Very disappointed in SAbatini and STenson. Must find a better tipster Posted by Eyeman
Tbh I'm very disappointed in myself for putting up Stenson. I rushed a bit last Monday, looking for a pick near the top of the market to supplement my outsiders. By Weds, as u know, I was regretting tipping him. His course form was abysmal. I was actually thinking why is he playing this week. I got my answer at the weekend, I read the following quote:-
" I'm only playing this week because the 2017 PGA is being held here, and I need to learn to play the course. Although it should suit my eye, it clearly doesn't, and I can't get the ball round the course".
I felt like emailing him after reading that and requesting my stake money back, but then I remembered Dubai last November and all was forgiven.
Still, yep a stupid mistake putting him in. As for Sabbatini....... Hmmmmm throw enough DARTS at the board, and one will stick..... (Smiley face)
After the disappointment of the mixed Grillo fading over the last few holes, and Sergio not serging up the leaderboard, we were looking at just one 66/1 place return, and not quiet enough to break even. Then up stepped Mr Woodland to the plate. Those of u on him with Paddy will have got the full place return. So it became 2 * 16.5/1 winners, enough to keep the run going.
What we did see this week was that yep, Rory wasn't just the easy option, but the sensible one too. Ironically though, £500 win on him would have returned £2250 (if u got the 7/2). £250 ew on either Simpson or Woodland got u £4375.
So to this week, and the problem that is Rory Mclroy. I watched his interview after his win last night (I'd already tested her indoors patience, so watching his post round interview, trying to get an insight to next week really didn't go down well. So it's not only a new spare TV on order today, but a new spare bed lol). Anyways yes Rory, he was flying overnight to the UK, he has loads of Nike promotional work on today in London. He'll arrive at the course tomoz. He's the defending champion, so he has other duties too. He'll prob get to play the course in the pro-am weds afternoon (yes he knows the course v well already). But he's got a lot on his plate, do u really want to take a short price about him?
Also, until last year he had terrible course form, and I think last years win was partly down to the fact that on the eve of the gig he told the world he'd called off his engagement etc, and he went into a bubble for the week, just concentrated 100% on golf and was able to get the job done.
ALSO, next week he's playing what he said last night is his '5th major' this year. He's hosting The Irish Open. He'll have lots to do for that pre the event, so I'm sure he'll spending time between rounds sorting that out too this week.
I'm actually going to check out what price he is to miss the cut this week.
Ok ok I'm taking Rory on.... I'm backing them all ew:- Donaldson 33/1 Molinari 33/1 Howell 50/1 Gallagher 80/1 Ormsby 125/1 25% Gallagher and Donaldson 20% Molinari and Howell 10% Ormsby I'll also have a dabble on The Crowne Plaza too. Selections to follow tomoz (I've already taken the 90/1 Rodgers with Stan James) Posted by joesman1
I have seen somewhere although cant find it on sky so it may have been elsewhere a place only bet. Although its nice when one of these gents wins such as Fowler the other week we are backing these to make the top six more than anything else due to short odds on probable winner or am I missing the mark here.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Wells Fargo + Open de Espana) : Think skybet must have spies in here Molinari 22/1 matchbook 34/1 Donaldson 33/1 matchbook 34/1 Howell 45/1 betfair 61/1 Gallager 70/1 betfair 89/1 Ormsby 80/1 betfair 332/1 Rodgers 50/1 betfair (back) at 94/1 I have seen somewhere although cant find it on sky so it may have been elsewhere a place only bet. Although its nice when one of these gents wins such as Fowler the other week we are backing these to make the top six more than anything else due to short odds on probable winner or am I missing the mark here. Posted by aiken2001
In short Mr Aiken.... Both..... I think we have more chance of getting Rory beat this week than last. Tougher field, plus all the hassle he's had to cope with this week too.
Looking through results history and stats, its easy to see that 'ball strikers' do well around here and a high GIR is possibly THE key to winning this week.
If you look at where the player leading the GIR stats came each year, you can see for the last 6 years the player ranked first for GIR would have given you a payout:
Ranked First for GIR, Tournament Position 2014 Gallacher - 5th 2013 - Khan - 2nd 2012 - Peter Lawrie - 4th 2011 - Westwood - 2nd 2010 - Khan - 1st 2009 - Wall - 6th
So its not difficult to see why players like Khan, Manessero, F Molinari, Gallacher, Westwood, Donald, Aitken and Bjorn have played well around here.
