Ok so onto this week:- Lowry main bet this week, I was all over the 22/1. Donaldson was my original 2nd pick @ 28/1, but he's pulled out. I've taken the 90/1 about Sullivan. To replace Donaldson I've split his stake, 50% of it on R Fisher @ 100/1, and the other 50% on Siem @ 125/1. And finally a little tickle on Phelan 200/1. All ew Posted by joesman1
Nice pick on Sullivan shame he came up a shot short still onwards and upwards for tonights entertainment.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Byron Nelson + Irish Open) : Nice pick on Sullivan shame he came up a shot short still onwards and upwards for tonights entertainment. Posted by aiken2001
If u backed Sullivan with Skybet or Paddy (as I did) u got 1/2 the place as they were paying top 6 this week.
Nobody stands out for me this week at all, so I should just leave it and be a spectator, but like any true gambler, that just won't happen. Just little bets this week to keep the interest.
Nordea
My local heroes both grew up playing on courses within 18 miles of me. (either side)
David Howell - 40/1
Eddie Pepperell - 40/1
Memorial
Hoping to have picked some pretty consistent performers who can still give me a glimmer of hope come Sunday
Alex Noren - 20/1, at first I thought 20/1 was a bit skinny, but when you look at the field and take into account Noren's recent form and the fact that he has won this event in the past, I'd rather take my chances on Noren at 20/1, with a place paying 5/1, than market leader Henrik Stenson, who is 9/2 for the win.
Alexander Levy - 40/1, undoubted talent, started off really well last week, before the course and conditions got the better of him. Last Monday he won the US Open qualifier, I like Levy at 40/1 this week.
Lucas Bjerrergaard - 125/1, impressivetop 20 last week which included a third round 66, also got through the US Open qualifier last Monday. A young Dane who might get a bit of extra inspiration from the 'old' Dane Soren Kjeldesn showing him how its done last week.
Bradley Dredge - 150/1, low key start to the year and even though he finished tied 10th last week, I think he remained largely under the radar, which is perhaps why the bookies don't seem too bothered about Mr. Dredge. Tied 25th here last year, so a nice bit of course form to tick an extra box.
Justin Rose - 20/1, former winner around here, with plenty of other good results on this course. 20/1 the win, 5/1 a place seems fair to me.
Brooks Koepka - 55/1, first time here, but that didn't stop Matsuyama last year. The player profile to do well at this course seems to resemble a US Open type player, Koepka was 4th in the US Open last year, he has a superb game and to me looks to be overpriced this week.
Then I was left with 3 players at 3 figure odds, I wanted to keep my picks to a total of 4 but couldn't make my mind up which player to drop, so since the bookies are being so generous, I've backed all 3....
Nick Watney - 100/1 Kevin Chappell - 125/1 Sean O'Hair - 125/1
Ok I've taken the opposite view of Jerome this week. Stenson had this event (at this course) at his mercy last year and threw it away. He'll want to make amends this year in a weaker field. Happy to stake 50% at sky bets enhanced 5/1 that he does that. Imo much better value than Rory has been past 2 weeks. Also 25% of stake on Pepperell ew @ 40/1 - he was leading here at one point last year, and showed good form last week. Finally the other 25% on Rikard Karlberg ew @ 100/1.
In the USA I'm on Matsuyama to go back to back ew @ 22/1 for 50% of my stake. Henley ew @ 60/1 for 35%. The final 15% on Chappell ew @ 125/1 (with Paddy so top 6).
Finally chasing the dream I've done Stenson and Matsuyama in an ew double.
Very well done Mr Dart. Though gutted for u too as I know how much the double meant, both financially, and just as importantly to us 'experts', for bragging rights purposes. Still can't believe the Swede managed to follow Rose in on the 1st play off hole, sigh......
Must be something about this week, as The Flashman got the double up on it 2 years ago. This time next year boys!!!!!
As for this coming week, I'll be having only a token interest in the US, as its pre US Open week, and u never quiet know what to expect. That said, the week before the British Open, I'll be having my biggest bet since the Masters in the John Deere Classic. In Europe, I'm hoping to see 6/1 about Weisberger, and I'll just lump on ew, and basically that will be 80% of my total stake for this week. I'll see what the bookies offer.
Burnt Cheeseburger - 5/1 (Win only) - I think his odds are very harsh this week and it's probably a mistake backing him so short, but to be honest I've not looked into it hard enough to pick out longer ew bets. This course looks like it needs GIR and putts with GIR. I put these into the golf betting system predictor along with past tournament history and he came out with more than double 2nd place.
Lee Slattery - 55/1 - Slipped away a bit the last 12 months or so. I remember we used to back him fairly regularly. Has good form here and 7th last week.
St Jude CLassic
3 names popped out for me this week. Dustin Johnson (Let me down the other week). Billy Horschel (Can't back him at 16/1) and Phil Mickelson (He's my bet for the US Open so I don't want him winning this week!)
