It is the 64th staging of this tournament at Torrey Pines, California. The event is played over the North & South courses with all players playing once on the easier North Course so if going for a first round leader, go for a player who starts on the North Course.
The South Course is the longest on the PGA Tour so driving length is a great advantage. Course form is an advantage here with five of the last ten winners having a top ten finish in one of their previous two appearances. No debutant has won since the tournament moved here in 1968.
It is quite a strong field with Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose all competing.
Note that the number of places varies from five up to seven so choose your bookie carefully.
Jason Day 7/1
It is hard to look past the favourite as the most likely winner. He won this event in 2015 after finishing 2nd in 2014 & 9th in 2013. He finished 2015 by winning four of his last six tournaments. He has had a four month break but still finished 10th in the Tournament of Champions courtesy of a final round 65.
Brandt Snedeker 18/1
Snedeker is bang in form with a 3rd at the Tournament of Champions and a 2nd at the Sony Open. He won here in 2012 and has six Top Ten finishes here including four Top Three finishes.
Jamie Lovemark 70/1
Cant desert him after his place last week. Still really good value at 70/1.
Smylie Kaufman 100/1
Picked up his maiden PGA Tour event at the Shriners in October and is looking good again. Should give us a good run for our money
Ryan Ruffels 500/1
This is a bit of a punt but the 17 year old Aussie has been making a few waves. Have had good runs with long shots recently so why not?
Anyone that follows the golf knows that Rafa Cabrera-Bello just can't be trusted to keep it together on the final day. This week on paper at least he looks to have probably the best credentials to win this, but in a field where you can make strong cases for a dozen or so others, past painful experiences mean Mr. Bello doesn't make my final cut for an outright bet. I will however chance my arm at 33/1 for first round Leader.
So on to the players that did make the final cut....
Thomas Pieters 20/1, very impressive last week, on that basis he seems to be ready to add to his two wins from last season. Course will suit and should be able to handle predicted windy conditions.
Eddie Pepperill 66/1, first player in the portfolio this week. he ticks so many of the right boxes, this could be the week for his first win on tour. As a backup 12/1 top Englishman looks decent.
Richie Ramsay 80/1, has dark horse credentials, played well under the radar last week, no real course form here but this is the first time he comes here in some kind of current form the conditions and set up should play to his strengths.
Peter Hanson 40/1, after missing the places by one shot at 150/1 last week, I see no reason to give up on him this week in a weaker field. 18/1 top continental also looks interesting to me.
Kristoffer Broberg 66/1, eye catching tie for low round of the day last Sunday, he's always faired marginally better at Qatar in the Desert Swing. Has form in the wind, looks decent value for someone who won the second to last event of the 2015 season.
Finally, small ew on Matthew Baldwin 200/1 outright, but double the stake at 150/1 for first round leader, playing in first group of the day.
Brandt Snedeker - 18/1, Sticking with in form Sneds 18/1. He also has very strong course form to match, with a win and two runners up finishes here.
Then spreading the love a little on a few players further down the field.
Graham Delaet 50/1, never really got going last week, but he's gone on record as saying this is one of his favourite events. He tends to be a bit of a horses for courses player and was 2nd and 9th in last two appearances here.
JB Holmes 50/1, lost in playoff last year. This week is ideal for JB so hopeful of another good performance.
Hunter Mahan 80/1, tentative pick here. Another player with decent course form and a player who has declared his liking for these courses and thus event. First time out this year, so you are never quite sure what you are going to get.
Shane Lowry 100/1, hooked me on Lowry with his generous 100/1 as much as anything else, though don't under estimate he 7th place last year. He blew the cobwebs away at the Eurasia cup two weeks ago and could well be in for a good week at a big price.
I seem to cross over the 'experts' picks this week, so here's hoping. In Qatar it's Coatzee 33/1 Cabrera-Bella 40/1 and Pepperell 66/1 all ew. Also on Bell-End 40/1 for FRL.
