Have gone for three FRL bets: Danny Willett 66/1 Andy Sullivan 80/1 Scott Hend 150/1 All start early and all can get out of the traps quickly. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Willett gets a part place for Tied 4th in FRL so bets nearly covered for the week and with three players in the top eight, should hopefully get another winner.
WGC Cadillac Championship Some weeks the bets jump out at you but this is one of those weeks where they don't really. We can probably eliminate 75% of the field reasonably easily but after that, it is possible to argue a good case for most of the rest. This tournament is played on the Doral Course (often known as the Blue Monster), which clearly favours the big hitters and 48 of the World Top 50 are competing here in the toughest field so far of 2016. McIlroy heads the betting at 10/1 with Bubba, Dustin, Scott, Speith, Day, Fowler, Stenson & Rose not far behind. Making a long list was easy; selecting the winner is a fair bit tougher. We have many years on this course so plenty of form to go on & driving distance has provided most of the winners and pretty much none of the other performance stats comes close in finding a winner. However, in 2014 the course was redesigned, making it much tougher but still favouring the big hitters. There have been some adjustments for this year, most significantly dropping several bunkers back 20-40 yards to catch the big hitters drives. How much effect this has is unknown. Last season's big three are here but none of them has set the world alight this season although I have to admit to being tempted by Rory at a double figures price. One thing that I have noticed about golfers who do well in this event is that they are invariably golfers who went into this event in form. It is not a course that favours first time players. So we are looking for big hitters, a good course record and good current form. I think we have to bypass McIlroy, Speith, Day & Fowler here; the first three on grounds of form and Fowler because he struggles on this course. My problem has been chopping my long list of ten down. Bubba Watson 12/1 There are never any guarantees with Bubba but his chances this week are as good as ever. He blows hot and cold but he appears to be blowing hot at the moment so it is the right time to side with him here. He come off the back of a win and has a 2nd & 3rd here since the course redesigned. If he is on it, should go very close. Adam Scott 12/1 Scott made my long list last week but I decided to go only with triple figure priced players & missed out. This week, he makes my short list. He has always tended to win in clusters and his current form is irresistable. On top of his win last week, he has two runner up finishes in his previous three events. He also has two top five finishes in this event in the last three years. Put this together & he should be there or thereabouts. JB Holmes 30/1 Should have won here last year but let a five shot lead slip on the final day. Looks ripe for a win with a lowest place of 11th from his four starts this year. Should be able to boom it down the fairways here & is a more than fair price. Louis Oosthuizen 40/1 Think this is a great price for a player ideally suited by the course & bang in form. In four starts this year he has finished 12th, 7th & 1st, winning in Perth last week. It was also the way he won that impressed me. His swing got progressively more relaxed with each round which will be ideal on this course. He finished 6th here last year and I expect him to go even better this year. Danny Willett 70/1 If one player is overpriced here it is Willett. He is now ranked 15 in the world (rightly so) yet is 26th in the betting & that is on a course that is perfect for the long hitting Sheffielder. He is picking his events this year so will be going for the win. He won in Dubai four weeks ago so is in good nick plus he was 12th here a year ago on his debut and I expect a top five finish if he gets a decent start. The other five players that I had in consideration this week were Dustin Johnson 12/1, Henrik Stenson 25/1, Brandt Snedeker 70/1, Andy Sullivan 125/1 & Scott Hend 400/1. Will look at ways to include these players in FRL & Top Ten bets. Posted by Ice_Tiger
FIRST (12/1), SECOND (12/1) & THIRD (70/1) - Think that went pretty well.
Add in Willett placed for FRL & for Top Ten Finish. Frerolling for next three months now!