Matt Every - 90/1 - 3rd here last year. Coming here off of a missed cut, but last year he came here after 3 MC and a WD so he is very much an all or nothing player. Already won the Arnold Palmer invitational this year which he also won last year, so hoping he has a parallel season to last year.
Will Wilcox - 100/1 - Splitting his season over both the PGA and Webb.com tour. Only getting a chance to play the smaller PGA Tour events so will be keen to get some decent $ under his belt. His last outing was 2 weeks ago at the Byron Nelson where he shot 3x 67's and a 68, good enough for T22 so a solid result. Played here last year for the first time and finished T19. He came into the event with no form and played far worse in the AT&T then than he did this year.
Last week my gut feeling was leishman, who would have turned a small profit 1/3 of a place at 80/1. Obviously I backed Finau again, and he left me just short.
Bernd Weisberger has the lot this week, course form, current form, local favorite and obvious class against the field, 5/1 or 11/2 doesn't actually feel that bad, once I've worked out my final outlay I might come back and have a saver on Bernd, but for now my focus has been elsewhere.
Julien Quesne - 33/1, four top 10's in his last 8 starts since the beginning of March, including a tied 8th at Wentworth against a high quality field. Before that his last top 10 was in April 2014, so signs are Julien Qusne is in a good run of form at the moment.
Should feel like a big fish in this small pond this week, looks decent value at 33/1 the win and 8.25/1 the place.
Scott Jamieson - 50/1, having a steady if unspectacular season, he is capable of better and given he finished tied 8th in his one appearance here, maybe this will be the week Jamieson gets in amongst them at the top of the leaderboard.
Lee Slattery - 50/1, Same reasons as Flash has picked up on, he has top 10's here in the past he was a fast finishing 7th last week, with limited starts he seems to be playing well when he gets the chance.
Andrew McArthur - 100/1, plays mostly on the Challenge Tour and is currently ranked 6th for the season, thanks mainly to a second and third place finish in May. Looks a decent price in this field given his recent form.
Oliver Fisher - 150/1, tied 50th last week after a run of 5 missed cuts. I'm speculating the tied 50th was a sign that things might be clicking back in place. History shows with Oliver Fisher that he can quickly go from forlorn no hoper to suddenly competing at the top.
I had a long day at work Monday and was half asleep by the time I logged on Monday night.
I posted a couple of weeks ago I'd been waiting for the right tournament for Chesson Hadley and despite him having no course form I plumped for him a couple of weeks ago in a similar weak field.
When I saw that Hadley was 13th here last year and that was in the middle of a poor run, I rushed to get the 100/1 that was available.
I clicked on the bet confirm and my receipt said....Chesson Hadley ew 100/1, First Round Leader
So I then had to go back and stake the same amount again this time on the outright market.
I then decided to call it a night!
So picks for the St Jude Classic:
Chesson Hadley - 100/1, outright AND first round leader
Luke Donald - 40/1, there's a lot of evidence pointing to Luke Donald getting back to something like the former world number one he once was. He played in and got through a US Open qualifier yesterday.
Going with the hunch that the more competitive rounds he plays the more settled he is going to be, I think 40/1 is good.
Patrick Rodgers - 66/1, he's had a bit of an erratic month, playing some unbelievable golf at times. Now he's secured his card he should be able to settle down and concentrate on winning tournaments, which is surely something he will do sooner rather than later.
I like the fact the he pulled out of the US Open qualifying on Monday as I think that would have been one distraction too many.
Sam Saunders - 500/1, OK he's no Arnold Palmer, but on more than one occasion he has shown signs that he could win at least one PGA Tour event to add to his Grandad's collection.
Lost in a playoff earlier this year and yesterday joint top scored with two 66's in the strongest of the US Open Qualifier fields.
Just a little tip for you all. I've already mentioned this to Neil, but may as well let you all in on the secret ....
Chambers Bay for the US Open as we know is a new course, so very little course knowledge by the majority of the field. Except Michael Putnam. He lives 1 mile from the course and got through his qualifier T1 with a 66. He was apparently the first ever person to play the course and shot 70. He must of played it dozens of times since then in all sorts of conditions. He was going off best price 300/1, but now our Irish friend Patrick Power has just popped up with 500/1! Could be a great top20 bet when the markets open.
To add to that, his brother is caddying for him and has reportedly had over 500 trips around the course!
Just a little tip for you all. I've already mentioned this to Neil, but may as well let you all in on the secret .... Chambers Bay for the US Open as we know is a new course, so very little course knowledge by the majority of the field. Except Michael Putnam. He lives 1 mile from the course and got through his qualifier T1 with a 66. He was apparently the first ever person to play the course and shot 70. He must of played it dozens of times since then in all sorts of conditions. He was going off best price 300/1, but now our Irish friend Patrick Power has just popped up with 500/1! Could be a great top20 bet when the markets open. To add to that, his brother is caddying for him and has reportedly had over 500 trips around the course! Posted by FlashFlush
Comments
Nice pick on Sullivan shame he came up a shot short
Alex Noren - 20/1, at first I thought 20/1 was a bit skinny, but when you look at the field and take into account Noren's recent form and the fact that he has won this event in the past, I'd rather take my chances on Noren at 20/1, with a place paying 5/1, than market leader Henrik Stenson, who is 9/2 for the win.