In the USA I'm on JB Holmes 50/1 Leishman 55/1 both ew, and Day win only 13/2
Cross doubled Coatzee/Bella/Pepperell with Holmes and Leishman
Qatar Masters This event is played at the Doha Golf Club and the form from previous years gives us a pretty clear identikit picture of our likely winner. The course favours good driving distance but less so driving accuracy as the rough is short and not to be feared much. GIR and putting accuracy are the other key attributes here. It is also noticeable that previous winners here are players that perform well on links courses so looking at links winners could be useful. The wind can be a big factor here but the weather reports are inconclusive as to when the wind will hit but it could easily rule out half the field if it hits at the wrong time. It usually takes a score between -14 & -20 to win here so birdies on the par five holes is important. Also this tournament is played Wednesday - Saturday so don't forget to get on early. Branden Grace & Sergio Garcia lead the betting followed by Pieters, Oosterhuizen & Fitzpatrick. I think the bookies appear to have the odds about right so I am betting smaller this week and have covered more players. Branden Grace 8/1 Grace is a worthy favourite. He won here last year with a total of -19. He meets the profile to do well on this course and is in form, finishing in the Top Eight in all of his last five tournaments including Tied 5th last week at Abu Dhabi. Sergio Garcia 9/1 Garcia won here two years ago so is proven over the course. It is his first event of the year so form is uncertain but when he is hot, he is hot & could easily hit six birdies on the trot to boost his chances. Think the price is about fair. Thomas Pieters 20/1 I was hoping for a better price but the combination of last week's second place and course that is ideal for him, means the bookies are taking no chances. He belts his drives a long way and shouldn't get in too much trouble with wayward drives, meaning he should be chasing birdies on all the par five holes. He is also more than capable around the green & is usually a top putter. Rafa Cabrera Bello 40/1 Think 40/1 is great value for another player ideally suited by this course. He has two third place finishes in this event and looked good last week in his first event of the year, finishing 14th. He should go closer this week. Trevor Fisher Jnr 90/1 He has performed well this season but is still under the radar so 90/1 is great value. In his three tournaments this year, he has finished Tied 8th, Tied 13th & Tied 16th. Bryson De Chambeau 80/1 Showed his potential last week, leading after Round One. Will have learned from that and will last longer this time. 80/1 is about right but I will stand by my man. I think there are quite a few others who should do well and were on my long list including Chris Wood, Alejandro Canizares, Thomas Bjorn, Mikko Ilonen, Eddie Pepperell, Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Warren, Brett Rumford & Michael Hoey. There will be a high luck factor but hopefully with six players, we get some that get best of the conditions. Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
I suppose that went as well as it could have - picking up first at 8/1 and second at 40/1. I also picked up a part place on RCB as first round leader as a bonus. If only I had just gone for the forecast as well.
A decent quality field with Rory McIlroy a strong 5/2 favourite with only Stenson at 10/1 below 20/1. Rory is a justifiable favourite and has all the credentials to win it. I really cannot go at 5/2 when it just takes one form player to beat him as Rickie Fowler did two weeks ago. So I am really looking for a few players to take him on and give us a good chance of another decent price winner.
We know what is required on this course as we have plenty of data from previous years. This course favours big drivers, GIR and all round & putting accuracy. Driving Accuracy & Scrambling appear to be far less important.
Thorbjorn Olesen 40/1
Was very impressed with Olesen last week and with a bit more luck with his putts, he could have been the winner. He was third here three years ago & 5th two years ago so likes the course. His GIR is good & his driving decent enough that he could be the one this week if he can get his putts to drop.
Rafa Carera Bello 35/1
Won here in 2012 and was second last week so could be his opportunity. Has great GIR figures. Questions about his bottle when close but faired well last week under pressure.
Thomas Pieters 35/1
The arguments for Pieters are good on this course despite struggling last week. He is ideally suited here & was second two weeks ago. Decent value.
