its slightly different for me, my golf betting money / returns is all bundled in with my poker bankroll. MayBE I should open a new account somewhere just for a golf fund? anything I win could be used on cash poker and any bets I place comes out of my poker funds too.
So when you say portfolio how do you mean? Have you had a kitty for years which you bet out of similar to a poker bankroll but just for golf betting? />
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand) : Good question Mr. Davis. I think with golf betting you have to have a portfolio for each event, its very rare for me anyway, where you can pick just one or two players. Its also very easy to back 'half the field' and minimize your opportunities of a big win. I tend to rank my picks and will have my potential big winners for the week, followed by a player or two that would give me a decent profit and then a 'saver' or two, who would get my money back. I will also weight my bets according to odds. With my strategy of normally swerving the market leaders, I tend to need one place return a week to make a profit. In recent works that's paid off very nicely as my main picks have been the ones that have done the business. In the last 5 weeks, I have managed to find full place returns at 100/1, 90/1, 66/1 and 66/1 on 'main bets'. 80/1 winners don't come around so often. If all else fails or looks like failing, the in-running market is there to save us, OR increase the losses. No guarantees in this game, golf betting is a minefield, there are very fine lines between profit and loss, and you can look a mug for months on end if you are not careful. It should be fun first, though of course the sniff of a big win is what makes it fun :-) Good Luck Posted by TheDart
its slightly different for me, my golf betting money / returns is all bundled in with my poker bankroll. MayBE I should open a new account somewhere just for a golf fund? anything I win could be used on cash poker and any bets I place comes out of my poker funds too. So when you say portfolio how do you mean? Have you had a kitty for years which you bet out of similar to a poker bankroll but just for golf betting? /> In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand) : Posted by mrdavies
Nope, when I refer portfolio I mean my tactics for each golf tournament are I pick a portfolio or 'stable' of golfers.
In a field of 156, I like to spread the love around a little.
I always go with a couple of main bets, but add a few others as the back up plan.
I used to keep a record of profit and losses, but have let that slip, like you my 'entertainment ' funds are lumped together and they are invested mainly in golf and poker.
I do use multiple betting accounts for golf betting,you can pick up some bonus value, as the there can be a large spread across the bookmakers for odds on the same player and extra places paid on the place returns.
There is some discipline there though, as I have a wife who knows when I'm winning or losing!
Great picks Ice-Tiger and Darty. I managed to stick with Danny Willet this week and had him ew @66/1. My main bet on him was top 10 finish at 11/2. In the Thailand Classic, I normally like to stick with at least one local so have got K.Aphibarnrat @20/1ew , P. Uihelein @22/1 and i'm going to give Miguel Tabuena @66/1ew another chance. FRL market i'm going for K.Aphibarnrat @25/1, P,Uihlein @33/1 , P.Larrazabal @25/1 and M.Tabuena @66/1 Good Luck all, Dave. Posted by Any2Suited
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand) : Nope, when I refer portfolio I mean my tactics for each golf tournament are I pick a portfolio or 'stable' of golfers. In a field of 156, I like to spread the love around a little. I always go with a couple of main bets, but add a few others as the back up plan. I used to keep a record of profit and losses, but have let that slip, like you my 'entertainment ' funds are lumped together and they are invested mainly in golf and poker. I do use multiple betting accounts for golf betting,you can pick up some bonus value, as the there can be a large spread across the bookmakers for odds on the same player and extra places paid on the place returns. There is some discipline there though, as I have a wife who knows when I'm winning or losing! Posted by TheDart
Wasn't originally having a bet in America this week but...Money obviously burning a hole in my pocket to be spent from this morning! Have had an in play bet on B.Haas @40/1ew and L.Oosthuizen@33/1ew (5places).I missed a price on H.English @20/1 so have left him out now 12/1. Good Luck all.
Another good day for Scott Hend, who leads by two from Uihlein with Thomas Pieters a further one back after a 66 today. Could be a profitable day tomorrow.