So close for Willett until that that short putt on the 17th. Managed to lay some off him off for a small profit when Scott shanked it on the 16th, but fairplay to Scott for such a gr8 comeback after those dbl bogeys
Fair play ICE!! brilliant. what a last round, it was so near yet so far. Willett was awesome, if he holes that putt on 17 he wins i think. so I had a Willett place, and I had a reverse forecast from the outset of Rory Mac & Adam Scott... 110/1 so those 3 couldn't have finished in a worse order.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Honda Classic & ISPS Perth) : FIRST (12/1), SECOND (12/1) & THIRD (70/1) - Think that went pretty well. Add in Willett placed for FRL & for Top Ten Finish. Frerolling for next three months now! Posted by Ice_Tiger
WGC - Cadillac The one big event this week, so I treated myself to a bit of extra time to study relevant stats for the players on the PGA Tour. It's difficult to argue against the case that this is now more than ever a bombers course, though there is also a premium on being able to hit fairways and greens, as there is PLENTY of water out there, so maybe somebody like Graeme Mcdowell at 66/1 shouldn't be completely ignored. DJ, Bubba, Rory, Day, Spieth and Fowler all have the strengths and credentials to win this and are rightly at the head of the betting. Then there is Adam Scott, I have to say if there was a rule that said last weeks winner gets to pick the venue for the next week, I'm sure Doral would have been high on Adam Scotts list, he is clearly the man in form and is right up there on all the key stats that are necessary to compete around here. Problem for me is that Adam and I have never got on, he wins when I don't back him and more often than not, he misses cuts when I do back him. He can't miss the cut this week, but it's not easy to come up with back to back wins and at odds of 12/1, Adam I will remain apart. Danny Willett - 80/1, Ok I admit to having Willettitis, but that's not a bad thing, in fact its proved to be a very profitable symptom that is treatable with winning bets. Danny Willett has all the attributes to suit Doral, he is one of the best drivers of the ball on the European Tour, he is bang in form, recently winning in Dubai, could well have won last time in Malaysia if he hadn't have been fighting the flu. Willett made his debut at Doral last year, five over par after the first two days, he found his feet over the weekend to get back to level par and finish tied 12th. Normal service is resumed, at 80/1 Danny Willett is way over priced and even 66/1 6 places is decent value. Justin Rose - 25/1 6 places, I like the fact that whilst virtually every other player has already been filling their playing schedule, Rose has been lightly raced. If he was a racehorse you'd say he was being trained and held back for the big races. He won on this track before the changes, but he is sneaky long and his US Open win proved, he is one of the best tee to green. Justin Rose 25/1 6 places, is the dark horse of the race in my book. JB Holmes - 25/1 6 places, runner up last year and been playing very well this year, with a number of top 10 results. A perfect fit for current form and course form and at twice the price of the market leaders. Brooks Koepka - 40/1 6 places, if you don't have a nervous disposition and like a player who will 'go for it' Brooks Koepka could be your man around here. Tied 17th on his debut last year and that was with 7 shots dropped on just 3 holes. If he can learn from that first year and move more towards controlled aggression, he could well be a factor this week. Chris Wood - 250/1 5 places, 200/1 6 places, Always on the look out for at least one 3 figure priced player a week and this week Chris Wood gets the vote. He has proven in the past that when on his game he is up to the task of competing with anyone, anywhere. Admittedly breaking into the top 6 this week is a tall order, so 18/1 top 10 and 6/1 top 20 maybe the better options. Good Luck All Posted by TheDart
Well I certainly got those two bits right.
Not a penny on Adam Scott, but at odds of 12/1 I honestly didn't even come close to feeling like kicking the cat.
Talking of cats, last week showed for me anyway there are more than two ways to skin a cat.
I think it was clear from my posts last week, that I was well committed to Danny Willett in various markets and am sure Danny Willett is now top of my all time winners list by now.
Last week saw returns for;
FRL - 66/1 share of place Outright 80/1 - full place return at 20/1 Outright 66/1 - full place return at 16.5/1 Top European 18/1 - joint first for a 9/1 winner and a 4.6/1 place Top Ten Finish 11/2 - third place gave full return at 11/2
Willett was the only none major winner up there competing on Sunday and I though it was an excellent weekends viewing.
Surely the bookies will have wised up now and his odds will be halved for future events.