Stephen Gallacher 70/1
There are big arguments both for and against here but at 70/1, I have to be in. Gallacher won here in 2013 & 2014, was second in 2012 & third last year. He just loves this course. Otherwise there is little to support him but I just love his course form too much at this price.
Alex Noten 75/1
Runner up here a year ago, Noren is starting to show the form that he threatened a year ago and could break through on a course that he knows and loves.
I will look at a couple of these players as FRL when the draw is announced but I will be looking for a player with an early start on Day One assuming the weather forecast stays as currently forecast.
Farners Insurance Open It is the 64th staging of this tournament at Torrey Pines, California. The event is played over the North & South courses with all players playing once on the easier North Course so if going for a first round leader, go for a player who starts on the North Course. The South Course is the longest on the PGA Tour so driving length is a great advantage. Course form is an advantage here with five of the last ten winners having a top ten finish in one of their previous two appearances. No debutant has won since the tournament moved here in 1968. It is quite a strong field with Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose all competing. Note that the number of places varies from five up to seven so choose your bookie carefully. Jason Day 7/1 It is hard to look past the favourite as the most likely winner. He won this event in 2015 after finishing 2nd in 2014 & 9th in 2013. He finished 2015 by winning four of his last six tournaments. He has had a four month break but still finished 10th in the Tournament of Champions courtesy of a final round 65. Brandt Snedeker 18/1 Snedeker is bang in form with a 3rd at the Tournament of Champions and a 2nd at the Sony Open. He won here in 2012 and has six Top Ten finishes here including four Top Three finishes. Jamie Lovemark 70/1 Cant desert him after his place last week. Still really good value at 70/1. Smylie Kaufman 100/1 Picked up his maiden PGA Tour event at the Shriners in October and is looking good again. Should give us a good run for our money Ryan Ruffels 500/1 This is a bit of a punt but the 17 year old Aussie has been making a few waves. Have had good runs with long shots recently so why not? Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Booom Again as Snedeker takes this one down at a tidy 18/1.
So two winners this week at 8/1 & 18/1 plus a second at 40/1.
Well done (AGAIN) Steve. Kicking my rear!! I'm just continuously hitting the cross-bar so far this year. Had Snedeker for lumps last time out and loses a play off, wins next time. I was on Bella this week ew, though he never looked like winning tbh. Holmes came 6th, I chose NOT to use paddy who were paying 7 places, instead I chased the extra 10 points. The only crumb of comfort was I did use paddy for the cross-doubles, so I got a 33/1 + 40/1 placed double.
In Europe I'm completely ignoring Rory this week. If he wins so be it. At 9/4 I can't justify lumping on, especially now that they've cut the fairways tee-green (normally green-tee). U might think that makes no difference, but it does. It means when the ball lands on the fairway with the grain it keeps bouncing on and on.... Making it a short and narrow course this week. The fairways are already firerey and the ball has been going into the rough before stopping. Rory has struggled in practise. So it's not the course he's the master of. Of course he's the most likely winner still, but value? No not this week.
With the above in mind, I'm betting on the without Rory market and taking a few less points..
The selections are:-
Weisberger ew 25/1
Olesen ew 25/1
Rock ew 50/1
Canizeres ew 90/1
And as Canizeres is 1st to tee off on Thursday morning I've had a speculative ew punt on him for FRL ew @ 100/1.
Edit:- Wrong Canizeres, mine tees off in the afternoon. I've backed the right man, but he's now teeing off in the wind and not at the crack of dawn!!! Grrrrr
In the USA it's a much easier decision. It's Blubba Watson. I've still not forgiven him for not winning this last year, but he's by far the most likely winner this week. The wide generous fairways, and 100k + drunken crowds that come to this event are tailor made for the show man that is Blubba. Big ew punt @ 11/1.
For back up I suggest Martin Laird ew @ 66/1 and Brandon Steele ew @ 45/1.