True Thailand Classic This event is played at the Black Mountain Club, Hua Hin. The course is an average length Par 72. The course favours the big hitters with plenty of room off the tee and minimal rough off the fairways. The market is led by Jaidee, Luiten, Aphibarnrat, Pieters, Uihlein, Larrazabal & Levy. All are serious contenders but mostly are players that I prefer at 50/1 in a tougher field rather than shorter priced favourites. However, I will make one exception to this thinking. Thomas Pieters 25/1 Pieters owes me nothing and if he plays anywhere near his best, he will be close here. He is inconsistent and could be out of the running after nine holes but the course appears to suit his game and I think the price is more than fair. Mikko Ilonen 50/1 Mikko has four top 25 finishes from five starts this year & should go close in this event with a lower quality field. Scott Hend 45/1 I like Hend and this is a course where he does well. His last four finishes here have been 28th, 3rd, 7th & 2nd (last year). He is in decent nick and can go one better this year. Chapchai Nirat 80/1 A decent record on this course & showing decent form on the Asian Tour. Should give a good run at a decent price. Angelo Que 200/1 Liked the look of him when he finished 13th at Hong Kong last October. A decent run at this price. I quite like Uihlein & Wattel as well but have skipped them here. I have backed Hend (40/1), Wattel (50/1), Nirat (66/1) & Que (150/1) for FRL. Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
True Thailand Classic (Result)
Another brilliant week with a 45/1 WINNER with Scott Hend and a 25/1 third place with Thomas Pieters.
Thomas Pieters 25/1 -15 Tied 3rd
Scott Hend 45/1 -18 WINNER
Chapchai Nirat 80/1 +4 Tied 67th
Angelo Que 200/1 -5 Tied 40th
Hope you were on this one. That is four winners (8/1, 18/1, 14/1, 45/1) & five runners ups (55/1, 40/1, 35/1, 22/1, 12/1) and other places (100/1, 70/1, 28/1, 70/1, 25/1) in the last seven weeks.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand) : True Thailand Classic (Result) Another brilliant week with a 45/1 WINNER with Scott Hend and a 25/1 third place with Thomas Pieters. Thomas Pieters 25/1 -15 Tied 3rd Scott Hend 45/1 -18 WINNER Chapchai Nirat 80/1 +4 Tied 67th Angelo Que 200/1 -5 Tied 40th Hope you were on this one. That is four winners (8/1, 18/1, 14/1, 45/1) & five runners ups (55/1, 40/1, 35/1, 22/1, 12/1) and other places (100/1, 70/1, 28/1, 70/1, 25/1) in the last seven weeks. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Slipping a bit Ice, only first and third this week, I sense a bit of complacency creeping in.
Don't rest on your laurels :-)
Seriously, very well done again, keep up the good work.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand) : True Thailand Classic (Result) Another brilliant week with a 45/1 WINNER with Scott Hend and a 25/1 third place with Thomas Pieters. Thomas Pieters 25/1 -15 Tied 3rd Scott Hend 45/1 -18 WINNER Chapchai Nirat 80/1 +4 Tied 67th Angelo Que 200/1 -5 Tied 40th Hope you were on this one. That is four winners (8/1, 18/1, 14/1, 45/1) & five runners ups (55/1, 40/1, 35/1, 22/1, 12/1) and other places (100/1, 70/1, 28/1, 70/1, 25/1) in the last seven weeks. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Slipping a bit Ice, only first and third this week, I sense a bit of complacency creeping in.
Don't rest on your laurels :-)
Seriously, very well done again, keep up the good work.
Great tips again Ice tiger.At least Uihlein got a place to go with FRL, for very good week for me.Now I hope Bill Haas can finish the job for me in America @40/1 in play bet.
Darty, did you have Graeham Delaet in any of your bets? As I know you often back him and apart from Spieth he looks the main danger.
Great tips again Ice tiger.At least Uihlein got a place to go with FRL, for very good week for me.Now I hope Bill Haas can finish the job for me in America @40/1 in play bet. Darty, did you have Graeham Delaet in any of your bets? As I know you often back him and apart from Spieth he looks the main danger. Posted by Any2Suited
Yes noticed you slipped in a 14/1 winner on the horses as well, so very good weekend for you.