As for Adam Scott, hats off to the guy, two double bogeys over the front 9 and he comes back to win like that.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Honda Classic & ISPS Perth) : Well I certainly got those two bits right. Not a penny on Adam Scott, but at odds of 12/1 I honestly didn't even come close to feeling like kicking the cat. Talking of cats, last week showed for me anyway there are more than two ways to skin a cat. I think it was clear from my posts last week, that I was well committed to Danny Willett in various markets and am sure Danny Willett is now top of my all time winners list by now. Last week saw returns for; FRL - 66/1 share of place Outright 80/1 - full place return at 20/1 Outright 66/1 - full place return at 16.5/1 Top European 18/1 - joint first for a 9/1 winner and a 4.6/1 place Top Ten Finish 11/2 - third place gave full return at 11/2 Willett was the only none major winner up there competing on Sunday and I though it was an excellent weekends viewing. Surely the bookies will have wised up now and his odds will be halved for future events. As for Adam Scott, hats off to the guy, two double bogeys over the front 9 and he comes back to win like that. Good Luck to everyone for the weeks to come. Posted by TheDart
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Honda Classic & ISPS Perth) : Thanks Darty for keeping clear of Adam Scott! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Haha thanks for giving me the credit I deserve here
Actually I was so close to backing Scott as a last minute saver, but in the end I opted for the additional bets on Willet for top 10 and top European.
The top 10 bet on Willet was prompted by your post, the top European my own doing.
I may not have been so gracious at a Scott win if the extra Willett bets hadn't come off, as it was I knew I'd have ended up with roughly the same returns if I'd backed Scott instead if the extra Willett bets.
This event is played at the Black Mountain Club, Hua Hin. The course is an average length Par 72. The course favours the big hitters with plenty of room off the tee and minimal rough off the fairways.
The market is led by Jaidee, Luiten, Aphibarnrat, Pieters, Uihlein, Larrazabal & Levy. All are serious contenders but mostly are players that I prefer at 50/1 in a tougher field rather than shorter priced favourites. However, I will make one exception to this thinking.
Thomas Pieters 25/1
Pieters owes me nothing and if he plays anywhere near his best, he will be close here. He is inconsistent and could be out of the running after nine holes but the course appears to suit his game and I think the price is more than fair.
Mikko Ilonen 50/1
Mikko has four top 25 finishes from five starts this year & should go close in this event with a lower quality field.
Scott Hend 45/1
I like Hend and this is a course where he does well. His last four finishes here have been 28th, 3rd, 7th & 2nd (last year). He is in decent nick and can go one better this year.
Chapchai Nirat 80/1
A decent record on this course & showing decent form on the Asian Tour. Should give a good run at a decent price.
Angelo Que 200/1
Liked the look of him when he finished 13th at Hong Kong last October. A decent run at this price.
I quite like Uihlein & Wattel as well but have skipped them here.
I have backed Hend (40/1), Wattel (50/1), Nirat (66/1) & Que (150/1) for FRL.
Great picks Ice-Tiger and Darty. I managed to stick with Danny Willet this week and had him ew @66/1. My main bet on him was top 10 finish at 11/2.
In the Thailand Classic, I normally like to stick with at least one local so have got K.Aphibarnrat @20/1ew , P. Uihelein @22/1 and i'm going to give Miguel Tabuena @66/1ew another chance.
FRL market i'm going for K.Aphibarnrat @25/1, P,Uihlein @33/1 , P.Larrazabal @25/1 and M.Tabuena @66/1
Looking back at previous years, there appears to be a pattern that players that win here have often done well previously, more so than in many events so that is the angle I am taking here. The course is interesting and seems to favour thinking golfers. It appears that it is a question of picking up your shots on the par fives and playing safe on the other holes and that a score of -10 should be enough to take home the trophy.
The betting is headed by Speith, Stenson, Willett, Oosthuizen, Reed & Thomas. Speith isn't quite right atm, Stenson hasn't won in ages, Willett probably needs a couple of rounds on the course, and I don't think the course suits Oosthuizen or Thomas, meaning there is a bit of value elsewhere.
Patrick Reed 30/1
Reed was runner up here a year ago, losing in a Playoff to Speith. He has five top ten finishes (including two seconds) in his last ten events and is better suited on this course than the players above him in the betting.