Those prices are all Paddy prices because they are paying top SEVEN ew!!!!!
Not really feeling it this week and little time for studying.
Probably just as well, as usually after a good week I'm fighting the urge to back half the field!
Dubai
I think the Rory factor this week, means you are better off betting without Rory, especially if you think Rory is assured of a top 5, meaning you will be assured of 6 places on ew.
I picked out Alexnader Noren 66/1 without Rory early on.
Plenty of others with recent good results in the desert and past even form Bello, Rock, Stenson, Olesen, Wiesberger, Sullivan, An, Coetzze, to name just a few.
With not being able to put the time in to find a reason for crossing players off my list, I'll probably just back a couple of personal favs for interests sake.
Phoenix
Same scenario for me here, on the surface, there must be at least 20 players with strong consistent course form and I just don't have the time to come up with a 'logical' reason to rule them out.
So I'm going with the initial gut feeling Kevin Na 33/1, he's been playing very well and is one of the many with good course form.
Harris English 80/1 6 places and 100/1 5 places, is going to get my backing after a very impressive one over par final round at Torrey Pines, though rightly overshadowed by Brandt Snedeker who we know shot the round of the year, with a 3 under score.
Again I'll add a couple of my personal favs to cheer along through to the back nine on Sunday
Apologies for interupting but there is a free to enter competition to be found in the Betting Chat section of the forum on a thread called Sky Naps Table 2016.
It starts on Saturday and the closing date is 12pm on Friday. All the details are on the thread but there are £100 of free bets from Sky Bet up for grabs and for qualifying players there is a free £200 Poker freeroll at the end of the competition.
An open betting event here with Bubba top of the market at 11/1 with Fowler, Snedeker, Koepka & Matsuyama next in line. Not really getting a big feel for this event so a few small bets, I think.
JB Holmes 28/1
Should be suited by the course with his big drives. Has won here twice before and is in form with a very creditable Tied 6th last week.
Kevin Na 33/1
Four Top Five finishes on this course plus four top three finishes in his last six starts mark Na out as a clear contender here.
Ryan Palmer 33/1
Tied second here last year. A big hitter, ideally suited by this course appears to coming into form.
Martin Laird 66/1
A Scottsdale resident now so playing at home. Previously 3rd & 5th here on a course ideally suited for him. He was 8th last week so is in form. He is also first on the tee tonight so should get the best of conditions.
Did FRL bets on Pieters, RCB & Noren in Dubai and woke up to RCB & Noren already in the Top Ten after bright starts. Pieters opening nine killed him.
Phoenix Open An open betting event here with Bubba top of the market at 11/1 with Fowler, Snedeker, Koepka & Matsuyama next in line. Not really getting a big feel for this event so a few small bets, I think. JB Holmes 28/1 Should be suited by the course with his big drives. Has won here twice before and is in form with a very creditable Tied 6th last week. Kevin Na 33/1 Four Top Five finishes on this course plus four top three finishes in his last six starts mark Na out as a clear contender here. Ryan Palmer 33/1 Tied second here last year. A big hitter, ideally suited by this course appears to coming into form. Martin Laird 66/1 A Scottsdale resident now so playing at home. Previously 3rd & 5th here on a course ideally suited for him. He was 8th last week so is in form. He is also first on the tee tonight so should get the best of conditions. Did FRL bets on Pieters, RCB & Noren in Dubai and woke up to RCB & Noren already in the Top Ten after bright starts. Pieters opening nine killed him. Posted by Ice_Tiger
You and me both Mr. Tiger, nice feeling when you are free rolling for the rest of the tournament
In early this week in Europe, ok Africa... Tshwane Open:-
It's a weak event and defending champ and local resident Coatzee is by far the most likely winner (on him last year in this). At 7-8/1 I'm win only on him. I like Porteous best from the mid priced bracket 30/1. And 2 outsiders I like are Norris 66/1 (won in Asia last week) and De Silva 125/1 good course form. These 3 all ew bets.
