get a racist ban. Scott, how are you getting all the tickets for the olympics and Darren Brown? Wait, you live in Spalding.......
Dtd, thoughts? Still interested in your thoughts from other post i made. Stop slacking! Posted by Jac35
My thoughts on DTD. I really liked the place, obviously it's great for Poker and the atmosphere was fantastic. I just wish I was a bigger fan of live poker. I can't deal with people trying to talk stratergy (shortly after limp folding utg to a small raise) and the scummy people that think the world owes them something. All in all, it's a lovely club and I can't wait to play there for the SPT Final come September.
I'm going Mexico vs Senegal @ Wembley 2moro (wud hav been GB, but they somehow managed to top their group so will play Korea in Cardiff, sigh). Skype u afta I get bak from footie or maybe Sun if u are on. PJ Posted by JingleMa
Ahh that sucks about it not being England. But a once in a lifetime oppertunity to go to an Olympic event in your own country nonetheless! Try Skyping me Sunday evening.
Really interesting post Pat. Agree with much of it especially about the better players being able to get away with only losing the minimum.
I think notes are an incredibly valuable tool in these games. Against some players i'm snap folding to shoves but against others i'm snap calling with exactly the same hand.
Variance is so huge and it can be so difficult to not tilt when you do lose the 200/400bb flips that you have to take on. A couple of days ago i lost the most i have in one day since starting on sky. Lost 8 consecutive flips and numerous daft ones like aa v a7, kk v q7. Dealing with these well is so important. First time for me on here i properly went on tilt and slagged some players off ( not proud of that ) and as a result began playing badly and giving chips away. Should have just done what i normally do and switch off laptop and accept that 'they' are entitled to put their money in with these hands and sometimes they win.
I disagree about number of regs in the games we play. Mostly now when the table fires up i see that i have notes on at least 3 of my opponents. Personally i like this as i find that much easier than a table of randoms where i have no idea of their thought processes.
I multi-table 7 dym's at a time, computer starts sulking if i play more. I'm happy with this number anyway, feel like i'm just randomly clicking buttons when i go above that number. I would certainly struggle with playing as many as you. Have you done any research into your 'hourly' playing different numbers of tables?
In Response to Re: Patwalshh - My Ongoing Journey [Includes Backstory/Updates] : Haha that's why I love you.. In Response to Re: Patwalshh - My Ongoing Journey [Includes Backstory/Updates] : Ahh that sucks about it not being England. But a once in a lifetime oppertunity to go to an Olympic event in your own country nonetheless! Try Skyping me Sunday evening. Posted by patwalshh
I'm down volunteering at the Olympics Pat. Not so much that I have tickets but I watch the events I am 'working' at. I'm staying down in London but yes I am from and still live in Spalding. I got the Derren Brown tickets off ebay, had really good seats under face value which was good.
Basically I was trying to say as much about variance and winrate as I could, without starting to talk DYM stratergy.
Key points:
- Notes are an invaluable tool. Sadly they're often underestimated/forgotten about. But lets keep that between us!
- Even though we're gifted in DYMs to a certain extent regarding variance, it's effects can still be devestating. Not only to our bankrolls, but to confidence, mood, mindframe etc etc. You just have to play through the swings, not tilt, and take breaks when necessary. We're in the Sharkscope star club now, which means that we have a lot on our shoulders!
-Sorry, I should have specified. By 'Regs', I mean either break even or winning DYM players. I love it when a table loads, I don't recognise any of the players from the top of my head, but have notes on such players. 9 times out of 10, this = a game with fishies.
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I've never looked at my expected ROI in comparison to the number of tables simultaneously played. Taking into consideration low starting blind levels and rakeback. I think playing the maximum number I'm comfortable with, is more profitable than playing less and concentrating more in my opinion.
All the best Jac, great to have you in the thread!
Friday, typically the day people come off work, have a few beers, relax and play Poker (preferably DYMs). So today I come home tilted already from a 4 hour speed awareness course (don't ask lol). Look in the lobby, and all the DYMs £5-£22 are completely full of Regs, I played an £11 DYM with me and 3 other fairly competent regulars! Games loaded slower today at 6.30pm than they have all week. Crazy. Nevertheless, got a little bit of volume in DYM wise (at a lower average buy-in than I've been playing all week) and made a small profit.
Had dinner, came back and saw the games weren't any better. Decided to some tables of 20NL cash. Ran good for once! Finally..