I've actually got a bit of a sweat on for a Delaet win tonight.
with my picks all looking a bit sick I did a couple of in running doubles
Hend 10/3 and Delaet 16/1
Hend 10/3 and Moore 16/1
So with you on Haas and tiger on Reid hopefully one of us can finish the weekend with a win
For me The Delaet win would turn my worst week of the year into my best week.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand) : Yes noticed you slipped in a 14/1 winner on the horses as well, so very good weekend for you. I've actually got a bit of a sweat on for a Delaet win tonight. with my picks all looking a bit sick I did a couple of in running doubles Hend 10/3 and Delaet 16/1 Hend 10/3 and Moore 16/1 So with you on Haas and tiger on Reid hopefully one of us can finish the weekend with a win For me The Delaet win would turn my worst week of the year into my best week. Thin lines ;-) Posted by TheDart
Good Luck! I'm pleased somebody who has backed him like me for a few years with many near misses at high odds may be on when he finally takes down a tourney. I nearly backed him in running with Haas but went for Oosthuizen instead,don't mind so much a 10/1 place if Delaet wins...but Reed not so sure.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand) : Good Luck! I'm pleased somebody who has backed him like me for a few years with many near misses at high odds may be on when he finally takes down a tourney. I nearly backed him in running with Haas but went for Oosthuizen instead,don't mind so much a 10/1 place if Delaet wins...but Reed not so sure. Posted by Any2Suited
Well watching Delaet on those greens was some of the most painful golf I've witnessed in a long time.
Unlucky on losing in the playoff, but still well done on a 10/1 winner
At a course length of less than 7,000 yards, with just 3 par 5/s, its easy to jump to the conclusion that long hitters don't have any advantage.
For sure a layout of less than 7000 yards makes it a competitive course for everyone, but last years winner Lahiri is one of the longest hitters in the game and on further inspection, it would appear to succeed on this course, players rely very heavily on their combined score over the pars 5's and then the target is to play the remaining 60 holes in level par.
So take Lahiri last year, he was minus 8 on the par 5's, +1 for the other 60 holes played, runner up SSP, 6 under on the par 5's, 1 under on the remaining 60 holes, 3rd place Lagergran 6 under on the par 5's, level on the remaining 60 holes.
So we are looking for players who can score on the par 5's, but not an out and out bomber as we need players who can keep it in play on this tight tricky course.
Plenty of course form to be found and it always help if you are on someone who has shown they can perform in the conditions.
Lahri is a strong favorite and I like the chances of Luiten, but so do the bookies, so I'm liking Skybets market of without Lahiri and Luiten, paying 5 places.
David Lipsky 40/1, Improving each week, he has a top 20 around here on the Asian Tour, so knows the layout.
Big fish on the Asian Tour, should be full of confidence this week.
Ben Evans - 90/1 outright, 66/1 without favs, went into the 'Hero Open 2016' notebook following his performance at this event last year.
Evans played the par 5's in 9 under, the remaining 60 holes in plus 7, which was still good enough for a 12th place finish and gave Evans his first pay cheque on the European Tour.
He's been playing well in 2016, comfortably making the cut in higher quality fields on courses he hadn't played before.
We will ignore his missed cut in Thailand last week and trust he put the spare time to good use to prepare for an event that Evans himself must be thinking presents one his best opportunities of the year.
Jeev Mikah Singh - 100/1, Last weeks 7th place finish in Thailand was his best finish on tour since winning the Scottish Open in July 2012.
He's really struggled with injury for 2 years plus, but has been quietly (until last week), getting back to form and consistency.
Perhaps significantly for this week, his best result in 2015 when struggling with injury was a tied 24th position here, so a fit and confident Jeev Mikah Singh playing in his National Open, looks worth a punt at 100/1 without the favorites.