Even working out you are looking for a player who can hit more greens than most, still leaves a short list of 30 -40 possible candidates, so to get to my shortlist I ruled out the tours number one GIR ranked player, some bloke called Rory and went on current form (for players not named Rory), soft spots and good old gut feelings
Danny Willett - 45/1, now the cats out of the bag thanks to his 3rd place finish at the world matchplay and the fact that he is still 2nd behind Rory in the R2D I had decided I would probably bypass Danny at 25/1.
Maybe I'm blinded by my soft spot for the guy or blinded by the fact that I'm on him for the R2D, or blinded by the fact that last time I backed him he was 3rd at 200/1, but I'm still a little gobsmacked that the bookies are offering 45/1 this week.
He has a 5th place finish here, he's a leading GIR candidate if the rain comes the course plays a little longer, he has the length of the tee to not worry about wet conditions. He has the game and the confidence, I'm on again, more R2D points please.
Shane Lowry 45/1, last season a second place finish in this event basically gave Lowry the launchpad to take his game to the next level and eventually make the world top 50. He had a previous top 10 here, so clearly likes the course.
Branden Grace 40/1, has some decent course form, two time winner this year, he looks to me if he is ready to win a big event like this, if he gets into contention he's certainly knows how to close out a tournament.
Tommy Fleetwood 66/1, excellent game tee to green, I think the only thing that's held him back from winning more often is that he doesn't hole enough putts. Looks to have a similar game as Manessero did when he won here. My tip to be number 1 ranked for GIR this week. Will that be enough for at least a place?
Joost Luiten - 80/1, more gut feeling than the others for Luiten. I joost think he's been close to hitting form, he's had a bit of mixed schedule playing on both tours and many players tend to struggle when they juggle. He was 12th last year, but missed the cut the 3 previous years, so the gut may be playing up, but I've gone with it anyway.
To complete the portfolio I'll probably have one or two Golden Strike savers and no doubt have a dabble in the rags market.
It seems that for every tournament played in Texas, everyone clamors for the Texans and gets hung up on players who will theoretically handle the likely windy conditions.
I was going to be different, but my first pick here is in deed for a Texan, Jordan Spieth and Jimmy Walker are going to be popular but I've gone for the next Texan in the betting......
Ryan Palmer - 33/1, Palmer is a local resident he has some good course form, he has been playing very well this season, he's up there with the best for many a key stat. He's my Texan in Texas this week.
Paul Casey - 33/1, quality player back to his best, suffered with illness the night before his matchplay playoff with Rory resumed and had to pull out of The Players the week after. Should be refreshed and ready to go again, on a course that suits his game.
Ian Puolter - 40/1, I don't back Poulter very often, but he's been playing well this year, he plays well in windy conditions and in this field he must be fancying his own chances of getting that breakthrough win in a stroke play even in the States.
Charley Hoffman - 45/1, possibly for the first time in his career he is playing some quality golf for a sustained period. He has plenty of good finishes in Texas which can be significant. With the onus on tee to green play, the set up will suit Charley.
Chesson Hadley - 80/1, I've been waiting for a tournament or field like this to back Chesson Hadley. He's been making appearances on some top quality leaderboards recently. His best finish was tied 4th in Texas earlier this year, he won the Peurto Rico Open last year which is invariably played in windy conditions. The only blip is last year he shot two 77's to miss the cut by the odd 13 shots to finish 3rd from last, but he still beat Rickie Fowler by one and he doesn't seem to have done too badly recently.
In the USA, I've no strong opinion. I'm saving Spieth for The John Deere Classic, the week before our Open. I've already backed Rodgers ew @ 90/1. I was v impressed with him last week. My only other pick is Cameron Tringale ew @ 80/1. I'm putting 25% of my USA stake on each.
The other 50% is going on Gallagher to be the top Scot at Wentworth @ 7/2. If he wins that bet, I'm guaranteed a slight win on the week.
Edit:- Stake returned on Gallagher, as he's a non runner.
I think taking the long odds in bets without Rory makes some sense. Not a big hit on the odds, and obviously 2nd (if Rory wins) is a much better payout than an e/w 2nd place.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Wells Fargo + Open de Espana) : In short Mr Aiken.... Both..... I think we have more chance of getting Rory beat this week than last. Tougher field, plus all the hassle he's had to cope with this week too. Did u make a profit last week? Posted by joesman1
50% profit on my bet alas went rory ew so missed out a bit of value there be nice for Rodgers to win this week.