Worlds easiest call:
saints01
Small blind
£0.10
£0.10
£21.05
kidstax1
Big blind
£0.20
£0.30
£7.68
Your hole cards
Q
Q
KODILEIGH
Fold
patwalshh
Raise
£0.60
£0.90
£19.10
NFI
Fold
everest07
Call
£0.60
£1.50
£54.15
saints01
Call
£0.50
£2.00
£20.55
kidstax1
Call
£0.40
£2.40
£7.28
Flop
6
5
6
saints01
Check
kidstax1
Check
patwalshh
Bet
£1.30
£3.70
£17.80
everest07
Call
£1.30
£5.00
£52.85
saints01
Fold
kidstax1
Call
£1.30
£6.30
£5.98
Turn
6
kidstax1
All-in
£5.98
£12.28
£0.00
patwalshh
Call
£5.98
£18.26
£11.82
everest07
Fold
kidstax1
Show
3
5
patwalshh
Show
Q
Q
River
J
patwalshh
Win
Full House, 6s and Queens
£17.34
£29.16
Bit of a cooler (I was going to fold pre, but it was 30p for a pot of £3.60 lol)
Headed off to London for the Olympics on Saturday and stayed in a nice hotel with the family. Went out for a meal and chilled around Leicster square that evening. The next day we made our way to the Olympic stadium, and to sum it up, the place is unbelievable. I was one of the many doubters when London was annouced to hold the Olympic games, with thoughts of unfinished stadiums and general poor oganisation. I believe this Olympics has been nothing but a success for England.
I was lucky enough to watch the 100m final and see Usain Bolt set an olympic record, even with having a poor start in comparison to the majority of his opponents. I'll upload some pictures once I get hold of the family camera.
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Poker wise, this month has been exceptional so far. I'll definitely be re-reading this once I hit a 500 game break even stretch. But for now, I'm just letting the results speak for themself.
Still running hot, which is nice. Today was interesting, decided to register in a £55 DYM when 2 weaker players had already done so. Before I knew it the game was loading, which was amusing as I had a screen full of £5s and £10s running.. Had a big hand early on:
On a side note, I still need people to suggest a charity that I donate my £20 to for not reaching a couple of my goals last month. So if the forum could help with this, I'd be greatful!
Comments
What u been up to mate?
Sharkscope missed out a few games, so no idea of the exact number played. But 60+ games, +£57.00
Still interested in your thoughts from other post i made.
Stop slacking!
(I just looked at your winrate Jac, and it's very nice. How many tables do you play if you don't mind me asking?)
--
Today, I started off by playing an early afternoon DYM session that went well. Unfortunately between ending that session and this evening, I played £30NL heads up and lost £45 (sigh). Lost against a fish obviously. If I lost the same vs a solid reg I wouldn't care. Luckily I won the 7:20pm £4.40 Heads-up Bounty for £42, which erased the Heads-up deficit.
Evening DYM sessions were nice. Still running a little over my EV (expected value). Which basically means, that I think I'm winning more 1010 vs AK than I'm losing, dodging more flush draws with sets etc.
According to Sharkscope (Fairly sure it's accurate) - 55 SNGs played, £6 Average stake, Average ROI 9.1% +£37
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patwalshh
Pat, ur such a sick puppy.
100m final, stateside & gud@poker - so jealous.
I'm going Mexico vs Senegal @ Wembley 2moro (wud hav been GB, but they somehow managed to top their group so will play Korea in Cardiff, sigh).
Skype u afta I get bak from footie or maybe Sun if u are on.
PJ
Agree with much of it especially about the better players being able to get away with only losing the minimum.
I think notes are an incredibly valuable tool in these games.
Against some players i'm snap folding to shoves but against others i'm snap calling with exactly the same hand.
Variance is so huge and it can be so difficult to not tilt when you do lose the 200/400bb flips that you have to take on.
A couple of days ago i lost the most i have in one day since starting on sky.
Lost 8 consecutive flips and numerous daft ones like aa v a7, kk v q7. Dealing with these well is so important. First time for me on here i properly went on tilt and slagged some players off ( not proud of that ) and as a result began playing badly and giving chips away.
Should have just done what i normally do and switch off laptop and accept that 'they' are entitled to put their money in with these hands and sometimes they win.
I disagree about number of regs in the games we play.
Mostly now when the table fires up i see that i have notes on at least 3 of my opponents.
Personally i like this as i find that much easier than a table of randoms where i have no idea of their thought processes.
I multi-table 7 dym's at a time, computer starts sulking if i play more.
I'm happy with this number anyway, feel like i'm just randomly clicking buttons when i go above that number.
I would certainly struggle with playing as many as you.
Have you done any research into your 'hourly' playing different numbers of tables?
Cheers
Jac
Fish Friday
Had dinner, came back and saw the games weren't any better. Decided to some tables of 20NL cash. Ran good for once! Finally..
well played m8.
dev