Thanks to Fitzpatrick, a bit of confidence has returned, it was waivering a bit.
Right to this week. I'll obv start with my Lucky 15 bet. I'm still happy to have Jimmy Walker on board @ 50/1 ew. So I've £160 on him to win @ that price, and £50 to place @ 12.5/1 from Spieth winning @ 16/1.
I'll top my Walker bet up ew @ the best price available tomorrow, once the bookies start pushing players out to get our business. Last week I took the 40/1 about Furyk ew 1st 6 with The Power. I notice Skybet have pushed him out to that price today, and I think I'll go in ew again. I just feel he might shorten up before tee off time, and that this quirky set up might just suit his game. My other main fancy at this moment is Matsuyama, but again, I'll wait and see what tomorrow brings price wise before stepping in.
No doubt I'll add some special market jobbies before it kicks off.
I've already placed my bets last week. Good job really, because a mixture of sucky poker and sucky golfers means all of my betting accounts are getting smaller and smaller (Majority of them now at 0!)
Phil Mickelson - 25/1 - £50 e/w - I normally bet between £2.50 - £10 e/w depending on price/confidence so I've stepped it up big time for this one. 6 times finished 2nd in the US Open. Only major left for him to complete the grand slam. Does well on links courses. Oh and he turns 45 tomorrow. Everything seems to be all set for him. I noticed his odds have been cut considerably. Now around 16/1
Jim Furyk - 40/1 - £7.50 e/w - So I've got one, "smash it, find it and smash it again" player, to an only ever the middle of the fairway player. Been criticised a lot the last couple of years over not getting the job finished off. What a tournament this would be to shut everyone up.
Ryan Moore - 80/1 - £4.50 e/w - Looking for people who may have decent course knowledge here and also the ability to back it up. Ryan Moore was born in this town, and although now lives in Vegas (WAL) he will of surely come back a few times since knowing the Open would be played here.
Michael Putnam - 300/1 - £2.50 e/w - As I wrote the other day. First person to ever play a competitive round here (Therefore a former course record holder haha) played dozens of rounds. His Brother works as a caddy on the course I believe so should have perfect course knowledge on every tee and pin position.
Same approach as Flash for me, I placed my bets early, which will be a real test of my resolve between now and Thursday as I try and resist adding anyone else.
Phil Mickleson - 25/1, the combined support of myself and Flash has meant Mickleson's price is now into 16/1. When you read that the players need to do their homework for this course, you just know there won't be many better prepared than Phil Mickleson. It would be great to see him complete the career grand slam.
Hideki Matsuyama - 40/1, I've looked for players who have a good all round game, decent recent form, shown form on links courses, high on the scrambling stats and competed well in other majors. For me Matsuyama fits the bill.
Brandt Snedeker - 66/1, when I was going through specific stats on the PGA Tour website, there were two players, who kept featuring near the top, Matsuyama and Snedeker. I also like that Snedeker has won at Pebble Beach, has a top 5 in The Open and looks to be putting very well again.
Shane Lowry - 125/1, quality links player with a top notch short game, if he's done a bit of homework and found a new putter he likes (broke his last one in the Irish Open) he could have a good week.
Mark Leishman - 125/1, tied 5th in The Open last year, also tied 4th at The Masters 2 years ago, so can handle links courses and the heat of a Major.
Danny Willett - 300/1, I've been backing Danny Willett regularly for The Open this year, thanks to the 300/1 on offer until very recently, I would be just as happy with a US Open payout as I would a top 5 in The Open.
Remains 2nd in the R2D, was 3rd in the World Matchplay, links record read 8 top tens in 11 links events played.
I'm chuffed to have got my quota on at 300/1, I still think 125/1 today looks great value.
Poker and golf betting are very similar in many ways. U get your Flashy and Darty types who clearly know their stuff, plenty of research, good reasoning, very convincing too, and obv successful. There's plenty of those at the poker tables too, again they are successful. Then u get me and my types. Very little 'homework' regarding the golf, going more on intuition. At the poker table I NEVER use Hendon Mob to research my opponents. Again I use intuition, and how I feel about them on the day, and what I see when I look them in the eye. Takes all types to make the world go round. #endofphilosophylesson
Clearly bored and in bed, hoping for some sunshine tomorrow.
I think that is a big reason behind your recent success on the poker tables. Far too many people nowadays have only 1 style of play. "The standard play" but if everyone is playing the same way you need to be the player that plays against that.