Harris English 35/1
English was on my long list for this event due to two top ten finishes here in the last three years. He jumped to my short list after an impressive performance last week, finishing 10th in the WGC event. He is well suited to this course & won an Amateur event here back in the day.
Kevin Streelman 66/1
This is an excellent price for a player who appears to love this course. He won here in 2013 so meets that criteria and is in decent nick with three top twenty finishes from four starts this year.
John Senden 125/1
When you look at course form, Senden jumps off the page at you. He was runner up here in 2007 & 2008 and won here in 2014. Seeing the price, you would assume that he had gone badly downhill in recent times but he finished 10th last time out at the Honda Classic so could be set for a good run here.
Harold Varner III 250/1
I'll admit this is a bit of a punt but so was Bezoudenhuit when he got second at the same price. I like the look of this guy and feel that a top three finish could be just around the corner.
Others that just missed out were Jason Dufner, Ryan Moore, Webb Simpson & Gary Woodland.
It's a bit of a mixed field this week, a couple of world class locals in Aphibarnrat and Jaidee, plenty of other locals and Europeant tour players with attachments to the course that should make use of their local knowledge and then a wide range of Europeans and Asians, some with winning former, some knocking on the door for that first win and as for the rest, well they also have a chance. So.....
Alexander Levy - 28/1, last time out I identified Levy as a player retuning to form with improving results and he duly delivered with a second place at 66/1.
He looked very good in Australia and though he has not played competitively here before, the course should suit his aggressive style.
If Levy is going to continue his improving run of results, there's only one place he can finish after his second last time out and that's the winners circle.
Prom Meesawat - 80/1, this is not only his home country, it is also his home town and his home course.
He's shot 65's in each of the last two events he's played here, and goes into this event with some good recent form.
Prayed Markaseng - 50/1, very similar to Meesawat, as this is his home town and home course.
Markaseng is now 50 years old, but his recent form against the young guys is good and he won here three years ago.
Miguel Tabuena - 66/1, already a winner on the Asian Tour, came very close to his first European tour win last month.
Missed cut last time out in Australia, young enough to not worry about missed cuts, had a couple of weeks to reset and will no doubt fancy his chances of competing this week.
Andrew Dodt - 160/1, last years winner, I remember checking his course form / Asian Tour form during day 4 of this event last year and taking the 40/1 on offer for in running.
Dodt had a previous top 10 here and a runners up finish in Thailand, last year he hardly played a bad hole and afterwards admitted he loves the course and enjoys the climate conditions in Thailand.
For one week only, odds of 160/1 look like a worthwhile punt.
Alternative value bets, could be 6/1 top 20, maybe 14/1 top 20 or 14/1 3 places top Australian.
Johan Edfors - 250/1, finally a small speculative punt on 'local' Johan Edfors.
Edfors is attached to Black Mountain and won an event on the Asian Tour here in 2010 and was 38th here last year.
Having lost his European tour card, he's in golfing limbo at the moment, picking up the odd spot at a European tour and Asian Tour event and playing on the Challenge Tour.
He managed a win as recently as October 2014 in China on the European Challenge Tour and has some not too shabby results when he does play on the European Tour.
Inconsistency seems to be the problem which no doubt comes with his aggressive style of play, something that he has proven should not be a problem around here.
Plenty of recent form and course form to go on here, though I believe they have changed the grass on the greens, if or how much this will affect some players I'm really not sure.
I starting getting into the stats last week and this has helped increase my confidence on my first three picks this week.
Harris English - 33/1 (6 places), English was third three events back and 10th at the WGC last week , his all round game looks to be coming together very nicely and on a course like this a good all round game is necessary.
Decent course form as well, means Harris English is expected to have a good week.
Webb Simpson - 45/1 (5 places), 40/1 (6 places), Webb Simpsons stats suggests his game is in seriously good shape in 2016.
The one weakness and concern would be his putting, but for his last two events he has shown a positive strokes gained putting against the field, so this would suggest he has found something that works with the short putter.
Good course form box also ticked, I like Simpsons chances this week.