Yes, last week I spend a lot less time than usual studying and end up with one of my best weeks, less obviously can be more, as I managed a 50/1 winner and 33/1 second in the FRL, my favorite golfer wins in Dubai at 28/1 and I manage a 100/1 third at the Phoenix.
Tshwane Open
Agree that Coetzee is most likely winner but I spent my money elsewhere looking for alternatives....
Trevor Fisher Jr, 22/1 - Last year he went into the last round tied with Coetzee, but having won the week before it looked as if Fisher was running on empty, eventually finishing 10 shots behind George. Decent form in the desert finished tied 26th with Coetzee last week, at 22/1 or 20/1 just about represents ew value
Staying local for other 2 picks:
Dean Burmester 33/1, 3rd last year, multiple winner on Sunshine Tour
Zander Lombard 40/1, 2nd, 12th and 4th in last 3 european tour events
Mention for Matthew Baldwin 200/1 on his way back from injury, despite a final round 76 still managed tied 26th in Abu Dhabi against a much higher quality field, not saying he will win but that price is too big, 5/1 top 20, 16/1 top 10 could be interesting but I am liking 28/1 top Englishman 4 places or top GB and Ireland 35/1 4 places.
Plenty of talent with winning records around here, but in search of a little ew value I'm going back to JB Holmes 28/1 solid recent and event form.
Next Shane Lowry 40/1, rarely has a bad tournament on links / coastal courses and good results over the last two weeks.
Matt Jones80/1, always looks comfortable by the sea, he had some of his better results when he was an also ran most weeks on tour. Now an established winner and recent victor over Jordan Spieth, he looks good value this week.
The quality at the head of the field threatens to spoil the ew chances this week, but a couple of big prices with course form but not the obvious quality of others
In the USA... This event lends itself to multi winners... Mickelson (4) DJ (2) Davis-Love (2) Snedeker (2).... It's maybe time for Jimmy Walker to have a (2) next to his name. He played as well as anyone before Snedekers freak round in the wind the other week. Most of his wins come between December and March... I'm happy to be mainly just with him this week, as there's a few at the top of the market that could easily win this. Walker is 18/1 with paddy, AGAIN top 7!!! Must back him with paddy. One other small bet I've had is Pat Perez, 200/1 with Corals and Betvictor. He's got no recent form, but loves this event, playing to the galleries in the pro-am format, 4th and 7th the past 2 years.
Comments
Anyone that follows the golf knows that Rafa Cabrera-Bello just can't be trusted to keep it together on the final day. This week on paper at least he looks to have probably the best credentials to win this, but in a field where you can make strong cases for a dozen or so others, past painful experiences mean Mr. Bello doesn't make my final cut for an outright bet.
I will however chance my arm at 33/1 for first round Leader.
So on to the players that did make the final cut....
Thomas Pieters 20/1, very impressive last week, on that basis he seems to be ready to add to his two wins from last season. Course will suit and should be able to handle predicted windy conditions.
Eddie Pepperill 66/1, first player in the portfolio this week. he ticks so many of the right boxes, this could be the week for his first win on tour. As a backup 12/1 top Englishman looks decent.
Richie Ramsay 80/1, has dark horse credentials, played well under the radar last week, no real course form here but this is the first time he comes here in some kind of current form the conditions and set up should play to his strengths.
Peter Hanson 40/1, after missing the places by one shot at 150/1 last week, I see no reason to give up on him this week in a weaker field. 18/1 top continental also looks interesting to me.
Kristoffer Broberg 66/1, eye catching tie for low round of the day last Sunday, he's always faired marginally better at Qatar in the Desert Swing. Has form in the wind, looks decent value for someone who won the second to last event of the 2015 season.
Finally, small ew on Matthew Baldwin 200/1 outright, but double the stake at 150/1 for first round leader, playing in first group of the day.