Alexander Levy - 40/1, undoubted talent, started off really well last week, before the course and conditions got the better of him. Last Monday he won the US Open qualifier, I like Levy at 40/1 this week.
Lucas Bjerrergaard - 125/1, impressive top 20 last week which included a third round 66, also got through the US Open qualifier last Monday. A young Dane who might get a bit of extra inspiration from the 'old' Dane Soren Kjeldesn showing him how its done last week.
Bradley Dredge - 150/1, low key start to the year and even though he finished tied 10th last week, I think he remained largely under the radar, which is perhaps why the bookies don't seem too bothered about Mr. Dredge. Tied 25th here last year, so a nice bit of course form to tick an extra box.
Justin Rose - 20/1, former winner around here, with plenty of other good results on this course. 20/1 the win, 5/1 a place seems fair to me.
Brooks Koepka - 55/1, first time here, but that didn't stop Matsuyama last year. The player profile to do well at this course seems to resemble a US Open type player, Koepka was 4th in the US Open last year, he has a superb game and to me looks to be overpriced this week.
Then I was left with 3 players at 3 figure odds, I wanted to keep my picks to a total of 4 but couldn't make my mind up which player to drop, so since the bookies are being so generous, I've backed all 3....
Nick Watney - 100/1
Kevin Chappell - 125/1
Sean O'Hair - 125/1
My best week 'so far' this year, though with me committing to the Noren / Rose double it came agonizingly close to being my best week ever.
The week before a major are usually difficult events and this week looks tricky on both sides of The Atlantic.
Poor value at the top of the market and host of nearly men and bottlers in the rag markets.
I love a challenge
Good Luck All
Bernd Weisberger has the lot this week, course form, current form, local favorite and obvious class against the field, 5/1 or 11/2 doesn't actually feel that bad, once I've worked out my final outlay I might come back and have a saver on Bernd, but for now my focus has been elsewhere.
Julien Quesne - 33/1, four top 10's in his last 8 starts since the beginning of March, including a tied 8th at Wentworth against a high quality field. Before that his last top 10 was in April 2014, so signs are Julien Qusne is in a good run of form at the moment.
Should feel like a big fish in this small pond this week, looks decent value at 33/1 the win and 8.25/1 the place.
Scott Jamieson - 50/1, having a steady if unspectacular season, he is capable of better and given he finished tied 8th in his one appearance here, maybe this will be the week Jamieson gets in amongst them at the top of the leaderboard.
Lee Slattery - 50/1, Same reasons as Flash has picked up on, he has top 10's here in the past he was a fast finishing 7th last week, with limited starts he seems to be playing well when he gets the chance.
Andrew McArthur - 100/1, plays mostly on the Challenge Tour and is currently ranked 6th for the season, thanks mainly to a second and third place finish in May. Looks a decent price in this field given his recent form.
Oliver Fisher - 150/1, tied 50th last week after a run of 5 missed cuts. I'm speculating the tied 50th was a sign that things might be clicking back in place. History shows with Oliver Fisher that he can quickly go from forlorn no hoper to suddenly competing at the top.
First up I've got a confession to make.
I had a long day at work Monday and was half asleep by the time I logged on Monday night.
I posted a couple of weeks ago I'd been waiting for the right tournament for Chesson Hadley and despite him having no course form I plumped for him a couple of weeks ago in a similar weak field.
When I saw that Hadley was 13th here last year and that was in the middle of a poor run, I rushed to get the 100/1 that was available.
I clicked on the bet confirm and my receipt said....Chesson Hadley ew 100/1, First Round Leader
So I then had to go back and stake the same amount again this time on the outright market.
I then decided to call it a night!
So picks for the St Jude Classic:
Chesson Hadley - 100/1, outright AND first round leader
Luke Donald - 40/1, there's a lot of evidence pointing to Luke Donald getting back to something like the former world number one he once was. He played in and got through a US Open qualifier yesterday.
Going with the hunch that the more competitive rounds he plays the more settled he is going to be, I think 40/1 is good.
Patrick Rodgers - 66/1, he's had a bit of an erratic month, playing some unbelievable golf at times. Now he's secured his card he should be able to settle down and concentrate on winning tournaments, which is surely something he will do sooner rather than later.
I like the fact the he pulled out of the US Open qualifying on Monday as I think that would have been one distraction too many.
Sam Saunders - 500/1, OK he's no Arnold Palmer, but on more than one occasion he has shown signs that he could win at least one PGA Tour event to add to his Grandad's collection.
Lost in a playoff earlier this year and yesterday joint top scored with two 66's in the strongest of the US Open Qualifier fields.
Got to be worth a dabble at 500/1.
I'm on.