Sean O'Hair - 80/1 (5 places), 66/1 (6 places), lost his game for a couple of years, more than likely started with a loss of form on the green which began to affect the rest of his game.
He was 14th last time out at the Honda Classic and lost in a play off last year, so another player that looks ready to strike.
Patton Kizzire - 80/1 (6 places), at the beginning of the year, Kizzire went on me short list for a first win on Tour before the Masters.
I like what I've seen of Kizzire, some weeks he's at a bit of a disadvantage as he's playing courses for the first time, but he know this venue very well, so the value is there.
Danny Willett - 22/1, not so much a pick this week, more of a confession.
No course form, coming off a great week, but one that must have been mentally and physically tiring, 22/1 is no value.
But I'm having a saver on Willett as I won't be able to stop myself from routing for him.
guna be an expensive week - with about 11 players to cover. just a question how do you bet? Do you do every golfer e/w regardless of price? Posted by mrdavies
Good question Mr. Davis.
I think with golf betting you have to have a portfolio for each event, its very rare for me anyway, where you can pick just one or two players.
Its also very easy to back 'half the field' and minimize your opportunities of a big win.
I tend to rank my picks and will have my potential big winners for the week, followed by a player or two that would give me a decent profit and then a 'saver' or two, who would get my money back.
I will also weight my bets according to odds.
With my strategy of normally swerving the market leaders, I tend to need one place return a week to make a profit.
In recent works that's paid off very nicely as my main picks have been the ones that have done the business.
In the last 5 weeks, I have managed to find full place returns at 100/1, 90/1, 66/1 and 66/1 on 'main bets'.
80/1 winners don't come around so often.
If all else fails or looks like failing, the in-running market is there to save us, OR increase the losses.
No guarantees in this game, golf betting is a minefield, there are very fine lines between profit and loss, and you can look a mug for months on end if you are not careful.
It should be fun first, though of course the sniff of a big win is what makes it fun :-)
Comments
Danny Willett the main hope, though a good second round from Brooks Koepka would improve our chances.
Then there is Chris Wood, level par tied 28th, ready to make a move up the leaderboard. Maybe.
great weekend of golf though..
Very well done, long may the run good continue.
Not a penny on Adam Scott, but at odds of 12/1 I honestly didn't even come close to feeling like kicking the cat.
Talking of cats, last week showed for me anyway there are more than two ways to skin a cat.
I think it was clear from my posts last week, that I was well committed to Danny Willett in various markets and am sure Danny Willett is now top of my all time winners list by now.
Last week saw returns for;
FRL - 66/1 share of place
Outright 80/1 - full place return at 20/1
Outright 66/1 - full place return at 16.5/1
Top European 18/1 - joint first for a 9/1 winner and a 4.6/1 place
Top Ten Finish 11/2 - third place gave full return at 11/2
Willett was the only none major winner up there competing on Sunday and I though it was an excellent weekends viewing.
Surely the bookies will have wised up now and his odds will be halved for future events.
As for Adam Scott, hats off to the guy, two double bogeys over the front 9 and he comes back to win like that.
Good Luck to everyone for the weeks to come.
True Thailand Classic
It's a bit of a mixed field this week, a couple of world class locals in Aphibarnrat and Jaidee, plenty of other locals and Europeant tour players with attachments to the course that should make use of their local knowledge and then a wide range of Europeans and Asians, some with winning former, some knocking on the door for that first win and as for the rest, well they also have a chance. So.....
Alexander Levy - 28/1, last time out I identified Levy as a player retuning to form with improving results and he duly delivered with a second place at 66/1.
He looked very good in Australia and though he has not played competitively here before, the course should suit his aggressive style.
If Levy is going to continue his improving run of results, there's only one place he can finish after his second last time out and that's the winners circle.
Prom Meesawat - 80/1, this is not only his home country, it is also his home town and his home course.
He's shot 65's in each of the last two events he's played here, and goes into this event with some good recent form.
Prayed Markaseng - 50/1, very similar to Meesawat, as this is his home town and home course.
Markaseng is now 50 years old, but his recent form against the young guys is good and he won here three years ago.