Thanyakon Khrongpha - 100/1 outright, somebody at Skybet must be on a similar wavelength to me here, as they only go 50/1 without the favourites.
Khun Thanyakon, was the guy playing with Piya Swangarunporn last week when Piya, shot the round his life to finish second.
It was noticeable just how much support he gave and the enjoyment Thanyakon got out of seeing his playing partner perform so well.
Thanyakorn didn't do so badly himself finishing 19th and this followed up a 15th place in Malaysia the previous week.
Consider also that he finished 17th here last year, playing the par 5's in 9 under, a buyount player with course knowledge who can draw on his experience of a few days ago, could be an interesting prospect at 100/1.
With an early tee time, I certainly feel the 80/1 for FRL is worth a dabble.
Others on the radar were or maybe still are...Siddikur Rahman 80/1, Rashid Khan 100/1, Chariagh Kumar 100/1 and Mithun Perera 150/1, all with stacks of good course form and in the case of Rahman and Khan, have won wround here.
This longstanding event on the calendar takes place at Bay Hill Country Club where it has been played for over 30 years. That should mean that we have a good idea what is required but there have been several course adjustments in recent years that need to be built into the equation. The net effect showed last year in that it took a score of -19 to win whereas previously -15 had usually been enough.
Rory McIlroy is favourite with Scott, Stenson, Day, Rose & Matsuyama tucked in behind. I really don't want to go too short here. Scott is reasonable at 8/1 but the other market leaders all have questions about them.
Matt Every has won this event for the last two years so long shots can beat the favourites although there is little to suggest that he will get the hat trick. Hopefully, we can find a few who will give us a good run at a decent price.
Paul Casey 50/1 A course that should suit him and he has been coming back to form recently. Should be good value at this price.
William McGirt 80/1 Has been operating below the radar but is starting to get some attention. At the back end of 2015, he picked up an 8th & a 2nd and he has four top 25 finishes (13th, 24th, 20th, 8th) from six starts.
Scott Brown 100/1 Here is a player who is just coming into form. 39th, 10th & 7th in his last three events, Brown could give a great run at a cracking price.
I notice McGirt is first out so might be worth a FRL bet as well. Quite like Smylie Kaufman as well.
The New Dehli course should favour GIR players. It is essential not to lose many shots on the tougher holes here where shots can be gained on the par fives by accuracy rather than bombing. Pretty much the opposite of last week's event in Thailand.
The favourites are Lahiri, Luiten, Fraser Uihlein, Rumford & Fleetwood.
Think again we are looking for value at decent prices.
Siddikur Rahman 70/1 When you look at course form, one name jumps out at you. Rahman won this event in 2013 but he also has four second places and ten Top Five finishes from 14 appearances on the course. Looks great value on a course where previous experience counts for a lot.
Chapchai Nirat 90/1 Went with him last week but lacked the power to contend. This course suits him better (12th last year) so will give him another chance at a decent price.
Just two this week unless I find another tomorrow.
Comments
So when you say portfolio how do you mean? Have you had a kitty for years which you bet out of similar to a poker bankroll but just for golf betting? />
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand):
In a field of 156, I like to spread the love around a little.
I always go with a couple of main bets, but add a few others as the back up plan.
I used to keep a record of profit and losses, but have let that slip, like you my 'entertainment ' funds are lumped together and they are invested mainly in golf and poker.
I do use multiple betting accounts for golf betting,you can pick up some bonus value, as the there can be a large spread across the bookmakers for odds on the same player and extra places paid on the place returns.
There is some discipline there though, as I have a wife who knows when I'm winning or losing!
Very well done Dave Any2Suited.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand):
Go back to basics and do what you know best.
Back Danny Willett!!!
Top up on Danny Willett at 18/1 outright
Plus, end of round 2 leader - Danny Willet 20/1
Another good day for Scott Hend, who leads by two from Uihlein with Thomas Pieters a further one back after a 66 today. Could be a profitable day tomorrow.