I've gone with Darties line of thinking with the GIR, and added a FRL. Led the GIR last year. Currently in 6th this year with 32 rounds counting! 4 of the 5 above him have only got 10 or fewer rounds recorded. Also showing good form. Oh and he came 7th last year. Thomas Aiken 66/1
With pre-tournament talk about what would be the best value to back a player to finish place only or in the Without Rory market, I tell you what would have been impressive...
If somebody had taken the 13/2 on Rory to miss the cut!!!
With pre-tournament talk about what would be the best value to back a player to finish place only or in the Without Rory market, I tell you what would have been impressive... If somebody had taken the 13/2 on Rory to miss the cut!!! Posted by TheDart
Very frustrating to be one week out picking Ann. But try as he did, Molinari didn't throw away the full place return, so it became a level week (ok Rory made it a winning one for me). So it's now 13 weeks on the trot with a return. Not quite the same ring to it.
Molinari - 33/1 Howell - 50/1 Levy - 66/1 -------- Zach Johnson 14/1 Paul Casey 33/1 Kevin Na 33/1 Posted by FlashFlush
Remind me to never back Na ever ever again! So both players lead all the way from day 1, then both shoot over par on Sunday. looking at odds of 1000/1 (As the double was 33/1 + 28/1) and in the end I just get £40 back for Molinari.
Oh and well played Swindon! What a fantastic day!!!
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Wells Fargo + Open de Espana) : Remind me to never back Na ever ever again! So both players lead all the way from day 1, then both shoot over par on Sunday. looking at odds of 1000/1 (As the double was 33/1 + 28/1) and in the end I just get £40 back for Molinari. Oh and well played Swindon! What a fantastic day!!! Posted by FlashFlush
Looking through results history and stats, its easy to see that 'ball strikers' do well around here and a high GIR is possibly THE key to winning this week.
If you look at where the player leading the GIR stats came each year, you can see for the last 6 years the player ranked first for GIR would have given you a payout:
Ranked First for GIR, Tournament Position 2014 - Gallacher - 5th 2013 - Khan - 2nd 2012 - Peter Lawrie - 4th 2011 - Westwood - 2nd 2010 - Khan - 1st 2009 - Wall - 6th
So after working out that high GIR was the key to success, who lead the GIR for the week an where did they finish?
Comments
Ok ok I'm taking Rory on.... I'm backing them all ew:-
Donaldson 33/1 Molinari 33/1 Howell 50/1 Gallagher 80/1 Ormsby 125/1
25% Gallagher and Donaldson
20% Molinari and Howell
10% Ormsby
I'll also have a dabble on The Crowne Plaza too. Selections to follow tomoz (I've already taken the 90/1 Rodgers with Stan James)
Edit:- Gallagher a non runner. So topped up my bets on Donaldson 30/1 Molinari 30/1 and Howell 50/1, all ew.
Molinari 22/1 matchbook 34/1
Donaldson 33/1 matchbook 34/1
Howell 45/1 betfair 61/1
Gallager 70/1 betfair 89/1
Ormsby 80/1 betfair 332/1
Rodgers 50/1 betfair (back) at 94/1
I have seen somewhere although cant find it on sky so it may have been elsewhere a place only bet. Although its nice when one of these gents wins such as Fowler the other week we are backing these to make the top six more than anything else due to short odds on probable winner or am I missing the mark here.
Looking through results history and stats, its easy to see that 'ball strikers' do well around here and a high GIR is possibly THE key to winning this week.
If you look at where the player leading the GIR stats came each year, you can see for the last 6 years the player ranked first for GIR would have given you a payout:
Ranked First for GIR, Tournament Position
2014 Gallacher - 5th
2013 - Khan - 2nd
2012 - Peter Lawrie - 4th
2011 - Westwood - 2nd
2010 - Khan - 1st
2009 - Wall - 6th
So its not difficult to see why players like Khan, Manessero, F Molinari, Gallacher, Westwood, Donald, Aitken and Bjorn have played well around here.