Miguel Tabuena - 66/1, already a winner on the Asian Tour, came very close to his first European tour win last month.
Missed cut last time out in Australia, young enough to not worry about missed cuts, had a couple of weeks to reset and will no doubt fancy his chances of competing this week.
Andrew Dodt - 160/1, last years winner, I remember checking his course form / Asian Tour form during day 4 of this event last year and taking the 40/1 on offer for in running.
Dodt had a previous top 10 here and a runners up finish in Thailand, last year he hardly played a bad hole and afterwards admitted he loves the course and enjoys the climate conditions in Thailand.
For one week only, odds of 160/1 look like a worthwhile punt.
Alternative value bets, could be 6/1 top 20, maybe 14/1 top 20 or 14/1 3 places top Australian.
Johan Edfors - 250/1, finally a small speculative punt on 'local' Johan Edfors.
Edfors is attached to Black Mountain and won an event on the Asian Tour here in 2010 and was 38th here last year.
Having lost his European tour card, he's in golfing limbo at the moment, picking up the odd spot at a European tour and Asian Tour event and playing on the Challenge Tour.
He managed a win as recently as October 2014 in China on the European Challenge Tour and has some not too shabby results when he does play on the European Tour.
Inconsistency seems to be the problem which no doubt comes with his aggressive style of play, something that he has proven should not be a problem around here.
I've seen worse 250/1 shots.
Good Luck All
Plenty of recent form and course form to go on here, though I believe they have changed the grass on the greens, if or how much this will affect some players I'm really not sure.
I starting getting into the stats last week and this has helped increase my confidence on my first three picks this week.
Harris English - 33/1 (6 places), English was third three events back and 10th at the WGC last week , his all round game looks to be coming together very nicely and on a course like this a good all round game is necessary.
Decent course form as well, means Harris English is expected to have a good week.
Webb Simpson - 45/1 (5 places), 40/1 (6 places), Webb Simpsons stats suggests his game is in seriously good shape in 2016.
The one weakness and concern would be his putting, but for his last two events he has shown a positive strokes gained putting against the field, so this would suggest he has found something that works with the short putter.
Good course form box also ticked, I like Simpsons chances this week.
Sean O'Hair - 80/1 (5 places), 66/1 (6 places), lost his game for a couple of years, more than likely started with a loss of form on the green which began to affect the rest of his game.
Historical Strokes Gained Putting stats read:
2013 - 150th
2014 - 80th
2015 - 60th
2016 - 9th!!!
He was 14th last time out at the Honda Classic and lost in a play off last year, so another player that looks ready to strike.
Patton Kizzire - 80/1 (6 places), at the beginning of the year, Kizzire went on me short list for a first win on Tour before the Masters.
I like what I've seen of Kizzire, some weeks he's at a bit of a disadvantage as he's playing courses for the first time, but he know this venue very well, so the value is there.
Danny Willett - 22/1, not so much a pick this week, more of a confession.
No course form, coming off a great week, but one that must have been mentally and physically tiring, 22/1 is no value.
But I'm having a saver on Willett as I won't be able to stop myself from routing for him.
I think with golf betting you have to have a portfolio for each event, its very rare for me anyway, where you can pick just one or two players.
Its also very easy to back 'half the field' and minimize your opportunities of a big win.
I tend to rank my picks and will have my potential big winners for the week, followed by a player or two that would give me a decent profit and then a 'saver' or two, who would get my money back.
I will also weight my bets according to odds.
With my strategy of normally swerving the market leaders, I tend to need one place return a week to make a profit.
In recent works that's paid off very nicely as my main picks have been the ones that have done the business.
In the last 5 weeks, I have managed to find full place returns at 100/1, 90/1, 66/1 and 66/1 on 'main bets'.
80/1 winners don't come around so often.
If all else fails or looks like failing, the in-running market is there to save us, OR increase the losses.
No guarantees in this game, golf betting is a minefield, there are very fine lines between profit and loss, and you can look a mug for months on end if you are not careful.
It should be fun first, though of course the sniff of a big win is what makes it fun :-)
Good Luck