Thomas Pieters 25/1 -11 Tied 3rd
Scott Hend 45/1 -14 1st
Chapchai Nirat 80/1 -2 Tied 52nd
Angelo Que 200/1 -4 Tied 34th
Another brilliant week with a 45/1 WINNER with Scott Hend and a 25/1 third place with Thomas Pieters.
Thomas Pieters 25/1 -15 Tied 3rd
Scott Hend 45/1 -18 WINNER
Chapchai Nirat 80/1 +4 Tied 67th
Angelo Que 200/1 -5 Tied 40th
Hope you were on this one. That is four winners (8/1, 18/1, 14/1, 45/1) & five runners ups (55/1, 40/1, 35/1, 22/1, 12/1) and other places (100/1, 70/1, 28/1, 70/1, 25/1) in the last seven weeks.
Unlucky on losing in the playoff, but still well done on a 10/1 winner
At a course length of less than 7,000 yards, with just 3 par 5/s, its easy to jump to the conclusion that long hitters don't have any advantage.
For sure a layout of less than 7000 yards makes it a competitive course for everyone, but last years winner Lahiri is one of the longest hitters in the game and on further inspection, it would appear to succeed on this course, players rely very heavily on their combined score over the pars 5's and then the target is to play the remaining 60 holes in level par.
So take Lahiri last year, he was minus 8 on the par 5's, +1 for the other 60 holes played, runner up SSP, 6 under on the par 5's, 1 under on the remaining 60 holes, 3rd place Lagergran 6 under on the par 5's, level on the remaining 60 holes.
So we are looking for players who can score on the par 5's, but not an out and out bomber as we need players who can keep it in play on this tight tricky course.
Plenty of course form to be found and it always help if you are on someone who has shown they can perform in the conditions.
Lahri is a strong favorite and I like the chances of Luiten, but so do the bookies, so I'm liking Skybets market of without Lahiri and Luiten, paying 5 places.
David Lipsky 40/1, Improving each week, he has a top 20 around here on the Asian Tour, so knows the layout.
Big fish on the Asian Tour, should be full of confidence this week.
Ben Evans - 90/1 outright, 66/1 without favs, went into the 'Hero Open 2016' notebook following his performance at this event last year.
Evans played the par 5's in 9 under, the remaining 60 holes in plus 7, which was still good enough for a 12th place finish and gave Evans his first pay cheque on the European Tour.
He's been playing well in 2016, comfortably making the cut in higher quality fields on courses he hadn't played before.
We will ignore his missed cut in Thailand last week and trust he put the spare time to good use to prepare for an event that Evans himself must be thinking presents one his best opportunities of the year.
Jeev Mikah Singh - 100/1, Last weeks 7th place finish in Thailand was his best finish on tour since winning the Scottish Open in July 2012.
He's really struggled with injury for 2 years plus, but has been quietly (until last week), getting back to form and consistency.
Perhaps significantly for this week, his best result in 2015 when struggling with injury was a tied 24th position here, so a fit and confident Jeev Mikah Singh playing in his National Open, looks worth a punt at 100/1 without the favorites.
Thanyakon Khrongpha - 100/1 outright, somebody at Skybet must be on a similar wavelength to me here, as they only go 50/1 without the favourites.
Khun Thanyakon, was the guy playing with Piya Swangarunporn last week when Piya, shot the round his life to finish second.
It was noticeable just how much support he gave and the enjoyment Thanyakon got out of seeing his playing partner perform so well.
Thanyakorn didn't do so badly himself finishing 19th and this followed up a 15th place in Malaysia the previous week.
Consider also that he finished 17th here last year, playing the par 5's in 9 under, a buyount player with course knowledge who can draw on his experience of a few days ago, could be an interesting prospect at 100/1.
With an early tee time, I certainly feel the 80/1 for FRL is worth a dabble.
Others on the radar were or maybe still are...Siddikur Rahman 80/1, Rashid Khan 100/1, Chariagh Kumar 100/1 and Mithun Perera 150/1, all with stacks of good course form and in the case of Rahman and Khan, have won wround here.