Brandt Snedeker - 18/1, Sticking with in form Sneds 18/1. He also has very strong course form to match, with a win and two runners up finishes here.
Then spreading the love a little on a few players further down the field.
Graham Delaet 50/1, never really got going last week, but he's gone on record as saying this is one of his favourite events. He tends to be a bit of a horses for courses player and was 2nd and 9th in last two appearances here.
JB Holmes 50/1, lost in playoff last year. This week is ideal for JB so hopeful of another good performance.
Hunter Mahan 80/1, tentative pick here. Another player with decent course form and a player who has declared his liking for these courses and thus event. First time out this year, so you are never quite sure what you are going to get.
Shane Lowry 100/1, hooked me on Lowry with his generous 100/1 as much as anything else, though don't under estimate he 7th place last year. He blew the cobwebs away at the Eurasia cup two weeks ago and could well be in for a good week at a big price.
Probably just as well, as usually after a good week I'm fighting the urge to back half the field!
Dubai
I think the Rory factor this week, means you are better off betting without Rory, especially if you think Rory is assured of a top 5, meaning you will be assured of 6 places on ew.
I picked out Alexnader Noren 66/1 without Rory early on.
Plenty of others with recent good results in the desert and past even form Bello, Rock, Stenson, Olesen, Wiesberger, Sullivan, An, Coetzze, to name just a few.
With not being able to put the time in to find a reason for crossing players off my list, I'll probably just back a couple of personal favs for interests sake.
Phoenix
Same scenario for me here, on the surface, there must be at least 20 players with strong consistent course form and I just don't have the time to come up with a 'logical' reason to rule them out.
So I'm going with the initial gut feeling Kevin Na 33/1, he's been playing very well and is one of the many with good course form.
Harris English 80/1 6 places and 100/1 5 places, is going to get my backing after a very impressive one over par final round at Torrey Pines, though rightly overshadowed by Brandt Snedeker who we know shot the round of the year, with a 3 under score.
Again I'll add a couple of my personal favs to cheer along through to the back nine on Sunday
Good Luck All
Yes, last week I spend a lot less time than usual studying and end up with one of my best weeks, less obviously can be more, as I managed a 50/1 winner and 33/1 second in the FRL, my favorite golfer wins in Dubai at 28/1 and I manage a 100/1 third at the Phoenix.
Tshwane Open
Agree that Coetzee is most likely winner but I spent my money elsewhere looking for alternatives....
Trevor Fisher Jr, 22/1 - Last year he went into the last round tied with Coetzee, but having won the week before it looked as if Fisher was running on empty, eventually finishing 10 shots behind George.
Decent form in the desert finished tied 26th with Coetzee last week, at 22/1 or 20/1 just about represents ew value
Staying local for other 2 picks:
Dean Burmester 33/1, 3rd last year, multiple winner on Sunshine Tour
Zander Lombard 40/1, 2nd, 12th and 4th in last 3 european tour events
Mention for Matthew Baldwin 200/1 on his way back from injury, despite a final round 76 still managed tied 26th in Abu Dhabi against a much higher quality field, not saying he will win but that price is too big, 5/1 top 20, 16/1 top 10 could be interesting but I am liking 28/1 top Englishman 4 places or top GB and Ireland 35/1 4 places.
Plenty of talent with winning records around here, but in search of a little ew value I'm going back to JB Holmes 28/1 solid recent and event form.
Next Shane Lowry 40/1, rarely has a bad tournament on links / coastal courses and good results over the last two weeks.
Matt Jones 80/1, always looks comfortable by the sea, he had some of his better results when he was an also ran most weeks on tour. Now an established winner and recent victor over Jordan Spieth, he looks good value this week.
The quality at the head of the field threatens to spoil the ew chances this week, but a couple of big prices with course form but not the obvious quality of others
Bryce Molder 100/1
Chesson Hadley 250/1
I am officially back in the game this week, done all your bets and and Dean Burm / Fisher double lol...I need to catch up!!