Even working out you are looking for a player who can hit more greens than most, still leaves a short list of 30 -40 possible candidates, so to get to my shortlist I ruled out the tours number one GIR ranked player, some bloke called Rory and went on current form (for players not named Rory), soft spots and good old gut feelings
Danny Willett - 45/1, now the cats out of the bag thanks to his 3rd place finish at the world matchplay and the fact that he is still 2nd behind Rory in the R2D I had decided I would probably bypass Danny at 25/1.
Maybe I'm blinded by my soft spot for the guy or blinded by the fact that I'm on him for the R2D, or blinded by the fact that last time I backed him he was 3rd at 200/1, but I'm still a little gobsmacked that the bookies are offering 45/1 this week.
He has a 5th place finish here, he's a leading GIR candidate if the rain comes the course plays a little longer, he has the length of the tee to not worry about wet conditions. He has the game and the confidence, I'm on again, more R2D points please.
Shane Lowry 45/1, last season a second place finish in this event basically gave Lowry the launchpad to take his game to the next level and eventually make the world top 50. He had a previous top 10 here, so clearly likes the course.
Branden Grace 40/1, has some decent course form, two time winner this year, he looks to me if he is ready to win a big event like this, if he gets into contention he's certainly knows how to close out a tournament.
Tommy Fleetwood 66/1, excellent game tee to green, I think the only thing that's held him back from winning more often is that he doesn't hole enough putts. Looks to have a similar game as Manessero did when he won here. My tip to be number 1 ranked for GIR this week. Will that be enough for at least a place?
Joost Luiten - 80/1, more gut feeling than the others for Luiten. I joost think he's been close to hitting form, he's had a bit of mixed schedule playing on both tours and many players tend to struggle when they juggle. He was 12th last year, but missed the cut the 3 previous years, so the gut may be playing up, but I've gone with it anyway.
To complete the portfolio I'll probably have one or two Golden Strike savers and no doubt have a dabble in the rags market.
Good Luck All
It seems that for every tournament played in Texas, everyone clamors for the Texans and gets hung up on players who will theoretically handle the likely windy conditions.
I was going to be different, but my first pick here is in deed for a Texan, Jordan Spieth and Jimmy Walker are going to be popular but I've gone for the next Texan in the betting......
Ryan Palmer - 33/1, Palmer is a local resident he has some good course form, he has been playing very well this season, he's up there with the best for many a key stat. He's my Texan in Texas this week.
Paul Casey - 33/1, quality player back to his best, suffered with illness the night before his matchplay playoff with Rory resumed and had to pull out of The Players the week after. Should be refreshed and ready to go again, on a course that suits his game.
Ian Puolter - 40/1, I don't back Poulter very often, but he's been playing well this year, he plays well in windy conditions and in this field he must be fancying his own chances of getting that breakthrough win in a stroke play even in the States.
Charley Hoffman - 45/1, possibly for the first time in his career he is playing some quality golf for a sustained period. He has plenty of good finishes in Texas which can be significant. With the onus on tee to green play, the set up will suit Charley.
Chesson Hadley - 80/1, I've been waiting for a tournament or field like this to back Chesson Hadley. He's been making appearances on some top quality leaderboards recently. His best finish was tied 4th in Texas earlier this year, he won the Peurto Rico Open last year which is invariably played in windy conditions. The only blip is last year he shot two 77's to miss the cut by the odd 13 shots to finish 3rd from last, but he still beat Rickie Fowler by one and he doesn't seem to have done too badly recently.
Decided to have a bash at the FRL market as well this week:
Branden Grace - 45/1
Danny Willett - 50/1
Tommy Fleetwood - 66/1
Thomas Aitken - 66/1
Matteo Manessero -66/1
With pre-tournament talk about what would be the best value to back a player to finish place only or in the Without Rory market, I tell you what would have been impressive...
If somebody had taken the 13/2 on Rory to miss the cut!!!
Looking through results history and stats, its easy to see that 'ball strikers' do well around here and a high GIR is possibly THE key to winning this week.
If you look at where the player leading the GIR stats came each year, you can see for the last 6 years the player ranked first for GIR would have given you a payout:
Ranked First for GIR, Tournament Position
2014 - Gallacher - 5th
2013 - Khan - 2nd
2012 - Peter Lawrie - 4th
2011 - Westwood - 2nd
2010 - Khan - 1st
2009 - Wall - 6th
So after working out that high GIR was the key to success, who lead the GIR for the week an where did they finish?
2015 - Byeong Hun An - 1st