It gets spoken about a lot in poker chat. "Being ahead of the curve" I don't think you need to be ahead of the curve as such, you just need to understand why somebody is making a certain move and act accordingly. This comes with experience and confidence. Both of which you now have live and online. I feel personally I have that online, but I am useless live as I don't have either confidence or enough experience.
As far as bringing this in line with golf betting. I have all the confidence in the world, until about 9 holes in on Thursday. Then I sulk.
Just had a look to see Tiger's odds for missing the CUT. I expected to see around 1/3 but he was 8/11! That's a steal IMO. He shot 85 the other day around a regular PGA track. This course will find every weakness in your game and Tiger has a lot of them at the moment.
Just had a look to see Tiger's odds for missing the CUT. I expected to see around 1/3 but he was 8/11! That's a steal IMO. He shot 85 the other day around a regular PGA track. This course will find every weakness in your game and Tiger has a lot of them at the moment. Tiger Woods to miss the CUT - 8/11 - £80 Posted by FlashFlush
Very interesting bet there Charles.
I see Tiger is Evens to make the CUT, which if you were in the Tiger camp would also look a great bet.
I can't make my mind up which way I'd go.
Everyone knows his biggest weakness is his driving, reading that the fairways are as fast if not faster than the greens, maybe he can get away with a 3 wood and a few irons with infamous low stingers off the tee.
If I was pushed I think I'd probably go for Tiger making the cut, but I could also see him easily being amongst the stragglers after 9 holes.
Well after posting about this on a facebook page, a lot of people said they think Tiger will do well and contend. They keep saying wide fairways will be good for him and his imagination will get him out of trouble.
The way I saw it, the only event he has done well on this year is the Masters which is very much horses for courses and we all know he's not done too bad around there before. He seems to only play alright when he has heaps of course knowledge. Obviously there is very little/none here pre-tournament so it's a lot more of a level playing field.
Those greens look lightening fast and rock hard, both of which will severely test the players scrambling and Tigers short game was an absolute mess earlier in the season...
I saw something written by Rory saying he has been coming in to certain greens with a 6-7 iron and can't keep it on the green. He said majority of other players will be having to hit 4-5 iron and he can't see how they can possibly get close on some greens. If Tiger is using an iron to hit fairways, is it really that beneficial if he's hitting a 4 iron into greens like that?
All will become clear soon, really looking forward to it. I'm out tonight so will miss nearly all of the coverage, but I'll be watching the scores.
Yes fascinating build up to this event, so many unknowns, so many conflicting opinions from the players, never mind the media and pundits.
I saw that Rory said those players that carry the ball 295 yards will have a definite advantage, I read that Monty thinks short hitters like himself will be able to get it around the course just as well as the bombers.
From a few other comments it does sound like there might be 3 or 4 holes that the shorter hitters will really struggle to make par on, the 18th when it plays as a par 4 being one of those holes.
It sounds like there well be a big onus on players needing to pick the right lines from tee to green and sometimes that will depend on accuracy, sometimes length, sometimes a combination of both.
With so many unknowns, maybe the later starters will have an advantage today, as they will have the chance to gauge how the course is playing, from seeing how the morning starters perform and how tough each hole is playing.
Just had a look to see Tiger's odds for missing the CUT. I expected to see around 1/3 but he was 8/11! That's a steal IMO. He shot 85 the other day around a regular PGA track. This course will find every weakness in your game and Tiger has a lot of them at the moment. Tiger Woods to miss the CUT - 8/11 - £80 Posted by FlashFlush
Don,t want to curse it but V. nice bet ( 10 over after 15 ) 2nd last
Nice steady start for Putman as well at level par. Would be a gr8 result all round with so many ppl geting on board
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (US Open) : Don,t want to curse it but V. nice bet ( 10 over after 15 ) 2nd last Nice steady start for Putman as well at level par. Would be a gr8 result all round with so many ppl geting on board Posted by MP33
Fingers crossed! I imagine he will have to shoot 4 or 5 under today to make the cut and I can't see that happening!
The main 3 bets I'm interested in is the Tiger m/c. Michael Putnam and my main bet Phil Mickelson. Phil has had a steady -1. Bit disapointing as he was -3 and looking to run away early doors. Long way to go yet.
You would expect the morning starters to have a big advantage over the late starters today, possibly more so than yesterday, with that in mind I've had 3 bets on the end of round 2 leader market.
Jordan Spieth - 10/1, 3 off the lead, a morning tee time today, 10/1 looks very generous to me. Branden Grace - 80/1 ew first 4 Shane Lowry - 80/1 ew first 4
Expensive week for me. Only the Tiger bet was successful. Then watching the action yesterday early doors Dustin was looking like he could run away with it so i put £100 on him. Only for him to then, what can only be described as a shank and stop all of his momentum.
Add that to the constant 2 and 3 outers I'm getting on the poker tables and it all leads to a depressing Monday.
Comments
Phil Mickleson - 25/1, the combined support of myself and Flash has meant Mickleson's price is now into 16/1.
When you read that the players need to do their homework for this course, you just know there won't be many better prepared than Phil Mickleson. It would be great to see him complete the career grand slam.
Hideki Matsuyama - 40/1, I've looked for players who have a good all round game, decent recent form, shown form on links courses, high on the scrambling stats and competed well in other majors. For me Matsuyama fits the bill.
Brandt Snedeker - 66/1, when I was going through specific stats on the PGA Tour website, there were two players, who kept featuring near the top, Matsuyama and Snedeker. I also like that Snedeker has won at Pebble Beach, has a top 5 in The Open and looks to be putting very well again.
Shane Lowry - 125/1, quality links player with a top notch short game, if he's done a bit of homework and found a new putter he likes (broke his last one in the Irish Open) he could have a good week.
Mark Leishman - 125/1, tied 5th in The Open last year, also tied 4th at The Masters 2 years ago, so can handle links courses and the heat of a Major.
Danny Willett - 300/1, I've been backing Danny Willett regularly for The Open this year, thanks to the 300/1 on offer until very recently, I would be just as happy with a US Open payout as I would a top 5 in The Open.
Remains 2nd in the R2D, was 3rd in the World Matchplay, links record read 8 top tens in 11 links events played.
I'm chuffed to have got my quota on at 300/1, I still think 125/1 today looks great value.
Michael Putnam top 20
£2 @ 10/1.
Be lucky
Placed (matched)Order by Matched Date
I see Tiger is Evens to make the CUT, which if you were in the Tiger camp would also look a great bet.
I can't make my mind up which way I'd go.
Everyone knows his biggest weakness is his driving, reading that the fairways are as fast if not faster than the greens, maybe he can get away with a 3 wood and a few irons with infamous low stingers off the tee.
If I was pushed I think I'd probably go for Tiger making the cut, but I could also see him easily being amongst the stragglers after 9 holes.
Best of Luck with this one Flash.
I saw that Rory said those players that carry the ball 295 yards will have a definite advantage, I read that Monty thinks short hitters like himself will be able to get it around the course just as well as the bombers.
From a few other comments it does sound like there might be 3 or 4 holes that the shorter hitters will really struggle to make par on, the 18th when it plays as a par 4 being one of those holes.
It sounds like there well be a big onus on players needing to pick the right lines from tee to green and sometimes that will depend on accuracy, sometimes length, sometimes a combination of both.
With so many unknowns, maybe the later starters will have an advantage today, as they will have the chance to gauge how the course is playing, from seeing how the morning starters perform and how tough each hole is playing.
I managed to control myself by only adding one more player to my main portfolio:
Jason Dufner - 100/1, we all know he's dodgy on those short putts, but he's one of the best with a putter in hand at long distances.
Pretty unflappable and showed a marked improvement in form recently.
and then I went to the rag market
Steve Marino - 600/1 outright, 150/1 FRL
Colin Montgomerie - 750/1 outright, 250/1 FRL
John Parry - 1000/1, 250/1 FRL
Other FRL bets:
Brandt Snedeker - 45/1
Mark Leishman - 80/1
Danny Willett - 100/1
Good Luck ALL!!!
If he was somehow to make the cut I think it would be an even bigger achievement than his 14 major wins.
I know beforehand I said if pushed I would have gone for Tiger to make the cut, just glad I didn't place the bet with any bookies.
You would expect the morning starters to have a big advantage over the late starters today, possibly more so than yesterday, with that in mind I've had 3 bets on the end of round 2 leader market.
Jordan Spieth - 10/1, 3 off the lead, a morning tee time today, 10/1 looks very generous to me.
Branden Grace - 80/1 ew first 4
Shane Lowry - 80/1 ew first 4